I find it interesting you believe Nationals is Kwan's to lose based on your historical belief that was always the case. As you pointed out this year the new scoring system is used at Nationals, and thus far Sasha has proved superior in the new system. Michelle might make the adjustments, might find the solutions, to better master the system, compared to last year; but then again an injury layoff wont help her in that regard. What if she still does not have programs or elements as suited to the system as Sasha though, wouldnt that change Kwan having the title so completely in her own power as you have expressed has been in past years? Just curious.
Great question. Things get a little more complicated here IMO, because different people will have different perspectives as to what might happen. But here's mine.
With the exception of 1997, and arguably 2005, Kwan has a history of always bringing her A-game to the U.S. Nationals competition. Whether she breezes past both the SP and the FS, or stumbles in the SP only to have a stellar FS, I've never seen her show up to Nationals unprepared. Now, granted, some Kwan fans who have watched her a whole lot longer than I have might think differently, but this is my impression. I am basing my prediction of Kwan winning mostly on history. 2006 gets a little complicated because of the two things I mentioned earlier: Kwan's record-breaking 10th title, and a new scoring system that suddenly seems to shift the advantage over to one of her competitors. The playing field may even out, so to speak. But here's where my opinion gets a little controversial...
Kwan has proven herself to be the best American lady time and time again. She rarely fails to dazzle the audience with her great, and often emotional, skating. Even last year, when she didn't quite do that, her performance was nevertheless good enough to win over a weak competitive field, including a Cohen that was recovering from yet another coaching change and cross-country move. I have not yet seen Cohen bring it on at Nationals. She has turned in a few respectable World performances, and pro-am performances, but never can quite get it together for the national championship. Last year, I predicted that Kwan would win by a landslide, and people were telling me that I was underestimating Cohen. No, I wasn't. I have a good idea of what she is capable of, and I didn't feel that given the circumstances she would turn in a good enough performance to unseat MK.
This year, both skaters are battling injuries, so this complicates things quite a bit. But I feel that the ball is still in Kwan's court for three main reasons:
1) She is the reigning champion, and therefore is in the driver's seat;
2) She is going for a record-tying 10th title. Since Nationals is a judged event, I FEEL (feel is the key word here) that if it comes down to a close race between Kwan and Cohen, Kwan will still get the edge, no matter what scoring system is used. It's possible that Cohen's superior spins and moves will garner her more points, but will the National judges judge like the international ones, which seem to love/favor Cohen?
3) She has the audience on her side. I really feel that the majority of the audience will be there to witness history, and they will WANT to see it happen. Bank on it.
For those three reasons, I feel that Kwan still wins out in the battle of weighing advantages of each of the competitors. However, if Cohen
clearly outskates Kwan, the judges will have no choice but to give the title to Cohen. But she's never been able to bring it to Nats. Maybe that competition freaks her out or something?
But- if she can skate a Worlds 04 SP, and follow that up with a Worlds 05 FS, she might actually have a chance. Nevertheless, Kwan NEEDS to show up prepared to be judged under this new scoring system. She cannot afford to be uncomfortable with it because others aren't, including her biggest competitor. I predict that someone will bring the fire, and someone else will crumble under the pressure. It can be anyone, not just limited to Kwan or Cohen.
