Which 2 Russian Ladies will make the Olympic Team?

[let`s talk]

I'm not really sure what you're saying here, so no, I don't know why.

I stopped reading your post here and I won't bother reading all the reast. The "why" means the RN will be at the New Year's Eve. That is when the Olympic team will be decided. Nobody knows what will happen there. As well as nobody could have known that some Gosviani, whose name wasn't much familiar to even Russian fans, would have won the spot for Euro. Wait till the girls hit the ice. All the rest is just speculations, predictions, whatever, that in fact is "feeding trolls" like CSG with his "based on recent competitions" and other invalid data. And then you say you advocate for not feeding trolls when in facts you do feed them!

 

[ForeverFish]

I stopped reading your post here and I won't bother reading all the reast. The "why" means the RN will be at the New Year's Eve. That is when the Olympic team will be decided. Nobody knows what will happen there. As well as nobody could have known that some Gosviani, whose name wasn't much familiar to even Russian fans, would have won the spot for Euro. Wait till the girls hit the ice. All the rest is just speculations, predictions, whatever, that in fact is "feeding trolls" like CSG with his "based on recent competitions" and other invalid data. And then you say you advocate for not feeding trolls when in facts you do feed them!

Again--these are MY predictions, MY speculations, and MY opinions, extrapolated from what I've seen in competitions this season from the Russian girls. This, as evidenced by the title, is a thread dedicated to such posts; if that offends you, then I suggest you take it up with the moderators, or speak privately with the OP, 96skiluvr. I, as it stands, cannot possibly "feed" someone who I don't consider a troll. If you do, then that's your prerogative.

Please show some respect. I won't bother asking you again.

 

[let`s talk]

I, as it stands, cannot possibly "feed" someone who I don't consider a troll.

Fair enough. You can always troll someone who you consider a troll. So can I.

 

[gmyers]

Sorry, but I disagree out of personal preference. Sotnikova's big jumps and sassy interpretation are much more suited to my palate than Lipnitskaia's wonky attempts at harder technical content and mechanical programs. Even Tukt, who has become notoriously inconsistent, is much more captivating and expressive--I often believe, correctly or incorrectly, that she is low-balled on PCS. That said, Lipnitskaia has a good chance at being named to the Olympic team if Tukt falters. There aren't many others standing in her way.

I was thinking that Julia isn't just mentally stronger than leonova but also Adelina and Liza.

 

[ForeverFish]

I was thinking that Julia isn't just mentally stronger than leonova but also Adelina and Liza.

Yeah, I'd drink to that. But, overall, I still find Adelina and Liza to be stronger skaters who really deliver when they're on. Julia delivers a good 70-80% of the time, but I'm never really moved or awed by her skating. She can pull out all of the big stops, but without an area where she's truly exceptional (Kim/Gold with jumps or Kostner/Asada in interpretation), she won't be able to surpass the older girls, or even Radionova, on a good day. In contrast, when Adelina skated this season, even to that headache-inducing FS piece, I could feel my foot tapping along. And Liza does a wonderful job with Latin-themed/sultry music, I think.

Aside from MK and Yuna, though, Julia has one of the toughest mental states I've ever seen. Give her a few more seasons and she'll definitely be a force to be reckoned with.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Gosh, CSG is into Ladies now.

Hah, if you knew me, you'd know I've never been into ladies. But nice try.

And I'm basing it off the results from Worlds and Junior Worlds, where Lipnitskaia, even with less PCS than the top girls, would have placed in the top 5. Assuming she improves next season, she can clear 190 which is generally a top 5 worthy score.

What's your deal with predictions? You say that Chan will fall in Sochi like at WTT/Worlds and the sport will suffer an apocalyptic death, but in this thread you criticize people for making predictions. Obviously we know that we won't know the results until the girls hit the ice. That's why they're called predictions. If you just want to knock people for making predictions in a predictions thread, add no value to the discussion, and just try to instigate other posters, then what's your purpose for even being here?

 

[ForeverFish]

Hah, if you knew me, you'd know I've never been into ladies. But nice try.

And I'm basing it off the results from Worlds and Junior Worlds, where Lipnitskaia, even with less PCS than the top girls, would have placed in the top 5. Assuming she improves next season, she can clear 190 which is generally a top 5 worthy score.

