The Grand Prix Strategy

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It appears that the reigning U.S. national champs can make requests to USFS regarding their Skate America assignments -- for example, Belbin/Agosto (this past season) and Johnny Weir (reportedly the last few seasons) requested that they not be assigned to 2006 Skate America and their requests were granted.

Interesting. So skaters can probably decide whether they want to skate the 'home' GP. It was with that thought that I suggested Kimmie not to choose SA.

Big Guns will meet in the Finals where they belong. China and Russia had little to do with top skaters and we got Sebestyen in the Finals. Nothing wrong with that, but my point was Kimmie in China would have won and would have been in the Finals.

There is strategy if one could apply it to getting to the Finals where the main event takes place.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Skaters can't avoid anything or anyone. The host federations pick them and set up the competitions the way they want. Actually, the federation who has first pick (by draw) has the ability to determine how that competition will unfold. The last federation to pick has to settle for the skaters that are left.

Thats what I was trying to figure out. Thanks euterpe. You do have a good source for that statement?

The skaters themselves have no say at all as to where they are going to skate outside of their own home country (if that is a host federation). It has to be a bummer for skaters/teams to find themselves at back-to-back events in far away places.

However, last season, we had in China: Sebestyen, Nakano, and Hughes.
In Russia we had: Sebestyen, Meier and Czisney. I ask you whom would you want to be in the finals and should there be strategy played by the Skaters or the Feds?

Joe

 

[Hsuhs]

My prediction is:

Evan will be at Skate America, b/c he's always there, finishing 2nd.

Johnny will be sent to Skate Canada, again, b/c he hates it, and they know it. Pure coincidence. I'm sure, he'll want to have Cup of Russia. Not sure he will get what he wants. I'd love him to come to France, besides, isn't it his 2nd choice of GP location?

Kimmie will show up at Skate America. Prob Belbin and Agosto will do the same. Someone has to sell tickets.

Oda (or Takahashi) will go to Skate America to beat Evan. And will do NHK.

Plushenko will skate at Cup of Russia, of course. Not sure Joubert will want to be there.

I'm unaware of Lambiel's GP preferences. Maybe he won't do GP at all?

Jeff? Skate Canada. He missed it last year.

 

[hockeyfan228]

It's hard to say how host Federations are dealing for particular skaters, regardless of the select order (after the host nations have picked their three), but its hard to imagine that there isn't room for haggling.

Yu-Na Kim might be Korean, but she trains with Brian Orser, who I would hope is either influential or taken into consideration by Skate Canada. Any skater who trains in Canada is likely to be a human interest story in Canada, regardless of nationality. That's also true to an extent for skaters who train in the US, although their draw might be more regional, and allegiance of USFS to Russian coaches training skaters in the US might not be as tight as Skate Canada's are to Canadian trainers.

While the rules state that 1-3 are chosen first for two events each, and 4-6 are chosen second for two events each, through 7-9 and 10-12 in the last two years, there were several instances where a Federation chose more than the usual allotment from its own skaters. Example: last year, Mao Asada was ranked 12th (she took Cohen's place in the top 12, after Cohen decided to sit out the season), and Kostner was rated 11th; both were chosen for NHK. IIRC, the year before, there were two skaters in ranked 4-6 at NHK for Ladies as well. Last year, there was no one from the 4-6 group at Skate America, but there were two ranked 7-9 (Korpi and Hughes), and five seeds altogether, while there were only three seeds chosen for CoC (Sokolova [3], Nakano [4], and Hughes [7]). I'm not sure why there are anomalies like this in the initial selections.

Added into the mix are the skaters who skipped Worlds, but are top skaters and who qualified for a minimium of 1 and got 2, like Shen/Zhao this year. Plushenko is not among the top 12 from Worlds, but if last year's rules stand, he will be guaranteed 1, based on last year's rankings. I am certain that another Federation would want him for the box office draw, but I suspect if he only wants to skate 1, the Russian Fed will use its muscle (or deal).

SA might see to have lesser fields, but it's also early in the season, which, for some skaters, is a marked disadvantage, particularly in years like last year, where the COI tour lasted until August. Even so, there are skaters for whom an early season gig is rough.

 

[Ladskater]

I don't know - is it really a strategy? I thought the Grand Prix championship was just good exposure for skaters to make an impression on the judges throughout the season. At one time there was only the Nationals, the North American championships and the Worlds. Skaters did not have so many events. Of course Skate Canada and Skate America replaced the North American championships. Personally, I think skaters suffer from overexposure now and even exhaustion because they are on the road so much. Too many championships and tours. It's a lot to ask of a skater.

 

[Jaana]

Personally, I think skaters suffer from overexposure now and even exhaustion because they are on the road so much. Too many championships and tours. It's a lot to ask of a skater.

I don´t think at all that the seeded skaters have too many championships or are on the road so much during a normal season (no Olympics):

- two GP events and GPF only if a skater qualifies
- Nationals
- Europeans or Four Continents
- Worlds

The rest, tours and shows are just extras. I don´t see a need for any empathy if top skaters get tired because of them. LOL, if some skaters feel that the competitive season is too heavy because of shows & tours, those skaters definetely need to turn pro, in my opinion.

