The USA Nationals - Discussions and comments

[Joesitz (RIP)]

This is not a prediction thread​

You've seen the Campbells; You've seen the GPs; Youv'e seen many of the same skaters in various international competions last year.

1. With Michelle injured, why will Sasha dominate the Ladies Division?
2. What makes (you name 3) the most obvious skaters for the Oly team (in no particular order)?
3. Will Christine Zukowski make a statement at the US Nats?

4. Will Johnny continue to be the best entry into the Olys for the US?
5. Will we see one of the new boys in town getting on the podium?
6. If Weiss, Savoie and Goebel skate poorly at the Nats will this be their finish?
7. How would you see the Men's Oly team (in no particular order)?

8. Will O&L give I&B any real competition this Nats?
9. Will this be the season for H&P to rise to the occasion?
10. Will Miller and Brubaker make a statement at the Nats.
11. In no particular order who are you picks for the Oly team?

12. What woud keep B&A from being the best? Who would be the most liely heir to that position?
13. With G&P very popular can M&Z or S&O overtake them?
14. Given that B&A will NOT skate in the Olys, who are your picks for the Oly team

Joe

 

[dancindiva03]

This is not a prediction thread​

You've seen the Campbells; You've seen the GPs; Youv'e seen many of the same skaters in various international competions last year.

1. With Michelle injured, why will Sasha dominate the Ladies Division?
2. What makes (you name 3) the most obvious skaters for the Oly team (in no particular order)?
3. Will Christine Zukowski make a statement at the US Nats?

4. Will Johnny continue to be the best entry into the Olys for the US?
5. Will we see one of the new boys in town getting on the podium?
6. If Weiss, Savoie and Goebel skate poorly at the Nats will this be their finish?
7. How would you see the Men's Oly team (in no particular order)?

8. Will O&L give I&B any real competition this Nats?
9. Will this be the season for H&P to rise to the occasion?
10. Will Miller and Brubaker make a statement at the Nats.
11. In no particular order who are you picks for the Oly team?

12. What woud keep B&A from being the best? Who would be the most liely heir to that position?
13. With G&P very popular can M&Z or S&O overtake them?
14. Given that B&A will NOT skate in the Olys, who are your picks for the Oly team

Joe

1) I still don't think Sasha will dominate the ladies field, I think that once again she will be her own worst enemy. She MAY win (not that I'm expecting it, but it could happen), but it will not be a cakewalk for her. I think that between not knowing how what condition Michelle will be in, and having to contend with Kimmie's possible 3A and 3-3 combos and Alissa with her new-found confidence and consistancy, Sasha will have enough to get herself all nerved up about and not skate her best.
2) My prediction for the Oly team, in no particular order because there are just too many variables: 1. Michelle. She has been too good for too long not to put her on the team as long as she is able to go out there and prove that she is healthy. While there are many interesting and talented young ladies coming up in the ranks in the US, no one else has perfected the combination of technical and presentation skills that Michelle presents. 2. Sasha, because even if she falls a hundred times there is just no way the judges/USFS are going to keep her off the podium and off the Oly team. I have no idea what her mental state is going to be, but I would think she has the experience and maturity now to hold it together at Nationals. 3. Alissa Czissny, but only if she doesn't fall back into her old habit of crashing on the jumps. If she can keep it together on her jumps, all herother skills are good enough to compete with the big guns at the Olympics, I think right now it is just a mental test for her. If Kimmie shows up at Nats with a clean 3A and a 3-3 she may move ahead of Czissny and onto the Oly team, but I would put a clean Alissa ahead of a clean Kimmie.
3) Christine Zukowski, I think she will do well, maybe top 5, but I don't see her medaling this year. However, I haven't seen much of her at all so who knows?
4) I don't see Johnny repeating as National Champion, but thats more personal preference than anything.
5) I think there could be a new face on the men's podium, but I really haven't seen enough of any of them to say who.
6) I don't know.
7) On the men's oly team I would like to see Evan, Weir, and Ryan Bradley (a long shot, I know, but this isn't a prediction, is it?)
8) I don't see O&L challenging I&B this year, especially if Rena can hold onto the throw 3A, and maybe John can finally land the SBS triple lutz. Presentation wise, I&B are waaaaaaaay ahead of O&L.
9) I hope so. I don't know if Aaron and Marcy have what it takes to move ahead of I&B just yet, but if all three teams skate clean I'd put them ahead of O&L.
10) I don't know, haven't seen them at all yet so I won't make any predictions about them!
11) I&B, H&P, S&F (haven't seen them yet but I hear they are skating very well together, and she is very experienced in competition)
12) What I saw of B&A's FD did not impress me, it seemed very slow, very rough around the edges, very stop-and-start. If they haven't improved upon that, it COULD keep them from keeping the National title, but I don't expect that to happen. In the case that either they have not improved their FD or Ben is not totally recovered, or if they make a few mistakes, G&P would be my choice for gold. Personally, I would have G&P in first anyway just because of personal preference, but still I don't think that B&A have such a commanding lead over G&P that they did in the past.
13) I really don't get what you mean about G&P being "so popular", I've felt that they have been underappreciated and almost ignored by the USFS, and don't get the respect they deserve from a lot of skating fans. If you mean popular with the judges, I think that G&P have earned their bronze and silver medals at Nationals, its not as though they have been held up. No other team has really challenged them for their spot. I don't think that either M&Z or S&O'M have what it takes to beat G&P, though I expect Jamie to be held up a bit based on past performance. It shouldn't be enough to overtake G&P.
14) I'm still not sure who all is eligible and who isn't so my only pick for the Oly team right now is G&P, and probably S&O'M, and I'd like to see S&M make the team as well, not that I think they have any shot at medalling yet but the experience would be good for them.

