Turin 2006 - The Best May Not be Allowed to Skate (non-spoiler)

[JOHIO2]

Wasn't Japan one of the feds that was grumbling and flirting with World Fed?

 

[Mathman]

Wasn't Japan one of the feds that was grumbling and flirting with World Fed?

Yes indeed. Along with Great Britain and Australia. The US at first issued a statement supporting "the principles" of the WSF, but later said, oh, no, we don't support the organization, just it's principles.

Katsuichiro Hisanaga, president of the Japanese Skating federation and ISU Vice President for Figure skating, headed up the committee that investigated Le Gougne and Gailhaguet after the Salt lake City pairs controversy. According to Sonia Bianchetti's book:

"After the scandal blew up, Hisanaga, as the vice president, had expressed the opinion that the ISU should take immediate action and alleged, as Stapleford, Lindgren, and the event referee, Ron Pfenning, had done, the involvement of the Russians in the exchange of favors between pair skating and ice dancing."

Needless to say, Hisanaga was ousted from the ISU council (replaced by David Dore of Canada, "thanks to careful maneuvering by the Russians," according to Bianchetti.)

In the end, all of the people who came forward to protest or to bear witness to the alleged collusion were punished by the ISU: Hisanaga, Ron Pfenning, Sally Stapelford, Brita Lingren, Walburga Grimm, Alain Miguel, Benoit LaVoie, Jon Jackson, Christine Blanc,...

 

[slutskayafan21]

Totmianina and Marinin are a lock for Olympic gold without Shen and Zhao competing? I honestly hope Shen and Zhao compete for this very reason. It's honestly no fun if you know who is going to win ahead of time. I honestly think Shen and Zhao deserve the OGM over Totmianina and Marinin, and I'm pretty sure that they will be the pair on top in Turin if they can go. Like I said above, I've never been a fan of Totmianina and Marinin or Petrova and Tikhonov, so I'm kind of rooting for any other pair besides the Russians in this Olympics. While I think that Shen and Zhao are a lock for the OGM, I still feel that a flawless Savchenko and Szowkoly could overtake a flawed Totmianina and Marinin and most certainly a flawed Petrova and Tikhonov as shown at Skate Canada. I'm glad you brought up the other two Chinese teams though as I had completely forgotten about them. This definitely changes things. I honestly have no idea if I would put money on Savchenko and Szowkoly beating either Chinese team, but the match up will be interesting to watch at the GPF(granted all teams qualify). I'll probably have formed an opinion by the time the GPF is over.

Oh believe me, when it comes to my personal opinions on the skating of Totmianina/Marinin vs their competitors, then I whole-heartedly agree with you.
However I am going by 3.5 years of indications how the judges see the competition amongst the leading teams. Totmianina/Marinin have lost only once total to anyone outside Shen/Zhou since the end of the 2002 Worlds, and thus the start of the new quadrennial, that was a loss to Zhang/Zhang at Cup of Russia in 2003/04 with an extreme disaester with multiple falls. In fact Totmianina/Marinin have a winning 3-2 head to head vs Shen/Zhou in that time, Totmianina/Marinin beat Shen/Zhou at the 2003 GP final, 2003-04 season Skate Canada, and 2004 Worlds; Shen/Zhou coming out ahead at the 2003 Worlds and 2004 GP final. Totmianina/Marinin win events by decisive margins over the other leading teams usually, and whenever Shen/Zhou make a mistake they lose to Totmianina/Marinin, their 2 wins in the 5 events they had to skate perfectly to come out ahead. So yes I do believe Totmiani/Marinin are a huge threat to Shen/Zhou for the Olympic Gold even if they show up at Turin healthy, and they are a virtual lock over anybody else unless something unforseen happens, or unless the changes slightly change their views on them. Like I said I agree with you when it comes to the skating of Totmianina/Marinin, their technical elements are very solid, except for their relatively weak(IMO)lifts, but not overly spectacular, their skating fundamentals and sound, but their performance lacks in on-ice chemistry, excitement, and passion for me. I have never been as big a fan of this team as the judges, but they were anointed the next ones from Russia when Berezhnaya/Sikhardlidze were winding their careers down, you can tell that by their 4th place in SLC with a sluggish performance.

