U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[Layfan]

Bekalc, I think that unfortunately you're right about the 2002 OGM. Why Michelle chose that moment to go coachless will remain one of the unexplainable mysteries of skating. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. But that's life, I guess. She has had many other compensations in her life, for sure. We can't feel bad for someone who has had perhaps the most glittering skating career of the past half century.

Do you really think so? I remember Scott Hamilton putting her FS into perspective in a recent interview. He called the fall on the flip so heart-breaking because it was such a quick mistake, she got right back up and the rest of her skate was pretty much fine.... Michelle finished first in the SP. She lost the gold medal during the FS because of a split second. Do you really think Frank Carroll could have prevented that? The ice is slippery... It's not like Michelle lost because she was out of shape or had terrible choreography. She fell. It happens. And she still might have won. What if Sarah had fallen on a jump? Then Michelle would have won the gold - like Kristi did in '92 despite a fall - and nobody would remember that she fell or that she went coachless or any of it.
I think the same thing about some of Sasha's skates... in '04 and '05 she had minor mistakes in her FS that cost her the gold but others skaters have won world and even Olympic gold medals with worse skates. And nobody thinks about it and nobody calls them head cases or inconsistent or unable to handle pressure. They only remember that they are champions.

I predict Alissa will surprise us with a strong comeback season and make the GPF and medal at Natls.

Yuka will be proclaimed not only as "coach of the year" but as a miracle worker.

If Alissa does get back to her best skating will it still be enough - or have the younger Ladies passed her by?

Earlier on this thread I made the point that Alissa might need more than just a clean skate to win or even medal. She might need to step up her difficulty. But I've since started to doubt myself on that point.

IF Alissa shows her best skating - if she still has it in her - who is capable of beating her (assuming they bring their best skating of course)? Mirai, for sure. Rachael, probably because she will have more difficulty, even though I personally think Alissa's overall skating is superior. Ashley... maybe. But is Ashley's content much more difficult than Alissa's? Not really, and Alissa surpasses her other aspects like spins. the rest of the girls, like Christina Gao, they might have more difficult jump combinations but I still find their skating to be rather immature and their spins and spirals, etc. not up to Alissa's level.

The big question is who will break through? Who will surprise up with much more difficult content than they had last year or with skating that has suddenly flourished and become more mature? If that happens, then not just Alissa, but Mirai, Rachael and Ashley will have to watch out.

 

[silverlake22]

She doesn't have a Lutz, she has a flutz.
The other girl did a 3Lz-3T, 3lo, 2A. Harder combo, more points. Much better presentation, though.
Polina A also did a 3Lz-3T, 3lo, 2A, but Ured on the toe, the loop, and trouble landing on the 2A. Also much better presentation.

Her flutz is getting better, it's almost a real lutz now, she didn't get an edge call on it at Thornhill. 3f is a great jump for Christina so that's why she does it as her combo. Adelina finished ahead of her because her spins and stretch are amazing and she had more flow out of her jumps, her TES was about 3 points higher than Christina but her PCS was barely higher. Polina had some issues with the jumps, but Gao's PCS were actually ahead of her!

 

[R.D.]

Anything can happen in the freeskate, guys.

According to another tweet, Alyssa Czisny is competing today as well. I forget where.

 

[FlattFan]

Her flutz is getting better, it's almost a real lutz now, she didn't get an edge call on it at Thornhill. 3f is a great jump for Christina so that's why she does it as her combo. Adelina finished ahead of her because her spins and stretch are amazing and she had more flow out of her jumps, her TES was about 3 points higher than Christina but her PCS was barely higher. Polina had some issues with the jumps, but Gao's PCS were actually ahead of her!

Which is ridiculous, both Russian's PCS should be way higher than Gao's. Polina program was filled with transitions, and her spins are like Caroline's. Her performance is also a lot better, too.

