US Team: 4CCs and Worlds (updated)

[el henry]

Since I'm appalled by the number of people who voted our reality tv president into office, I don't think I'm at all qualified to speak as to what is or is not mainstream. Nor do I think it's important.

I can tell you that as someone who performed and competed at a relatively high level in another discipline, I personally see way beyond the entertainment value of what these kids do, and I tend not to get bored with them, but rather, follow their continuing journeys with interest. My tastes don't change in people, you see. YMMV.



I find it interesting that you are so willing to give Mariah Bell the benefit of the doubt here based on her performance at Skate America, but as to Jason, you characterize Skate America as his only good skate this season. Same situation viewed through different lenses. Quite frankly, you seem to be predisposed to think negatively of Jason and unable to see that the fact he's managed to remain relevant in this sport despite not yet having landed a fully rotated quad is a testament to everything else he does really well - better, in fact, than most of the other top men. As to "bypassing" results at Nats, that's the selection process, much as you may dislike it. IMO, Vincent simply didn't make a good enough case for himself to be placed on the World Team.

Totally agreed.

It makes no sense to give Mariah the benefit of the doubt, and not Jason. It may be personal preference, which is fine, but that's what it is. Mariah has had all the opportunities that Jason has had, and Jason has made far more of his opportunities than Mariah has. No shame in that, just the facts. I don't follow the ladies as much, but her inconsistent results do not inspire confidence.

Particularly if it's medals, medals, medals for the US of A that's so important. (A goal I do not share as its own reward, but .... it seems to be popular)

 

[karne]

But Karne, weren't you complaining in another thread that the "big countries" take too many Olympic spots and don't leave enough for the small countries? If the USA doesn't get a third men's spot, then that spot will be available for someone else, maybe even Australia.

It's cute you think you've pulled a "gotcha" on me. Except you haven't. Maximising the US men to three spots is a whole different kettle of fish to the people who bawl every Olympics/Worlds that the big countries should be given ALL THE SPOTS and screw the little countries...

Actually, my standard view is that it should be like 4CC. Everyone gets three. If you can fill them, great. If you can't. Too bad.

Barring injury/illness, the Worlds teams should stay exactly the way they are.

Here's a fun one for you:

2014: Skater A, after underperforming all season, pulls out one decent skate at Nationals and finishes above Skater B. Skater B, however, has been rocking the season, and is named to the Olympic team. Cue endless wailing from Skater A fans about how evil and unfair the whole thing is, how Skater A is the ONLY PERSON ALLOWED TO BE UPSET, how cruel and evil it is that they STOLE SKATER A'S SPOT etc

2017: Skater A, after underperforming all season, screws up Nationals and is left off the teams. Skater B pulls out and allows Skater A to go to 4CC. Skater A pulls out one good performance, while Skater C and Skater D don't do quite so well. Skater C is inconsistent but National Champion, and Skater D has actually had a pretty reasonable season. Cue immediate hue and cry from Skater A fans for USFS to REMOVE A SKATER ALREADY NAMED TO THE TEAM and replace with Skater A.

tl;dr apparently it's only "cruel and evil" to "steal" a spot from Skater A, and not from anyone else. :sarcasm:

 

[TontoK]

I hope he does.

That's interesting you don't think the Shibutanis aren't the best in the world...when they just placed 2nd here, only beaten by Virtue and Moir and 3rd at GPF behind just Papadakis/Cizeron. Do you mean you don't think they could be like a world champion? Anyway, in any case, I find deep satisfaction in that I believed in the Shibs when others did not and they proved me right.

No, I even though I enjoy them, I don't think they're the best in the world. The best in the world currently are Virtue and Moir. I'm still in mourning over the retirement of Davis and White, too. That "golden age" of ice dance produced two legendary teams. So, although I certainly enjoy watching the Shibs again, I don't think they're "the best." I can't make my mind up about P/C. Sometimes I enjoy their programs in a neutral sort of way, and sometimes I am blown away. That's probably more a function of my mood at the moment.

Of course, I'd love to have the Shibs change my mind on this. I'm open to the possibility.