I could definitely see Savchenko and Szowkoly have a chance of beating a slightly flawed Petrova/Tikhonov, but Petrova/Tikhonov are great competitors and will be very motivated to skate great and try to win a medal in certainly their final Olympics IMHO, however it is still not set in stone, they are more prone to mistakes than when they won their lone World title back in 2000 where they barely put a foot wrong all year. Totmiana/Marinin would have to perform in an extremely flawed manner for the judges to consider putting Savchenko and Szowkoly over them in all honestly.

I do think Savchenko and Szowkoly have a chance vs the other two Chinese teams, just pointing out they are serious potential threats as well. I prefer the polished and creative style of Savchenko/Szowkoly to either team personaly; and in fact I find them more exciting and with better lifts than the two Russian teams.

I can see your point now, although I'm not losing hope at their chances of a bronze medal, and MAYBE a silver(if Shen and Zhao don't go) if by some miracle they are able to compete in Turin. If not, then I will enjoy watching them in the future and will be looking forward to seeing them in 2010, along with other new pair teams on the scene, Marcy Hinzmann/Aaron Parchem and Anabelle Langlois/Cody Hay.

I agree they have a big future, and could be one of the real frontrunners for gold by 2010, they have a great future if they stay healthy and keep the motivation levels high. I also do think they have a medal shot in Turin if they somehow go but will have to perform near flawless to win one. They have atleast gained status since last years Worlds, I thought their Short Program in Moscow was one of the very best of the night, and was appaled the judges dumped them to a lowly 8th place, below teams like the sloppy Obertas/Slavnov and the solid but unexceptional Polish pair.

She did beat Cohen, didn't she....perhaps she does have a chance, but ONLY if Michelle and Sasha are both flawed. Judging by your screen name, you probably agree with me that Irina has this gold medal in the bag. The silver and bronze medal generally seem up in there air, although I have a hunch that regardless of Mao's performance(not that she could go), it would be Irina, Michelle, and Sasha on the podium in Turin. These three ladies seem to be the favorites and even though I've heard of Olympic surprises and upsets(think Sarah Hughes), I have no doubts that this will be the Olympic podium right now(of course we still have to see what happens in the GPF and US Nationals).

Well in her win over Cohen, Cohen skated close to what seems to be her realistic competitive peak at a major event. In the long program she had only one fall, and another small error; where in a big event has she skated any better than that? If she was someone known to skate cleanly in major competition I might agree with you, but she isnt, and in fact it seems to be a foreign concept to her. Asada is rock solid consistent, superior technicaly to either Cohen or Kwan, and gets quite good PCS scores for somebody so young. Unless Kwan really comes back on fire and much stronger than she ended last year, and Cohen actually does a perfect competition in a big event, I would see Asada having a great chance of knocking both of them off.

The next couple of months should be VERY interesting....

Agreed. :yes:

 

[tripleflutz]

Mathman,.....what I meant was that if the ISU says no to Mao, and it goes to court in Italy, and Japan wins against the ISU, it wont matter who the IOC wants to back. In that scenario there would be a court order either directing the ISU to allow Mao's entry, or directing the IOC to accept her without ISU approval. Either way the ISU would be diminished and $peedy would be at odds with JAPAN.
I know its long odds that any federation would have the guts to stand up to $peedy, but I think they would have a case.

 

[mzheng]

Yes. Mao did beat Arakawa and Cohen. But this is still early in the season.

Through my observation, one obviouse difference between youngsters and 'older' ones in Figure Skating is the youngsters are able to maintain the about the same level (or their peak level) when the season goes on. They are 'fresh' out in the scene, they are hungry and they are highly motivated to 'show off'. There may not be big up and down in their performance through out the season.

But for 'older' ones (or rather more experienced ones) they need pacing themselves physically and emotionally (being in sports long enough sometimes can lost hungry and motivation periodically. It's like trying to do the same job day after day for a while you lost the interest, then you wait for new project came in get your interest back again.). It's very important for them to 'peak' at right time and right competetion.....IMO, Arakawa and Cohen are both pacing(throught unimportant competetions) themselves to the majore competetion. The problem for MK though is she does not really has 'pacing competetions so far' due to her injury this season......So if Cohen and Arakawa go Olympics, I'd expect them do a much better competetion.

