Russian Sweep of Olympic Golds Inevitable?

[Frau Muller]

So should every non-Russian fan begin to play the 'funeral march' and swallow their pride? If everyone skates their best in Turin, I cannot imagine another outcome. It's sealed. (Gulp!)

If Irina, Plush, T/M and N/K make major errors, maybe there will be hope for the rest of us. :yes:

 

[slutskayafan21]

You are right, it is a done deal more or less.

 

[Ptichka]

Not necessarily. I don't see Irina as invincible. Last year she had a great season as well, but had a very sub-par performance at Euros. So you never know.

With N&K, it's all political. Any number of teams (including D&V) could beat them.

I do agree though that Plush would have to make major mistakes to not become the champion. T&M, without S&Z, are also the best of the field.

 

[jesslily]

People have to agree that these Russian skaters really show how eager they are to get the golds. They work hard, lucky no injury this year. They may have some weaknesses in certain area, but overall they are still the best out there. Most of all, they just have the confidence.

 

[rain]

I wouldn't say it's inevitable, but it is likely, at this point. I would prefer a few surprises, personally, as the Russians at the top aren't necessarily my favorite skaters, or even who I think deserve the win.

For one, I think Navka/Kostomorov are overrated in dance and should be challenged by other teams that are just as good. That, however, is unlikely to happen I think. It will be smooth sailing to the gold for them. It makes it even easier for the judges to ensure this with Belbin/ Augosto likely not going.

Likewise in pairs I find Tot/Mar overrated. Not that I much like any of the top teams this year, but T/M have a distinct weakness of lifts and death spirals that is never taken into account by the judges. It shouldn't just be S/Z of China that could challenge them.

Slutskaya is another one. It looks, given her GP scores, like she will cruise easily to the gold on the wave of the judge's lifetime acheivement love. I think there are actually many ladies who should be challenging her that the judges are deliberately lowballing.

Plushenko is, right now, the class of the men's field. Others may be able to match him for difficulty on occasion (Sandhu, Lambiel) but they do not have the consistency that Plushenko is able to demonstrate in the high-pressure situations. And like Slutskaya, I think the judges are somewhat over-generous at times with him on things like choreography, where he has never been all that strong. But if I had to guess who would lay it down in Torino, I'd guess Plushenko. I hope Buttle, Sandhu, Lambiel will give him a run for it though.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Right now I personaly feel Slutskaya and Plushenko are clearly the best.

Nobody has done a peformance since the 2003-04 season atleast that can even challenge the performances Slutskaya has done at almost every event in that last 2 years, COC last year, COR last year, COC this year, COR this year, Worlds free program last year. Cohen has not done a performance strong enough to challenge what Slutskaya is regularly putting out, at any event in the last two years. Kwan certainly has not. Ando is not strong enough in areas outside jumps to challenge Slutskaya, and if anything Slutskaya trumps her even on jumps these days, Ando still a great jumper but below her 2004 level in jumps IMO, and Slutskaya jumping better than ever. Arakawa is skating better this year but still not yet at the level to challenge Irina. Poykio, Liashenko, Kostner, Suguri, Sokolova, Csizny, Meissner, Nakano, Rochette, not even close. The only person who might be skating at a level to challenge Slutskaya anytime in the last 2 years is Asada, who is ineligable for the Olympics. The judges arent lowballing anybody, Irina was held up in the Europeans long program, and to a lesser extent in Worlds short program, but other than that she has dominated the other women through and through.

Among the men Plushenko may get generous choreography and interpretation scores, and skaters like Lambiel and Buttle are totally robbed on spin scores, but even with that Plushenko would be in a league of his own right now. His great basic skating, his command of the ice, his jumping quality, his consistency, his on-ice flair, set him apart from the inconsistent jumpers trying to chase him right now. Lambiel needs to start doing triple axels cleanly, not stumble slightly out of triple or quad attempts, and start doing level 4 spins that the such a great spinner should be doing rather than ridiculous level 2 spins. Buttle has a long way to go jumps-wise, he needs a solid quad, and he does not even have a shaky quad now, his other jumps are more inconsistent than last year. Sandhu has bombed the short program at almost every event since doing it at the 2004 Worlds, he needs to start doing rock-solid shorts to even start making the progress he needs to come close to Plushenko. Weir has a long way to come back to even reach his 2005 level right now. Lysacek, Lindemann, Joubert, dont even come close now. Takahashi and Oda arent ready to take on somebody like Plushenko yet.

I agree that Totmianina/Marinin are overrated. Their lifts are far overscored, and the level 4s for them are a joke. Their PCS are inflated considering the lack of emotion, relating to each other on the ice, relating to the music they are skating to. Pang/Tong, Savchenko/Szowkowlsky, and Petrova/Tikhonov should be able to challenge them if they are not at their very best(which they were not at COC for example)but the judges probably wont allow this.