 

[R.D.]

Sorry for not really getting to the topic at heart but I just have to comment here.

I just DON'T GET this premature crowning of Cohen as National champion. She can be counted on to flub at least once or twice and MK is a question mark. She may either do a respectable job or leave the door open. Based on her 05 Nats performance, though, I don't feel all that confident that she is a shoo-in. Plus, this is Cop- Kwan may no longer have that edge she's always had (unless the judges have it in for her to get number ten, which is always a possibility).

I'm not too sure Kimmie and Alissa can give Cohen a run for her money, but if Cohen flubs more than twice, and they skate clean, Cohen could be pushed to third. But it's VERY unlikely she'll be off the podium, IMO.

 

[mmscfdcsu]

Of course Johnny will get it together! He has so much talent. CoR was better. I hope he continue to improve. Even is on a roll though, so who knows.

http://www.kataniye.com/johnny_weir/Johnny and Amber CoR 2005.jpg

Scroll down and check out the legs! LOL

 

[ElFuego]

1. With Michelle injured, why will Sasha dominate the Ladies Division?
Er, she's got the best whips and chains?


2. What makes (you name 3) the most obvious skaters for the Oly team (in no particular order)?
Inuoe & Baldwin, Orscher & Lucash - because they'll be the last ones standing after the pairs competition is over; and Sasha Cohen because COP loves her.

3. Will Christine Zukowski make a statement at the US Nats?
Has she called a press conference?

4. Will Johnny continue to be the best entry into the Olys for the US?
Er,Lycasek is the one with the world medal, and the one who qualified for the GP final. He might not have Weir's presentation, but he seems to be putting down the most consistent programs.

5. Will we see one of the new boys in town getting on the podium?
I wish, but the USFSA is nothing if not conservative in Olympic years. Unless someone like Ward can skate two clean programs with all the planned content, they'll be ignored.

6. If Weiss, Savoie and Goebel skate poorly at the Nats will this be their finish?
Not sure I understand the question.

7. How would you see the Men's Oly team (in no particular order)?
In a perfect world, Rohene Ward, Matt Savoie, and Ryan Jahnke. But since Ryan Bradley's schlocky empty program is going to Nationals and Braden Overett's clever, packed character work is staying home, I think it's pretty clear that the world is sorely imperfect.

8. Will O&L give I&B any real competition this Nats?
Hm, will the National Champions give the silver medalists any real competition? Hmmmm, what a tricky question you've asked.

9. Will this be the season for H&P to rise to the occasion?
It's US Pairs. Last team standing wins.

10. Will Miller and Brubaker make a statement at the Nats.
Is this another press conference question? M/B have solid singles elements, but their lack of size difference is going to become an issue for success at the senior level.


11. In no particular order who are you picks for the Oly team?
There's too much up in the air wrt to injuries and acts of congress to tell at this point.

12. What woud keep B&A from being the best? Who would be the most liely heir to that position?
This year? Only injury or illness would keep them from the top spot on the podium. Gregory & Pethukov are only place holders until Matthews & Zavozin mature, Wester and Barantsev get citizenship, and Davis & White move up to seniors.