 

[chuckm]

I think the JAPAN Federation is waiting to see which skaters they want to put on their Ladies team, since they have about a half dozen ladies that might be included. They probably wont make their decision until a few weeks before the Olympics starting date. But, If they decide that they want Mao to go, I dont see how the ISU can block her, since the Olympics are an IOC event and there aren't any IOC rules that would prohibit her from competing.
I think its OK for the ISU to set age restrictions for their own events(Worlds), but to bar Mao from an IOC event is going too far. If JAPAN wants to send her, and the ISU doesn't give in, I think the JAPAN Federation may challange the ISU in court. But, however it turns out, it could cause a rift between $peedy and the JAPAN Federation, and if there is a court ruling against the ISU allowing JAPAN to send Mao in spite of ISU opposition, it could weaken the ISU's position as sole lords and masters of figure skating as regards the Olympics. And that would be a VERY GOOD THING!!! Anything that would weaken the $peedy dominated ISU's death grip on the long suffering figure skating world, is good for figure skating.
Of course, Japan might chicken-out, but I hope that they decide to send Mao, and take on the ISU, I'd love to see $peedy taken down a notch or two.

Sorry, but the IOC does not make rules for individual sports. The international governing council for each sport sets the rules and the IOC has to live by those rules. The JF would have to go to the Court of Appeals for Sport, but it's much too late to do that, and anyway the CAS would be likely to back the ISU since the age rules have been in existence for several years and are consistent with the rules other sports such as gymnastics, where the athletes tend to be a younger age group.

If the JF wanted the rules changed, they should have started a campaign at least a year ago, so that the rule change could have been passed by the ISU council by last spring to be in effect for the Olympic season. But reality says that most of the federations would not have been in favor of a rule change, as only Japan and maybe South Korea would benefit from such a change.

Mao seems to have accepted waiting until 2010 to skate in the Olympics. She's smarter than her federation.

 

[R.D.]

If the JF wanted the rules changed, they should have started a campaign at least a year ago, so that the rule change could have been passed by the ISU council by last spring to be in effect for the Olympic season. But reality says that most of the federations would not have been in favor of a rule change, as only Japan and maybe South Korea would benefit from such a change.

Mao seems to have accepted waiting until 2010 to skate in the Olympics. She's smarter than her federation.

No kidding. ITA. I think Mao said something to the effect of "I'm obviously disappointed I can't go to Turin, but I have to follow the rules." I think she's moved on. I'm sure she'd jump at any opportunity to go, but I think she can deal with it. Unlike some others

 

[Mathman]

Plus, I'm not exactly sure what the legal position of the Japanese Federation would be. They would have to say something like, we were in favor of age restrictions until our girl jumped up to the top this year. Or, age restrictions are fine in general, but there should be an exception for Mao because she is so, um, exceptional.

I doubt if the Italian courts would exercise jurisdiction. I can't imagine what laws of the nation of Italy would be involved.

Still, I hope they kick up some sand just for fun. That way, if Irina beats Michelle, Sasha, Shizuka, Carolina, etc., as expected, we can always say, "Oh yeah? What about Mao?"

MM

 

[SkateFan4Life]

And this is the way life goes. The "best" may not always have the opportunity to participate, for a variety of reasons. Injuries, illnesses, age, citizenship, you name it. It is simply conjecture to say that so-and-so would have won the gold/silver/bronze medal if he/she/they had been uninjured, healthy, old enough, and/or the citizen of X-country.

Do we know that Elvis Stokjo would have won the gold medal in Nagano instead of silver had he been uninjured?

Do we know tha Caryn Kadavy would have won a medal at Calgary if she had not come down with the flu and been forced to withdraw?

Do we know that Todd Eldredge would have won a medal at Albertville if he had not had a back injury?

And do we know for certain that Kurt Browning would have won the gold medal in Albertville if he, too, wasn't recovering from a back injury?

And while we're at it, do we know for certain that Brian Orser would have won at Sarajevo if the school figures had not been part of the competition? He won both short and long programs, but finished seventh in the figures. Scott Hamilton, who won the gold medal, had won the school figures but finished second in both short and long programs to Orser.

