Really interesting thread! It's such a long time to the first competitions, so it is fun to speculate. My take?
Russians: Never count them out. I don't think they will challenge for a world medal next season, and I think the current #1 and #2 teams in the world are tops until they decide to retire. That being said, there are a whole bunch of young guns coming up from Junior that will make for interesting competitions over the next few years. I don't know how I/K will do over the long run. They are still very young, and need lots of refinement and improvement. It wasn't the season they hoped for this year. Maybe with a new coaching team they will have more success. We shall see. Sometimes these things just take time and work. There will be lots of teams pushing them. I've always liked B/S, and I think we have to not completely discount K/A. She is just lovely, and he is a quick study. In the old world of skating, such a partnership could never see big success. In the new world of CoP, over a few years, it is possible. He is not completely new to skating. He helped out with coaching dance with young teams at Canton. He also previously skated pairs and singles. On the world stage, I think Russia will absolutely secure 2 spots for 2013 Worlds, and very likely 3. I don't think we will see a Russian on the podium at world's next year. I do agree with others that Russia needs to re-think their strategies relative to CoP. This is a new world in ice dance. If they can master how to use the CoP effectively, while keeping the ability to create great program concepts and choreography, I think they could challenge for the podium quite easily, and maybe even top stop.
Americans: I don't think anyone will touch D/W at home. Yes, the Shibs had a fabulous season, but it will be difficult for them to repeat these acheivements. They have been a team for a very long time, and their basic skills are spectacular, but I think they will need to grow and mature in order to really find themselves in this position again. Had P/B not fallen, P/B would have been on the podium. Shibs winning 3rd is a fluke. And some felt that it should have been W/P of Canada instead, on the strength of their SD and then clean FD. I'm not really creep'd out by the brother/sister relationship. I think their coaches will do a great job making that work. But now we have Samuelson/Bates back this year, and there is Chock/Zuerlein. And more teams coming up the ranks. I think US ice dance is in great shape, and there is little danger of losing 3 spots to worlds for the foreseeable future. At world's, I think D/W will find themselves back in 2nd if V/M are healthy all season. As wonderful as D/W are, I think V/M have an extra edge in quality of crisp, clean edges, absolute unison when required, and very smooth skating.
Europeans: I'm glad to see F/S back in competition. I really hope they have a wonderful year, and their team-mates C/L as well. C/L have been around the senior circuit for a few years now, and have not shown a lot of improvement these last couple of years. I hope they find new coaches in North America - ones that will be able to help them address their specific weaknesses, and make the most out of CoP. I really like them. I have always just loved P/B and my heart is broken they did not achieve their world medal. I love their uniqueness. Their programs are always interesting and different from anyone else. I think they can win bronze at World's next year. As for the rest, Spain has a young, developing team, and perhaps there are more that will come up and surprise us. The beautiful thing about CoP, which was proven by the Shibs this year, is that results are not about waiting your turn and reputation. It plays some part, but not like it used to. Anyone who appears with excellent skating skills, great programs, wonderful presentation, and puts everything together when it counts, regardless of where they come from, can succeed in the sport.
APAC: I'm only adding this section because we haven't discussed Japan, China, Australia. Reeds seem to be consistently in more or less the same spot. Perhaps they will begin to make a move? Will Alison find a new partner? Will any of the other Pacific Rim teams find their way to training sites in North America or Russia or France, and make a real move in the standings? Anything is possible.
And the Canadians: Well, I obviously am a little biased about Canada. On the world stage, I think a healthy V/M will reign supreme until they retire. They are a once in a generation team, and I really am so excited to see them stick around for a few more years and continue to grow and develop and leave their legacy. It will be tough for W/P to challenge for top 5 at the worlds again, but if they have new-found confidence and energy, have not just a great SD but also a great FD next season, and continue to work really, really hard on their weaknesses and their strengths, I think they could even medal. I do think they are back on an upward trajectory, and I expect they will be solidly the #2 Canadian team. Between V/M and W/P, we will have 3 spots at worlds for the foreseeable future. I am less sure about C/P and P/I. As has been said above, IF they take a long hard look at their weaknesses and work on them, get expert help on packaging, and take lots of off-ice dance classes (especially modern dance), I think they have a shot at improving their position. I think they can be solidly #3 in Canada, and top 10 in the world. But they will need to really work at this. And they will maybe need to get some outside coaching help. I really like that C/P bring something different than the other 2 in Canada. I am really, really cheering for them to make the changes they need to make in order to see the success they desire. P/I are very new yet, and very young. They had injuries this year, and problems with consistency. They have the potential to be dynamite. But it is a little early to tell. They need a few years to develop, mature and find their own style. Being V/M lite will not help them. They need to be unique by themselves. I think it would be expected to make a lot of improvement when a team is new in the first few years. But will that growth continue now that they were Junior champions in Canada, 2nd in the world at Junior, and now the 4th team in Canada? I hope so. As for the 5th and 6th and 7th teams, I think these will continue to push each other. Maybe its just me, but I really don't think H/G are a good match physically. They make it work, and are charming, and have tons of personality, but I just wasn't that impressed with them. I felt they were a little over-marked, especially in the SD. R/H absolutely need new material and likely new coaches. They are the definition of stagnation, and need a complete overall - programs, presentation, the whole bit. And I believe A/T are still skating next season. They were only together 2 years, and made really great progress. Don't count them out either for top 5 in Canada. I think they suffer a little of the same mis-match situation as H/G, but it doesn't appear to be as bad a H/G. And then there are always teams that will appear at Senior, or that move up from Novice or Junior and surprise everyone. It should be a really interesting top 10 in Canada this year. My goodness! Such an embarrassment of riches!!!
This all about intertaining.