13. With G&P very popular can M&Z or S&O overtake them?
Popular with whom? They're experienced and mature, and are safe enough this season. By next year, look for Wester & Barantsev to overtake them.


14. Given that B&A will NOT skate in the Olys, who are your picks for the Oly team.
Gregory & Petukhov, Galler-Rabinowitz & Mitchell, and Silverstein & O'Meara -- if G-R/M suffer severe political fallout from the whole letter issue then one of either Pratt/Gilles, Navarro & Bommentre, or the USFSA could break precedence and send the likely junior champs (and JGP Final silver medalists and the US second highest COP scoring team behind B&A) Davis & White.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

WOW! Dancindiva and El Fuego. You've given me lots to think about.

Will I at least see Wester and Barantsev? It's like Who are they?; What were they? Who do they hope to be?

Joe

 

[ElFuego]

Will I at least see Wester and Barantsev? It's like Who are they?; What were they? Who do they hope to be?

Joe

Jennifer Wester and Daniil Barantsev train in Morozov's group. Barantsev was two time junior world champion for Russia (with Natalia Romaniuta), but the partnership broke up because of height issues.

They've been skating together since 2003, but the Russian Federation's refusal to release Barantsev and injury issues have prevented them from competing until this season.

At the Lake Placid Competition this August, Wester and Barantsev traded results with Silverstein/O'Meara and Galler-Rabinowitz/Mitchell... W/B won the Yankee Polka and the OD, and finished 3rd in the FD, and two other compulsories.

Based on sectional COP scores, Wester/Barantsev and Silverstein/O'Meara are within a point of each other, which pretty much puts them on track to finish in the top six at Nationals. Both teams will likely displace Stiegler/Magerovsky. I would predict Silverstein/O'Meara to finish 4th (behind B/A, G/P, and M/Z) and Wester/Barantsev to finish 5th.

So yes, you'll probably see them, at least their OD if ESPN is as charitable with ODs as they have been in previous seasons.

In terms of talent, Jennifer is not as expressive as Jamie, but she is not too far behind her in technical skills. Barantsev is far better than O'Meara, and as a team Wester/Barantsev seem to have a better connection with each other than Silverstein/O'Meara (which given that W/B have been skating together for over 2 years, and are engaged, is only logical).

While I love Silverstein, I'm not sure that the S/O'M partnership has long term staying power (in fact I hope not, as I could imagine far better partners for her, i.e. Cheun-Gun Lee.... a Silverstein/Lee partnership would totally blow the top off of any competition, they're both that expressive). Wester/Barantsev seem pretty solid...

... of course, this is US Ice Dance, and things could change tomorrow.

More about W/B here:
http://www.ice-dance.com/wester-barantsev/

 

[dancindiva03]

WOW! Dancindiva and El Fuego. You've given me lots to think about.

Will I at least see Wester and Barantsev? It's like Who are they?; What were they? Who do they hope to be?

Joe

Wow, no one has ever accused me of being thought-provoking! I've been bashed on other boards for basically the same sentiments I wrote down in my post. Glad I could keep your mind active

 

[NanSinger2]

The Ladies and Men

It's been a very different season than I expected in the Olympic year. The past two years have shown the ladies field to be very deep and this year it feels like we have several new women in the "spotlight" of the Sr. Ladies. I enjoy watching Kimmie and I watched Alissa's progress a bit the last couple of years...HOWEVER, I really expected to see Jenny, Angela, Ann Patrice, possibly Naomi or Beatrica. So, for me it's a bit of a different feel. I've been a Michelle fan forever, but I really wanted to see Sasha have a break out year and frankly I've been dissapointed. If Michelle is in top form for Nationals, I think she will be the one to beat there. I feel confident Sasha will be on the podium, but I just wish she could pull it together and keep it together and really reach her potential. We've been watching and waiting for years for her to blossom to that degree and I still feel like she only has moments of greatness.

As for the men, I can't believe the meltdown Tim is having. He was making good progress every season to get rid of those tacky rounded shoulders that made it painful for me to watch him. I don't understand what's going on with him...and Mike? Bless his heart he is an example of someone not willing to give up, even when they are not making positive advances each year. I do enjoy watching Johnny, but without the quad, even with the COP, I think he's going to be held back to a point.

I don't know...I just thought the US would really be ready for this olympic year and it feels like we are really not. All this is just my opinion.

