U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread | Page 25 | Golden Skate

U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
The point I was trying to make about Euros vs. US nationals is that usually at Euros, none of the ladies land more than 3-4 triples in the LP. At US nationals, that isn't the case. Laura only started getting huge PCS once she started getting all those Euros medals and did so well at Worlds 3 years in a row. Because the competition is steeper at US nationals, when Alissa has an off night, she gets buried in the standings. I mean, if you watch Laura's FS from Euros this year, it wasn't very good, Alissa's FS from nationals probably had more content, and yet Laura was 2nd at Euros while Alissa was 10th at US nationals. The judges at Worlds aren't going to be giving out huge PCS to someone who was 10th at nationals and let that person win a bronze medal at Worlds. The USFS gives Alissa big scores when she skates well sure, but the ISU judges don't, or I mean, they will give her pretty good scores, but not good enough to medal at Worlds. Her PB for SP is under 65 and her PB for FS is under 110, add the 2 together and you get 170ish, which isn't going to make the cut. Now maybe if she started consistently skating well then her PCS might go up and she could win a medal at Worlds if she skated well, but that's a big if and it takes awhile to build that reputation. Evan Lysacek managed to do this, but it took him awhile.

I see your point. I didn't quite get what you were getting at first... And I agree - the field is deeper in the U.S. But that sort of reinforces my point that only Mao and Yuna (and maybe Miki when she doesn't fall apart) are out of reach for Alissa and the other U.S. ladies.
The point you are making about Alissa - you could make it about a lot of the U.S. ladies. Ashley probably would have won Europeans with her two performances at nationals. And then she would have gone to worlds and the reigning European champion and maybe received the benefit of the doubt on PCS. Instead, she is a two-time U.S. bronze medalist who had to sit out the last two world championships and therefore is unproven on the international stage.

But that is the price to pay for being from a country of deep talent. Historically, you could say that the sixth and seventh place U.S. finishers are way better than a lot of the ladies who get to go to worlds. The U.S. ladies in general are not as good as they once were. But since the European ladies in general are even worse, so the reality still applies....
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
The point I was trying to make about Euros vs. US nationals is that usually at Euros, none of the ladies land more than 3-4 triples in the LP. At US nationals, that isn't the case. Laura only started getting huge PCS once she started getting all those Euros medals and did so well at Worlds 3 years in a row. Because the competition is steeper at US nationals, when Alissa has an off night, she gets buried in the standings. I mean, if you watch Laura's FS from Euros this year, it wasn't very good, Alissa's FS from nationals probably had more content, and yet Laura was 2nd at Euros while Alissa was 10th at US nationals. The judges at Worlds aren't going to be giving out huge PCS to someone who was 10th at nationals and let that person win a bronze medal at Worlds. The USFS gives Alissa big scores when she skates well sure, but the ISU judges don't, or I mean, they will give her pretty good scores, but not good enough to medal at Worlds. Her PB for SP is under 65 and her PB for FS is under 110, add the 2 together and you get 170ish, which isn't going to make the cut. Now maybe if she started consistently skating well then her PCS might go up and she could win a medal at Worlds if she skated well, but that's a big if and it takes awhile to build that reputation. Evan Lysacek managed to do this, but it took him awhile.

I think there is a difference in Laura and Alissa right now. If Laura is popping a few jumps she is still skating fast and showing some attitude. With Alissa, she seems more cautious even before she misses a jump. Plus Laura's doubles are not as disruptive as Alissa's falls.

I hope Yuka can help Alissa get some confidence and attitude back. I think Alissa needs to be more positive and less cautious and maybe to attack her programs and show a little more speed. Make a mistake and ignore it, keep going, etc.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
I think there is a difference in Laura and Alissa right now. If Laura is popping a few jumps she is still skating fast and showing some attitude. With Alissa, she seems more cautious even before she misses a jump. Plus Laura's doubles are not as disruptive as Alissa's falls.

I hope Yuka can help Alissa get some confidence and attitude back. I think Alissa needs to be more positive and less cautious. Make a mistake and ignore it, keep going, etc.

Well, it's true. Laura exudes confidence and attitude even when she does mess up. She is one of those skaters that has "it." She commands your attention.
However, underneath her facial expressions, great posture and charisma ... isn't popping jumps and doubling them a sign of tentativeness? If you fall on a jump - at least you WENT for it. But I agree, basically, Alissa has been looking slower and more tentative. And this despite talk year after year of all she's doing to gain confidence....
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
Well, it's true. Laura exudes confidence and attitude even when she does mess up. She is one of those skaters that has "it." She commands your attention.
However, underneath her facial expressions, great posture and charisma ... isn't popping jumps and doubling them a sign of tentativeness? If you fall on a jump - at least you WENT for it. But I agree, basically, Alissa has been looking slower and more tentative. And this despite talk year after year of all she's doing to gain confidence....

Doesn't Laura atleast get points when she doubles a jump? Alissa gets hit with UR and still falls and is penalized more.

I like both skaters but it seems that Alissa was due for a coaching change just to see if she can get some mojo back.
I would like to see her faster and Yuka may be able to help her with that.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Well, we'll get to see at Skate Canada!!! Yey!!

Let's hope they both skate well and then we can see how they fare against each other. I would say Laura definitely goes in as the favorite in that event. It's almost hers to lose. However, Alissa hasn't had such a good chance at a gold at an event in a long time. Keep together Laura and Alissa!!
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
On a side note, I hope Rachael Flatt wears black for at least one of her programs this season. She looks great here:

http://www.figureskatersonline.com/rachaelflatt/programs.html

That pink costume she wore debuting her 2011 program is very nice but I think her best colors are yellow and black.

