What would have happened...Asada in 2006 Oly?

[antmanb]

Irina wasn't planning a 3-3 and didn't practice them much either at the Olympics, AFAIK.

I thought she was certainly planning at least the 3S/3Lp - didn't she do this at worlds?

From memory the UK commentators noted before both the triple lutz and the triple salchow that this could be a 3/3. And then noted that she must be "playing it safe" and hoping to just skate clean.

Ant

 

[KellyWil70]

Exactly. This is considered especially true in Gymnastics. The kids aren't thinking "omg this is my last Olympics, I need to perform." The younger gymnasts are considered to have the psychological advantage.

I am with you here. Mao had NO expectations and NO pressure. She definitely had more pressure at 2007 worlds as many Japanese skaters had retired or faltered that year. It was pressure that got to Sasha and Irina in Turino.

Just like the young Chinese team in Bejing. They had little to no int'l experience and won gold easily. Sometimes the mind decides the competition.

 

[janetfan]

I agree that Shizuka didn't try to skate for Gold, though. She knew Cohen made those mistakes and that she was guaranteed a medal if she just skated clean. Winning Japan's only medal of the games was enough of an honor for her.

.

I am not sure if I understand you. Are you saying Shiz was skating for the bronze or silver????

After seeing Sasha's mistakes, Shiz, imho, was absolutely 110% skating with the OGM in mind.

Maybe I miss your point, but I think the top skaters always skate for Gold.
Sometimes a skater's nerves, injuries or other factors make this difficult or harder for us to see - but I don't believe for a second Shiz did not see an opening and go for it.

Irina in SLC was the same thing. Right before her LP Irina was told, don't make mistakes, stay on your feet and the OGM is yours.

If Irina followed her coaches last minute instructions I don't see how this means she wasn't skating to win the OGM.

It could be argued just as effectively that if Irina had gone all-out and skated with reckless abandon that she wasn't skating for the OGM and only for the joy of skating. Hmmm....hard to believe that.

As a fan a more cautious strategy may disappoint you, and I can understand that. But to think a certain strategy , one you don't prefer, means a skater is not trying to win feels very untrue to me. Shiz most likely had the same dream most skaters have - which is someday to win the OGM.

 

[prettykeys]

Since japanese media would have put intense pressure on both arakawa and asada, i think Yuna would have ended winning the Gold

Ahh, I am sorry, I love YuNa to death, but she definitely hit her stride a little later and would not have been 1st or 2nd in 2006 Oly's...

She would have won the olympics and probably worlds as well. Kimmie would have never been world champ, the Japanese would have gone 1,2 at the olympics and maybe Shizuka would not have retired. Irina would not have medaled.

I agree...my guess is that it would have been 1) Mao 2) Shizuka, 3) Sasha or Irina (I guess Sasha b/c that's how it went down.)

 

[prettykeys]

You said that. Fumie did almost the same at Nationals as she did at the Olympics. I think that she was either held up at Nationals or pulled down at the Olympics (especially her PCS). Could be both. Yet, there is no way she outskated Mao at Nationals. Mao did miss her 2A at SP. Nonetheless, she landed two 3As at FS.

IMO, Suguri was undermarked at the Oly's.

 

[prettykeys]

Points, schmoints - CoP voodoo
I have seen both programs and if Mao skated at Torino the way she did at '07 Worlds that would not have beaten Shiz.
Mao had a fall in each program, and if it had been Olympic pressure of '06 as opposed to Worlds pressure of '07 it is not too hard to consider Mao would have been even worse.

ITA.
I just love it when skating experts here also become expert psychologists too.
Such a brilliant blending of skills has cleared up many mysteries for us,

I feel like I just took in a big gulp of Hypocrite, sprinkled with Factual Error.

 

[Tango_D_R]

I am with you here. Mao had NO expectations and NO pressure. She definitely had more pressure at 2007 worlds as many Japanese skaters had retired or faltered that year. It was pressure that got to Sasha and Irina in Turino.

My oh my.. you obviously don't know what it was like back then in Japan.
Not Arakawa nor Suguri not even Ando was their *IT* girl. The Japanese were *sooooo* bummed when they couldn't send little Mao to Torino because of age limitation. She wasn't just a promising talented young figure skater, she was the national's treasure(Like today's Kim in her country, and you'll get the picture.) and she still is. Remember back in 07 Tokyo Worlds, Miki Ando dramatically snatched that gold over Mao? A lot of Japanese fans were very very disappointed. Ando somehow even got blamed by her own people for taking away the glory of their nation's rising star.THAT is how much Mao meant to them even back then.

So had it been Mao who was sent to the Olympics, EVERY expectations and pressures would have fallen especially upon her shoulder.

 

[janetfan]

I feel like I just took in a big gulp of Hypocrite, sprinkled with Factual Error.

Repeatedly citing "factual errors" does not impress me or address the broader point of a discussion. In fact it avoids it imo.

Mao did make technical mistakes in both of her '07 Worlds programs. I already thanked BOP for pointing out that she did not fall.

Do you think I am embarrassed for not remembering if Mao fell, or merely made tecnical errors? From 2007?