"If only" are two words that can drive you absolutely crazy, IMHO. :no:

 

[R.D.]

ITA. The "what-if" list could go on forever and ever.

MM- That's exactly why this is so weird- why didn't the fed make their case earlier instead of now when they realize that THEY can benefit from bending the rules? With all due respect to Mao Asada (she probably doesn't have much to do with this), this is really messed-up thinking by these guys. I hope that they get turned down.

 

[masa]

I hear JF is going to propose Mao's participation in Olympic if she is on the podium at GPF.

 

[R.D.]

If she goes, I think that's a given she'll be on the podium at GPF. Irina is her only real competition here.

 

[SkateFan4Life]

And, of course, do we know that Tai Babilonia and Randy Gardner would have become the first US pairs team to win Olympic gold had Randy not been injured at Lake Placid?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Why is it that fans always see their own favorite skater as the winner of the
GPFinal? How many of those same fans saw Hughes as the Oly winner?

It's really slippery out there, and there's Alissa Czisny.

Joe

 

[Doggygirl]

The really good thing about rules is that everyone has to follow them. The HUGE problem with exceptions it that they create a huge mess, more often than not.

For the past, present and future, I congratulate all OLY participants for their placements. And I will not second guess "woulda coulda shouda" had the rules been different, the withdrawls been different, the circumstances been different, etc. ALL Oly participants whether they come in first place or last place deserve respect, just for getting there.

DG

 

[Mathman]

I hear JF is going to propose Mao's participation in Olympic if she is on the podium at GPF.

Hi, Masa, welcome to the forum and thanks for posting!

About the Grand Prix Final, it will be interesting because it looks like it will be two newcomers, Mao and Alissa, amidst the veterans Irina, Eleana Sokolova, and maybe Elena Liashenko as well.

Mathman

 

[gezando]

Yes. Mao did beat Arakawa and Cohen. But this is still early in the season.

Through my observation, one obviouse difference between youngsters and 'older' ones in Figure Skating is the youngsters are able to maintain the about the same level (or their peak level) when the season goes on. They are 'fresh' out in the scene, they are hungry and they are highly motivated to 'show off'. There may not be big up and down in their performance through out the season.

But for 'older' ones (or rather more experienced ones) they need pacing themselves physically and emotionally (being in sports long enough sometimes can lost hungry and motivation periodically. It's like trying to do the same job day after day for a while you lost the interest, then you wait for new project came in get your interest back again.). It's very important for them to 'peak' at right time and right competetion.....IMO, Arakawa and Cohen are both pacing(throught unimportant competetions) themselves to the majore competetion.

Somewhat agree with the pacing idea, but Cohen should not be pacing like Arakawa, she is younger than Shizuka, and has not won anything HUGE like a world gold or olys medal yet.

 

[BronzeisGolden]

Somewhat agree with the pacing idea, but Cohen should not be pacing like Arakawa, she is younger than Shizuka, and has not won anything HUGE like a world gold or olys medal yet.

I agree with this for the most part, but Cohen has dealt with the "favorite" pressure for a bit longer than Shizuka. Hardly anyone expected Shizuka to challenge for titles and medals in 2002 and even 2003. Her World victory in 2004 came as a shock to many. She has not returned to that form since (although I am seeing glimpses of it.....and I certianly hope she will) Cohen has captured many international titles and been in the "favorite" role ever since 2002. Shizuka has only been experiencing this fully since March of 2004 (and, honestly, more so as a World Champion).......so, I would say they are about equal where that is concerned. They both are incredibly talented and capable of winning titles, but pacing/focus/motivation seem to be key factors for both of these ladies.

 

[Rgirl]

.....But for 'older' ones (or rather more experienced ones) they need pacing themselves physically and emotionally (being in sports long enough sometimes can lost hungry and motivation periodically. It's like trying to do the same job day after day for a while you lost the interest, then you wait for new project came in get your interest back again.). It's very important for them to 'peak' at right time and right competetion.....IMO, Arakawa and Cohen are both pacing(throught unimportant competetions) themselves to the majore competetion.

ITA with the first part of your post, which folks can see in post #37 (just trying to save space). I also totally agree that it is important for skaters to peak at the right time. In fact, peaking at the right time is, IMO and experience, one of the very most important things for a skater.