Yeah she definitely needs more flattering costumes. There are pictures of her from the potato contest, she has a really cute, petite figure but a lot of the costumes she wears don't show it off at all. I agree that black dress looks great on her though!
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Doesn't Laura atleast get points when she doubles a jump? Alissa gets hit with UR and still falls and is penalized more.

I like both skaters but it seems that Alissa was due for a coaching change just to see if she can get some mojo back.
I would like to see her faster and Yuka may be able to help her with that.

Yeah she does. And when Laura does hit her triples, they are usually of very good quality. Alissa's jumps when she hits them aren't bad, but they aren't particularly great either. Her tentativeness probably also has something to do with PCS, but I'm sure Laura's titles certainly help her cause and allow her to be taken more seriously.
 

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
Yeah she definitely needs more flattering costumes. There are pictures of her from the potato contest, she has a really cute, petite figure but a lot of the costumes she wears don't show it off at all. I agree that black dress looks great on her though!
indeed. something like that would be good for "slaughter" and i am thinking white for yellow for "summertime."
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Yeah she does. And when Laura does hit her triples, they are usually of very good quality. Alissa's jumps when she hits them aren't bad, but they aren't particularly great either. Her tentativeness probably also has something to do with PCS, but I'm sure Laura's titles certainly help her cause and allow her to be taken more seriously.

Laura has great presentation, though. I don't know how great her skating skills are - maybe someone else can tell me what they think - but her performance is wonderful. She makes skating look fun. I wouldn't say Alissa is a FUN skater but she does have an exquisite sort of quality that few can match. (although her Zorro SP did have a kind of flirtatious quality that I thought she pulled off pretty well.) And yeah, her jumps are not amazing ... even when she hits all of her jumps it is the rest of her skating that makes her stand out, not her jumps. I didn't realize Laura's jumps were anything special but if you say so...
 
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Nadine

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 3, 2003
Wow, what a fascinating thread, I'm gone for one day due to my older sister's birthday, and I come back to read some very interesting things. :)

I love reading about the future of the ladies, high hopes, and general overall positivity when it comes to them all! *thumbs up* Yep, I think the Americans will set the skating world on fire this season, which I look forward to with great relish. (8^)

But my longterm hope is that a Janet Lynn will come along, with all her humility, love of God, love of skating, and a joy that touches each & every one. To this day I admire how Janet conducted herself both on & off the ice, never seeking the limelight, truly a servant of God, to this very day. Now that is what I call a role model. And of course I would want her to have the jumps of Tonya Harding. :) ;)

GOOOOOOOOOOO MIRAI, RACHAEL, ASHLEY, ALISSA, CAROLINE, CHRISTINA, ET AL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

p.s. and I hope I'm not asking for much in wanting to see an exhibition of either one of these two pieces (which I'm listening to right now): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zE-JQzj2aEA&ob=av2n
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Duv66-jnfi8&feature=related
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
Laura has great presentation, though. I don't know how great her skating skills are - maybe someone else can tell me what they think - but her performance is wonderful. She makes skating look fun. I wouldn't say Alissa is a FUN skater but she does have an exquisite sort of quality that few can match. (although her Zorro SP did have a kind of flirtatious quality that I thought she pulled off pretty well.) And yeah, her jumps are not amazing ... even when she hits all of her jumps it is the rest of her skating that makes her stand out, not her jumps. I didn't realize Laura's jumps were anything special but if you say so...

Here is Laura's SP from Worlds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbzwdxZJ194

I think Tara's comments are pretty good. She finished 3rd in the SP despite a mistake on her 2A.

Here is Alissa's SP from Natls:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njHyRfzX1vI

Scott's comment, "heartbreaking" says it all for me.

I like both of these skaters so much and even when they are off I see exceptional qualities that draw me into their programs.

Hope they both have a great season and that Laura makes a full and speedy recovery.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Yeah, well she gave into her nerves there...

But- it was only heartbreaking if you were rooting for her. Otherwise, she had tough luck, simple as that. It happens to everyone eventually.

And that's one thing I don't like about Hamilton's commentary- you've GOT to remain neutral and impartial if you are going to call a sporting event. I had this same beef with the previous team as well. The European broadcasters are a little better about this...

He did the same thing at 2008 Nats with Meissner and Nagasu...in 2009 with Czisny...and in 2010 with Cohen and Rochette! (WE want it "so badly" for her?? how about YOU want it for her? Don't you try to project your feelings on the audience...oh well. rant over)
 
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janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
And that's one thing I don't like about Hamilton's commentary- you've GOT to remain neutral and impartial if you are going to call a sporting event. I had this same beef with the previous team as well. The European broadcasters are a little better about this...

I think you make a good point but Scott rarely bothers me. OK, maybe once in a while :cool:

In the case of Alissa - she is from his hometown - and I can see several reasons why he might be partial to her. When he says what a beautuful skater Alissa is I don't think he is being partial - just honest. :yes:
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Scott Hamilton is protective and supportive of all the skaters. He might say, "oh how heartbreaking, we really wanted her to do well," and then come right back with the next skater and say exactly the same thing -- we wanted her tp do well, too."

Scott's favorite skater is the one who is on the ice.
 
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