Predictions!

[Bennett]

To me, TEB ladies may be less exciting than other events like SA. But it would be interesting if Rochette challenges Mao.

Men may be more interesting. Chan and Kozuka look like similar in their past placements. Although they are both very famous for their skating skills, Chan was soooooo much higher in his PCS at SC than Kozuka at SA.

I think that Kozuka needs more work on his upper body movements even though he improved a lot since the last season.
His costumes are much better than the ones last year, but still not as beautiful as Chan's.

But I think Take Five is a good program for a skater like Kozuka who is really good at steps. So I hope that Kozuka can get a good PCS at SP.
In contrast, R&J may be too dramatic a music for Kozuka. He's just really calm. But R&J is like a routine music and ppl are too familiar to appreciate anything much anyway. So it may not hurt too much even if he cannot interpret it too well anyway. So I feel that he might be able to get an okay PCS if he lands most of his jumps and his skating flows.

Besides, his Gold at SA may help him with his PCS at TEB.

Still I think that Chan would be perhaps higher at PCS. I wonder how much higher it's gonna be. If Chan receives a comparable PCS to the one he got at SC, it would be difficult for Kozuka to catch up. Even if his PCS increases to some event after the SA win, I do not think that it is going to be Chan's level.

On the other hand, I think that Kozuka is likely to land more difficult jumps than Chan. Although Chan may perhaps be able to afford a couple of mistakes to beat Kozuka, I think that he needs two 3As and two lutzs at least rotated.

All in all, I feel that both have a great chance to beat the other.

Joubert should be able to win if he fills out all the other elements than quads like combos and 3As. Judges love him, too. He got among the highest PCSs at the last Worlds. I think that he only needs an okay performance to win.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

There are several quad jumpers in this event: Joubert, Verner, Abbott, Bradley. I think only Joubert will do one in the SP but only if other(s) do. I presume Joubert will skate last in the SP. After the dust has cleared, look for the most hotly contested event this season in the LP, and Kozuka and Preaubert waiting for a splatfest to podium.

 

[Sylvia]

There are several quad jumpers in this event: Joubert, Verner, Abbott, Bradley.

Brandon Mroz is the other U.S. guy here, not Abbott. Mroz landed his first quad toe (hand down) in his Skate Canada FS.

Preaubert has landed quad toe in competition (last year's TEB, for example).

Verner and Abbott will face off again in Moscow next week.

 

[propronia]

Still I think that Chan would be perhaps higher at PCS. I wonder how much higher it's gonna be. If Chan receives a comparable PCS to the one he got at SC, it would be difficult for Kozuka to catch up. Even if his PCS increases to some event after the SA win, I do not think that it is going to be Chan's level.

I'm pretty sure that won't happen. This is not Canada, you know? France must have some grudges against Canada for Ponsero's stolen medal. I'm cheering for all guys except Chan.

 

[mskater93]

There are several quad jumpers in this event: Joubert, Verner, Abbott, Bradley. I think only Joubert will do one in the SP but only if other(s) do. I presume Joubert will skate last in the SP. After the dust has cleared, look for the most hotly contested event this season in the LP, and Kozuka and Preaubert waiting for a splatfest to podium.

Bradley has 4/3 planned in the SP and landed it wonderfully at SC.

 

[Buttercup]

Still I think that Chan would be perhaps higher at PCS. I wonder how much higher it's gonna be. If Chan receives a comparable PCS to the one he got at SC, it would be difficult for Kozuka to catch up. Even if his PCS increases to some event after the SA win, I do not think that it is going to be Chan's level.

I think Chan was quite lucky with his PCS at SC. It was not a very strong performance, and had the PCS been used properly, the five components would have varied and some would have been much lower. But that's a different discussion... Kozuka was ahead of Chan at Worlds and had higher marks at SA, including a much higher technical score. Since neither skated cleanly, make of that what you will .

I think only Joubert will do one in the SP but only if other(s) do.

Just wrote this in another post, but since this is a different thread... Joubert doesn't just talk about doing quads - he does go for them. I can't remember the last time he didn't try a quad in an SP, including in events when it's far riskier than TEB (e.g. he and Lambiel were the only skaters who tried 4-3s in the SP at Worlds this year). I can't imagine he'll downgrade unless something is wrong.

 

[chuckm]

So I believe your point comes down to that she was overmarked in the PCS at Skate Canada because she was skating on home soil. Well, that's exactly what I don't agree with you. For one, I felt her presentation and performance level WAS that much better at SC than, say, CoR 2007; and two, those PCS were marked accordingly this time. But I won't try to convince you anymore.
And seriously, this is barely a 5 point difference, and she is overmarked?