What's your deal with predictions? You say that Chan will fall in Sochi like at WTT/Worlds and the sport will suffer an apocalyptic death, but in this thread you criticize people for making predictions. Obviously we know that we won't know the results until the girls hit the ice. That's why they're called predictions. If you just want to knock people for making predictions in a predictions thread, add no value to the discussion, and just try to instigate other posters, then what's your purpose for even being here?

190? That sounds a bit high, IMO. That's where Asada and Kostner currently are internationally, and as good as Lipnitskaia is, I don't think she'll reach their level next season. Her skating needs to be more exceptional before that happens--high PCS or TES, or both. She'll have to fight to keep up with Tukt, Sotnikova, Osmond, and the two top Americans, all of whom got crucial pre-Olympic experience at Worlds. Lipnitskaia could realistically challenge Li and Radionova, but that's about it.

But ITA with everything else you've said here.

 

[let`s talk]

Hah, if you knew me, you'd know I've never been into ladies.

Brr.. What do you mean if I knew you, I'd know you've never been into ladies?

And I'm basing it off the results from Worlds and Junior Worlds, where Lipnitskaia,

It's stupid argument to compare scores from different competitons where the skater didn't hit the ice. It's invalid and therefore is not worthy to be seriously considered.

 

[gmyers]

Yeah, I'd drink to that. But, overall, I still find Adelina and Liza to be stronger skaters who really deliver when they're on. Julia delivers a good 70-80% of the time, but I'm never really moved or awed by her skating. She can pull out all of the big stops, but without an area where she's truly exceptional (Kim/Gold with jumps or Kostner/Asada in interpretation), she won't be able to surpass the older girls, or even Radionova, on a good day. In contrast, when Adelina skated this season, even to that headache-inducing FS piece, I could feel my foot tapping along. And Liza does a wonderful job with Latin-themed/sultry music, I think.

Aside from MK and Yuna, though, Julia has one of the toughest mental states I've ever seen. Give her a few more seasons and she'll definitely be a force to be reckoned with.

Well I was really accustomed to reading that if sotnikova's program got a persons feet moving it was in running out of the rink! Hope she can do something that gets judges to respect her skills. And she gets her triple toe back and fixes her flip. Similar things with Liza. Maybe you can give her a good latin program and then she stays planted in the center of the ice. These flaws caused their 9th and 10th finishes at worlds and are unfortunate. It's why I think they could be totally thrown overboard for Julia.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think Julia is a beautiful skater but to be honest I think her jumps are going to be gone next year. She gets so little height that when she fills in a bit she will not be able to finish the rotation unless she changes her technique considerably.

 

[vera01]

I was thinking that Julia isn't just mentally stronger than leonova but also Adelina and Liza.

Julia had a huge meltdown at Russia Jr.Nationals this year and was 20 points behind Elena Radionova. Of course, it was her first competition after her injury but I think it could be viewed as a preview of next season for her-she's not finished with puberty.

Adelina and Liza had better jumps than Julia as a junior, yet they couldn't land their 3Lz+3T or 3Lz+3Lo consistently and had to change it to 3T+3T when they faced the puberty. The situation might be even worse with Julia.

However, Julia can end up as being next Mirai Nagasu(and might end up with a lot of URs/downgrades appearing on protocols later..) in Sochi 2014. I think Julia would receive score around 190(considering it's being held in her home country) if she skates two programs. But there are other skaters who are capable of scoring 190+ with programs that aren't exactly clean(but almost clean) like Ashley, Gracie, Adelina, Kanako, and Akiko-I don't know if it'll be enough for her to place inside top 5.

 

[FSGMT]

Julia had a huge meltdown at Russia Jr.Nationals this year and was 20 points behind Elena Radionova. Of course, it was her first competition after her injury but I think it could be viewed as a preview of next season for her-she's not finished with puberty.

Well, she didn't have a "huge meltdown": she skated a clean SP that included a 3Lz+3T and made only one big mistake in the FS (the fall)+one UR and almost two-footed 3F. She finished off the podium and 20 points behind Radionova because all the other girls skated almost perfect programs and didn't make mistakes: Julia's performance was not disastrous at all, the result actually was (for her standards)... But I agree with the rest of your post.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

190? That sounds a bit high, IMO. That's where Asada and Kostner currently are internationally, and as good as Lipnitskaia is, I don't think she'll reach their level next season. Her skating needs to be more exceptional before that happens--high PCS or TES, or both. She'll have to fight to keep up with Tukt, Sotnikova, Osmond, and the two top Americans, all of whom got crucial pre-Olympic experience at Worlds. Lipnitskaia could realistically challenge Li and Radionova, but that's about it.