Navka/Kostamarov I have no problem with being on top. They are a beautiful team with wonderful lines, unision, edges, technique, interaction between the two, and sense of drama, on the ice. Belbin/Agosto probably wont go anyway, they probably should be closer with the judges than they are if they were able to go, but it probably wont matter. The other teams are not at the level to challenge them. Denkoyva/Stayvinski make things like sloppy too often, Grushina/Goncharov are slower and their basic technique is not as good IMO,.

 

[BronzeisGolden]

I think N&K, T&M (without a healthy S&Z to contend with), and Plushenko are almost locks for Gold medals. They would have to make several major errors to lose. I'm not so sure about Irina. She has been so impressive thus far, but as Ptichka said....she generally has at least one sub-par performance per season. I'm still not convinced she has the Gold in the bag. She will face stiff competition that is capable of anything.....Sasha, Shizuka...and a mysterious Michelle. Irina still has to show up and perform with the enormous weight of heavy Olympic favorite on her shoulders. No one can know for sure what will happen with so many factors involved.

 

[Ptichka]

Pang/Tong, Savchenko/Szowkowlsky, and Petrova/Tikhonov should be able to challenge them if they are not at their very best(which they were not at COC for example)but the judges probably wont allow this.

Sav & Scowk will likely not be at the Olympics - she isn't a citizen.

 

[Serena]

I think that unless they withdraw, N/K can lay there on the ice for their entire programs and win. I think they're overrated as well.

I think whether T/M wins depends on S/Z. If they show up and are in good condition, they're the only team (unless T/M completely meltdown) that can beat T/M.

I think if Irina and Plushenko mess up badly enough, it should be open for their competitors. The thing is, the Olympics have a habit of causing bad cases of nerves- even in consistent skaters. I think the Russians will sweep, but the only foolproof bet (not counting withdrawal) is N/K.

 

[Vash01]

It is possible, but very improbable for one nation to win gold in all 4 disciplines. Anything can happen. I don't see Irina or N&K as sure bets. Irina will face tough challenges from other skaters and there is no guarantee she will skate great. Sasha and Shizuka can both beat her, and if she has a subpar skate in the LP, a few others may have a chance too (Miki, Michelle, Joannie).

N&K can be beaten by B&A if they make it to the Olys. Barring a fall, N&K are likely to win. Kostomarov has had a few falls or at least major mistakes in the past.

Plushenko has at least 4 serious challengers- Lambiel, Joubert, Buttle, Sandhu, and possibly Weir. Any mistake will be costly.

T&M have serious challenges from the Chinese, particularly if S&Z make it to the Olys, but more likely the Zhangs will really challenge them in the technical marks and could upset them.

I don't believe in the inevitability of someone winning. Only death is inevitable (we may see a day when taxes won't be... LOL).

Vash

 

[havanamesa1]

I don't believe in the inevitability of someone winning. Only death is inevitable (we may see a day when taxes won't be... LOL).

Vash

Irina's win is inevitable. Even death will be scared of her Biellmanns. She'll cruise right through; she can definitely handle the Olympic pressure.

 

[Mafke]

My take (with the caveat that I'm starting to hate the festival of corruption, belligerent nationalism and drug abuse formerly known as the olympics, so let's pretend this is world's instead).

Pairs: Tot/Mar have the technical chops but are as cold as the ice they skate on, barring disaster they'll win unless Shen/Zhao can make it and his health holds out. Remember a lot of the criticism of S/Z (before 2003) not skating as a pair? That's what I've always felt about T/M (and I've yet to see them do a decent death spiral). I'm not so crazy about Obertas/Whoevershe'sskatingwithnow The Russian team I like is the underrated, unloved Petrova/Tikhonov as they best eximplify the pairs' ideal in timing and absolute confidence in each other. I don't have any special feeling about the other Chinese teams.

Men: Plushenko is the best jumper, is fast as the dickens and skates as if he thought it was a plausible way to take over the world. But I'm mostly bored watching him (I feel like Winston Smith at a Big Brother rally) especially by his footwork and spins (and especially his gruesome attempt at a Biellman, brrrrrrrrr). My favorite Russian skater is Klimkin who's always interesting to watch but I''m afraid he may be past his competitive peak (please, let me be wrong). If Plushenko is off form (always possible) Lambiel (or someone esle if he has a good day) might have a chance. The thing to watch for is if he misses one of his first jumping passes as he has a history (okay, twice) of chucking his program and wasting a lot of time stalking jumps then and that could be deadly under.