 

[fsf9012]

And like I said, we've seen that neither Asada nor Kim had perfect seasons, they have shown that they do make mistakes. Kimmie could face Asada twice and quite possibly beat her twice. I'm not PREDICTING that she will, but I am not counting her out.

Well, I'm not counting Meissner out but let's face it. She will get a tough battle against Asada or Kim. Kimmie skated a decent LP but barely finished 3rd in the free over Kim who has a disastrous skate. Kim was ahead in total by 6 points that means if her last double axel had not counted, she would still have won over Meissner. Besides that, the gap between Meissner's new personal best and Asada's short was only(I'd say) about 4 point which Asada has no problem to upset Kimmie if she skates well in the long.

 

[bekalc]

This year was weird though because the three world medalists (this year) weren't seated. However, next year, I think the system is suppose to insist that each different competition has to get either Miki, Mao, Yu-na will be the top seated skaters. And well,

The skaters if I understand, especially if they are seated don't get to choose where they go, only their federations may choose to have them at their particular skating thing.

It will probably go something like Mao gets NHK and Skate America.

Yu-na Kim gets China and Skate Canada.
Miki gets Cup of Russia and Trophey Bombard.

But basically each group has to get one of those girls, which means I'm sure that they are going to be much more even.

It also means that its more likely for someone to make the GPF and not get a gold medal.

 

[debdelilah]

While the rules state that 1-3 are chosen first for two events each, and 4-6 are chosen second for two events each, through 7-9 and 10-12 in the last two years, there were several instances where a Federation chose more than the usual allotment from its own skaters. Example: last year, Mao Asada was ranked 12th (she took Cohen's place in the top 12, after Cohen decided to sit out the season), and Kostner was rated 11th; both were chosen for NHK.

Well, no, the seeding is based off the top six finishers at Senior Worlds, so it was Sokolova, not Mao, who took Cohen's place as a 1-3 seed. Kimmie, Fumie, and Elena became the 1-3 seeds, while Yukari Nakano, Sarah Meier, and Joannie Rochette became the 4-6 seeds. The skaters in 7-12 place are guaranteed two events but not seeded--there is no limit to how many can be skating together in one event.

IIRC, the year before, there were two skaters in ranked 4-6 at NHK for Ladies as well. Last year, there was no one from the 4-6 group at Skate America, but there were two ranked 7-9 (Korpi and Hughes), and five seeds altogether, while there were only three seeds chosen for CoC (Sokolova [3], Nakano [4], and Hughes [7]). I'm not sure why there are anomalies like this in the initial selections.

Sarah Meier was the member of the 4-6 group at Skate America; the other seed there was Kimmie. But there are never more than two seeds at any event--just sometimes less, when someone drops out because of injury after the assignments have been made. Hughes was not a seed, so there were only two at CoC--one from 1-3(Sokolova) and one from 4-6(Nakano).

With six events, and each of the six seeds guaranteed to skate at two of them, and not skate with anyone who falls into their same category(whether 1-3 or 4-6) it works out that each event has one 1-3 seed and one 4-6 seed, except with injuries like Buttle's, that happen after the assignments are made(and after it is too late to bump someone else up to become a seed.)

 

[PolymerBob]

Several years ago, I was listening to a radio sports broadcast where they were talking about a tennis tournament. One of the announcers explained that process and logic of “seeding”. The logic is you want your best players to meet late in the tournament. You don’t want your best players to meet early and have some of them get bumped off, and then have mediocre players make the finals. This is because a great player vs great player match up draws a bigger crowd, both stadium and TV, than a great player vs lesser player match.

Regardless of what the official rules are, the ISU surely wants the best skaters to make the GPF. I’m sure they will do what they can, within the rules, to make this happen.

 

[Spun Silver]

I've never understood tennis seeding. It's always happening that great players are eliminated in early rounds. Those uppity bad seeds!

Regardless of what the official rules are, the ISU surely wants the best skaters to make the GPF. I’m sure they will do what they can, within the rules, to make this happen.

I have the distinct impression that they also seek some kind of national distribution. E.g., an all-Japanese grand prix finale wouldn't do much for skating outside Japan - or that seems to be the idea. I wonder if this logic ever causes the best skaters NOT to win....

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Thread getting interesting but still no definite answer to who has the say on where a skater must go. However, there seems to be an outline. Based on World Podium finishers, skaters will be given priority for their assignments; followed by 4-6; followed by 7-9; followed by 10-12

SA- Miki. SC- Kim CoC- Mao EB- Miki NHK- Mao CoR- Kim
Kimmie Kostner Nakano Nakano Kostner Kimmie

Meier Poykio Hughes Poykio Hughes Meier
Marchei Rochette Sebestyan Rochette Marchei Sebestyen
Zhang and whoever.
Bebe and whoever.
I don't know how to make columns.