 

[ATW27]

1. With Michelle injured, why will Sasha dominate the Ladies Division?

- Hard to say; Nationals has allways been Kwan's event, more than any other competition. In order to be in the dominant position, I feel Sasha would have to be near perfect in both phases of the compeition (need I repeat her record in this case?), and have Michelle make some mistakes. If they both skate about the same (either both clean, or both with mistakes), I would not be surprised if the judges give the nod to Michelle.

2. What makes (you name 3) the most obvious skaters for the Oly team (in no particular order)?

- I'll come back to this one later.

3. Will Christine Zukowski make a statement at the US Nats?

-I hope so; I'd like to see her. I do have to remind you that she didn't even make the podium at the JGP Final last month. So, top-ten, definate possibility; top-5 or 6, I'm not so sure.

4. Will Johnny continue to be the best entry into the Olys for the US?

- I don't know; Lysacek's certainly been coming on strong. I believe Nationals will be a battle between these two for the Men's title.

5. Will we see one of the new boys in town getting on the podium?

- Anything's possible.

6. If Weiss, Savoie and Goebel skate poorly at the Nats will this be their finish?

- Weiss, and probably Goebel, yes; Savoie, I don't know. But I wouldn't be surprised if it is the end.

7. How would you see the Men's Oly team (in no particular order)?

- Lysacek, Weir, and Goebel

8. Will O&L give I&B any real competition this Nats?

- Hard to say; I&B have had a pretty outstanding start to the season, whereas O&L so far have had a forgetable season (keep in mind they've only had one competition so far). On the other had, O&L usually seem to start the season off on an unfortunate note, but then hit their stride later on (especialy at Nationals). But unlike the last two or so years, I don't think I&B will be their only compeition (see the next answer).

9. Will this be the season for H&P to rise to the occasion?

- Yes; they've had a very good season so far, and I honestlty think the fight for the top spot will be between them and I&B, and perhaps O&L.

10. Will Miller and Brubaker make a statement at the Nats.

- Pretty much same answer as the Zukowski question; I hope so. Very much like to see them. But will point out they had a rough time at the JGP Final, which I think they were expected to win. Instead they finish 3rd. But who knows? maybe that was just a random thing.

11. In no particular order who are you picks for the Oly team?

- Well, if you're talking pairs (and I think you are), then it's I&B and H&P.

12. What woud keep B&A from being the best? Who would be the most liely heir to that position?

- Agosto's injury, probably. As for the heir, hard to say, especially since I think B&A plan on continuing on to the 2010 Games. Looking over the teams I've seen so far, maybe M&Z.

13. With G&P very popular can M&Z or S&O overtake them?

- barring meltdown in at least two phases of the competition, no.

14. Given that B&A will NOT skate in the Olys, who are your picks for the Oly team

- G&P, S&O'M, and G-R&M; unless USFS decides to punish G-R&M, which then It becomes hard, because several of the teams further down the list includes Internationals who's citizenship status I don't know - Danill Barantsev; Sergei Magerovski; Cheng-Gueng Lee (sorry if I screwed his name up), etc.


Andy W.

 

[Sk8harvest]

1. With Michelle injured, why will Sasha dominate the Ladies Division?
I hesitate to give up on Michelle, but I have to say after her shaky showing at the recent cheesefest, I don't know how she can be competitive enough to win at Nats. So will Sasha dominate? She appeared to be healthy at the cheesefest. With 2 clean performances (never a sure thing with Sasha) shecould dominate. But with errors???

2. What makes (you name 3) the most obvious skaters for the Oly team (in no particular order)?
Sasha - no matter how well Michelle, Alissa, Kimmie or Emily do, Sasha will be named to the team. She is the reigning world silver medalist.

3. Will Christine Zukowski make a statement at the US Nats?
I hope to see her in the top five.

4. Will Johnny continue to be the best entry into the Olys for the US?
Hard to say. He has struggled this year. Lysacek has been far more consistent.

5. Will we see one of the new boys in town getting on the podium?
Nope, it will be Weir and Lysacek in some order for 1st and 2nd, then Goebel, Weiss and Savoie in some order.

6. If Weiss, Savoie and Goebel skate poorly at the Nats will this be their finish?
Yes for Weiss and Savoie, maybe for Goebel.

