The Japanese Ladies

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Well, it's not like we haven't mentioned them before but now it seems they are to be mentioned as much as the Russian Ladies and the American Ladies.

Shizuka Arakawa, Miki Ando, Fumie Suguri, Yukina Ota, Yoshie Onda, Mao Asado, and who else is movin on up in that stable?

Do you forsee a possible Worldw 2005 Poldium of Japanese Ladies?

I would say it is not impossible.

Joe

 

[jesslily]

Almost all of these Japaness ladies have very hreat juming technique and jumping ability. And quite a few of them work with Western choreographers. If they continue on this route, it's not impossible to see three Japaness ladies on the podiem nest year.

 

[berthes ghost]

Well, it's not like we haven't mentioned them before but now it seems they are to be mentioned as much as the Russian Ladies and the American Ladies.

The Russians!

Let's see:

Senior Worlds:
JPN 1st, 4th, 7th
RUS 9th, 10th, 15th
USA 2nd, 3rd, 18th

Junior Worlds:
JPN 1st, 4th, 5th
RUS 8th, 15th
USA 2nd, 3rd, 11th

4CC/Euros: (note, RUS not competing against USA and JPN)
JPN 1st, 6th, 8th
RUS 3rd, 16th, 18th
USA 3rd, 7th, 13th

Russia didn't even qualify a 3rd lady for next year. The only reason to be talking about Russian ladies now, is to wonder if they can pull off a comeback with all of their problems!

Japan?
Shazuka won worlds
Miki won junior worlds
Fumie won GPF
Yukina won 4CC

You're comparing this to a bronze medal at Euros?

 

[thvudragon]

berthes ghost, you're missing the point. It has to do with more of the overall picture and past results as well. You cannot take one worlds and say the Russian Ladies are in trouble. You have to consider all the problems that have occured and the circumstances. Take last Worlds for example.

USA
1st, 4th, 6th
Japan
3rd, 8th
Russia
2nd, 5th, 15th.

This wasn't even with Irina. Taking a look at past results, it's even more evident. It is only recently where the whole of the Japanese team is even doing well. If the top Russian skaters were healthy and well prepared for worlds, they would have had much better results. Just take a look at Irina's programs. Healthy, those programs are World Champion material.

jesslily, I don't see how you can say that most of the Japanese Ladies have great jumping technique. The best is Arakawa and Ando, but besides them, almost all the Japanese ladies have very questionable technique. Fumie has poor jump quality in almost all her jumps (except the flip). Yoshie lands on the flat of her blade. Nakano has horrible technique in her edge jumps. Asada has a horrid toe-axel. Ota's jumps are loads better than last season, much higher, but she still has poor runout and cheated jumps.

 

[berthes ghost]

Oh.

I thought that the point was the future, not the past.

Landing off the world podium is nothing new for the beleagured elite of Russian ladies skating. Various Japanese ladies won everying in sight this season, and enjoy a 3/2 advantage with the Russians concerning world titles.

The next generation is what I was thinking more about.

 

[thvudragon]

The next generation is what I was thinking more about.

ohh, lol, okay. Yeah, I agree then that the future of Russian Ladies skating is very bleak. They have Slutskaya, Volchkova, Sokolova, and Soldatova and nothing else. I really don't see a future. These 4 are very strong though, so hopefully they can stay healthy.

TV

 

[Vash01]

The Japanese ladies are taking the world by storm by challenging themselves to do more difficult jumps/combinations. However, the only complete skaters among them are Shizuka and Fumie. The Asada sisters and Miki certainly can develop into complete skaters but they are at least a couple years away from it. I am not sure they will get there even by 2006. Yoshie has powerful jumps but I have not seen her land a 3-3 combo or a 3-zxel. Yukari Nakano has only the triple axel. I don't know if she can develop artistry. I like Yukina Ota very much but without the difficult jumps, will she even make the Japanese world team?

The point I am trying to make is they don't have a strong enough team to sweep the worlds podium. It is not easy to sweep at the world level. A lot of things have to go your way for that to happen. It happened to the US ladies in 1991 because of Midori Ito's injury. At the 1992 Olympics, 2003 worlds and the 1998 the US ladies team looked strong enough to sweep, but they did not. I expect the Japanese team in 2005 will not be as strong as these two US teams.

OTOH the US ladies, as usual, will be strong enough to sweep, although that may not happen because of the presence of Shizuka, Miki, Irina, etc. -may be even Carolina will be in the mix by 2005.

The Japanese ladies do appear to be very committed to improve and get to the top, however. I expect them to be even stronger next year, but the US ladies (and other countries too) will get better too. I expect Michelle to have a 3-3, Sasha to have a quad or a 3-3. Some of the younger US ladies are already trying the difficult jumps. The Japanese ladies may be leading the way, pushing the technical envelope, but I don't expect to see 3 Japanese ladies on the podium in 2005 or even in 2006.

Vash

 

[Verbalgirl77]

The issue is going to be which skaters actually qualify for the World team next year. What happens if Yoshie hits a triple axel and skates cleanly at Japanese Nationals, or Ota fixes her jump problems and skates 2 clean programs?

It's going to be a dogfight to make their World team next year and in 2006, and the skaters that make up that team bring very different things and have strengths & weaknesses that they each bring to the World championships. Looking at what happened at Japanese nats this year, no one is a shoo-in.

On the US team, we have some fab young skaters coming up as well as those already successful senior ladies. In 2006, if one of those then-16 year old (now junior) girls sneaks on the Olympic team you never know what will happen, especially if the has a 3-3, lol. They tend to have better luck then most, recently.

