Who will break Yuna Kim's record and when?

[arewhyaen]

Yuna Kim's performance at the 2010 Olympics is still the world record holder for highest scoring free skate score and total score. In the world of sports, a record standing for 6 years is basically an eternity. Skaters have gotten close - Sotnikova in Sochi, and Medvedeva at the 2015 GPF. Records are meant to be broken, and it's only a matter of time before a skater breaks Kim's records, so I have a few questions for you all:

Who will break Yuna Kim's record?
When will they break it?
and will that performance "deservingly" break the record?

By "deservingly" I mean, judging by skater's programs now, are any of them really better than Yuna Kim's 2010 olympic performance? Or will this skater break the record simply because judges will inflate scores for the sake of breaking the record? Will they really match her speed, the quality of her jumps? I remember a time when it seemed impossible that a ladies skater would ever break 200, but ever since that happened, 200 has become the new benchmark. With that, there have definitely been some skates that would not have broken 200 between 2007-2009 (I'm thinking Miyahara at this year's 4cc).

For reference, below are the top scoring total scores and free skate scores:

Total Score
1 Kim Yuna South Korea 228.56 2010 Winter Olympics
2 Adelina Sotnikova Russia 224.59 2014 Winter Olympics
3 Evgenia Medvedeva Russia 222.54 2015–16 Grand Prix Final
4 Carolina Kostner Italy 216.73 2014 Winter Olympics
5 Mao Asada Japan 216.69 2014 World Championships
6 Satoko Miyahara Japan 214.91 2016 Four Continents
7 Anna Pogorilaya Russia 214.07 2015 Mordovian Ornament
8 Elena Radionova Russia 211.32 2015 Rostelecom Cup
9 E. Tuktamysheva Russia 210.40 2015 European Championships
10 Yulia Lipnitskaya Russia 209.72 2014 European Championships


Free Skate Scores:
1 Kim Yuna South Korea 150.06 2010 Winter Olympics
2 Adelina Sotnikova Russia 149.95 2014 Winter Olympics
3 Evgenia Medvedeva Russia 147.96 2015–16 Grand Prix Final
4 Mao Asada Japan 142.71 2014 Winter Olympics
5 Carolina Kostner Italy 142.61 2014 Winter Olympics
6 Satoko Miyahara Japan 142.43 2016 Four Continents
7 Anna Pogorilaya Russia 141.81 2015 Mordovian Ornament
8 Yulia Lipnitskaya Russia 141.51 2014 Winter Olympics - Team trophy
9 E. Tuktamysheva Russia 141.38 2015 European Championships
10 Ashley Wagner United States 139.77 2015–16 Grand Prix Final

 

[mrrice]

Evgenia Medvedeva, or, a super clean Mao or Gracie. That's it.

Who is Morozov's Top Lady Skater these days? He must have one.

 

[arewhyaen]

Evgenia Medvedeva, and a super clean Mao or Gracie. That's it.

Who is Morozov's Top Lady Skater these days? He must have one.

I don't think he has a top skater, but he did choreograph Radionova's and Pogoliraya's programs this year.

 

[TheCzar]

I sound like such a broken record when I say Asada's freeskate at Sochi should have broken Kim's WR Freeskate, but I've let it go. It's since gained a lot more significance to me than the numbers. In fact, even Carolina's free at Sochi. Having said that- from what you regard as 'deserving' I say none as of yet. Maybe it's because it's not an Olympic year but none of the skaters in the field right now have any freeskates of note. Not even Mao. Sorry, but even I get the feeling that she just wanted to dip her toes in the water again.

Kim's freeskate at Vancouver was such a moment. The stars aligned. She was at the right place, at the right time, and skated wonderfully when it mattered. It then seems silly to me that a child like Medvedeva could even come close to that because of mathematics and youthful energy. Yet the question of whether the judges would give it to her is a looming one. Radionova's out just because of how gauche she is. Satoko could but again, plenty of people would question that given her jumps (she just wouldn't earn all the necessary GOEs if we're judging accurately)

So really, imo- nobody should. Could or would, given the right context is a different can of worms.

