Where does Kozuka figure in as a future Olympic Champion?
I think he'd need some other skaters to make serious mistakes to get to the top of the podium in Vancouver. Or possibly even on the podium. Kozuka's a talented skater but like most of the current lot, he's inconsistent, and also hampered by his tendency to UR quads.
Personally, I see Kozuka as a good skater but not a special one: there are people doing better jumps, more intricate footwork, more interesting choreo, who have better speed, go for harder elements, and skate overall more original and entertaining programs.
My guess is that any of the following skaters could win the 2010 OGM, in no particular order: Verner, Joubert, Oda, Takahashi, Abbott, Chan (if he gets the 3A consistent, and doesn't crack under the pressure), Ponsero (a long shot, and only if he gets consistent, period) and possibly even Lysacek or, heaven help us, Plushy. But not Kozuka, and probably not Johnny Weir, either. Sorry, Johnny.
Of course, if we see a Torino-like men's event, all bets are off as to who gets on the podium in 2010.
2014 is too far in the future to tell who might dominate. How many of us had Buttle and Lambiel pencilled in for medals back in 2001? How many people foresaw Jeremy Abbott emerge as a contender one year ago, let alone five? We could see people move up from juniors, promising careers cut short by injury, favorites messing up (after all, Kurt Browning never won an Olympic medal), and so on.