Women: Slutskaya is the Yamaguchi of 1991-92 (the judges love what she's good at don't care about things she's not so good at) I think it's more the luck of the draw than any conspiracy. But although she's been tearing up the ice for the last year or so, I'd say she's the least sure bet. She has unpredictable health problems and a poor mental game (comparitively speaking). Her best LP's come when she's feeling less pressure. When she has to really do her best to win she has a tendency to be tentative or stiffen up (worlds 2000, 2001, SLC). I'd say this will be decided by the SP (where's she's usually a lot more consistent thant the LP). If she has a really big margin going into the LP then I can't see her not winning. If she has a late draw in the LP and there are some really good performances before her, then there could be an upset (Arakawa, Cohen, Kwan are the most likely suspects, in roughly that order).

 

[boggartlaura]

Likewise in pairs I find Tot/Mar overrated. Not that I much like any of the top teams this year, but T/M have a distinct weakness of lifts and death spirals that is never taken into account by the judges..

Unfortunately, all of the top teams except Petrova/Tikhonov and Zagorska/Sieudek (if you can't them), have weak lifts. The same goes for death spirals.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It certainly wouldn't come as a surprise if the 4 disciplines are won by Russian singles and teams. It appears to me that the Russian ethic in striving to be a winner is much stronger than that in other countries. Their total study of the Sport shows up well in their technique especially in Dance and Pairs. They dominate the Technical Score in all 4 disciplines.

It is this intense attention to the Technical which I find makes the Russian skaters pretty much look alike. I don't find a variety of styles among them in general, but that will not affect their scores and I see gold Oly medals for them.

Joe

 

[Tiana]

Women: Slutskaya is the Yamaguchi of 1991-92 (the judges love what she's good at don't care about things she's not so good at) I think it's more the luck of the draw than any conspiracy. But although she's been tearing up the ice for the last year or so, I'd say she's the least sure bet. She has unpredictable health problems and a poor mental game (comparitively speaking). Her best LP's come when she's feeling less pressure. When she has to really do her best to win she has a tendency to be tentative or stiffen up (worlds 2000, 2001, SLC). I'd say this will be decided by the SP (where's she's usually a lot more consistent thant the LP). If she has a really big margin going into the LP then I can't see her not winning. If she has a late draw in the LP and there are some really good performances before her, then there could be an upset (Arakawa, Cohen, Kwan are the most likely suspects, in roughly that order).

Actualy Irina's best LP was at Worlds 2005 and there she had bigest pressure of her life...

 

[R.D.]

I concur. She handled it very well. She and MK are pros when it comes to handling major pressure. I've never seen either of these skaters melt down under intense pressure, and I give them high credit for that. (I'm talking a SERIOUS meltdown, not just a fall or stumble).

 

[SkateFan4Life]

So should every non-Russian fan begin to play the 'funeral march' and swallow their pride? If everyone skates their best in Turin, I cannot imagine another outcome. It's sealed. (Gulp!)

If Irina, Plush, T/M and N/K make major errors, maybe there will be hope for the rest of us. :yes:

ITA, Frau Miller. In fact, I was going to start a thread on this - "The Russians Will Sweep the Gold at Torino" - but you've beaten me to it.

Let's fact it, guys. Unless illness and/or disaster strike these skaters, they will sweep the gold medals. Everyone else will be competing for silver and bronze.

 

[Vash01]

Pairs: Tot/Mar have the technical chops but are as cold as the ice they skate on, barring disaster they'll win unless Shen/Zhao can make it and his health holds out. Remember a lot of the criticism of S/Z (before 2003) not skating as a pair? That's what I've always felt about T/M (and I've yet to see them do a decent death spiral). I'm not so crazy about Obertas/Whoevershe'sskatingwithnow The Russian team I like is the underrated, unloved Petrova/Tikhonov as they best eximplify the pairs' ideal in timing and absolute confidence in each other. I don't have any special feeling about the other Chinese teams.

Men: Plushenko is the best jumper, is fast as the dickens and skates as if he thought it was a plausible way to take over the world. But I'm mostly bored watching him (I feel like Winston Smith at a Big Brother rally) especially by his footwork and spins (and especially his gruesome attempt at a Biellman, brrrrrrrrr). My favorite Russian skater is Klimkin who's always interesting to watch but I''m afraid he may be past his competitive peak (please, let me be wrong). If Plushenko is off form (always possible) Lambiel (or someone esle if he has a good day) might have a chance. The thing to watch for is if he misses one of his first jumping passes as he has a history (okay, twice) of chucking his program and wasting a lot of time stalking jumps then and that could be deadly under.

