Thoughts on Ladies' FS at Russian Nats?

readernick

Medalist
Joined
Dec 5, 2015
I

Do you think even 3 quads will be enough to beat a clean Anna? I feel like since she's behind Anna in every other catagory that even 3 quads would only barely pass her.
In Russia no, but outside of Russia with stricter technical calling yes. Anna won't get those GOE's internationally. ( And she would get a few URs) Valieva will get higher GOEs, but Trusova can beat her if she is clean. ( Tough ask)

Anyway, great event! I was underwhelmed with the SP, but the LP made up for that. Really brave skates for all of the girls, especially Anna, I hope she is proud of her accomplishment and can rest now. She needs rest, and deserves rest!
 

vorravorra

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 9, 2016
Yeah, but had she started the season lower and up-ed the tech gradually towards the Nationals, the result today could have been different. Of course, this is only a could have should have discussion, we don't know at the end. But to throw multiple quads and 3As at the GP and then get injured for the most important competition of the season didn't get great results as well.
Sasha didn't get injured at the GP because of all those quads, she was already injured there and you could see it from the practices. The coaches tried to convince her not to go for all the quads but she insisted. It took physical inability to jump anything but lutzes to change things. Maybe things will be somewhat different now going forward.
 

chasingneverland

Medalist
Joined
Dec 31, 2019
In Russia no, but outside of Russia with stricter technical calling yes. Anna won't get those GOE's internationally. ( And she would get a few URs) Valieva will get higher GOEs, but Trusova can beat her if she is clean. ( Tough ask)

Anyway, great event! I was underwhelmed with the SP, but the LP made up for that. Really brave skates for all of the girls, especially Anna, I hope she is proud of her accomplishment and can rest now. She needs rest, and deserves rest!
Actually Anna does tend to outscore Sasha internationally, even when she doesn't get as high GOE. At the GPF last year, Anna had 4Lz-3T, 4F (fall), and 4Lz (<), so 1/3 clean quads. (Anna's 4Lz-3T scored a 19.15.) Sasha had 4F, 2S (4S pop), 4Lz, 4T-1Eu-3S, and 4T (< fall) so 3/5?clean quads. (Sasha's backloaded 4T-1Eu-3S scored a 18.44.) Anna's TES was a 94.52 whereas Sasha's was a 96.60. However, the real difference was in PCS where Sasha got a 65.93 (with a fall) and Anna got a 69.13 (with a fall). Anna more than makes up the difference in quads in PCS. Similarly at Euros, Anna had a 4Lz-3T, 4F (<), and 4Lz (<< fall) so once again 1/3 clean quads. (Anna's 4Lz-3T scored a 19.31.) Sasha had a 4Lz (fall), 4T-3T, 3F (4F pop), 4T (<< fall) so 1/4? clean quads. (Sasha's 4T-3T scored a 16.96.) Anna's TES was 89.62 while Sasha's was 85.14. However, once again the real difference is in PCS where Anna got a 71.19 (with a fall) while Sasha got 67.25 (with two falls.) Here actually, Anna's PCS almost reached Alena's who got 72.58 (with a fall.) All that to say, as long as Anna doesn't fall and rotates, she will score well as they haven't called her edges recently, especially if she can get her 4Lz-3T back. And she will outscore Sasha on PCS (by about 4/5 points).
 

readernick

Medalist
Joined
Dec 5, 2015
Actually Anna does tend to outscore Sasha internationally, even when she doesn't get as high GOE. At the GPF last year, Anna had 4Lz-3T, 4F (fall), and 4Lz (<), so 1/3 clean quads. (Anna's 4Lz-3T scored a 19.15.) Sasha had 4F, 2S (4S pop), 4Lz, 4T-1Eu-3S, and 4T (< fall) so 3/5?clean quads. (Sasha's backloaded 4T-1Eu-3S scored a 18.44.) Anna's TES was a 94.52 whereas Sasha's was a 96.60. However, the real difference was in PCS where Sasha got a 65.93 (with a fall) and Anna got a 69.13 (with a fall). Anna more than makes up the difference in quads in PCS. Similarly at Euros, Anna had a 4Lz-3T, 4F (<), and 4Lz (<< fall) so once again 1/3 clean quads. (Anna's 4Lz-3T scored a 19.31.) Sasha had a 4Lz (fall), 4T-3T, 3F (4F pop), 4T (<< fall) so 1/4? clean quads. (Sasha's 4T-3T scored a 16.96.) Anna's TES was 89.62 while Sasha's was 85.14. However, once again the real difference is in PCS where Anna got a 71.19 (with a fall) while Sasha got 67.25 (with two falls.) Here actually, Anna's PCS almost reached Alena's who got 72.58 (with a fall.) All that to say, as long as Anna doesn't fall and rotates, she will score well as they haven't called her edges recently, especially if she can get her 4Lz-3T back. And she will outscore Sasha on PCS (by about 4/5 points).
Don't disagree. However, the originally poster was suggesting 3/4 clean quads from Sasha wouldn't be enough to beat Anna and that just isn't true internationally because Anna gets ( and would have gotten for even this amazing gutsy reckless skate) some URs and lower GOE internationally. If Sasha/ Anna have the same number of clean quads, obviously Anna wins. But, Sasha with 3/4 good clean quads ( and the rest of her program clean) will win internationally but probably not domestically.
 