 

[b-man]

If only the younger ladies WOULD pass Alissa by! At this moment, we don't seem to have any young rockets in there, which is part of the problem. We have good workaday skaters, we have possible someday skaters, we have formerly promising skaters who are going through a rough patch, and we have Mirai, who's excellent compared to the other Americans but still a question mark in the world. In that crop, a woman like Alissa who has superior skills in at least a few areas remains a standout. I love to watch her when she's "on," but I agree that she's not going to be the one who redeems American skating unless you're right about Yuka as a miracle worker. (And wouldn't I love for that to happen!)

I really don't see Mirai as a question mark at the international level. The detractor's always say she hasn't won any international medals, but it is as much a function of the judging as of her performance. If you break down the Olympic scores, Nagasu beat Rochette in the combined SP and FS technical element scores. She also beat Asada in the technical scores for the long program. Where she lost major points were the PCS scores. She placed in a tie for 10th in the SP PCS scores. Can anyone seriously say she should have been placed tenth. That was a travesty. Her PCS was underscored based on few previous international competitions, not on what she did in Vancouver. No other Olympic sport allows scoring based on the past. Many believe she has already earned the Olympic bronze, and the technical marks which can be analyzed, and not pulled out of a hat like PCS scores, support this.

 

[silverlake22]

Which is ridiculous, both Russian's PCS should be way higher than Gao's. Polina program was filled with transitions, and her spins are like Caroline's. Her performance is also a lot better, too.

Polina's also 2 years younger than Christina, looks like she's 10 and skates slower and in a more junior-ish manner. Plus the difference in PCS was only about 2 points. Gao has Wilson as a choreographer and Orser as a coach, they clearly know CoP very well....

 

[oleada]

Polina isn't slow. At all.

 

[seniorita]

if you talk about Polina Agafanova she is not slow, she really skates with joy and is super flexible, she is the one I really got impresed last year at JW

 

[FlattFan]

Polina's also 2 years younger than Christina, looks like she's 10 and skates slower and in a more junior-ish manner. Plus the difference in PCS was only about 2 points. Gao has Wilson as a choreographer and Orser as a coach, they clearly know CoP very well....

If anything, I thought Polina skated like a young lady and Christina skated like a junior. Polina looks fast and she got the audience behind her. Her SS, IN, PE, TR, etc... should be at least .5 higher than Gao's.

 

[silverlake22]

Polina isn't slow. At all.

I didn't say she was slow, I said she was slower than Gao. Christina is pretty fast and her legs are also a lot longer than Polina's so it makes sense that she'd skate faster. And again, the difference wasn't large.

 

[Layfan]

If only the younger ladies WOULD pass Alissa by! At this moment, we don't seem to have any young rockets in there, which is part of the problem. We have good workaday skaters, we have possible someday skaters, we have formerly promising skaters who are going through a rough patch, and we have Mirai, who's excellent compared to the other Americans but still a question mark in the world. In that crop, a woman like Alissa who has superior skills in at least a few areas remains a standout. I love to watch her when she's "on," but I agree that she's not going to be the one who redeems American skating unless you're right about Yuka as a miracle worker. (And wouldn't I love for that to happen!)

Yes, indeed. We need one of the younger skaters to blossom and for Mirai to stay healthy and keep skating her best. That's the best hope I see for the U.S. to regain it leadership in skating.

Alissa isn't the future. Still, I can't help but wish her a good year. If Laura Lepisto can skate her way to a bronze medal, I believe Alissa could too, if she could just for once keep it together long enough.

 

[R.D.]

If Laura Lepisto can skate her way to a bronze medal, I believe Alissa could too, if she could just for once keep it together long enough.

Yes...if Lepisto can do it, there's hope for us after all.

 

[PolymerBob]

I really don't see Mirai as a question mark at the international level. The detractor's always say she hasn't won any international medals, but it is as much a function of the judging as of her performance.

I got curious about the other ladies as well, so I did a little checking. Here is a table of our current U.S. ladies with a count of their senior ISU A-level medals.