Women: Slutskaya is the Yamaguchi of 1991-92 (the judges love what she's good at don't care about things she's not so good at) I think it's more the luck of the draw than any conspiracy. But although she's been tearing up the ice for the last year or so, I'd say she's the least sure bet. She has unpredictable health problems and a poor mental game (comparitively speaking). Her best LP's come when she's feeling less pressure. When she has to really do her best to win she has a tendency to be tentative or stiffen up (worlds 2000, 2001, SLC). I'd say this will be decided by the SP (where's she's usually a lot more consistent thant the LP). If she has a really big margin going into the LP then I can't see her not winning. If she has a late draw in the LP and there are some really good performances before her, then there could be an upset (Arakawa, Cohen, Kwan are the most likely suspects, in roughly that order).

The Irina we have seen since last year is not the Irina we saw at worlds 2000, 2001, and Oly 2002. She is much stronger mentally. Life's challenges have changed her perspective and that is reflected in the way she is skating. She does not seem to feel the pressure of getting a medal now. Her health may be her biggest problem. I think Cohen (extensions, extensions, extensions- can hide her flaws) has the best chance of beating her, then Michelle (strong mind), and then Arakawa (strong program, weak mind, weak in the judges' minds).

T&M have weak lifts but everything else is good. (What is so bad about their death spirals?) I hold my breath every time they get into a lift. I am sure they have not completely erased the memory of the fall at SA last year. They are lacking the lyrical quality seen in the past great Russian pairs, but right now they may be the best pair. I like Petrova-Tikhonov a lot- they are more like a pair than any other pair right now. Obertas & Slavnov are still developing. I don't expect a medal for them. The Zhangs are likely to challenge T&M more than perhaps S&Z (we don't know what they are capable of right now).

Plushenko is either loved or hated. I am never bored by his programs, and he is a superb technician and great entertainer. He is beatable though, and I think Lambiel has the best chance. After injuries Klimkin may not be the skater we rememer him to be, and he was never consistent even when he was healthy. In competitions consistency matters. I think it's going to be Plushy and Griazev in the Olys for Russia.

Vash

 

[Mafke]

Actualy Irina's best LP was at Worlds 2005 and there she had bigest pressure of her life...

Really, she won the highest score in the QR and won the LP ahead of Cohen and skated after a beatable LP by Cohen (actually I don't remember Cohen's LP at all but I'm assuming it wasn't clean). True, skating in front of a home crowd was added pressure, but on the other hand, she also skates better when the crowd is really behind her (witness 2003 Euros).
I'd clarify what I wrote earlier with two points:
1. Of course she handles pressure better than 99 % of elite eligible skaters, I meant that historically she has a weaker mental game than most multiple world champions, like say Witt or Yamaguchi. (Kwan's mental game has its ups and downs too for very different reasons and Cohen's is still a mess, comparitively speaking).
2. In the past, more often than not, the more room for error Slutskaya's had in the LP the better she's skated, and from what I remember, last year's Worlds fit that pattern. It may be true that she's more confident now. COP fits her like a glove (no more need for choreography or restraint) and her personal problems (which she's handled extremely well) may have given her some perspective, so that she puts less pressure on herself and skates for the moment.

If she is handling the pressure of skating after a great performance and having to top it to win (which she hasn't had to do since SLC) then I still think she's the least sure thing since her health problems are the kind that can make unexpected returns (and somebody suggested there may be some site related issues inTurin?).

 

[Mafke]

...T&M have weak lifts but everything else is good. (What is so bad about their death spirals?) I hold my breath every time they get into a lift. I am sure they have not completely erased the memory of the fall at SA last year. They are lacking the lyrical quality seen in the past great Russian pairs, but right now they may be the best pair. I like Petrova-Tikhonov a lot- they are more like a pair than any other pair right now. ...
Plushenko is either loved or hated. I am never bored by his programs, and he is a superb technician and great entertainer. ... After injuries Klimkin may not be the skater we rememer him to be, and he was never consistent even when he was healthy. In competitions consistency matters. I think it's going to be Plushy and Griazev in the Olys for Russia.
Vash

Basically she breaks her line by lifting her head as far away from the ice as possible (often nervously glancing toward it as if she were afraid of ice sharks lurking beneath the surface). What I remember most about their lifts were the ugly contortionist positions she'd get into. I love love, love, love the dismount where he seems to put her down with one hand (did I mention I love that?).
Strangely despite the media hype about her SA fall, they haven't gained in charisma ... (I was expecting some kind of change, I don't know what, but something).
I totally agree about P/T the pairiest pair of all the pairs out there at present. My special favorites are the Czech pair, I never expect them to medal but I enjoy them more than many teams that do.
Plushenko is a great jump technician (and I loved the 3ax into a 3flip, sick and twisted and amazing) but his footwork is bleh (waving your arms furiously shouldn't cover up basic steps) and his spins are kind of so-so (and I hate his grotesque parody of the biellman). Even if he's inconsistent I rather watch a flawed performance by Klimkin (who's almost always doing something interesting) than a perfect skate by Plushenko. Griazev just seems really unfinished (in many senses of that word) to me.