7. How would you see the Men's Oly team (in no particular order)?
Lysacek, Weir and Goebel

8. Will O&L give I&B any real competition this Nats?
Actually, I think the real competition could be with H&P.

9. Will this be the season for H&P to rise to the occasion?
See my answer to #8. Anything can happen in pairs.

10. Will Miller and Brubaker make a statement at the Nats.
Unfortunately not, since they just split up.

11. In no particular order who are you picks for the Oly team?
I&B, H&P

12. What woud keep B&A from being the best? Who would be the most likely heir to that position?
If Agosto's groin injury continues to trouble him, that could cause real problems. As for the heir, I thought Matthews and Zavozin looked very promising at last year's Nats.

13. With G&P very popular can M&Z or S&O overtake them?
Probably not this year, but I think one of these teams will win bronze at Nats.

14. Given that B&A will NOT skate in the Olys, who are your picks for the Oly team
Looks like B&A probably will skate at the Olys based on recent developments. I think it will be B&A, G&P and either S&O or M&Z

 

[R.D.]

So will Sasha dominate? She appeared to be healthy at the cheesefest. With 2 clean performances (never a sure thing with Sasha) shecould dominate. But with errors???

Yeah...errors she's basically GUARANTEED to make. Someone elsewhere said it would be sad if Cohen was beat by one of the other ladies (not Kwan). I think I would actually find it comical in a strange way...

It's very doubtful, though. But it's almost like I want nats to continue to be the Kwan Show. You just can't have a year without a Kwan Show. It just doesn't happen.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Yup. It will be Kwan's show whether or not she skates. Yup. It will be Kwan's show whether she makes the podium or not. It will always be Kwan's show because that's the way it is in Skateland.

Like Mao, her fans have been watching for some time even when Tonya, Nancy, Nicole, looked like winners, Kwan's fans were waiting in the wings.

There is Slutskaya, Lipinsky, Hughes and Cohen, no matter. It is Kwan's show.

Joe

 

[donnar0226]

Yeah...errors she's basically GUARANTEED to make. Someone elsewhere said it would be sad if Cohen was beat by one of the other ladies (not Kwan). I think I would actually find it comical in a strange way...



What is comical that we keep coming back to Cohen making errors--not one of the other skaters given as competition haven't had a complete meltdown--Alissa and Emily at Campbells, Kimmie in both of the GP's in one portion of the competition or the other...so why the expectation that to win Cohen has to be perfect? How likely any of the others will be either!

 

[R.D.]

I never said Cohen had to be perfect. In fact, I never expect her to be. It will be a shock IMO if she manages to pull it together at either Nats or Olys. If it happens at both, then I think the end of the world just arrived. OK, maybe that's going a bit far, but you get the point...

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I never said Cohen had to be perfect. In fact, I never expect her to be. It will be a shock IMO if she manages to pull it together at either Nats or Olys. If it happens at both, then I think the end of the world just arrived. OK, maybe that's going a bit far, but you get the point...

Do you think Kimmie might beat her?

Joe

 

[flying camel]

I hope a newcomer steals the spotlight in the ladies. That is the type of competition I like. The unexpected!

 

[R.D.]

Do you think Kimmie might beat her?

Joe

Hmm. I would think not, but that's based on the results from the GPs. Kimmie's NHK score was somewhere in the 150s (don't know exactly what it was), while Cohen's score was nearly 20 points higher. And that's with a flawed FS. I really think Cohen has more of the "whole package" that Meissner lacks which should put her comfortably ahead of Kimmie even with a mistake or two. But ANYTHING can happen. If Cohen has a Winter Event type of meltdown AND one of the others has the once in a lifetime skate, the judges might have no choice but to place Cohen lower. But she's still going to the Olys- as another poster pointed out, she's still the reigning silver medallist.

Now, if Kimmie brings her best, then she might be able to put the pressure on Cohen to perform. And we know how she does in those situations.

I STILL think people are underestimating MK, though. I so would not rule out a comeback by her. It may not be likely but it's not impossible, either.

And the other two- Alissa and Emily- doubtful. One of them may be able to squeeze in on the Oly team if for any reason MK has to pull out.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

RD - You just wont commit to who will win the Nationals. That's ok. It wont be Sasha nor Kimmie and that's just about all there is going at US Nats. The others are even more iffy.

Joe

 

[R.D.]

RD - You just wont commit to who will win the Nationals. That's ok. It wont be Sasha nor Kimmie and that's just about all there is going at US Nats. The others are even more iffy.

Joe

I predicted MK to win in the previous three years (and was right). Now, I think it could go either way depending on who brings it- it will be either MK or SC. I don't see anyone else winning.