The Magic Number to Make the Finals

[Joesitz (RIP)]

As I have noticed that the JGP's magic number was 24 but the top six skaters finished at 26 or more. Can we say that for the Senior Grand Prix the number to reach should be 26? and who has a chance to reach that number?

That number will be 2 gold medals for the competitor
A gold and silver medal will work.
A gold and bronze medal will work

Two silvers will work

In one competition a top Lady finisher at SC did very poorly. While she has a chance for gold in Paris, she will not make up 26 points Similarly with Meier.

It seems the field will be Japanese and N.Americans provided all potentials skate well in their second assignment. ACzech could also make it.

For the Men: Kozuka, Abbott, Chan are very potential finishers for 26 points at least possible. Weir, Bradley still have chance to reach 26. Carriere and Verner will need help to get a gold or silver. It will be most impossible for Lysacek and possibly a tie which he will not win.

Here is the ISU's tally of the events so far and the Xs show those eligible to skate next, and in what venue.

http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2008/gpsmen.pdf

 

[MissIzzy]

Actually it's slightly more complicated. 26 points is what you need to lock it up mathematically, but what you really need is gold and another medal. For instance, Tanith and Ben have 26 points right now, but they don't have gold, so they would lose out if a different dance team won each event, and then each of those dance teams won another medal elsewhere, since gold and bronze beats their two silvers on the first tiebreaker, and they also might have to face off other teams with two silvers on the second tiebreaker. It is extremely unlikely they won't make it, and I think if Delobel & Scheonfedler win next week and then neither Faiella & Scali nor Crone & Poirier win silver, or if the latter win silver but have a lower combined score total than Tanith and Ben, or if both Delobel and Schoenfelder and Domnina and Shabalin win, it will become impossible to knock them out of the top six, but as of this moment, they are not yet locked.
Meanwhile, the hope for Evan would be that not only do less than six skaters reach 26 points, but less than six even reach 22, which is still unlikely, though his chances are increased if both Takahashi and Oda compete at NHK and win gold and silver, thus taking 28 points out of contention.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Actually it's slightly more complicated. 26 points is what you need to lock it up mathematically, but what you really need is gold and another medal. For instance, Tanith and Ben have 26 points right now, but they don't have gold, so they would lose out if a different dance team won each event, and then each of those dance teams won another medal elsewhere, since gold and bronze beats their two silvers on the first tiebreaker, and they also might have to face off other teams with two silvers on the second tiebreaker. It is extremely unlikely they won't make it, and I think if Delobel & Scheonfedler win next week and then neither Faiella & Scali nor Crone & Poirier win silver, or if the latter win silver but have a lower combined score total than Tanith and Ben, or if both Delobel and Schoenfelder and Domnina and Shabalin win, it will become impossible to knock them out of the top six, but as of this moment, they are not yet locked.
Meanwhile, the hope for Evan would be that not only do less than six skaters reach 26 points, but less than six even reach 22, which is still unlikely, though his chances are increased if both Takahashi and Oda compete at NHK and win gold and silver, thus taking 28 points out of contention.

my mentioning the magic number 26 was just to show the lock. Given there may well be several people with 26, a tiebraker does come into play but saying this in another way:

2 gold medals will get 30 points
1 gold medal and 1 silver will get 28 points
1 Silver medal and 1 gold will get 28 points
1 Gold medal and 1 bronze medal will get 26 points
1 Bronze medal and 1 gold will get 26 points
2 Silver medals will get 26 points

1 Silver and Bronze will get 24points
1 Bronze and Silver will get 24 points

2 Bronze medals will get 22 points.

1 Gold and a 4th place will get 24
1 Gold and a 5th place will get 22
1 Go;d amd 6th place will get 20

Much of the above will carry the skaters, after the tiebreakers, to the Finals but less than gold and silver, it will not be easy. What does Kostner and Meier need? I think they are both out of it. Much will depend on top skaters splatting to help other skaters, e.g. Lysacek.