chasingneverland

Medalist
Joined
Dec 31, 2019
Don't disagree. However, the originally poster was suggesting 3/4 clean quads from Sasha wouldn't be enough to beat Anna and that just isn't true internationally because Anna gets ( and would have gotten for even this amazing gutsy reckless skate) some URs and lower GOE internationally. If Sasha/ Anna have the same number of clean quads, obviously Anna wins. But, Sasha with 3/4 good clean quads ( and the rest of her program clean) will win internationally but probably not domestically.
Actually Anna with 1/3 clean quads (including a fall and an under rotation) beats Sasha with 3 clean quads (plus 1 pop and 1 under rotation). So even internationally, it's not guaranteed that Sasha would win, mostly due to PCS, where Anna's are higher.
 

readernick

Medalist
Joined
Dec 5, 2015
Actually Anna with 1/3 clean quads (including a fall and an under rotation) beats Sasha with 3 clean quads (plus 1 pop and 1 under rotation). So even internationally, it's not guaranteed that Sasha would win, mostly due to PCS, where Anna's are higher.
I think the numbers disagree. Sasha would win mathematically if completely clean. You are using competitions where Sasha popped ( the worst thing a skater can do points wise) and made many visible mistakes. With a 3/4 quad completely clean performance she wins.. Numbers don't lie. ( But, the likelihood of her doing that is slim) Honestly, neither of these girls are particular favorites of mine. I hold them in high respect and find them to be amazing athletes. But Alena K. And Ksenia S. are the skaters who hold my heart in Russia. So, this isn't about who I like better, it's just math.
 
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chasingneverland

Medalist
Joined
Dec 31, 2019
I think the numbers disagree. Sasha would win mathematically if completely clean. You are using competitions where Sasha popped ( the worst thing a skater can do points wise) and made many visible mistakes. With a 3/4 quad completely clean performance she wins.. Numbers don't lie. ( But, the likely hood of her doing that is slim) Honestly, neither of these girls are particular favorites of mine. I hold them in high respect and find them to be amazing athletes. But Alena K. And Ksenia S. are the skaters who hold my heart in Russia. So, this isn't about who I like better, it's just math.
I actually think the numbers agree. Especially since Anna wasn't completely clean either. I think it they both do 3 quads and are clean, Anna wins, and she might even win if Sasha does 4 quads and is clean everywhere else. At Euros, Anna had 4Lz-3T, 4F (<) and 4Lz (<< F) as well as on her backloaded 3Lz-3Lo (<), so calls on 3/4 of her highest scoring elements, including 1 fall and 3 under rotations, and only 1 clean quad, and she STILL got 89.62 in TES and 71.19 in PCS. That was also Anna's worst skate all season. With a fall on her 4F and an under rotation on her 4Lz , Anna climbs up to a 94.52 in TES (as she did at GPF). Even if you keep the under rotation, just by not falling on the 4F, she gains another 5/6 points not even counting positive GOE.

EDIT: Anna's also going to get another PCS bump as the 3x Russian national champion and Russia's number 1. (She wasn't number 1 last year, despite winning nationals, Alena was number 1.) In the absence of Alina and Evgenia, as well as with Alena not having her 3A yet, she's going to have her PCS increase, especially as her senior debut was wonderful (losing only to Alena) and she's no longer a first year senior.
 
