Turin 2006 - The Best May Not be Allowed to Skate (non-spoiler)

[Frau Muller]

A similar discussion is going on in one of the Grand Prix spoiler threads, so I'm beginning this topic for this general forum.

We are facing the very real possibility that the 2006 Winter Olympic Games will take place without what may be the best skaters in two of the four skating disciplines: Belbin/Agosto in Dance (due to citizenship problems) and Mao Asada in Ladies (due to age limit).

This doesn't even take into account injuries...or we could say that even the Pairs event may be missing "the best" (Shen/Zhao). [As for Men's....let's hope for a healthy Plushenko this season, or we might be looking at FOUR out of four skating events with major gaps.]

How does this bode for the upcoming Olympics? Regardness of who wins, in the end, won't there always be a feeling that "If only XXXX were in Turin, the results would have been different..."?

Your thoughts....take it away!

 

[attyfan]

There is always "a feeling that `If only XXXX were in [Olys], the results would have been different...?'", wher if XXXX doesn't refer to a specific skater, then it refers to a judge, or to a country who didn't get a judge on the panel.

If you are asking about the specific reasons for keeping out some of the best, I think the answer varies. I like the idea of an age limit; it is too difficult for youngsters to keep their heads amidst all the attention if they win the OGM (think Oksana Baiul), not to mention the risk of injury on a person too young to secure their own medical care. Citizenship is different because there were too many press releases during the Athens Olys, when a member of the Iranian judo team "gained too much weight" when scheduled to compete against an Israeli, that quoted the IOC has stating that Olys were supposed to be competitions between atheletes and teams, not between countries (explaining why the IOC should sanction the athlete, which, of course, it did not do). IMO, if the event is not between countries, then citizenship should not be required; if the IOC wants to continue to require citizenship, then it should change the press releases.

 

[slutskayafan21]

As great as Asada and Belbin/Agosto have been, there is no basis to refer to either of them "as the best" or the "the likely Champions had they been able to compete". Belbin/Agosto have never beaten Navka/Kostamarov in competition, and have to do so, probably more than once, to be referred to as the best or the likely OGM had they been entered. As for Asada she has been incredable in her debut as a Senior, and already looks like one of the best, and a huge threat had she been Oly-eligable, but in her lone meeting with Slutskaya she was demolished losing by an enormous margin. There is no reason for her to yet be considered the best either, one of the best yes, not the best.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Also have to add while many prefer Shen/Zhou to Totmianina/Marinin, Totmianina/Marinin are 3-2 head to head vs Shen/Zhou since the start of the 2002-2003 season, and have split the 2 World titles and 2 Grand Prix wins where both teams were entered in this quadrennial.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

I rather enjoyed watching the German pair team Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy compete at Skate Canada. Like Belbin and Agosto, they are also having citizenship issues that will most likely prevent them from competing in Turin. Aliona is Ukrainian and won't recieve her German citizenship in time for the Olympics, a situation that is almost identical to Tanith's(besides the fact that Tanith still has a shot at competing....I don't think that Aliona has any chance of getting her citizenship in time for Turin at all).

It's unfortunate as well, because I honestly see this team having a shot at winning an OIympic medal, especially if Shen and Zhao are unable to compete. Who does that leave? Petrova and Tikhonov? Totmianina and Marinin? I prefer their style to both of these Russian teams(I've never been a fan of either team), and they've already beaten Petrova and Tikhonov this year. Even if Shen and Zhao do compete, I can still see them winning a silver or bronze medal which is probably equal to what Belbin and Agosto are looking at(mainly the silver medal, behind Navka and Kostomarov). I look forward to seeing them compete against the best in the field at the GPF as I'm sure the results will shed light on the probable results of the pairs competition in Turin.

As for Mao Asada, I agree that she has a great amount of talent, but I don't think she would medal in Turin if she was to compete. Irina will win this gold medal, followed by Michelle and Sasha(in whatever order, but there is the ladies Olympic podium right there). Mao, Shizuka, Elena, Karolina, and either Alissa or Kimmie(whoever is the 3rd lady to qualify for the US) will battle it out for places 4th-8th at the games(if Mao competes). I think they mentioned at Cup of China that the Japanese Federation will try to fight Mao's ineligibility and push them to allow her to compete in Turin, does anyone know if they have done anything yet and how far they plan to take it if they do? Does she have a shot at being able to compete at all?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Plushenko's knee has never given him a problem in skating. In Moscow Worlds it was groin injuries which have now healed. Unless someth detrimental has happened to his knees, he should be fine.