IMO, the Final is the payoff and getting there is the tough part. It will show the top 6 singles or teams going into Euros and 4ccs

 

[gold12345]

It will show the top 6 singles or teams going into Euros and 4ccs

Sometimes. Often times someone gets left out due to a tie breaker, or because one of their events had an exceptionally strong field. It's an honor to qualify for the Final, but I don't think it necessarily shows the top 6 every time. Some great skaters who could place in the top 6 at Worlds are going to get shut out this time around, just like always.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Sometimes. Often times someone gets left out due to a tie breaker, or because one of their events had an exceptionally strong field. It's an honor to qualify for the Final, but I don't think it necessarily shows the top 6 every time. Some great skaters who could place in the top 6 at Worlds are going to get shut out this time around, just like always.

So true and there is no way to use a strategy because the fields are run by the invitations of the hosting Feds who will make money on them. I think they have some value in future predictions, but in the last analysis I will take the results with a grain of salt. The struggle to get to the Finals is not easy, and once there, what does it really mean.

 

[lcd]

with only 6 qualifying, so much seems to fall to the luck of the draw at events. For instance, the USA ladies obviously knocked themselves mostly out of contention before the series even started by having them go up against such a heavy weight field at Skate America. I mean, come on... Rachael was the strongest but with a 4th, that made her shot at final almost hopeless. Good for her for 2nd in Russia - terrific, but that probably won't cut it which is a shame in my book.

I wish the senior GPF had room for 8 entries per event. You know... 2 flights of 4.

Remember when they had them do those exhausting 2 free skates and one short or OD? and everyone would dredge up a dusted off version of last year's free skate... grim... and always felt so badly for the athletes... that's a lot of programs to train for. Everyone always looked so exhausted.

 

[oleada]

The tough ladies field in SA didn't have to be there - it's all the USFS fault. Nakano & Kim are seeds, but they didn't have to invite Ando, nor did they have to place Rachael and Mirai against each other.

I'm ok with the field being just six. It's the elite, the final flight.

As for the original question:

What does Kostner and Meier need? I think they are both out of it. Much will depend on top skaters splatting to help other skaters, e.g. Lysacek.

Carolina Kostner is in. A gold medal gives her 15 points to the 9 she already had, giving her a total of 24. The first place finish at CoR means that she's ahead of Ando & Suguri in the standings. She's third in the standings, behind Kim & Rochette.

Current ladies standings:

Yu-Na KIM KOR 30 15 15 385.20
Joannie ROCHETTE CAN 30 15 15 369.62
Carolina KOSTNER ITA 24 9 15 323.48
Miki ANDO JPN 24 11 13 339.30
Fumie SUGURI JPN 24 13 11 325.90
Rachael FLATT USA 22 9 11 321.79

Barring disaster, Asada & Nakano should qualify from NHK. I don't think there's a mathematically possible way for the contestants at NHK to overtake Kostner.

Meir is out, because she withdrew from her second event (Cup of Russia) due to injury.

As for the "magic number" - it really depends. The magic number for ladies this season is going to be 24, imo. If all pans out as it should, Kim & Rochette will qualify with 30, Nakano & Asada with either 26 or 28 depending on who finishes ahead, and Kostner & Ando with 24 - Ando coming ahead of Suguri on the second tiebreak, which is total score.

That said, ice is slippery.

You said the magic number for the JGP was 24, but that's not always the case - quite often it comes down to 22. The final spot in dance came down to a tie-break between Pushkash & Kiselev, Antipova & Kudashev and Routhier & Saucke-Lacelle, who all had 22 points. The two Russian teams came out ahead in placement (2nd & 4th vs. the Canadian's two bronze medals) but Pushkash & Kiselev had higher scores in total so they went to the finals.

Last year it was a similar situation in the ladies and men. Gilles, Musademba & Suizu all had 22 points, but Gilles & Musademba went to the finals because they had higher placement. Gachinski was one of 4 men with 22 points last year, but he was the only one who got to go the finals (ahead of Grigoriev & Mura on placement; ahead of Razzano in point total).