Alissa ............ 4
Caroline ..........4
Ashley ............3
Rachael ...........2
Mirai .............. 0
all others .........0 ........ Our ladies have some work to do.

 

[silverlake22]

Yes, indeed. We need one of the younger skaters to blossom and for Mirai to stay healthy and keep skating her best. That's the best hope I see for the U.S. to regain it leadership in skating.

Alissa isn't the future. Still, I can't help but wish her a good year. If Laura Lepisto can skate her way to a bronze medal, I believe Alissa could too, if she could just for once keep it together long enough.

Laura has the advantage of being a 3 time European medalist including European Champion in 09, 4 time Finnish medalist including 2 titles in 08 and 10, and has finished in the top 10 at Worlds 3 years in a row. Those credentials certainly help her PCS, and that's why she was able to win bronze at Worlds this year despite all her doubles - her PCS were really high.

Alissa doesn't have comparable credentials and also skates rather cautiously, and therefore her PCS are significantly lower than Lepisto's. If she lived in Europe, she likely would have medaled at Euros numerous times by now, but she lives in the US, and only has one bronze medal and one controversial title, mixed in with a bunch of middle-of-the-road finishes, to her name. She went to Worlds twice and failed to make the top 10 both times. She qualified for the GPF once 4 years ago and finished last. She keeps shooting herself in the foot by being so inconsistent and the result is that her PCS are not high enough to contend with the top. Also because she's known for having issues with her jumps, the judges always look at her jumps very carefully and the result is usually lots of URs. Alissa is a very lovely and talented skater, but she has created a headcase reputation for herself and so even when she does skate well, her scores are never that high. I mean, at SC last season, she and Joannie both skated clean, and Joannie scored 7 points higher than her. This same thing happens to Jeremy Abbott and started happening to Tomas Verner this year, when they are on, they are as good as the top men, but yet their PCS scores don't reflect that. When you are prone to making mistakes, the judges dock you for it.

 

[Layfan]

Yes...if Lepisto can do it, there's hope for us after all.

I just meant that I don't see Lepisto being considerably better than Alissa when they are both on. I like both of them as skater very much, though. I wasn't meant to be a disrepectful against Laura.:

 

[PolymerBob]

The problem with the analysis I did a few notes back is I forgot that darn World Team Trophy. It's always messing up my calculations. If we include it, Rachael and Caroline get one more each. So the new table is ......

Caroline ..........5
Alissa ............ 4
Ashley ............3
Rachael ...........3
Mirai .............. 0
all others .........0

 

[Layfan]

Laura has the advantage of being a 3 time European medalist including European Champion in 09, 4 time Finnish medalist including 2 titles in 08 and 10, and has finished in the top 10 at Worlds 3 years in a row. Those credentials certainly help her PCS, and that's why she was able to win bronze at Worlds this year despite all her doubles - her PCS were really high.

Alissa doesn't have comparable credentials and also skates rather cautiously, and therefore her PCS are significantly lower than Lepisto's. If she lived in Europe, she likely would have medaled at Euros numerous times by now, but she lives in the US, and only has one bronze medal and one controversial title, mixed in with a bunch of middle-of-the-road finishes, to her name. She went to Worlds twice and failed to make the top 10 both times. She qualified for the GPF once 4 years ago and finished last. She keeps shooting herself in the foot by being so inconsistent and the result is that her PCS are not high enough to contend with the top. Also because she's known for having issues with her jumps, the judges always look at her jumps very carefully and the result is usually lots of URs. Alissa is a very lovely and talented skater, but she has created a headcase reputation for herself and so even when she does skate well, her scores are never that high. I mean, at SC last season, she and Joannie both skated clean, and Joannie scored 7 points higher than her. This same thing happens to Jeremy Abbott and started happening to Tomas Verner this year, when they are on, they are as good as the top men, but yet their PCS scores don't reflect that. When you are prone to making mistakes, the judges dock you for it.

