Which 2 Russian Ladies will make the Olympic Team?

[mskater93]

Mao has a sense of flow over the ice (that she's always had) and ease and effortlessness to her edgework, even when she was younger (Junior turning to Senior) which has always enabled her to score high PCS in SS. THIS is what Li needs to develop if she cannot develop power to match Osmond, Gold, and Sotnikova; Li doesn't have that sense of flow and ease to her skating, either.

 

[gmyers]

Adelina has the best expression of the current younger generation. Her jumps aren't that consistent anymore, probably due to nerves, but to say that she's only a top lady because of the Russian Fed's influence is a vast exaggeration.

It's an exaggeration to call someone 10th in a worlds lp a top lady. The attention she is getting now is almost solely because of what she did 2 years ago now. She had her chance at success at euros but blew it and didn't beat a skater who did two double salchows.

 

[pangtongfan]

Sotnikova has to be the most overhyped skater today. The funny thing about her Worlds result is she didnt even skate badly. She skated fairly well and still came only 9th. Osmond had a much worse competition than her with two horrible falls and other mistakes in a disaesterous long program and still beat her. Yet we still have one poster for instance arguing she could beat a clean Yu Na Kim in the SP if she does a 3-3 and that her technical skills are equal or superior to Kim overall if both skate cleanly, along with other nonsense. Europeans was actually the competition of her life thus far, and as above poster noted she still couldnt beat a skater who did two double salchows, who was several points back of her after the short to boot, and came from behind to pass her despite Adelina`s best LP in years whilst doing two double salchows. I am so sick of hearing about her, I hope she misses the Olympic team entirely so we can be free of the hype machine on home ice all while she proceeds to an 8th or 10th place finish, zzzzzz.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

It's an exaggeration to call someone 10th in a worlds lp a top lady. The attention she is getting now is almost solely because of what she did 2 years ago now. She had her chance at success at euros but blew it and didn't beat a skater who did two double salchows.

Well who would you consider a "top lady" besides the top 3? Two of last year's medalists finished outside the top 10. No one who finished ahead of Adelina (4-8) has won a world medal, and they all had at least one bad competition this season so they cannot be a top lady either I suppose. You can't judge a skater by one bad competition as a failure and call her season's best competition a fluke. All of the younger skaters have problems adjusting to the senior ranks, yet Adelina generally defeats most of the other Russian ladies when they face off. So she is one of the best of the group who will be around after Sochi.

 

[gmyers]

Well who would you consider a "top lady" besides the top 3? Two of last year's medalists finished outside the top 10. No one who finished ahead of Adelina (4-8) has won a world medal, and they all had at least one bad competition this season so they cannot be a top lady either I suppose. You can't judge a skater by one bad competition as a failure and call her season's best competition a fluke. All of the younger skaters have problems adjusting to the senior ranks, yet Adelina generally defeats most of the other Russian ladies when they face off. So she is one of the best of the group who will be around after Sochi.

I am not judging Adelina based just on worlds but on the GP season, nebelhorn, WTT, Russian nationals all the competitions where she really stunk over and over again. Euros was the exception but she still did a single flip. LOL that was her best and she lost to a double salchow skater. Suzuki did have a horrible worlds but had a great GP and japanes nationals and WTT and had good results several times and is a world medalists. But Sotnikova just has this mediocrity that is very very consistent with her best result at euros 2012 when she had a chance to win but blew it. She's not a top lady. Junior worlds 2011 has been really useful in keeping her hype machine alive. It's her best result. Who even wants to talk about her horrible 2011 grand prix results for someone so hyped. Tuktamisheva and LEonova were much better than her and she was actually worse in 2012. I was looking at her Russian nationals PCS and that is the only reason why should be in Sochi. She is not very good at all. Certainly not a top lady like people who did worse than her in London like Suzuki.

Sotnikova has to be the most overhyped skater today. The funny thing about her Worlds result is she didnt even skate badly. She skated fairly well and still came only 9th. Osmond had a much worse competition than her with two horrible falls and other mistakes in a disaesterous long program and still beat her. Yet we still have one poster for instance arguing she could beat a clean Yu Na Kim in the SP if she does a 3-3 and that her technical skills are equal or superior to Kim overall if both skate cleanly, along with other nonsense. Europeans was actually the competition of her life thus far, and as above poster noted she still couldnt beat a skater who did two double salchows, who was several points back of her after the short to boot, and came from behind to pass her despite Adelina`s best LP in years whilst doing two double salchows. I am so sick of hearing about her, I hope she misses the Olympic team entirely so we can be free of the hype machine on home ice all while she proceeds to an 8th or 10th place finish, zzzzzz.