Joe

 

[soogar]

Irina will win this gold medal, followed by Michelle and Sasha(in whatever order, but there is the ladies Olympic podium right there). Mao, Shizuka, Elena, Karolina, and either Alissa or Kimmie(whoever is the 3rd lady to qualify for the US) will battle it out for places 4th-8th at the games(if Mao competes). I think they mentioned at Cup of China that the Japanese Federation will try to fight Mao's ineligibility and push them to allow her to compete in Turin, does anyone know if they have done anything yet and how far they plan to take it if they do? Does she have a shot at being able to compete at all?

The Japanese Fed can fight all they want, I highly doubt the ISU will permit her to compete. If they do, I hope the S. Korean Fed screams as they made the choice for Kim to compete in juniors this year and as a result, sent a lesser skater to secure a spot at Karl Schaefer and did not get one. While I don't believe in age restrictions, it wouldn't make sense to change the rules so late in the game, esp when other feds made decisions based on the rules for their skaters.

I don't believe for a second that Irina's win is carved in stone. Though if Irina brings it like she's been doing for the past few competitions, then she will be tough to beat. I don't even care for Irina's skating but I hope she does win the OGM just because she inspires such vitriol on the boards.

 

[thisthingcalledlove]

Again, why aren't these athletes writing to the IOC? The IOC made the exception with Drobiazko and Vanagas in 1992, when Rita was still a Soviet/Russian citizen, and Povilas was the lone Lithuanian citizen. They wrote to the IOC, and the IOC allowed them to compete.

 

[soogar]

Again, why aren't these athletes writing to the IOC? The IOC made the exception with Drobiazko and Vanagas in 1992, when Rita was still a Soviet/Russian citizen, and Povilas was the lone Lithuanian citizen. They wrote to the IOC, and the IOC allowed them to compete.

Wasn't that the period when the Soviet Union broke up? That was a weird situation because athletes from all these states were grouped together as Soviets under the old regime. I don't know when this team was formed, but arguing that they were formed before the break up, they were more at the mercy of the system (though they benefitted from the breakup- more couples from the former Soviet Union could compete). Tanith and Ben don't ignite that same sympathy. They can't compete because she is having problems getting citizenship from the US. It's not the ISU's fault that she can't get citizenship. They both knew from the inception of their partnership that they would have citizenship issues.

 

[STL_Blues_fan]

Again, why aren't these athletes writing to the IOC? The IOC made the exception with Drobiazko and Vanagas in 1992, when Rita was still a Soviet/Russian citizen, and Povilas was the lone Lithuanian citizen. They wrote to the IOC, and the IOC allowed them to compete.

I think that a special cirmcustance - following the break up of the Soviet Union some people ended up being the citizens of the republic they really did not have any ethnic ties to, but lived there because they moved to study and obtained a resident permit. It was probably a lot murkier than this. Rita is actually enthnically Ukranian but was born in Moscow. I am sure that IOC would've made the same exeption for a team coming from 2 former Yugoslavian states or from Slovakia and Czech republic. Now, 15 years later, most likely they won't.

Do you mean 1994 Olympics? I was under impression that in 1992, even though USSR had dissolved, it still competed as a unified team. Or did it not include the Baltic states?

Anyways, I am not sure that Tanith may get the citizenship requirement waived from the IOC, it's all up to US making her a citizen.

Yana

 

[soogar]

Do you mean 1994 Olympics? I was under impression that in 1992, even though USSR had dissolved, it still competed as a unified team. Or did it not include the Baltic states?

Yana

I could be mistaken, but didn't Lithuania send an Olympic basketball team to the 1992 summer games? I know they were the first to break off and form a country.

 

[attyfan]

IIRC, in '92, Russia and a lot (but not all) of the former "Soviet Socialist Republics" competed as a "unified" team; for example, the men's team was Ukrainian Viktor Petrenko and Russian Alexei Urmanov. A few of the former Republics -- who actually had their post-Soviet governments set up competed as a separate and independent country.

 

[STL_Blues_fan]

soogar, i see we posted the same type of arguement at the same time.

All 3 Baltic states were the first ones to leave the Soviet Union, so I can imagine them not competing with the rest of CIS. Kind of unlucky for Victor that Ukraine was one of those republics that competed with CIS and he couldn't see his flag raised when he won the medal (now, I can see this being the case where patriotic feelings surface).

I really don't remember all the shuffling going on back in 1992, have to look it up. Thanks for the response, attyfan and soogar.

Yana

 

[euterpe]

The age rules are written in stone, as they are part of the General Regulations for Figure Skating. If the JF wanted Mao to compete in Torino, they would have had to start campaigning for that last year or even earlier, because changing the rule or adding a clause to deal with exceptions, would have to have been done at the ISU meeting in the late spring. However, even if the JF HAD proposed such an amendment, it is very unlikely that it would be accepted, since only Japan and possibly Korea would have benefitted by such a change.