A 5-point difference in PCS is HUGE. If at SC 2008, Joannie had far surpassed any previous performance to date (i.e, perfectly clean with at least one 3/3 and +GOE on all her elements) then perhaps a huge PCS boost would be warranted. But as I pointed out in an earlier post, Joannie's CoR 2007 FS was cleaner, and there was no significant technical upgrade in her SC 2008 FS.

What Joannie fans seem to be suggesting is that Joannie should get PCS scores as high as World medalists and World Champions simply because she is Joannie Rochette, and therefore she doesn't need to perform at the same technical level as the top ladies.

Dance:
1. Delobel/Schoenfelder
2. Crone/Poirier
3. The Kerrs
4. Faiella/Scali

Maybe in an alternative universe, but not in the real world.

I like Crone/Poirier, but the judges aren't going to place recent Junior graduates ahead of Words 2008 top eight teams. Samuelson/Bates scored 175.66 on home ice at Skate America and couldn't beat the Kerrs.

How do you figure that C/P, who scored a total 162.13 on home ice at SC are going to beat the Kerrs, who scored over 180 at SA (despite a big mistake in the FS), never mind Faiella/Scali who scored over 200 at Worlds?

 

[museksk8r]

^^^

If Joannie fans want to believe that her PCS were deserved, they have that right! The judges awarded her those marks; it wasn't a fan judged competition.

If Crone/Poirier fans want to predict that they will finish 2nd at TEBC, they have that right too! Get a grip!

It's just your usual tired Canadian hate brigade and don't try to backtrack by saying you don't do that because you definitely do have a history of trashing all Canadian skaters. Anyone who has spent any time on this board knows that!

 

[dorispulaski]

You've got to admit that it is not very likely that Crone Poirier will finish ahead of either F&S or the Kerrs. It's possible. One or both teams could fall apart as thoroughly as P&B did at SC. But it's not likely.

As a friend of mine used to say, "The race is not always to the swift....but that's how the smart money is betting."

 

[chuckm]

^^^

If Joannie fans want to believe that her PCS were deserved, they have that right! The judges awarded her those marks; it wasn't a fan judged competition.

If Crone/Poirier fans want to predict that they will finish 2nd at TEBC, they have that right too! Get a grip!

It's just your usual tired Canadian hate brigade and don't try to backtrack by saying you don't do that because you definitely do have a history of trashing all Canadian skaters. Anyone who has spent any time on this board knows that!

There's no hate in what I have to say. My remarks are a reaction to the extravagant hyperbole I read on this board about certain skaters. It is somewhat amusing that Canadian fans take any kind of attempts to introduce a bit of reality into the conversation as anti-Canadian smears.

I read all the negativity about the US skaters on this and other boards and take it from whence it comes. I don't get my drawers in a knot because people think Zhang is slow and technically inept, or that the US ladies will be down to one at Vancouver, or that no US man is podium-worthy.

Sure, Canadian fans have a right to their opinions. But I have a right to my opinions as well, without being called names or labelled a hater.

 

[shine]

A 5-point difference in PCS is HUGE. If at SC 2008, Joannie had far surpassed any previous performance to date (i.e, perfectly clean with at least one 3/3 and +GOE on all her elements) then perhaps a huge PCS boost would be warranted. But as I pointed out in an earlier post, Joannie's CoR 2007 FS was cleaner, and there was no significant technical upgrade in her SC 2008 FS.

What Joannie fans seem to be suggesting is that Joannie should get PCS scores as high as World medalists and World Champions simply because she is Joannie Rochette, and therefore she doesn't need to perform at the same technical level as the top ladies.

Since WHEN was PCS supposed to be based on jump content???? I'm sorry, 3-3's and GOEs are part of the techinical score, and always have been. And a skater should be able to get the PCS if they deserve them REGARDLESS of the jumps they land, PERIOD.
And will you stop making everything argued seem like a Canadian-centric opinion? I am a Canadian citizen, but there are only a few Canadian skaters that I actually care for and more that I couldn't care less about. I don't know in what alternate universe you are in where Canadian skaters only have Canadian fans.

 

[fumie_fumie]

There's no hate in what I have to say. My remarks are a reaction to the extravagant hyperbole I read on this board about certain skaters. It is somewhat amusing that Canadian fans take any kind of attempts to introduce a bit of reality into the conversation as anti-Canadian smears.

I read all the negativity about the US skaters on this and other boards and take it from whence it comes. I don't get my drawers in a knot because people think Zhang is slow and technically inept, or that the US ladies will be down to one at Vancouver, or that no US man is podium-worthy.

Sure, Canadian fans have a right to their opinions. But I have a right to my opinions as well, without being called names or labelled a hater.