Yeah RUssia is actively trying to promote that its ladies program has improved or has some great skaters and Sotnikova just makes that whole claim completely ridiculous. So does Tuktamisheva to an extent. They both flop spectacularly in London when Zijun Li comes in 4th in the FS and Gracie GOld does well and Osmond places 4th in the SP and then you have Liza in 14 and Sotnikova barely in the top 10 - I mean RUssia just needs to stop it with these girls already.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Sotnikova has to be the most overhyped skater today. The funny thing about her Worlds result is she didnt even skate badly. She skated fairly well and still came only 9th. Osmond had a much worse competition than her with two horrible falls and other mistakes in a disaesterous long program and still beat her. Yet we still have one poster for instance arguing she could beat a clean Yu Na Kim in the SP if she does a 3-3 and that her technical skills are equal or superior to Kim overall if both skate cleanly, along with other nonsense. Europeans was actually the competition of her life thus far, and as above poster noted she still couldnt beat a skater who did two double salchows, who was several points back of her after the short to boot, and came from behind to pass her despite Adelina`s best LP in years whilst doing two double salchows. I am so sick of hearing about her, I hope she misses the Olympic team entirely so we can be free of the hype machine on home ice all while she proceeds to an 8th or 10th place finish, zzzzzz.

Firstly, in the case of Osmond beating her, Osmond had a superb SP, which already gave a 5 point lead over Sotnikova. And in her FS, Sotnikova's URs were her downfall, otherwise she would have beaten Osmond. She was still the highest ranked Russian at Worlds - and top 10 at your first senior Worlds isn't bad.

As for losing to Kostner, Sotnikova was just 3 points ahead after the SP -- hardly "several points back of her". You make it sound like Kostner gave up a runaway. The judges love Kostner and her PCS scores are more than enough to make up for the major errors she inevitably has. At Worlds she got personal best PCS in two programs that each had a fall, which makes no sense. Euros was handed to her on a platter (her PCS scores were almost 8 points higher collectively than Sotnikova -- and that was after a fall in the SP and two doubles in her LP). Holding it against Adelina for losing to Kostner would be like saying Zijun Li is overhyped because her perfect FS couldn't even beat Kostner's popped jump and fall program at Worlds. If you want to show somebody's overhyped, you probably don't want to use losses to Kim and Kostner as examples, since up and coming skaters are pretty much guaranteed to lose to them no matter how poorly they skate.

If anyone is overhyped, it's Tuktamysheva. Yes, she had that stellar season on the Grand Prix and and excellent Russian Nationals 2013, but she's been pretty much a bust otherwise. Saying that she's shooting for gold is a long shot (at least when Max Aaron says he's going for gold he puts in 5 quads... I don't see Tuktamysheva adding her 3A or something that might actually make us believe she has a shot to win). Although, you can't hold it against her for striving to win an OGM. That being said, I don't at all think Sotnikova deserves the hype she gets either... she's another one who started promising but then her body betrayed her and she's fighting to keep her consistency. If we're being realistic, none of the Russian girls (unless Leonova magically gets her consistency back) have a shot to win (which is fair since it will likely be Kim), but even to medal is a distant hope. When the PCS of Kostner/Asada/Kim is around 10-12 points higher in the FS and 4-5 points higher in the SP, that's already a 15-point disadvantage that they're trying to make up... the only way they can medal (or any of the chasers for that matter) is if Kim/Kostner/Asada bomb, but even then their PCS advantage could still put them ahead.

I think regardless of whether it's Tuktamysheva/Sotnikova/Lipnitskaia on the Olympic team, there's going to be no Russian woman in the top 5, so the hype is pretty much unmerited no matter who you're looking at. Russia's medals will be coming from a likely gold in pairs and (assuming B/S don't make errors) a bronze in ice dance.