The rule was purposely changed in the first place to prevent any more 15-year-olds from winning the OGM and leaving eligible skating. The JF can complain and petition all it wants, but Mao is not going to be given an exception.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I rather enjoyed watching the German pair team Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy compete at Skate Canada. Like Belbin and Agosto, they are also having citizenship issues that will most likely prevent them from competing in Turin. Aliona is Ukrainian and won't recieve her German citizenship in time for the Olympics, a situation that is almost identical to Tanith's(besides the fact that Tanith still has a shot at competing....I don't think that Aliona has any chance of getting her citizenship in time for Turin at all).

It's unfortunate as well, because I honestly see this team having a shot at winning an OIympic medal, especially if Shen and Zhao are unable to compete. Who does that leave? Petrova and Tikhonov? Totmianina and Marinin? I prefer their style to both of these Russian teams(I've never been a fan of either team), and they've already beaten Petrova and Tikhonov this year. Even if Shen and Zhao do compete, I can still see them winning a silver or bronze medal which is probably equal to what Belbin and Agosto are looking at(mainly the silver medal, behind Navka and Kostomarov). I look forward to seeing them compete against the best in the field at the GPF as I'm sure the results will shed light on the probable results of the pairs competition in Turin.

I have to disagree that the Germans could be fighting with Totmianina/Marinin for any particular place. Totmianina/Marinin and Shen/Zhou have been head and shoulders above the rest of the contenders for the last 4 years, and would be a lock to beat anybody else in the field; in other words if Shen/Zhou dont go to Turin Totmianina/Marinin are a lock, and if Shen/Zhou are in Turin everybody else is fighting for bronze.

Also while they beat Petrova/Tikhonov at Skate Canada, Petrova/Tikhonov doubled a key side-by-side triple in both programs; although the Germans can skate better than they did in the final free program as well. I agree they could have fought for the bronze in Turin if Shen/Zhou are there, silver if Shen/Zhou are not there. However dont forget about Pang/Tong or Zhang/Zhang as well. Both teams have started the year off hot, and while Pang/Tong have still been defeated by both aforementioned Russian teams, both of these teams are not to be ignored in the medal chase. If Inoue/Baldwin can get that throw triple axel, they might even be a medal dark horse, I am impressed with their improvement this year.

All in all Savchenko/Szowkoly would have to really bring it, and skate much better than they did even at Skate Canada, to win any medal vs Totmianina/Marinin, Petrova/Tikhonov, Pang/Tong, and Zhang/Zhang; even if Shen/Zhou dont compete.

As for Mao Asada, I agree that she has a great amount of talent, but I don't think she would medal in Turin if she was to compete. Irina will win this gold medal, followed by Michelle and Sasha(in whatever order, but there is the ladies Olympic podium right there). Mao, Shizuka, Elena, Karolina, and either Alissa or Kimmie(whoever is the 3rd lady to qualify for the US) will battle it out for places 4th-8th at the games(if Mao competes). I think they mentioned at Cup of China that the Japanese Federation will try to fight Mao's ineligibility and push them to allow her to compete in Turin, does anyone know if they have done anything yet and how far they plan to take it if they do? Does she have a shot at being able to compete at all?

Disagree strongly. If Mao was somehow eligable for Turin, she would be a major medal contender. She has already beaten Cohen, beaten Arakwara twice, Kwan has not even skated yet and nobody knows how strong she will be under COP this year especially coming off injury, the others are all iffy right now.

 

[Frau Muller]

I wish that the IOC would rule that winners of the Dec 2005 Grand Prix would automatically get 'byes' into the Olympics, regardless of rules. Wouldn't that make a tremendous Grand Prix finals???? B/A trying to beat N/K and Asada trying to beat Slutskaya????

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

I have to disagree that the Germans could be fighting with Totmianina/Marinin for any particular place. Totmianina/Marinin and Shen/Zhou have been head and shoulders above the rest of the contenders for the last 4 years, and would be a lock to beat anybody else in the field; in other words if Shen/Zhou dont go to Turin Totmianina/Marinin are a lock, and if Shen/Zhou are in Turin everybody else is fighting for bronze.