BOP's comments were helpful and informative.
Yours feel much different.

Tell us how Sasha, Michelle, Irina and Sarah felt as they skated at SLC. More importantly, please tell us how you, a non-skater and a person who has never been to a major competiton know so much?

See, the sarcasm doesn't add a thing does it?

 

[prettykeys]

Repeatedly citing "factual errors" does not impress me or address the broader point of a discussion. In fact it avoids it imo.

Mao did make technical mistakes in both of her '07 Worlds programs. I already thanked BOP for pointing out that she did not fall.

Do you think I am embarrassed for not remembering if Mao fell, or merely made tecnical errors? From 2007?

BOP's comments were helpful and informative.
Yours feel much different.

Tell us how Sasha, Michelle, Irina and Sarah felt as they skated at SLC. More importantly, please tell us how you, a non-skater and a person who has never been to a major competiton know so much?

See, the sarcasm doesn't add a thing does it?

Why don't you tell me which "major competitions" I have not been to?

At least I directly address the comments/posts that tick me off, due to factual error --> faulty opinion and questionable motivation (in my eyes), instead of making sly, ambiguous references to participants in the youth-and-nerves debate while having engaged in it yourself.

Mao's errors in 2007 Worlds still garnered her a point total that exceeded Shizuka's best. So your argument about how she skated does NOT apply to the "overall discussion".

The end.

 

[prettykeys]

For that matter, in the YouTube and Wikipedia era, is it really too much to ask that people double-check their foggy memories?

It's one thing to not be aware of the goings-on in the world, but another thing to make statements that contradict what actually happened. Repeatedly.

 

[figurefan11]

More importantly, please tell us how you, a non-skater and a person who has never been to a major competiton know so much?

See, the sarcasm doesn't add a thing does it?

After checking your history of posts and threads, you enjoy these fights don't you? You go thread to thread finding a post to reply with your oh-so-witty sarcastic comments which are fulled with total craps. Do you actually do that because someone might will find you funny or witty? or are you just not used to the language and are missing the point of how to make the actual sarcastic humor work?

To see you say something like that highlighted sentence.. just great.
Have at least *some* conscience.
Don't bother squeezing your head finding your own *witty* response for this, cause whatever comes out it'll make you look very mentally challenged-as you referred to me.

 

[janetfan]

Why don't you tell me which "major competitions" I have not been to?

At least I directly address the comments/posts that tick me off, due to factual error --> faulty opinion and questionable motivation (in my eyes), instead of making sly, ambiguous references to the youth-and-nerves debate while having engaged in it yourself.

Mao's errors in 2007 Worlds still garnered her a point total that exceeded Shizuka's best. So your argument about how she skated does NOT apply to the "overall discussion".

The end.

Your ending is great (just kidding - note the smilie)

I did not feel the need to resort to calling another poster a "hypocrite."

This post from you offers a fair argument and even if you disagree with my comments when you address them this way - I consider YOUR OPINION much more carefully.:yes:

I enjoy your posts and think you raise many interesting questions.
Typically, I sprinkle sarcastic comments I make with smilies - which most here consider a sign that I am not taking myself so seriously.

I recall from another post of yours that you said you have never been to a major figure skating competition. Maybe another factual error on my part? If so, I apologize.

But my point was well taken about SLC. Nobody here knows how nervous the top four girls were entering their LP's.

No one knows how Mao would have skated in Torino had she been old enough. Her history of inconsistency can hardly be overlooked. Comparing marks/scores from different competitions is commonly accepted as an invalid argument at GS and in the skating world in general.

 

[wonderlen3000]

Mmm hard to tell. Dont forget that Arakawa has PCS advantage on both SP and LP. I didnot see Mao getting more than 28 PCS in SP and 60+ in the LP. The judges will still mark Mao down on her second mark, and that is about 5-6 points cushion on the PCS alone.
Granted Mao has 3+3 and 3A, but remember the 3A back before 2008-09 season is worth only 7.5. only 1.5 more than 3Lz and Arakawa did two 3Lz in the LP, where Mao did two F. Mao GPF layout is 3A, two Lz, two F and a Loop, only six triple jumps. She could have attempted two 3A like she did in Japanese National, but we donèt know if she will landed both cleanly.
Arakawa also have stronger spins and spirals points than Mao. One of the reason Arakawa placed 3rd in both her GP events is because she bomb her SP. She double the 3F in both events, and lost crusial points.

 

[wonderlen3000]

I thought she was certainly planning at least the 3S/3Lp - didn't she do this at worlds?

Ant

Yep. Irina did 3S+3Lo+2Lo combination at 2005 W. She also landed the 3S+3Lo in one of her GP event. I think that was Cup of Russia, and she landed 7 triples and probably the best performance during that year. She struggle in GPF and also in European championship.

Im not sure how fully rotataed her 3S+3Lo is, but even if itès slightly underrotated the tech caller might give it full credit.

 

[janetfan]

After checking your history of posts and threads, you enjoy these fights don't you?