 

[ForeverFish]

It's an exaggeration to call someone 10th in a worlds lp a top lady. The attention she is getting now is almost solely because of what she did 2 years ago now. She had her chance at success at euros but blew it and didn't beat a skater who did two double salchows.

The top 10 at Worlds are "top ladies," IMO. Limiting the term to the top three or four based on this season's performances implies that there will be NO leading ladies after Kim, Kostner, and Asada retire.

I said nothing about the hype, which is, by definition, always exaggerated. I stand by what I said--of the younger girls, Sotnikova has the best expression. She is closely tailed by Osmond, who has had just as much of an up-and-down season.

What, was the silver medal at Euros not good enough? Did you expect her to beat the reigning World Champion, who's been on the international scene for a decade? Less than a point separated Kostner and Sotnikova at the end of the day. Again, you don't seem to have much of an appreciation for the current Russians, which is fine. But don't deprecate their achievements.

 

[gmyers]

The top 10 at Worlds are "top ladies," IMO. Limiting the definition to the top three or four implies that there will be NO leading ladies after Kim, Kostner, and Asada retire.

What, was the silver medal at Euros not good enough? Did you expect her to beat the reigning World Champion, who's been on the international scene for a decade? Less than a point separated Kostner and Sotnikova at the end of the day. Again, you don't seem to have much of an appreciation for the current Russians, which is fine. But don't deprecate their achievements.

Ok so my top lady definition may be too exclusive. Tuktamsheva's and sotnikova's have accomplishments but their accomplishments are not so great as to make them invulnerable to challenge by other Russian girls for Sochi spots. they were 9th and 10th at the worlds but is that really worth anything when they skated the way they did? They were not in the mix for any kind of medal at the worlds and fell behind girls their own age at the worlds. At euros When the world champion does two double salchows in a program I would expect them to lose but she didnt because of the weaknesses of sotnikova's flips and tuktamisheva's pcs. Their worlds performances were very bad in different ways and may not survive a Russian nationals.

I have more appreciation for the current Russians because I am saying more than sotnikova and tuktamisheva can be on the team and the team could be pogorilaya and lipnitskaia because the 2013 worlds team was a gigantic failure and the top 10 was barely reached by them.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It's an exaggeration to call someone 10th in a worlds lp a top lady. The attention she is getting now is almost solely because of what she did 2 years ago now. She had her chance at success at euros but blew it and didn't beat a skater who did two double salchows.

Again, to lose to Kostner is to be expected for a skater relatively out of the junior ranks given the PCS she gets. It's like saying Murakami isn't a top lady because she lost at the WC to a skater who fell in her SP and fell and popped a triple in her LP... without mentioning that small detail that we'd be talking about Kostner. I'd say a silver at Euros against Kostner is good success for her, especially considering Kostner was slated to win Euros anyways. It's not like Sotnikova had a huge lead after her SP and in her FS she made significant enough errors (particularly with the flip that got her almost no points) and it cost her. At Worlds she did poorer than Europeans but it's not like hers or Tuktamysheva's personal bests would have medalled against even a faulty Kostner and Asada. Assuming Kostner and Asada will be sharper come the Olympics, there is very little chance for Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva to make a splash. That being said, they're still "top skaters" -- being medalists on the Grand Prix, in my opinion, usually constitutes "top skater".

And Worlds is just one competition. I'm sure people still consider Amodio, Takahashi and Suzuki as top skaters, in spite of a poor Worlds.

 

[ForeverFish]

Ok so my top lady definition may be too exclusive. Tuktamsheva's and sotnikova's have accomplishments but their accomplishments are not so great as to make them invulnerable to challenge by other Russian girls for Sochi spots. they were 9th and 10th at the worlds but is that really worth anything when they skated the way they did? They were not in the mix for any kind of medal at the worlds and fell behind girls their own age at the worlds. At euros When the world champion does two double salchows in a program I would expect them to lose but she didnt because of the weaknesses of sotnikova's flips and tuktamisheva's pcs. Their worlds performances were very bad in different ways and may not survive a Russian nationals.

I have more appreciation for the current Russians because I am saying more than sotnikova and tuktamisheva can be on the team and the team could be pogorilaya and lipnitskaia because they 2013 worlds team was a gigantic failure and the top 10 was barely reached by them.

