Well, for sure, it doesn't look like the best year for the US to fall into a pile of medals at worlds.
I think Evan has the best chance of any of the US team-but I would feel better if he could manage to give a decent SP in something other than a US Nationals competition.
I don't follow ladies very much, but I don't see any of our top 3 medalling unless it is a total splatfest. Kimmie, formerly the soul of consistent skating, has not put a good SP / good LP combination back to back this year. This is why she has had to come back from 6th place at 4CC's. If Kimmie can get her SP back in control, she will medal. If she doesn't, and if Emily could arrange to skate her SP with the original Wilson choreo and land the flip and lutz fully rotated, she could score very, very well, which would set her up in the final 6, with a small chance for bronze. Sad to say, she has scrapped the lovely Wilson choreo, though. However, refer to the lutz and flip in the 2nd half of her 4C's programs. They were huge and gorgeous. TV tends to make you underestimate just how Huge Emily's jumps are. The girl is at least 5'6" (her USFSA bio) and maybe taller, and you have to remember that when you judge how high she is getting off the ice. If you recall how Julia Sebasteyn and Irina Slutskaya were judged, given huge jumps without flutzing, you will appreciate how Emily gets marks when she succeeds in skating well. In fact Emily seen live reminds me a Lot of Irina seen live. I think she could make top 6.
Dance-B&A have a great OD, as usual. They have a good chance, as result, of skating in the final 6 competitors. Their Amelie program was better at 4C's than at nationals, and they have a significant amount of time to make it even better before Worlds. Dance judging is going to be a crazy free for all. B&A have a shot to get a bronze.
Pairs-the US never politics much for its pairs, and pairs in the rest of the world have been excellent this year. S&Z are pretty much untouchable for gold. They got 203.05 at 4C's. S&S are almost sure to bag either silver or bronze, depending on how they skate. They always get huge PCS scores, and their base difficulty is not shabby (their combined score at Europeans was 199.39.
PetTikhs, Zhangs and Pang and Tong are in the 175 to 185 region, again depending on how they skate.
If you check Castile and Okolski's scores at 4C's, and then check the fact that they landed everything in their LP and skated about as well as they can, they have no chance for a medal. They will be lucky to finish top ten. This is due to the fact that their jumps, as scheduled in the LP are 2A seq 2t with 2t as a single jump, giving them a base score of 53.81 in the LP,, plus they didn't get amazing PCS scores either. Their total score was 160.01 and the one thing they missed all competition was the 2A in the short. If they hit it, it's hard to see them doing better than 165. By contrast, base score for I&B at 4C's was 63.02, S&Z was 59.68, and Pang & Tong 58.78. C&O can't afford to give away that much.
So if either team has a chance, this year, it's I&B. Their 4C's comp was the best they have had this season, scoring a combined scoore of 175.45, which is just at the edge of the ballpark for the bronze. I&B do have a few things going for them: 1. Skated well at 4C's and the last Worlds 2. Beat PetTikhs at GPF and beat S&S in the SP at GPF. 3. Generally skate well in Japan 4. Rena has a large fan base in Japan, and Japan has no pair in the competition. 5. Still have the highest base score going, if they land both 3A's and the 3T. 6. Got rid of those dreadful SP costumes, going back to what looks like their 2002/2003 SP costumes (are new ones being built?) However, even given all that, they have only a tiny chance for a medal at Worlds, given that the US will not be doing any politicking for them. And M&B and D&D have a tiny chance too.
On the negative side, I&B are talking about adding triple twists to their program. I hope they don't. They don't get the height to have a clean twist, and their 3tw was always a chest crash. Their double twists are level four and clean. C&O are talking about changing the SBS 2t to a 3t again. Same problem. They don't land them. M&B have added a 3t 3t sequence which they performed very well at 4C's, only to blow their spins and footwork. Pairs could be a complete splatfest if they all do this.
.
I'm just joking about Mao. Seriously if the pressure doesn't get to her;she'll be pushing 70.00
)