The above is just a probability. I tried to put each skater with a different group in their next event

 

[Mathman]

Debdelilah, thanks for your explanation of last year's seeding. It makes more sense to me now.

So, as far as the top three seeds goes, is this right? There is a draw by representatives of the six events and whoever gets first choice says, I want Mao (or whoever)?

 

[bibi]

Since I saw that Mao and her sister were named the country's goodwill ambassadors to promote tourism between Canada and Japan, I think she will want to do Skate Canada. That would be a good chance for her to travel in Canada because she is the ambassador. I know that Yu Na will probably want to go there too,...I don't know what's gonna happen because they can't be both at the same event.
Am I the only one who think that maybe Mao will do SC?

 

[blue dog]

I completely agree with this point of view. If your "strategy" is to sneak around hoping to get in the back door without competing against anyone, what's the point?

Kimmie should be saying (like Irina did about Michelle), oh, boy, I hope I get a chance to knock Mao and Yu-na off the pedestal a couple of times this fall!

I'm with you guys on this one--if I were Kimmie, I'd rather be facing off with the best. I don't compete in figure skating, but in speech and debate, I really like facing off with the powerhouse teams. If I am beaten by their competitors, I am at least learning something from them...and from my own mistakes.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I'm with you guys on this one--if I were Kimmie, I'd rather be facing off with the best. I don't compete in figure skating, but in speech and debate, I really like facing off with the powerhouse teams. If I am beaten by their competitors, I am at least learning something from them...and from my own mistakes.

I completely disagree. If you are a competitive person you work it so that you WIN. Joubert saw what he had in the SP, and strategically skated conservatively for the win.

The method of Winning is any which way you can even if some cheating is going on. Not nice, of course, but it is one way to WIN. Otherwise one looks at what advantages are ahead.

The goal of the GP is to WIN the Final.. Not so much the events leading up to it but to ensure one makes the Final. You don't see that? Last year, I think the Ladies needed at least a gold and a silver to make the Final. The tie up before the Final was excrutiating for Rochette and Miessner. especially with Sebestyen breezing through. She didn't meet up with the top seeds. But that's the way it is in GPland.

While debidelilah spoke of last years method and quite well, too. Sylvia from her post wants to wait for possible changes this year.

I believe gathering all this speculation and information, I will conclude that there will be a draw between the 3 World podium skaters, although their placings for me seems to be enough without a draw. If 4,5 and 6 also draw, I hope they are aware of the picks made by the top 3.

And BlueDog, I'm with you but only in the Finals do I want la creme de creme battling out. I don't want to sit through second tier skaters who happened to be lucky that night in two GP events.

Remember Sandhu did not originally make the Finals but then he
did and winning it!!!! Any which way was in the Rules. :thumbsup:

Joe

 

[Mathman]

It is still not clear to me what opportunities a skater like Kimmie has to form a "strategy" for the Grand Prix. As I understand it (?), the assignments for the top six at worlds are made by a random draw, and there is little the skaters can do about it one way or another.

If Kimmie could somehow wriggle out of Skate America (being afraid of Miki Ando), then she will have to face Yu-na Kim at Skate Canada or Mao Asada at Trophee Lalique. In fact, she will have to face one or another of these three at both of her events, no matter which two events she is assigned to.

 

[PolymerBob]

The world championship can not be the only factor that determines which skates go to the GP. Alissa finished 7th at nationals and did not go to worlds last year, but she made the GP.

 

[Mathman]

The world championship can not be the only factor that determines which skates go to the GP. Alissa finished 7th at nationals and did not go to worlds last year, but she made the GP.

Here are the rules (last year's) for how skaters are selected (scroll down to page three).

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-176029-193247-107503-0-file,00.pdf

 

[hockeyfan228]

Well, no, the seeding is based off the top six finishers at Senior Worlds, so it was Sokolova, not Mao, who took Cohen's place as a 1-3 seed. Kimmie, Fumie, and Elena became the 1-3 seeds, while Yukari Nakano, Sarah Meier, and Joannie Rochette became the 4-6 seeds. The skaters in 7-12 place are guaranteed two events but not seeded--there is no limit to how many can be skating together in one event.

Sokolova was bumped up to 3rd seed because Cohen left; Asada took place #12 because Cohen didn't skate, just as Shen/Zhao took place #12 in pairs, when Hinzmann/Parchem retired. At Skate America, #'s 11 and 12 competed in the same competition, which is not supposed to happen.

Sarah Meier was the member of the 4-6 group at Skate America; the other seed there was Kimmie. But there are never more than two seeds at any event--just sometimes less, when someone drops out because of injury after the assignments have been made. Hughes was not a seed, so there were only two at CoC--one from 1-3(Sokolova) and one from 4-6(Nakano).

You are right about seeds; I mistakenly used "seed" for all of the top 12. However, according to the selection rules, there should be one and no more than one from 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, and 10-12, with explicit rules about who moves into the top 12 if skater(s)/team(s) in the top 12 from Worlds do not compete in Grand Prix the following year.