No one is saying that they're invulnerable to defeat at Russian Nationals. Whether or not they earn the spots is dependent on how they skate. I personally feel that Sotnikova has a good chance; Tuktamysheva, slightly less so.

You've said this all before, on several other threads. Top 10 in the world is generally considered a big accomplishment, especially with the strength of this year's field. You're making it sound like they got into the top ten by the skin of their teeth, when, in actuality, the two Russians were WELL in the top ten (by over 9 points).

Their performances weren't nearly as apocalyptic as you describe. Tukt had a freak fall in the SP that rattled her and caused her to pop the 2A. She was actually clean in the FS, landing six triples. Sotnikova had a UR'd jump in the SP that was the result of a season-long problem, and had trouble with her spins like several other ladies. Her FS was weaker, and again plagued by many of the same issues that she's had all season, but was still 9th of the night, which--considering how Kim, Asada, Kostner, Gold, Wagner, Murakami, and Li skated--wasn't exactly an embarrassment.

A "gigantic failure" would be Czisny at 2012 Worlds. Not two upstarts who placed in the top 10 at their first Worlds.

 

[pangtongfan]

Hopefully 2 of Pogorilaya, Lipnitskaia, or Korobeynikova will make up the Olympic team. I fully expect atleast 1 of those 3 will make it though, which would leave just 1 of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva making it. I will be quite surprised if Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva is the Olympic Team next year.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Hopefully 2 of Pogorilaya, Lipnitskaia, or Korobeynikova will make up the Olympic team. I fully expect atleast 1 of those 3 will make it though, which would leave just 1 of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva making it. I will be quite surprised if Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva is the Olympic Team next year.

I agree that Lipnitskaia has a definite chance to oust Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva. But Pogorilaya and Korobeynikova?!

Pogorilaya was good at Junior Worlds, and a solid 5th at Russian Nats, but her personal best (167.40) is still 7-9 points lower than Sotnikova/Tuktamysheva's performances at Worlds (and about 25 and 21 points below Sotnikova and Tuk's PBs, respectively).

I have no idea why you've pegged Korobeynikova (10th, 7th, 10th at the last 3 Russian Nationals, and 6th and 7th in her GP events in 2012-2013 season) to beat one of them. As it stands, even Leonova has a better shot to upset Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva than Korobeynikova.

Frankly, it would be a disaster if both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva didn't make the Olympic team considering they both overwhelmingly have the best scoring potential, and they've been doing okay (I mean, they've still earned GP medals and were 2nd and 3rd at Euros, which is notable).

 

[gmyers]

Again, to lose to Kostner is to be expected for a skater relatively out of the junior ranks given the PCS she gets. It's like saying Murakami isn't a top lady because she lost at the WC to a skater who fell in her SP and fell and popped a triple in her LP... without mentioning that small detail that we'd be talking about Kostner. I'd say a silver at Euros against Kostner is good success for her, especially considering Kostner was slated to win Euros anyways. It's not like Sotnikova had a huge lead after her SP and in her FS she made significant enough errors (particularly with the flip that got her almost no points) and it cost her. At Worlds she did poorer than Europeans but it's not like hers or Tuktamysheva's personal bests would have medalled against even a faulty Kostner and Asada. Assuming Kostner and Asada will be sharper come the Olympics, there is very little chance for Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva to make a splash. That being said, they're still "top skaters" -- being medalists on the Grand Prix, in my opinion, usually constitutes "top skater".

And Worlds is just one competition. I'm sure people still consider Amodio, Takahashi and Suzuki as top skaters, in spite of a poor Worlds.

At euros you're talking about a kostner that did two double salchows. She also didn't have the 3/3 she did at worls. falling on the triple salchow and triple in the SP were much better things to do and do not compare to the double salchow errors she had in euros. Always better to fall than double or single - always. It was also not one competition for Sotnikova. She made mistakes all season long and didn't even medal at a GP she was in and did not make the GPF - Tuktamisheva and Lipnitskaia did.

No one is saying that they're invulnerable to defeat at Russian Nationals. Whether or not they earn the spots is dependent on how they skate. I personally feel that Sotnikova has a good chance; Tuktamysheva, slightly less so.

You've said this all before, on several other threads. Top 10 in the world is generally considered a big accomplishment, especially with the strength of this year's field. You're making it sound like they got into the top ten by the skin of their teeth, when, in actuality, the two Russians were WELL in the top ten (by over 9 points).