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Skatefan15

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 8, 2015
There were some obvious calls that were ignored for some ( :palmf: ) but the depth in Russian ladies is amazing (and that’s without Evgenia and Aliona). I really enjoyed Sasha the most today— I could really see her improvement, but Anna was good as well (I wasn’t sure she was going to make it — I still think she should’ve withdrawn because this free skate could’ve went a completely different way but still...Congrats!) I also really enjoyed Liza N and Sofia!
 

readernick

Medalist
Joined
Dec 5, 2015
I actually think the numbers agree.
We can agree to disagree. But, who holds the WR for fs score internationally. It isn't Anna. And, in that competition Sasha landed 3 clean quads and definitely wasn't overscored as much as the overscored Euro competition last year. Anyway, this isn't a necessary argument. Happy for the strong ladies. I hope they all recover and continue to get stronger! :pray::pray::)
 
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chasingneverland

Medalist
Joined
Dec 31, 2019
We can agree to disagree. But, who holds the WR for fs score internationally. It isn't Anna. And, in that competition Sasha landed 3 clean quads and definitely wasn't overscored as much as the overscored Euro competition last year. Anyway, this isn't a necessary argument. Happy for the strong ladies. I hope they all recover and continue to get stronger! :pray::pray::)
No it isn't. But that was before Anna landed 3 quads in competition and repeated as Russian national champion. She's done that again now, so I expect her score to rise. I'm not saying Sasha won't win, I'm just saying those who expect Anna not to score well (if clean) internationally are probably going to be surprised, especially with Anna's PCS boost and Russian politics now that she's number 1. I expect her to start to get Alena PCS soon (even potentially Alina/Evgenia PCS). (Remember also that Evgenia didn't used to get calls internationally on her jumps.)

Also, Anna with only 1/3 clean quads (including a fall and an under rotation) has 94.52 TES (as she did at GPF). That's only 6 points behind Sasha's clean WR TES score with 3 clean quads. She makes that up just by staying upright even without positive GOE (and just 0) by getting +5.5 and +1 so plus 6.5 just by not falling on the jump. Just by that she beats Sasha's WR TES score, not to mention she usually gets 4/5 points extra on PCS already and will probably get even more now.

EDIT: Agreed on being happy for beautiful skates today and hoping they all continue to get stronger! (And all can!)
 
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NAOTMAA

Medalist
Joined
Nov 9, 2014
I don't think Aleksandra was lowballed at all. If anything I think she simply received no real nationals inflation bonus and that's not lowballing. Internationally her scores would likely be very similar if not a tiny bit lower. Yes Anna and Kamila received a big nationals bonus but anyone believing their international scores will dip so low compared to nationals that Aleksandra comes out a winner (or almost winner) are only deluding themselves. They will still beat her because the international judging we have seen so far easily points in that direction.

And yes favoritism played a roll but its hardly the corruption people are implying. All federations play favorites. Just look at the scores at this years Skate America
 

chasingneverland

Medalist
Joined
Dec 31, 2019
I don't think Aleksandra was lowballed at all. If anything I think she simply received no real nationals inflation bonus and that's not lowballing. Internationally her scores would likely be very similar if not a tiny bit lower. Yes Anna and Kamila received a big nationals bonus but anyone believing their international scores will dip so low compared to nationals that Aleksandra comes out a winner (or almost winner) are only deluding themselves. They will still beat her because the international judging easily points in that direction.

And yes favoritism played a roll but its hardly the corruption people are implying. All federations play favorites. Just look at the scores at this years Skate America
Yeah, agreed. Also, see Japan, which are known for not tending to overscore domestically and even still look at Rika and Kaori compared to the rest. (Kaori especially and I LOVE her.)
 

Greengemmonster

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 22, 2019
OMG! I'm in tears! That was incredible! I cried, Anna cried, Eteri cried 😭😂

Trusova: She did a fantastic job. She was wonderful and I enjoyed every minute of that performance. Special shout out to the fabulous 3Lutz3loop. There was nothing I wish she had done better. She was just competing against other, also amazing, young ladies.

Kamila: I loved her performance best but that is purely subjective as she a certain quality which very much appeals to me. This is her best performance of Bolero ever, loved the intensity in her eyes at the end of the routine. Those sky high quads are fabulous and I am so so so thrilled that she was clean. It was a very clean and very crisp performance. She was brilliant. Her spins remind me of my cake beater blades. Fast and uniform without loss of speed.