 

[bekalc]

I never said I was Bells biggest fan and I am not expecting a podium finish. But she is not super behind the rest of the field technically. Plus other than Ashley none of these other girls inspire my confidence so why not.

I don't think positive attitude and work ethic means you will have a quad. If it was the case lots of people would have it. Talent and ability play a role. There are female skaters who no matter how hard they work never be able to do a triple.

At this point in his career one underrotated quad is not much to be excited about nor is stuff in practice. It does not mean it won't come but it strikes me that Jason in general is not a powerful skater.

I have nothing against Jason. It would be great for him to prove me wrong. But I have been watching this sport for a long time and have learned in general

1. If a lady doesn't have all her triples at a certain age it's probably not happening.

2. If a guy doesn't have a consistent quad in competition by a certain age it's probably not happening.

I am not a skating expert at all but I have seen enough to know that jumps need to be learned young.

No matter what Browns team may say I highly doubt he just started working on the quad late. Just as I highly doubt he purposely tried to learn the triple axel late.

Rather I suspect he is a skater who struggled to learn jumps and if you struggle to learn the triple axel is it a surprise you might with the quad not everyone is capable of rotating like that.

Right now unfortunately for Jason we are in an area of incredible jumpers skaters.

 

[Mathman]

Personally, I wish that Jason would forget the quad thing. I would not want him to become yet another "almost" skater who lands a shaky quad a third of the time and the rest of the time falls on an attempt which destroys the rest of his program.

Instead I wish he would make sure to crush that triple Axel every time out. How big a base value could he accrue with 3A, 3A+2T, 3Lz, 3Lz+3T, 3F+1/2 loop+ 3Sal, etc. He would not beat someone who lands five quads, but I think that he would have have a legitimate shot at podium finishes if he was steel-bound consistent on his technical elements and reached 9.5s or so on components.

 

[Manitou]

Personally, I wish that Jason would forget the quad thing.

I have a hard time trying to find Jason's place in the competitive skating, and to be honest, I can't find any. If he takes away the technical side of his skating then all he is left with is going round and round in those "artistic" circles around the ice doing completely nothing. COMPLETELY NOTHING. If that's what he wants, fine, go for it Jason, but he makes me appreciate my fast forward button.
It's sad he manages to make the US team, but unfortunately that's the state of US men skating...

 

[bekalc]

Personally, I wish that Jason would forget the quad thing. I would not want him to become yet another "almost" skater who lands a shaky quad a third of the time and the rest of the time falls on an attempt which destroys the rest of his program.

Instead I wish he would make sure to crush that triple Axel every time out. How big a base value could he accrue with 3A, 3A+2T, 3Lz, 3Lz+3T, 3F+1/2 loop+ 3Sal, etc. He would not beat someone who lands five quads, but I think that he would have have a legitimate shot at podium finishes if he was steel-bound consistent on his technical elements and reached 9.5s or so on components.

I don't think Jason is going to get 9.5 in components without a quad. Why would the judges reward him with that when others like Hanyu/Fernandez/Chan/Ten/(when on) Shoma when are doing gorgeous skating with quads. The quad takes a lot of energy and I think the judges would consider it when rewarding things like overall performance.

And they frankly should just like they should if a lady comes with a nice performance quality but only doubles)

I mean think about it. Hanyu does an amazing transition into a quad loop. Jason does a transition into a 3 loop who should get the higher transition score?

This does. not mean Jason should not get good PCS. Laura Lepisto got good PCS. But Lepisto never got Kim or Asada PCS.

 

[Tavi...]

Personally, I wish that Jason would forget the quad thing. I would not want him to become yet another "almost" skater who lands a shaky quad a third of the time and the rest of the time falls on an attempt which destroys the rest of his program.

Instead I wish he would make sure to crush that triple Axel every time out. How big a base value could he accrue with 3A, 3A+2T, 3Lz, 3Lz+3T, 3F+1/2 loop+ 3Sal, etc. He would not beat someone who lands five quads, but I think that he would have have a legitimate shot at podium finishes if he was steel-bound consistent on his technical elements and reached 9.5s or so on components.