Their performances weren't nearly as apocalyptic as you describe. Tukt had a freak fall in the SP that rattled her and caused her to pop the 2A. She was actually clean in the FS, landing six triples. Sotnikova had a UR'd jump in the SP that was the result of a season-long problem, and had trouble with her spins like several other ladies. Her FS was weaker, and again plagued by many of the same issues that she's had all season, but was still 9th of the night, which--considering how Kim, Asada, Kostner, Gold, Wagner, Murakami, and Li skated--wasn't exactly an embarrassment.

A "gigantic failure" would be Czisny at 2012 Worlds. Not two upstarts who placed in the top 10 at their first Worlds.

Czisny was injured and that was an injury disaster. Both Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva were just nerves disasters. Li was clean too and was 4th in the FS and Liza was 8th! So It was a very bad sign. It shows their skill level against the international skaters but that is totally irrelevant to Russian nationals. Liza can not fall on a spin and pop a single axel at Russian nationals and even come close to making the team. Adelina can't be singling her flips or falling on a flip and leave out 2 jumps and be expected to make the team that clearly either. They have problems that carry over to almost every competition they are in.

I agree that Lipnitskaia has a definite chance to oust Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva. But Pogorilaya and Korobeynikova?!

Pogorilaya was good at Junior Worlds, and a solid 5th at Russian Nats, but her personal best (167.40) is still 7-9 points lower than Sotnikova/Tuktamysheva's performances at Worlds (and about 25 and 21 points below Sotnikova and Tuk's PBs, respectively).

I have no idea why you've pegged Korobeynikova (10th, 7th, 10th at the last 3 Russian Nationals, and 6th and 7th in her GP events in 2012-2013 season) to beat one of them. As it stands, even Leonova has a better shot to upset Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva than Korobeynikova.

Frankly, it would be a disaster if both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva didn't make the Olympic team considering they both overwhelmingly have the best scoring potential, and they've been doing okay (I mean, they've still earned GP medals and were 2nd and 3rd at Euros, which is notable).

I don't think they have the best scoring potential at all. Other girls have better jumps and their PCS scores from judge reputation aren't that high so judges don't even care who they are. So if judges don't even care who they to give them good PCS and other girls can jump better how would not sending them be a disaster. Liza especially on PCS but with Adelina's jumps even if her PCS is higher than lizas it is all wiped out by all of her horrible jump problems on triple toe, lutz, flip, double axel etc.

 

[Moment]

Two double Salchows are smaller errors than a fall on a downgraded 3S and a single loop. At Worlds she landed a 3F+3T, but at Euros Carolina had overall better performances.

 

[Moment]

What Russian girl has better jumps than Tuktamysheva?

 

[gmyers]

What Russian girl has better jumps than Tuktamysheva?

When Liza does a jump few do them better but the problem has been the holes she digs herself in short programs based on jump mistakes. So if there's another Russian with weaker technique but better short programs she could be knocked right off the team! The major thing with Liza is that her programs and skating just make judges shrug so the pcs is weak.

 

[ForeverFish]

What Russian girl has better jumps than Tuktamysheva?

Sotnikova, when she's clean.

 

[gmyers]

It has been so long since Adelina can be described as having been clean with no flutz, ur triple toes, single flips or flip falls. The urs and flutz are not falls and may not count against being clean in a skate but it has been so long. These are the things that lipnitskaia and pogorilaya and even possibly leonova or maybe even gosviani could take advantage of. The Adelina has such terrible flaws on so many jumps. That I think really prevent her from ever being clean. Sometimes she can do a triple flip really well and she has a great flip.

 

[Moment]

Sotnikova, when she's clean.

How? Her toe jumps are terrible.

 

[vera01]

It has been so long since Adelina can be described as having been clean with no flutz, ur triple toes, single flips or flip falls. The urs and flutz are not falls and may not count against being clean in a skate but it has been so long. These are the things that lipnitskaia and pogorilaya and even possibly leonova or maybe even gosviani could take advantage of. The Adelina has such terrible flaws on so many jumps. That I think really prevent her from ever being clean. Sometimes she can do a triple flip really well and she has a great flip.

Yes, but Julia has a lip problem and both Julia/Anna aren't good as Adelina when it comes to PCS.