Also while they beat Petrova/Tikhonov at Skate Canada, Petrova/Tikhonov doubled a key side-by-side triple in both programs; although the Germans can skate better than they did in the final free program as well. I agree they could have fought for the bronze in Turin if Shen/Zhou are there, silver if Shen/Zhou are not there. However dont forget about Pang/Tong or Zhang/Zhang as well. Both teams have started the year off hot, and while Pang/Tong have still been defeated by both aforementioned Russian teams, both of these teams are not to be ignored in the medal chase. If Inoue/Baldwin can get that throw triple axel, they might even be a medal dark horse, I am impressed with their improvement this year.

Totmianina and Marinin are a lock for Olympic gold without Shen and Zhao competing? I honestly hope Shen and Zhao compete for this very reason. It's honestly no fun if you know who is going to win ahead of time. I honestly think Shen and Zhao deserve the OGM over Totmianina and Marinin, and I'm pretty sure that they will be the pair on top in Turin if they can go. Like I said above, I've never been a fan of Totmianina and Marinin or Petrova and Tikhonov, so I'm kind of rooting for any other pair besides the Russians in this Olympics. While I think that Shen and Zhao are a lock for the OGM, I still feel that a flawless Savchenko and Szowkoly could overtake a flawed Totmianina and Marinin and most certainly a flawed Petrova and Tikhonov as shown at Skate Canada. I'm glad you brought up the other two Chinese teams though as I had completely forgotten about them. This definitely changes things. I honestly have no idea if I would put money on Savchenko and Szowkoly beating either Chinese team, but the match up will be interesting to watch at the GPF(granted all teams qualify). I'll probably have formed an opinion by the time the GPF is over.

All in all Savchenko/Szowkoly would have to really bring it, and skate much better than they did even at Skate Canada, to win any medal vs Totmianina/Marinin, Petrova/Tikhonov, Pang/Tong, and Zhang/Zhang; even if Shen/Zhou dont compete.

I can see your point now, although I'm not losing hope at their chances of a bronze medal, and MAYBE a silver(if Shen and Zhao don't go) if by some miracle they are able to compete in Turin. If not, then I will enjoy watching them in the future and will be looking forward to seeing them in 2010, along with other new pair teams on the scene, Marcy Hinzmann/Aaron Parchem and Anabelle Langlois/Cody Hay.

Disagree strongly. If Mao was somehow eligable for Turin, she would be a major medal contender. She has already beaten Cohen, beaten Arakwara twice, Kwan has not even skated yet and nobody knows how strong she will be under COP this year especially coming off injury, the others are all iffy right now.

She did beat Cohen, didn't she....perhaps she does have a chance, but ONLY if Michelle and Sasha are both flawed. Judging by your screen name, you probably agree with me that Irina has this gold medal in the bag. The silver and bronze medal generally seem up in there air, although I have a hunch that regardless of Mao's performance(not that she could go), it would be Irina, Michelle, and Sasha on the podium in Turin. These three ladies seem to be the favorites and even though I've heard of Olympic surprises and upsets(think Sarah Hughes), I have no doubts that this will be the Olympic podium right now(of course we still have to see what happens in the GPF and US Nationals).

The next couple of months should be VERY interesting....

 

[Linny]

The best are NEVER there

The silly rules by which 1, 2 or 3 athletes go based on country mean that the best in the world are NEVER there. In certain countries, the 9th best skater is better than the best skater from another country, but that best skater gets to go. Ridiculous.
Linny

 

[tripleflutz]

I think the JAPAN Federation is waiting to see which skaters they want to put on their Ladies team, since they have about a half dozen ladies that might be included. They probably wont make their decision until a few weeks before the Olympics starting date. But, If they decide that they want Mao to go, I dont see how the ISU can block her, since the Olympics are an IOC event and there aren't any IOC rules that would prohibit her from competing.
I think its OK for the ISU to set age restrictions for their own events(Worlds), but to bar Mao from an IOC event is going too far. If JAPAN wants to send her, and the ISU doesn't give in, I think the JAPAN Federation may challange the ISU in court. But, however it turns out, it could cause a rift between $peedy and the JAPAN Federation, and if there is a court ruling against the ISU allowing JAPAN to send Mao in spite of ISU opposition, it could weaken the ISU's position as sole lords and masters of figure skating as regards the Olympics. And that would be a VERY GOOD THING!!! Anything that would weaken the $peedy dominated ISU's death grip on the long suffering figure skating world, is good for figure skating.
Of course, Japan might chicken-out, but I hope that they decide to send Mao, and take on the ISU, I'd love to see $peedy taken down a notch or two.

 

[Mathman]

Interesting scenario, Tripleflutz. It would be fun to see.

But I think the IOC would back the ISU. The IOC has made it pretty clear that the ISU is the sole artiber of Olympic eligibility in figure skating. Look how far the World Skating Federation got.

MM