However, IMO, for the "older" or more experienced skaters, true, the "fire in the belly" for some goes down to more of a few hot coals, but I think that affects skaters who've won World gold, especially more than once, and who have been competing at the "podium" level for more than 7-8 years.

As for the others, who have not won World gold, have had a very up and down career, or who have been steadily climbing the ladder without winning World gold for 6-7 years, IMO, I don't think it's a loss of hunger, especially during an Olympic season, but rather being over-hungry. The physical, mental, and emotional stress of pushing themselves to skate their absolute best and beyond tends to cause at least an inability to relax, both on and off the ice, which can interfere with their technique; mess with their endocrine (hormonal) systems, which affects every function in the body; mess with the neurotransmitters in their brains (such as serotonin and norepinephrine). Neurotransmitters are needed for normal brain function and are involved in the control of mood and in other responses and functions, such as eating, sleep, pain, thinking, and motor control.

Of course everybody's different and no matter how long an "older" skater has been competing at the elite level, certainly some are going to lose their "hunger" for winning and the training it takes to get there. But in my experience, various levels of burn-out, from mild to severe, are far more common.

Also, some skaters just hit a slump. Irina had a slump in '98. Part of it was due to her growth spurt and the natural weight gain that went along with it. But I also remember Irina saying in interviews that she felt "not happy" skating and didn't know if she should continue skating. Since my memory for facts, such as dates, who won what when, and the like, I'll just say that it took Irina a few years to come out of it. I can't recall the year, but it's when she did the first 3Lutz/3loop combo that "Irina was back," as it were.

**************
Gezando & BronzeisGolden: I agree that pacing is of utmost importance and with Gez that Sasha and Shizza should pace themselves differently. But not because Sasha hasn't won anything "huge," but rather because every skater is different from each other and is also different within themselves from season to season. The pacing that works for one skater may or may not work for another skater, and the pacing that worked for a skater one season may not work for her/him another season.

Of course all of this, both the first and second part of the post is JMO and based on my experience training athletes, skaters, and dancers.

Rgirl

 

[gezando]

I agree with this for the most part, but Cohen has dealt with the "favorite" pressure for a bit longer than Shizuka. Hardly anyone expected Shizuka to challenge for titles and medals in 2002 and even 2003. Her World victory in 2004 came as a shock to many. She has not returned to that form since (although I am seeing glimpses of it.....and I certianly hope she will) Cohen has captured many international titles and been in the "favorite" role ever since 2002. Shizuka has only been experiencing this fully since March of 2004 (and, honestly, more so as a World Champion).......so, I would say they are about equal where that is concerned. They both are incredibly talented and capable of winning titles, but pacing/focus/motivation seem to be key factors for both of these ladies.

Arakawa is about 3 years older than Cohen, so in figure skating years in terms of cumulative pounding and punishment to her body that is so much >>>> than Cohen. I am not sure handling the pressure of the favorite is as important as the fact that older skaters' bodies can't handle as much punishment when it comes to pacing. But if we want to look at pressure, from what I heard, the Japanese federatio put enormous pressure on the skaters, and Arakawa being a world champion certainly IMO has the wt of the nation on her. OTOH, Cohen has been hyped (by the press and IMO self hype by her team) since 2000, and of course JMO those kind of media and self hype pressure is not as huge as a nation's expectation. Remember Ito apologized to the entire nation for an oly silver. I still think Cohen who has not won anything HUGE in terms of world gold, or oly medal is actually handling less pressure than Arakawa.

But even if as you say both Arakawa, and Cohen are handling about equal pressure, Arakawa still has taken cumulative more pounding to her body, therefore IMO Cohen should be taking pacing more similar to e.g Ando. Besides Shizuka has to train thousands of miles away from home, and has to communicate to a coaching staff in her second / third language. Unlike Cohen, who always has her mommie close by. IMO a huge amount of energy is being spent by Arakawa for just living and training so far away from home, in a different county, and sometimes have to follow TT yet to another country. I remember Jenny Kirk talking about living away from home MA takes a lot of energy time and adjustment, how to maintain her car, go through a 3 day black out w/o electricity etc.