But ITA with everything else you've said here.

At Junior Worlds in 2012 her score was 187, and that was with "junior" level PCS. Assuming she repeats a performance like that, she can potentially clear 190. That score of 187 would have been good enough for silver at that year's Worlds, and been just shy of Ashley Wagner's 5th at this past Worlds. As she grows her consistency becomes questionable, but she's at least challenging herself with 3Z+3T, when really she just needs to continue doing 2A+3T+2T and 2A+3T to max out her technical scores. http://www.isuresults.com/results/wjc2012/wjc2012_JuniorLadies_FS_Scores.pdf As much as people want to say you can't consider competitions where skaters didn't compete against each other, there's no denying her technical scores -- at this year's Worlds, those scores would have had the 3rd best TES in the SP, and (with the ChSp1 added in) the 2nd best TES in the LP.

It's unfortunate though that she's kinda turned into Tuktamysheva, with excellent consistency and scoring potential, but then loses it halfway through the season following her uber-consistent season. I certainly don't think anyone can count her out, particularly for the Russian title. Also bear in mind that she made the Grand Prix final, and was the most successful Russian on the Grand Prix circuit last year.

 

[coolboogie22]

My wish team would be : (1 spot) Adelina Sotnikova and (2nd spot) Julia Lipniskaya

But, if Ksenia Makarova make huge improvement over the season, I wish that she take the 2nd spot cause her artistry is unique and more enjoyable than many of the others Russian ladies.

And, it's sad that Nikol Gosviani doesn't have any attention by the Russian federation, she is beautiful and look like a version of Alissa Czisny But because of her lack of international experience, she has low chance to be select for the olympic team

I would only be happy if Elizaveta Tuktamisheva take the 2nd spot only if she change her choregrapher (change those ugly shaking arm movement especially) and her ugly black dress, maybe it's her style but she could find better costume, actually she has a beautiful body and face, so if she present herself more feminine, I would be much interest by her skating. cause she is great!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I have soft spot for Ksenia and Alena, but their chances of making the Russian Olympic team are minimal at best. Then again, their PCS will be high, and should they put out a clean skate, they could knock one of Sot/Tuk/Lip off the podium. I think an Olympic berth is out of reach for Ksenia and Alena might have cooked her chances given her performance at the past Worlds. Who knows though... Sot/Tuk/Lip are having errors and aren't consistent - though not as inconsistent as Leo/Mak - so you never know.

 

[pangtongfan]

Putting Ksenia into the same category as Alena is simply laughable, and a huge insult to Alena. Alena as a former World medalist can be still given a fighting (albeit outside) shot at making the team (although some would say otherwise at this point). Ksenia has absolutely no shot whatsoever of making it, even if she skated cleanly and the event was a splatfest she would still miss it by 2 or 3 spots. At Nationals this year Ksenia had her best competition in years and still finished below Alena who bombed again, and Alena was then named to the World team over someone who finished over her to boot. The PCS projection is wrong too, at this point Ksenia will not get high PCS and lower than most or all the young skaters probably. Unlike Alena she has done nothing past that would make the Russian fed. even consider her in the mix with all the young skaters coming up.

 

[plushyfan]

Sotnikova and Tuk.

 

[plushyfan]

I would only be happy if Elizaveta Tuktamisheva take the 2nd spot only if she change her choregrapher (change those ugly shaking arm movement especially) and her ugly black dress, maybe it's her style but she could find better costume, actually she has a beautiful body and face, so if she present herself more feminine, I would be much interest by her skating. cause she is great!

Do you know who was her choreographer? And her arm movement are great.

 

[ForeverFish]

Do you know who was her choreographer? And her arm movement are great.

Wilson, right?

 

[AliCruise]

It's pretty obvious that Adelina and Liza are to compete in Sochi. And all these RN, EC and GP are just blah blah because 1)Adele is from CSKA, the "goooood" club and don't forget TAT's participation 2) Mishin will lobby Liza anyway and she has sponsors (samsung) 3) no one will go for Julia even if she skates better than A and L as Eteri is not that gooood as Vodoresova
And I don't take into consideration others - their chances are less than miserable. Everything has been settled for sure.