Don't bother squeezing your head finding your own *witty* response for this, cause whatever comes out it'll make you look very mentally challenged-as you referred to me.

I can assure you that I will not be reading any of your previous posts. :yes:

So far, two posters have answered the question YOU raised about your mental condition in an unflattering manner. Another poster has decided to block you.
I will join him and be the second to block you this morning.

Good day and good luck.

 

[prettykeys]

I recall from another post of yours that you said you have never been to a major figure skating competition. Maybe another factual error on my part? If so, I apologize.

I am not a skater, so I have never been a competitor in figure skating.

I have also not been an audience member of any figure skating competitions (though I am unsure how that would make my comments on youth/nerves more qualified.)

I do, however, have a number of Track & Field, Baseball (not softball), and LOL Chess medals sitting in a box. And then of course is my greatest love for which I have no awards except being invited to a national tournament.

 

[antmanb]

I am not sure if I understand you. Are you saying Shiz was skating for the bronze or silver????

After seeing Sasha's mistakes, Shiz, imho, was absolutely 110% skating with the OGM in mind.

Maybe I miss your point, but I think the top skaters always skate for Gold.
Sometimes a skater's nerves, injuries or other factors make this difficult or harder for us to see - but I don't believe for a second Shiz did not see an opening and go for it.

Irina in SLC was the same thing. Right before her LP Irina was told, don't make mistakes, stay on your feet and the OGM is yours.

If Irina followed her coaches last minute instructions I don't see how this means she wasn't skating to win the OGM.

It could be argued just as effectively that if Irina had gone all-out and skated with reckless abandon that she wasn't skating for the OGM and only for the joy of skating. Hmmm....hard to believe that.

As a fan a more cautious strategy may disappoint you, and I can understand that. But to think a certain strategy , one you don't prefer, means a skater is not trying to win feels very untrue to me. Shiz most likely had the same dream most skaters have - which is someday to win the OGM.

I disagree that Shizuka was skating for the gold. If you are the last person to skate and you are told everyone has fallen or made mistakes so don't risk the highest risk element in your programme and stay on your feet, your tactic is to take away the gold medal.

If you do not skate last, there is at least one competitor left to skate who has hig risk elements planned, and you choose to not do yours you are skating for a medal other than gold, or hoping that mistakes are made by the later skater(s). That is not skating for the gold IMO.

Ant

 

[prettykeys]

Shizuka was skating for the Gold, but in a passive manner (not the most "active"). Yes, she did skate conservatively, but it was because she knew at least some other contender(s) for the Gold had already faltered, and she knew how much she was comfortable doing in order to make a good case for Gold.

This thread to me isn't so much to say that Shizuka's wasn't deserved or that she would have lost it definitely if Mao were allowed. It's clear that it's a hard call.

I just wish that Mao had been allowed to participate, so we could have seen what she was capable of.

That Tara Lipinski was both World and Olympic champion in the same year means that she was definitely no fluke. A formidable athlete and competitor as a 15 year old.

Mao should have been given that same chance.

 

[janetfan]

I disagree that Shizuka was skating for the gold. If you are the last person to skate and you are told everyone has fallen or made mistakes so don't risk the highest risk element in your programme and stay on your feet, your tactic is to take away the gold medal.

If you do not skate last, there is at least one competitor left to skate who has hig risk elements planned, and you choose to not do yours you are skating for a medal other than gold, or hoping that mistakes are made by the later skater(s). That is not skating for the gold IMO.

Ant

A good point and maybe a matter of semantics. But what about the point that I raised about strategy. Isn't a skater who chooses to be a bit more cautious doing so for one primary reason? I doubt if Shiz was "playing it safe" in order to assure winning a bronze medal.

Thinking of prettykeys - I did not check out if the skater in 4th place was close enough to come in 3rd or 2nd. If that was the case then the point that Shiz was only trying to get on the podium sounds more valid.

If the 4th and 5th place skaters were far behind I see this point as much less valid.

Maybe I will check since in a discussion like this certain facts do matter,

 

[bekalc]

Just like the young Chinese team in Bejing. They had little to no int'l experience and won gold easily. Sometimes the mind decides the competition.

That's not true. The Chinese had been sending age ineligibles to Worlds and Olympics for decades, and that was normally not a winning moment for them because like in Athens there tended to be meltdowns.

After Athens, the coaches decided to compete their athletes more, and see who could handle pressure the best. Four of their team members were at Worlds the previous year. Three one worlds-same amount of experience as Shawn Johnson. And before the Olympics, the Chinese sent all of their girls to World Cups, international events, and also did a lot of internal competitions. They were looking to see which youngsters could handle pressure and which youngsters could not handle pressure.

For example there was one girl Sui Lu who took Gold on floor and beam at Chinese nationals, and so everyone thought she'd be on the team. But then she went to a World Cup and the French Open and completely imploded. So she was off and Deng Linlin who was less spectacular but was shown to be pretty steady was on the team.

Sui though learned how to channel her nerves performed better in competition this year. So she got to go to Worlds, where she medaled on floor.

But the Chinese found that they absolutely had to see how their kids handled competition before they let them go to major competitions.