No one can be counted out. The ladies competitions should be great over the next few years, and hopefully the performances will live up to the great talent.

 

[jesslily]

If Yoshie and Miki need time to develop their artistry, it's true, but certainly not Yukina Ota. She did great at the 4 Continents. She has great jumping technique and spin ability. If she works on her consistency, Arakawa, Fumie, and Yukina could sweep the podium.

 

[show 42]

The Japanese skaters are wonderful and obviously here to stay, but, there's still only room for three on that podium........42

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I agree Vash, it is difficult for any country to sweep the podium. Also 2005 Worlds is in Moscow and this is not a Russian bash but from my point of view I have seen Host Countries getting the befefit of any doubt. For example, Lindemann v. Lambiel just recently for example.

I don't really think the Japanes Ladies will sweep the podium in Moscow but I do believe there is a possibility.

And for a country like Russia which is known for strict ballet technique, and it shows up in Pairs and Dance, why not show up in Ladies?

Anyway, my gal for Torino is Yukina Ota. (Arakawa has jut raised the bar for all those Ladies in Japan.)

Joe

 

[shine]

This is OT, but I've always wondered why, with all the beautiful, ballet-trained skaters in dance, pairs, and even men, Russia has not been producing ladies with the same kind of classic elegance/lines? I think Markova and Butyrskaya have come the closest but still not exactly what I'd call classically elegant. Such a myth :\

 

[RealtorGal]

Anyway, my gal for Torino is Yukina Ota. (Arakawa has jut raised the bar for all those Ladies in Japan.)

Joe

Well, Joe, as I've mentioned before, Ota needs A LOT of help with her jumps. Before we hand her the OLY gold, I think she needs to improve her technical side and focus on making it to the World team...

 

[Vash01]

Joe,

Host country advantage is certainly a factor and we have seen it many times, including at these worlds (Lindemann perhaps, but ABC did not show Lambiel's LP so I don't really know). If Irina is healthy and capable of skating the way she did a few years ago, she will have a chance for the podium.

Yukina is my most favorite Japanese lady skater. However, she is going to need some big jumps to make the Japanese world/Olympic team. I have always liked Shizuka too, and now as the world champion she will most probably make the Japanese team in 2005 and 2006. I am not so sure about Fumie. Like Yukina, she will need those 3-3's.

I never cared for Yoshie' skating, and it was not always the artistry issue. Even if she is able to land a triple axel and improves her presentation, I don't see her among the top ladies. In fact I have seen some improvement in her presentation, but she is a long way from becoming a top skater. Someone else will have to do very poorly for her to make the team.

For 2006 Olys my prediction for the Japanese ladies team will be Shizuka, Miki, Yukina. For the 2005 worlds it may be Shizuka, Miki, and either Fumie or Yoshie, depending on how they do in the GP series. I don't see a sweep with these 3. I don't see Michelle missing the podium if she is at worlds in 2005. Now that Sasha has the monkey off her back, she will be strong too.

In 2005 we may see 1 US, 1 Japnese, 1 Russian lady on the podium (that is, if Irina returns to top form). Otherwise the podium will be split between US and Japanese ladies. Will Carolina be ready by 2005 is anyone's guess but in Turino she will be a contender for a medal- home field advantage!

JMHO

Vash

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

RG and Vash - I agree Yukina needs to up the triples combos and with consistency. What I was thinking about, is that Shizuka has shown the others that Japanese Ladies can be Queen of the Ice. That sentiment gives motitvation for the others to work harder. Bottom line for us is to muse and wait.

I would say that in Dortmund, Irina got the biggest ovation. She is very popular throughout Europe. Her home town presence in 2005 is an advantage for the podium and a win if she is up to her best.

My home town theory is based on my two Worlds I've seen live. MK got the gold in DC over a very high level technical of Elena. I'm sure the roar of the crowd has some influence on the judges., although it didn't quite work for Timmy but then he was up against the King of the Ice. With the roar of the crowd in Dortmund, it was clear that Lindemann would win over Lambiel, but also Winkler and Lohse v. Grushina and Gronov(sp). Both Lambiel and G&G were arguably better. However, the Germans were very good too, and that's where subjectivity comes in.

Carolina in 2006? No surprise to me if she's on the podium., and maybe Yukina, too.

Joe

 

[Kateri]

If we're talking podiums for 2006, I wouldn't rule Victoria Pavuk out of anything, if she improves her presentation.
Shame Hungary only had 1 spot at Worlds - you shoulda seen her at Euros!

k

 

[Fossi]

I like Shizuka and Fumie. I was disappointed with Miki. She looks like a power horse, but I was bored to tears. I wanted to see her quad and I wonder if that's all she has right now. Her LP was not up to par with the other ladies, even with the 3/3. I really wanted to be impressed with her, but I wasn't.

 

[shine]

I love Ota to pieces, but it woduln't surprise me if she doesn't even make the world team till like 2014, with all the JPN girls landing 3/3s and quads and axels and she can't even land her individual triples consistently. To think that such amazing artistry and quality skating might be buried in her own nationals is just heartbreaking.

 

[Verbalgirl77]

You never know. Miki landed the quad at World Juniors and Yukina still beat her.

 

[jesslily]

You never know how much progress Yukina can make each time she competes. I feel she made a huge progress every time I saw her on TV. Besides this world championship, how many times Arakawa has landed 3/3s successfully? Not many. Some skaters can improve a lot in a year, while some skaters stay the same every year, and there are some get worse and get tired of the sport after a few years competing.