This season, unlike last, his 3A was excellent until he was injured. I think it was like 8/9 or something - he popped it once at SLC. We'll see what it's like when he recovers. I personally think Frank Carroll helped his jump technique s lot and will be happy if Jason continues to work with him periodically.

Anyway, I think I've done my Jason defending for the month now, so I'll just wish him the best tonight.

 

[Mathman]

I don't think Jason is going to get 9.5 in components without a quad. Why would the judges reward him with that when others like Hanyu/Fernandez/Chan/Ten/(when on) Shoma when are doing gorgeous skating with quads.

That's true. Maybe he would get only 9.25. The big quadsters will certainly beat him if they land all their quads and skate a beautiful program. But this is out of Jason's hand whether he does a feeble quad toe or not.

I mean think about it. Hanyu does an amazing transition into a quad loop.

Yes he does, You got me there.

 

[andromache]

Maybe Jason should put all his jumps in the second half to maximize the jumps he can do?

Anyway, lots of people seem to want to write Jason off because of his lack of quad, and I'm at the point where I don't think he has a chance at ever winning a World medal or even coming in 4th again. That said, having a good anchor guy who can put out solid skates, place in the top ten, and who judges respond to artistically is still an accomplishment and something to be proud of. I'm not going to write off every skater who isn't/won't ever be a world medal contender.

No-quad Adam placed 6th last year. Jason could do that. Vincent Zhou could use seasoning; judges would absolutely hose him in components, and deservedly so. Not only that, but from a reputation POV, it's a bad idea sending a skater who has only skated junior-level internationally and who hasn't even had a successful junior season. (If Vincent had won, or even attended, JGPF this year, it might be a different story.) Judges won't know what to do with him. Better for Vincent if he slays at Junior Worlds and comes to the senior GP next season ready to start skating like a senior.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Anyway, lots of people seem to want to write Jason off because of his lack of quad, and I'm at the point where I don't think he has a chance at ever winning a World medal or even coming in 4th again. That said, having a good anchor guy who can put out solid skates, place in the top ten, and who judges respond to artistically is still an accomplishment and something to be proud of. I'm not going to write off every skater who isn't/won't ever be a world medal contender.

What the US needs this year is for Jason to place somewhere between 7th and maybe 10th, depending on how Nathan does. He can achieve that placement if he skates reasonably well. There are other skaters with perhaps higher scoring ceilings, but all the other options have much lower floors as well. With Nathan competing, we don't need a guy who could finish between 5th and 20th; we just need someone that can place in the lower half of the top 10. Jason is that competitor.

 

[bekalc]

What the US needs this year is for Jason to place somewhere between 7th and maybe 10th, depending on how Nathan does. He can achieve that placement if he skates reasonably well. There are other skaters with perhaps higher scoring ceilings, but all the other options have much lower floors as well. With Nathan competing, we don't need a guy who could finish between 5th and 20th; we just need someone that can place in the lower half of the top 10. Jason is that competitor.

Except there's no guarantee that Jason will place 10th. None. His scores would have put him at fourth at Euros. And everyone in the final group here skates reasonably well he will be 7th. Sure others could screw up. But, he could be very well looking at an 11th place finish if everyone skates their best. And it's frankly an awful lot of pressure on Nathan to expect him to go 1 or 2 or even 3 at HIS first worlds. And what happens if Reynolds or Nam skates better? He could finish even lower.

So at that point why not take a chance on someone who jumps well, get them experience/exposure?

I would have waited and see how Zhou did too. And then made a choice but 79.36 in TES is really not that good.

With Jason's tech content, his fate is quite literally in other people's hands.

 

[FlattFan]

Nathan just won with PCS 88+. This is what I'm talking about. Yuzuru can't beat him too much on PcS but he can beat Yuzuru on TES. uSFS should put all their political weight behind Nathan to push his PcS higher. There is no reason skating like that will earn him lower PCS than Chan or Uno.

 

[FlattFan]

You're trying so hard to get a rise out of people FlattFan. Isn't anyone taking the bait?