I think the only reason Alissa doesn't have multiple U.S. medals is because she keeps skating badly at nationals, not because the U.S. judges have anything against her or don't appreciate her skating like European judges. As we've seen, she's placed perfectly well at nationals, very well, in fact, when she skates clean. Actually, what I am talking about? The U.S. judge were even willing to crown her champion when she DIDN'T skate clean. I think she would do just as badly in Europe with her multi-fall performances. I see no reason to think the European judges would reward her any more than the U.S. judges do.
How many triples did Laura do in her FS to win that bronze. It was something like two or three. So I see no reason not to believe that Alissa couldn't beat Laura ever she ever manages to make it to world and skate a six-triple performance. The other U.S. ladies, too. The international judges do seem to like Laura but she is pretty inconsistent and is exactly the type of skater to leave open a door for someone like Mirai or Rachael could kick wide open.
The only skaters I think are out of reach for the U.S. ladies are Kim and Mao. Even for Alissa. It's improbable that she'll make it worlds and improbable that she would medal if she did but I won't stop rooting for her until the fat lady sings.

 

[Layfan]

The problem with the analysis I did a few notes back is I forgot that darn World Team Trophy. It's always messing up my calculations. If we include it, Rachael and Caroline get one more each. So the new table is ......

Caroline ..........5
Alissa ............ 4
Ashley ............3
Rachael ...........3
Mirai .............. 0
all others .........0

Go figure...

 

[PolymerBob]

Go figure...

Well, according to the consensus of opinion on two message boards, that's just about the reverse order of how we think our ladies rank.

 

[silverlake22]

I think the only reason Alissa doesn't have multiple U.S. medals is because she keeps skating badly at nationals, not because the U.S. judges have anything against her or don't appreciate her skating like European judges. As we've seen, she's placed perfectly well at nationals, very well, in fact, when she skates clean. Actually, what I am talking about? The U.S. judge were even willing to crown her champion when she DIDN'T skate clean. I think she would do just as badly in Europe with her multi-fall performances. I see no reason to think the European judges would reward her any more than the U.S. judges do.
How many triples did Laura do in her FS to win that bronze. It was something like two or three. So I see no reason not to believe that Alissa couldn't beat Laura ever she ever manages to make it to world and skate a six-triple performance. The other U.S. ladies, too. The international judges do seem to like Laura but she is pretty inconsistent and is exactly the type of skater to leave open a door for someone like Mirai or Rachael could kick wide open.
The only skaters I think are out of reach for the U.S. ladies are Kim and Mao. Even for Alissa. It's improbable that she'll make it worlds and improbable that she would medal if she did but I won't stop rooting for her until the fat lady sings.

The point I was trying to make about Euros vs. US nationals is that usually at Euros, none of the ladies land more than 3-4 triples in the LP. At US nationals, that isn't the case. Laura only started getting huge PCS once she started getting all those Euros medals and did so well at Worlds 3 years in a row. Because the competition is steeper at US nationals, when Alissa has an off night, she gets buried in the standings. I mean, if you watch Laura's FS from Euros this year, it wasn't very good, Alissa's FS from nationals probably had more content, and yet Laura was 2nd at Euros while Alissa was 10th at US nationals. The judges at Worlds aren't going to be giving out huge PCS to someone who was 10th at nationals and let that person win a bronze medal at Worlds. The USFS gives Alissa big scores when she skates well sure, but the ISU judges don't, or I mean, they will give her pretty good scores, but not good enough to medal at Worlds. Her PB for SP is under 65 and her PB for FS is under 110, add the 2 together and you get 170ish, which isn't going to make the cut. Now maybe if she started consistently skating well then her PCS might go up and she could win a medal at Worlds if she skated well, but that's a big if and it takes awhile to build that reputation. Evan Lysacek managed to do this, but it took him awhile.