Which out of Team Canada, Kim, or V&T are biggest gold lock for Sochi

[pangtongfan]

Which out of Team Canada, Kim, or V&T are biggest gold lock for Sochi

It seems that the consensus is that the Team gold for Canada, Kim in the womens, and Volsozhar & Trankov in the pairs are virtual gold locks. Davis & White are now the consensus strong favorites for gold, but not a lock over Virtue & Moir. Many now believe Chan wont even in win the mens gold in Sochi. So out of the 3 near locks, which do you believe is the biggest lock, Canada in the Team event, Kim in the ladies, or Voloszhar & Trankov in the pairs.

 

[Cherryy]

Either Yuna or V/T. Both seem like strong golds but always with small chances of loosing. In my opinion, V/T are even more likely than Yuna to win Sochi gold though I can't really tell why I think so.

 

[chuckm]

Ice is slippery and really, no one is a lock for gold. Kim is the likeliest to win gold, but nothing is sure.

 

[Blades of Passion]

None of these are locks.

 

[blue_idealist]

Yu-Na Kim, I think. V&T have had some bad performances (I know they still won with them but they didn't have much competition with S&S not competing for some of this past season, and not skating their best when they did). Team Russia could beat Canada, depending on how Plushenko skates. They will already have a better pair and likely a better lady (sorry, can't remember if it was going to be one or two ladies in the team event).

 

[Mirunna]

McKayla Maroney was a lock for gold medal in 2012 London Olympics on vault and we all probably know what happened. Nobody is a lock.
If I had to make a bet, I would say V/T. I am not saying Yuna because she will have to face the pressure of being the defending champion, otherwise, I would have my money on her.

 

[jaylee]

I agree, no one is a lock. I would think V/T are the biggest favorites in all the disciplines--they're in Russia, they're going to restore a huge tradition of Russian pairs figure skating being on the Olympic podium, and oh, they're pretty darn good too. S/S are already Olympic bronze medalists; I think there would be more drama if they and V/T were going for their first Olympic medal each, and if last season had been closer between the two.

I actually think D/W and maybe even Patrick Chan ( ) are bigger "locks" than Kim--they each have powerful federations on their side gunning for the first ever gold in that discipline for that country. The men's is so highly competitive that if Patrick has a meltdown though, PCS can't make up for a huge point loss if he misses his quads. The fact that Kim has a gold already is a personal advantage for her (may help her skate more freely), but the judges may have a "share the wealth" mentality and want to keep it close between her and everyone else, so I don't think she's as big a lock as the favorites going for their first OGM.

As for the team event, I think it's between Canada and Russia, edge to Canada.

 

[snsd]

The only results you can predict is V/M and D/W will both be on the podium!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I'd say the "locks" (considering there, in truth, are no locks) are V/T on the podium, D/W and V/M going 1-2 on the podium, and Kim being on the podium.

Ice dance will be a fight for bronze, and that should be pretty interesting. D/W are my picks for gold, but V/M handed them momentum when their Carmen simply didn't work this season.

Pairs should go to V/T, given that the Germans struggle with consistency and V/T get high PCS. But up until Worlds, V/T never had that level of clean programs internationally, so who knows. Around GPF/NRW Trophy time the Germans would have actually beaten the Russians. The Canadian teams have also shown growing consistency but I get the sense that no matter how poorly the Germans/Russians skate and how clean they skate, they'll be fighting for bronze.

Men's is still anybody's game. Hanyu and Fernandez would be my guesses to beat Chan. I would have to see how Ten does in the events leading up to the Olympics, because other than Worlds his season wasn't exactly OGM contender material.

Women's will likely be between Kim and Asada... I think Kostner's the best overall skater out of the three but sorely lacks the consistency and difficulty needed to beat them. At their best (as in, given the best each has ever skated in the past few years and what they have been capable of), Kim will definitely win. Kim, even in her worst programs, has never placed lower than 3rd and even with errors her PCS will be high, hence why I think she's a lock. Part of me thinks Kostner and Asada are podium locks given their placements over cleaner skaters at the past Worlds and uber-high PCS... but I would hope the judges don't pull a Chan-Ten fiasco and gift error-filled skates just because they're better skaters.

 

[ffionhanathomas]

McKayla Maroney was a lock for gold medal in 2012 London Olympics on vault and we all probably know what happened. Nobody is a lock.

Exactly! Completely agree.

 

[pangtongfan]

IMO the biggest gold locks are Volosozhar & Trankov. I give them 95% chance at gold. I really dont think the Germans are any threat to them anymore. Nobody else is either. With Olympics in Russia they will have to skate an awful program to lose.

I would say second is Canada winning the team gold. I give that about 90% chance only since a big injury could happen which is the only way Canada who has by far the deepest overall team could lose.

Kim winning the gold is third. I remember saying I gave Asada 15% chance at the gold and Kostner 5% so that gives Kim 80%.

I give D&W 55% to win, and no particular man anymore than 30% at this point.

 

[FSGMT]

Looking at the scores and the placements that they had this season (winning everything even with big mistakes over other skaters who didn't make mistakes at all, but being able to skate wonderfully, too), I think that V/T have the best chance for the OGM at the moment... In Ladie, it's more difficult: if Yu-Na makes mistakes (since she doesn't have the 3Lo), someone else (either Mao or Caro) could easily win. About Men, I won't say anything, because we've seen how many strange things have happened this season. In Ice Dance, it will depend on which programs D/W and V/M will choose...

