Split thread - Grand Prix Picks discussion

[Kasey]

I noticed last year that the only cases where skaters did competitions back-to-back was when skaters got 2nd events due to a withdrawal. Apparently the ISU has guidelines which discourage assigning skaters to consecutive events.

If that's a policy, it's a newer one. I remember a few years ago, quite a few skaters from Skate Canada then having to make the trek to Cup of China just a few days later. I remember thinking how much that would suck, the longest travel distance of all and 2 competitions within a week.

 

[chuckm]

I don't know if it's an official policy, but that's what I noticed last year when the initial assignments came out. Some close-together assignments wouldn't be so bad (SA and SC, or TEB and CoR), but SC-CoC, CoC-TEB and CoR-NHK would be rough.

Didn't the ISU establish a position of athlete delegate? I think input from athletes may have encouraged the ISU to be more cognizant of athlete's concerns in relation to GP assignments.

 

[nadster]

I forgot about that! That change everything.

Johnny Weir always asked USFS not to assign him to Skate America, giving as the reason that he preferred not to skate so early in the season.

But with Cup of Russia in October and Skate America in November this year, he might end up at Skate America after all.

Actually for 2008 the GP's will happen in the same order as 2007. It is in 2009 when the GP order changes.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

When we get the Skaters assigned to their GPs, we must wait at least a month to understand the ensuing withdrawals. There are usually many.

Joe

 

[chuckm]

When we get the Skaters assigned to their GPs, we must wait at least a month to understand the ensuing withdrawals. There are usually many.

Joe

Last year, here were the first withdrawals:
July:
Namiotka/Coughlin (split)
Lefebvre/Markov (retired)
August:
Nobunari ODA (suspended)
Putnam/Wirtz (injured, later split)
Denkova/Staviiski (accident in Bulgaria)
Joanne Carter (retired)
Nari Nam/Leftheris (injury and surgery)

There were 11 withdrawals in September, and 17 in October.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

On that last point, I am not at all sure that a skater's long-term interest is best served by trying to water down the competition. If I were, for instance, Rachael Flatt, I might say: "Bring 'em on! Mao, Yu-na, Mirai, Caroline Z, Kimmie -- if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best."

I don't think skaters can pick and choose events. They may have some influence through their Feds, but it's the Feds who have the say when their turn comes to picking skaters or offering skaters. And they too are limited.

I like your Gung Ho expression of Rachael, I think she is that kind of sportswoman. However, when we get the assignments, playing around with predictions will be easy once we see who's in what. Emily v. Julia? We made a mistake, and in those days the previous World's podium was divied out the way it is now.

Joe

I would expect that some of the younger skaters listed above will be assigned to JGP rather than GP. Only pairs are allowed to do both.



I'm not sure what you mean by "6 possibilities."

Suppose on the one hand that three different skaters win gold at both their events. They will all be guaranteed to qualify for the final, and they have taken all the gold medals available. The other three skaters who qualify may each have some combination of silver and bronze medals, or at least one of them may actually qualify with silver at one event and fourth or fifth at another, if the additional available medals are distributed among many different skaters all with fairly inconsistent results.

Suppose on the other hand that the six different events are won by six different skaters. Will those be the six who qualify for the final? Maybe. Or maybe at least one of the winners will have to withdraw from the second event, "wasting" a gold medal in terms of GPF qualification so that someone will have to qualify with no gold . . . and there may be no one who won two silvers either. Or maybe one of the winners will skate badly at the other event and place low enough that someone else with a second and fourth or two thirds will earn more points.

I agree with your permutations (I think that's the word). I didn't work them out mathematically but just how I saw last year's results. Sorry about that. Gold, Silver and Bronze all gobbled up will be considered with other places. But let's see if that happens this year. Last year Ando was the weaker one but she did get Silver at SA and bombed later and did not get Finals. This year Kostner seems to be weaker one, so let's watch and see what happens.

Joe

These two last posts may be combined, so you have to look for my reply basically agreein with you - js.

 

[Sylvia]

Okay, perhaps there would be fewer questions if we had a list on hand of how US skaters stand for Grand Prix invites. Note that this list does not consider who might decide to do the JGP instead, or any rule changes the ISU might make this summer.

Seeded:
Men: Johnny Weir, cannot be assigned to the same events as Jeffrey Buttle or Brian Joubert
Dance: Tanith Belbin and Benjamin Agosto, Meryl Davis & Charlie White, cannot be assigned to the same event as Faiella & Scali

Guaranteed two events:
Men: Stephen Carriere, Jeremy Abbott
Ladies: Kimmie Meissner, Bebe Liang
Pairs: Rena Inoue & John Baldwin, Brooke Castile & Benjamin Okolski
Dance: Kimberly Navarro & Brent Bommentre

Guaranteed one event(more likely than not to get two):
Men: Evan Lysacek, Brandon Mroz, Adam Rippon, Ryan Bradley, Armin Mahbanoozadeh
Ladies: Ashley Wagner, Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu, Emily Hughes, Rachael Flatt, Katrina Hacker
Pairs: Keauna McLaughlin & Rockne Brubaker, Jessica Rose Paetsch & Jon Nuss, Tiffany Vise & Derek Trent, Amanda Evora & Mark Ladwig, Meeran Trombley & Laureano Ibarra
Ice Dancing: Emily Samuelson & Evan Bates, Jennifer Wester & Daniil Barantsev

Madison Hubbell/Keiffer Hubbell are also guaranteed one Sr. GP (they are #23 in the ISU World dance rankings) if they decide not to return to the JGP. Armin Mahbanoozadeh is likely to return to the JGP, but I don't know about Brandon Mroz yet.