Anna: My sentimental favourite for the purposes of this competition. I so so so badly wanted her to do well, get her 3peat and she nailed it! After the spin, just before she launched into her step sequence, her face lit up with jubilance and it was simply wonderful to see that pure happiness. The lightness with which she landed her quads was a sight to behold. I read somewhere that she never did a final run through of her program and this performance was it? That is true genius and talent right there.

Well done ladies!!!
 

RatedPG

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 21, 2018
Country
Canada
Just wondering if people can estimate what Anna, Kamila, Alexandra and Daria would have scored if these performances would have been judged by an international panel. Do you think Anna’s SP and LP combined in this competition is better than Alena K. International record of 247 with three triple axels? Just curious to get peoples perspective of what calls and GOEs would have been given to these Russian superstars.
 

Artemisa

Final Flight
Joined
Sep 15, 2017
- Sasha - was her best performances in the LP but she needs one or even two quads to beat anna or kamila. It was a great program but them Kamila skates .. and her program looked rough
-Valieva - that skate was brilliant... I'm not a fan of her but after her skate my only thought was I saw the light
- Anna - that girls deserves that .. after kamila and sasha skating ... she goes to the ice and didn't miss...her programs are boring if you compare to kamila or maia ... but the girl doesn't miss .. like she is a flower made of steal..and for that she deserves it
- Dasha - she is like kostornaia 2.0 .. if she gets a 4 or 3A she truly can compete with the rest of the pack .. she skated the same program of sasha
-Maia - I loved both of her programs.. like the younger child that people don't pay attention .. but when she lands that 4 ...
_ Liza T. - she needs to learn how not to loose points (and that goes for all ladies in Mishin group) .. that's her big problem
_ Liza N. - was great


the emotion on Eteri's face and all the team -> once again she proved to be the best ladies coach in russia
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
I could still believe that Trusova might win gold if stars align, but I have a harder time believing Khromykh is capable of landing 4S. She looks so shaky on every jump she does make, unlike the other ladies. It is getting tiring watching her attempts that are nowhere near close. I wouldn’t believe she has 80% or so success rate in practice with how she fails them in competitions. As for her not being noticed, there is simply a plethora of brighter, more intriguing skaters with more charisma/better programs or personal preference of people.

I am curious if Frolova can come back with her quad, mentioned by Davydov, this season or if it is too troubled for her to think of it.
 
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skylark

Gazing at a Glorious Great Lakes sunset
Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 12, 2014
Anna's free skate was dazzling on so many levels. Her two quads and all her jumps earned all those sky-high GOEs. For me, it's her artistry, delicacy, steel-flower strength and the radiance of her face and feeling as she skates that carry her above the rest. Just so well done.

After she skated, Ted said something like, I wonder if she'll place first ... and I don't care. That's how I felt. It's the experience of living that skate with Anna that I found thrilling. I'll re-watch this one and will probably seek out more of her past ones too.
 
Joined
Dec 29, 2020
Country
Russia
Wow, what a championship it was! Finally, clean skating from Sasha and even this was not enough to win over Anna and Kamila. Two clean quads per each of top-3!

Funny enough, I wanted just to mention that at none of these three last Russian nationals Anna was considered as a front-runner: in 2018 everyone was betting on Trusova, in 2019 – on Kostornaya and now on Kamila. And still she was so determined and cold-blooded to do everything possible and to win!
 

Jeanie19

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
Country
United-States
Wow, what a championship it was! Finally, clean skating from Sasha and even this was not enough to win over Anna and Kamila. Two clean quads per each of top-3!

Funny enough, I wanted just to mention that at none of these three last Russian nationals Anna was considered as a front-runner: in 2018 everyone was betting on Trusova, in 2019 – on Kostornaya and now on Kamila. And still she was so determined and cold-blooded to do everything possible and to win

Great first post . Welcome to Golden skate. Post often.
 

moriel

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 18, 2015
Just wondering if people can estimate what Anna, Kamila, Alexandra and Daria would have scored if these performances would have been judged by an international panel. Do you think Anna’s SP and LP combined in this competition is better than Alena K. International record of 247 with three triple axels? Just curious to get peoples perspective of what calls and GOEs would have been given to these Russian superstars.
Id say those scores would be in th 230-250 range, with somewhat lower GOEs and edge / UR calls here and there or all 3 girls.
The order would remain the same.
 
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