 

[vera01]

I think V/M would be better than Finnstep than D/W, as their basic skills were always better than D/W's. Hopefully, V/M would get a good program, maybe even a program that's better than their Mahler FD.

V/T do have highest chance of winning in pairs, since they're currently unbeatable by anyone else. Unless S/S or D/R have skate of their lives and V/T has a meltdown, V/T should be considered as a lock for gold.

 

[chloepoco]

I actually think D/W and maybe even Patrick Chan ( ) are bigger "locks" than Kim--they each have powerful federations on their side gunning for the first ever gold in that discipline for that country. The men's is so highly competitive that if Patrick has a meltdown though, PCS can't make up for a huge point loss if he misses his quads. The fact that Kim has a gold already is a personal advantage for her (may help her skate more freely), but the judges may have a "share the wealth" mentality and want to keep it close between her and everyone else, so I don't think she's as big a lock as the favorites going for their first OGM.

I really dislike when "powerful federations" are brought up as to why a certain skater may win--because to me, that's akin to accusing the federation or judges of dishonesty.

As for my guess as to a "lock" on the gold, I think Yuna Kim. She's just, that good.

 

[vera01]

My pick for ladies is Yuna-she's most likely to skate two clean programs.

 

[Meriona]

My biggest bet at this point would be Yuna (of course!) I can't see anyone taking away gold from her now... unless she does something terribly wrong. And it's Yuna we are talking about, I doubt it's even possible for her to sink that low. I mean, after this years Worlds... and she is existing Olympic champion!
As for V/T... similar situation! OG will be in Russia, so they are clearly set for win. So... for now these two (Yuna and V/T) have my vote, but we must clearly watch next years GP... and, with skating, as I have learned, anything could happen!
Chan in mens... after Worlds scandal, he must be as clean as he could be to renew himself to public... at least, a bit. But, it's Chan. And Canada really needs this gold... so... It's shameful to admit it, because I love mens skating sooo much! And Chan... I've never been a fan.
Dance. I will be "very" original and say it will be D/W and V/M! Obviously! Has anybody doubt that? And russians for third place.

P.S Thanks for your welcome posts! I'll try to post whenever I have something to say. But, I'm glad to be part of such a dynamic and interesting fs community!

 

[pangtongfan]

McKayla Maroney was a lock for gold medal in 2012 London Olympics on vault and we all probably know what happened. Nobody is a lock.
If I had to make a bet, I would say V/T. I am not saying Yuna because she will have to face the pressure of being the defending champion, otherwise, I would have my money on her.

Vault is only one move. You shouldnt even be able to fall in vault finals (1 of only 2 moves you do as there are 2 vaults) and medal at all, let alone win. Maroney winning silver falling on 1 of her 2 vaults, as much as I love her, was embarassing for the vault event. Figure skating has many moves, hence a highly favored skater can easily fall once, some cases more than once (as Patrick Chan loves to remind everyone) and still win at times. Of course hopefully that doesnt happen in any of these cases as the ideal would be the greatest skaters winning with the ultimate peformances.

 

[gmyers]

The biggest lock is Yuna. Sure v/t won worlds with a huge score and a landslide but as the Russian skating continues it's collapse that means more pressure as the only contenders. They did so well in London that saw the singles skaters collapse but they withstood everything and did extremely well. It mgr be just the singles that's collapsing in relevance in seniors. Canada for team or us for team.

 

[ForeverFish]

Vault is only one move. You shouldnt even be able to fall in vault finals (1 of only 2 moves you do as there are 2 vaults) and medal at all, let alone win. Maroney winning silver falling on 1 of her 2 vaults, as much as I love her, was embarassing for the vault event. Figure skating has many moves, hence a highly favored skater can easily fall once, some cases more than once (as Patrick Chan loves to remind everyone) and still win at times. Of course hopefully that doesnt happen in any of these cases as the ideal would be the greatest skaters winning with the ultimate peformances.

Right, but I think Mirunna's point is that anything can happen, and that declaring someone a "lock" based on previous competitions (Maroney was the reigning World Champion on vault; Kim in ladies'; Chan in men's; V/T in pairs; D/W in dance), no matter how exceptional or impressive, won't necessarily translate into results.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Vault is only one move. You shouldnt even be able to fall in vault finals (1 of only 2 moves you do as there are 2 vaults) and medal at all, let alone win. Maroney winning silver falling on 1 of her 2 vaults, as much as I love her, was embarassing for the vault event. Figure skating has many moves, hence a highly favored skater can easily fall once, some cases more than once (as Patrick Chan loves to remind everyone) and still win at times. Of course hopefully that doesnt happen in any of these cases as the ideal would be the greatest skaters winning with the ultimate peformances.

It happened in 2004 in men's vault too where Dragulescu literally stepped off the entire vaulting mat when he landed and still took the bronze over Kyle Shewfelt (who thankfully had a gold already from floor exercise).

Like skating however, if you do high difficulty, it can make up for errors, even a fall... it's not right in theory, but on paper, it's how it works. Maroney's first vault was so incredibly difficult that it essentially guaranteed her the victory had she only done a marginally decent 2nd vault... which is exactly what she didn't do. I feel bad for her... she could have done a wayyy easier second vault and secured the gold (but I guess her 2 vaults were pre-determined and she couldn't change the 2nd vault to an easier one just because she executed the first vault very well).