Also eligible for invites [top 75 in ISU's Season Best scores list]:
Men: Douglas Razzano, Austin Kanallakan, Scott Smith, Tommy Steenberg, Alexander Johnson, Eliot Halverson, Richard Dornbush, Curran Oi
Ladies: Alissa Czisny, Kristine Musademba, Alexe Gilles, Chrissy Hughes, Blake Rosenthal, Juliana Cannarozzo
Pairs: Chelsi Guillen & Danny Curzon, Bianca Butler & Joseph Jacobson, Marissa Castelli & Simon Shnapir
Ice Dancing: Madison & Keiffer Hubbell, Shannon Wingle & Ryan Devereaux, Madison Chock & Greg Zuerlein (added in), Piper Gilles & Timothy McKernan (added in), Rachel Tibbetts & Collin Brubaker, Isabella Cannuscio & Ian Lorello, Lynn Kriengkrairut & Logan Giulietti-Schmitt

Not age-eligible, or no longer age-eligible, for the JGP/ISU junior events from those listed above are: Razzano, Smith and Steenberg, Czisny, Guillen/Curzon and Butler/Jacobsen (pairs) and Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt (dance).

I noticed last year that the only cases where skaters did competitions back-to-back was when skaters got 2nd events due to a withdrawal.

Emily Hughes did Skate America and Skate Canada back-to-back last fall, but reportedly that was her preference and she happened to be granted it.

Apparently the ISU has guidelines which discourage assigning skaters to consecutive events.

It is my understanding that the ISU will try not to assign skaters/teams to back-to-back GP events, particularly in different continents, but that this is not a fixed-in-stone policy.

 

[Kypma]

Emily Hughes did Skate America and Skate Canada back-to-back last fall, but reportedly that was her preference and she happened to be granted it.

It is my understanding that the ISU will try not to assign skaters/teams to back-to-back GP events, particularly in different continents, but that this is not a fixed-in-stone policy.

Jessica Dubé and Bryce Davison have also been assignment Skate Canada and Skate America in the last two years... though in 2006 she had surgery so they had to withdraw, and in 2007 they were added to NKH Trophy.

Kypma

 

[chuckm]

The SA/SC assignment can be desirable to skaters who either live or train in North America, because the travel distance is limited and there's no jet lag. But I tend to doubt that you'd find that combination of assignments given to a Euro or Asian skater who didn't train in North America.

Similarly, the TEB/CoR combination might not be undesirable for European skaters (at least the ones training in Europe), but a bear for NA and Asian skaters.

 

[ChrisH]

I'm thinking that holding the best event possible, not getting its skaters to the GPF, will be Skate America's highest priority. Toward that end, the USFS may recommend its 3 Team A members, Kimmie, Bebe, and Mirai.

That's not too bad methinks in terms of hurting the ladies chances at qualifying for the GPF. (As the Team A members aren't necessarily the 3 best US ladies skaters.)

Taking Kimmie and Mirai and saving the 3rd slot for another US lady may be a better idea, as Bebe is guaranteed 2 GP invitations anyways.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I'm thinking that holding the best event possible, not getting its skaters to the GPF, will be Skate America's highest priority. Toward that end, the USFS may recommend its 3 Team A members, Kimmie, Bebe, and Mirai.

Totally agree. Much better than having the 3 former junior prodigies in the same competition. Mao, YuNa, or Carolina may knock one of them into 4th place and that's not the score for the Finals. While skaters do not control this, the USFS could at SA as far as I know.

Taking Kimmie and Mirai and saving the 3rd slot for another US lady may be a better idea, as Bebe is guaranteed 2 GP invitations anyways.

I think Emily woud be a better choice since she'll only have 1 GP. She has more fans than Bebe from what I noticed.

Joe

 

[chuckm]

While Emily is guaranteed one event, she would probably get two, as she is in the top 24 on both the ISU and SB lists. However, we don't know if Emily even wants to do the GP next season.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

While Emily is guaranteed one event, she would probably get two, as she is in the top 24 on both the ISU and SB lists. However, we don't know if Emily even wants to do the GP next season.

Very true, we don't have anything official on Emily's skating plans. If she does skate the one, I think it would have to be a very competitive program to get a second.. Is she practicing?

Joe

 

[chuckm]

If Emily wants her name submitted for GP invitations, while she is guaranteed just one event, she will almost certainly get two right away, and not dependent on how she does in the first.

Last season, any skater who was guaranteed one event based on being in the top 24 on the ISU and/or SB list got two events. Even some skaters who were in the top 30-35 but weren't guaranteed any events got two.