Lol. Face reality. The day of Patrick landing a clean quad toe triple toe and win despite all other mistakes was over a few years ago. Now, he's at best playing for 4th place. It's a fact.

 

[demitasse]

After the 4CC ladies event this week, my guess is that the USFSA will start delaying the announcement of the world team. Mirai, Marai and Karen are all not models of consistency, but I do now think that Mirai on the World team would give the US the best chance of keeping three spots. I'm not optimistic at all that these ladies can hang on to three. With questions surrounding Satoko's injury and Kaetlyn's unfortunate showing here, I do think Ashley might have a better chance at repeating as a medalist at Worlds. My new prediction for ladies at in Helsinki:
1. Evgenia
2. Anna
3. Ashley
4. Satoko
5. Kaetlyn
6. Maria
7. Mai
8. Gabby
9. Laurine
10. Wakaba
Maria and Karen somewhere around 11-12. Le sigh...

I don't know... The reason why Mirai was even able to attend 4CC was because Ashley pulled out and Mirai was first alternate. Given Mirai, Mariah, and Karen's results this season up to and including Nationals, I'm not sure that Mirai had a stronger claim to be selected for any 3-person team over either of the other two (which is, as others have pointed out, reflective of the general inconsistency of the U.S. women skaters). The only way that 4CC could have officially been considered a "skate-off" between the 3 of them for spots on the Worlds team would be if Ashley had never been offered a spot -- and while she has pulled out of 4CC before and did so again this year, I don't think it would have been respectful to her (or any other person in her position) to assume that she wouldn't want to go and not even offer a spot in the first place. It would naturally also presume that Ashley would have to be announced as a member of the worlds team before 4CC, which I think then leads to other issues over how and when an athlete can be considered "a lock" for the team.

It's tough, I like Mirai and I'm happy that she won a medal, and I'm concerned that Karen's inconsistency at the international stage has shown itself again at 4CC (also, I just like Karen so ). But in the end, I think Mirai had a really good opportunity at Nationals to make it on the world's team but blew it.

 

[FlattFan]

This is why 4cc should have been a skate off. Criticize the Russian fed for other things all you want but they got it right in how they pick the team. If you can't perform closer to the big event, you are out. Look how successful that method is for US gymnastics.

 

[NanaPat]

It's cute you think you've pulled a "gotcha" on me. Except you haven't. Maximising the US men to three spots is a whole different kettle of fish to the people who bawl every Olympics/Worlds that the big countries should be given ALL THE SPOTS and screw the little countries...

Actually, my standard view is that it should be like 4CC. Everyone gets three. If you can fill them, great. If you can't. Too bad.

Actually, I wasn't trying to "gotcha" or one-up you. I was trying to make you think. It obviously didn't work.

 

[Tavi...]

Lol. Face reality. The day of Patrick landing a clean quad toe triple toe and win despite all other mistakes was over a few years ago. Now, he's at best playing for 4th place. It's a fact.

As I said, you're trying really hard to get a rise out of people. And Patrick? Personally I couldn't care less where he places, though I'm sure others do.

 

[princessalica]

So Karen just posted on ig that she had boot problems this week. Whatever the issue it needs fixed asap or her alternates need to be training hardcore! Bootproblems have been her nemesis as well as a huge issue with polina. If I were Gracie or mirai I could continue training because it seems when boot issues start they don't always resolve quickly.

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

So Karen just posted on ig that she had boot problems this week. Whatever the issue it needs fixed asap or her alternates need to be training hardcore! Bootproblems have been her nemesis as well as a huge issue with polina. If I were Gracie or mirai I could continue training because it seems when boot issues start they don't always resolve quickly.

I think Karen should have kept quiet about it. Not to say her issues weren't real as I'm sure they are, but it's just going to open a can of worms to the people she's communicating to (namely skating fans on the Internet). It would have been better for her to lay low and work on it quietly while practicing and trying to build up her confidence going into Helsinki. She doesn't need to address every criticism coming toward her way. Tammy should be teaching her that.