For your reference, I don't think museksk8r is Canadian. He/She is a citizen of the world, who loves good skating and rises above any nationality, and vigorously defends the skaters he/she loves. In fact, there are not many Canadian posters on this forum.

People who've said US ladies will be down to one at Vancouver are, I believe, actually overly concerned Americans. Canadian posters talked about Zhang a bit, because they've seen her first hand or on TV at SC.

Please don't tie Canadian posters to all this.

 

[chuckm]

Since WHEN was PCS supposed to be based on jump content???? I'm sorry, 3-3's and GOEs are part of the techinical score, and always have been. And a skater should be able to get the PCS if they deserve them REGARDLESS of the jumps they land, PERIOD.
And will you stop making everything argued seem like a Canadian-centric opinion? I am a Canadian citizen, but there are only a few Canadian skaters that I actually care ful and more that I couldn't care less about.

Whether you like it or not, SKATING SKILLS tends to drive all the other PCS scores. And skaters who can demonstrate command of a wide variety of elements are obviously going to have higher SS scores, and the other components will follow.

I said nothing to indicate 'Canadian-centricity'---that is what you inferred. My post (the one to which you replied) spoke of JOANNIE FANS, who are not necessarily Canadian. I know many Joannie fans, in fact, who are not Canadian.

 

[shine]

Sorry, I don't see how adding another triple jump to your first triple makes you skating skills dramatically better. How is that demonstrating a "wide variety of elements" again? If you have a 3-3, your variety or elements is all of a sudden better?

 

[Kinga]

Since WHEN was PCS supposed to be based on jump content???? I'm sorry, 3-3's and GOEs are part of the techinical score, and always have been. And a skater should be able to get the PCS if they deserve them REGARDLESS of the jumps they land, PERIOD.
.

ITA!

What Joannie fans seem to be suggesting is that Joannie should get PCS scores as high as World medalists and World Champions simply because she is Joannie Rochette, and therefore she doesn't need to perform at the same technical level as the top ladies.

No one is suggesting that Joannie should get high PCS marks for granted. I think that many people just noticed that she improved a lot. I would rather see the tendency that Mao and Yuna fans assume that they always should get high PCS, because they are consistent, have high technical content in the programs and WC medals. Unfortunately, neither judges have the understanding what the PCS is.

 

[museksk8r]

chuckm, since when does one's nationality dictate what skaters they are supposed to cheer for? I was born in and currently live in the USA, an American citizen. That doesn't mean I have to trash Canadian skaters in an attempt to try and make American skaters look better. That doesn't make the American skaters look better; it only makes the person doing the trashing look smallminded. Just because you don't see or care to acknowledge Joannie's improvements this season doesn't mean no one else can sing her praises.

Being a figure skating fan is not a declaration of one's patriotism, IMO. I enjoy and cheer for skaters from all around the world, some a lot more than my fellow American skaters. If I see a great non-American skater against a mediocre American skater, I am rooting for the one who I see as great to win the championship.

 

[fiercemao]

Sorry, I don't see how adding another triple jump to your first triple makes you skating skills dramatically better. How is that demonstrating a "wide variety of elements" again? If you have a 3-3, your variety or elements is all of a sudden better?

Of course it does. Are you suggesting judges are going to pass out 7,8 in SS to skaters who can only do double jumps?

 

[shine]

To answer your question, skaters doing double jumps most likely don't have the skating skills to be skating at the elite world level either. Skaters usually balance their development in a range of technical aspects. Just like you wouldn't expect someone to do triple jumps if they can barely skate.
There's always deviation from the norm where you see some that are particularly good at certain elements (spins and jumps in particular), but completely average in their actual skating skills. And therefore, I do not think those elements are good indication of good SKATING SKILLS.

 

[museksk8r]

Of course it does. Are you suggesting judges are going to pass out 7,8 in SS to skaters who can only do double jumps?

So, are you saying you believe Kevin Van Der Perren, Ryan Bradley, and Miki Ando should receive outrageous PCS marks just because they are renowned jumpers? :chorus:

 

[fiercemao]

To answer your question, skaters doing double jumps most likely don't have the skating skills to be skating at the elite world level either. Skaters usually balance their development in a range of technical aspects. Just like you wouldn't expect someone to do triple jumps if they can barely skate.
There's always deviation from the norm where you see some that are particularly good at certain elements (spins and jumps in particular), but completely average in their actual skating skills. And therefore, I do not think those elements are good indication of good SKATING SKILLS.

Your answer is just based on assumptions, not facts. Do you truly believe MK should receive the same high SS when she returns with only double jumps? Skating is not about prancing around with no jumps
Laughable.