 

[dreamsk8]

Mao Asada
2016-2017
Yes she will totally deserve it.

 

[kiara_bleu]

Judging by Medvedeva's score at the GPF, if she dominates (shows she is confident and in control) at Worlds in Boston and goes clean, expect her to break the record. Figure skating needs a female star to drum up interest going into the next Olympics. Getting a world record, especially a long standing one and from a previous skater with a storied career, can create a buzz around her and a pretty good narrative of the "next big thing". In my opinion, she has "star" quality even though I actually love Satoko Miyahara and enjoy Elena Radionova more.

You can never discount Mao Asada but I do wonder who the judges are going to lean towards if she and Medveda have equally strong skates...

 

[NaVi]

Won't be broken before 2018... will probably stand longer than it should because of the change in how GOE is calculated. The WR LP is overrated IMO but there's nothing else you can point to being definitively better.

 

[kiara_bleu]

I sound like such a broken record when I say Asada's freeskate at Sochi should have broken Kim's WR Freeskate, but I've let it go. It's since gained a lot more significance to me than the numbers. In fact, even Carolina's free at Sochi. Having said that- from what you regard as 'deserving' I say none as of yet. Maybe it's because it's not an Olympic year but none of the skaters in the field right now have any freeskates of note. Not even Mao. Sorry, but even I get the feeling that she just wanted to dip her toes in the water again.

Kim's freeskate at Vancouver was such a moment. The stars aligned. She was at the right place, at the right time, and skated wonderfully when it mattered. It then seems silly to me that a child like Medvedeva could even come close to that because of mathematics and youthful energy. Yet the question of whether the judges would give it to her is a looming one. Radionova's out just because of how gauche she is. Satoko could but again, plenty of people would question that given her jumps (she just wouldn't earn all the necessary GOEs if we're judging accurately)

So really, imo- nobody should. Could or would, given the right context is a different can of worms.

"Deserving" is such a loaded word for figure skating I think because there is a big element of subjectivity to it and so people are going to have different opinions and disagree no matter what. That's part of the fun and frustration of being a fan

 

[Babbette1]

Won't be broken before 2018... will probably stand longer than it should because of the change in how GOE is calculated. The WR LP is overrated IMO but there's nothing else you can point to being definitively better.

Yes, this.

I was thinking that changes in rules was the most significant thing.

 

[RABID]

Yuna Kim's performance at the 2010 Olympics is still the world record holder for highest scoring free skate score and total score. In the world of sports, a record standing for 6 years is basically an eternity. Skaters have gotten close - Sotnikova in Sochi, and Medvedeva at the 2015 GPF. Records are meant to be broken, and it's only a matter of time before a skater breaks Kim's records, so I have a few questions for you all:

Who will break Yuna Kim's record?
When will they break it?
and will that performance "deservingly" break the record?

By "deservingly" I mean, judging by skater's programs now, are any of them really better than Yuna Kim's 2010 olympic performance? Or will this skater break the record simply because judges will inflate scores for the sake of breaking the record? Will they really match her speed, the quality of her jumps? I remember a time when it seemed impossible that a ladies skater would ever break 200, but ever since that happened, 200 has become the new benchmark. With that, there have definitely been some skates that would not have broken 200 between 2007-2009 (I'm thinking Miyahara at this year's 4cc).

For reference, below are the top scoring total scores and free skate scores:

Total Score
1 Kim Yuna South Korea 228.56 2010 Winter Olympics
2 Adelina Sotnikova Russia 224.59 2014 Winter Olympics
3 Evgenia Medvedeva Russia 222.54 2015–16 Grand Prix Final
4 Carolina Kostner Italy 216.73 2014 Winter Olympics
5 Mao Asada Japan 216.69 2014 World Championships
6 Satoko Miyahara Japan 214.91 2016 Four Continents
7 Anna Pogorilaya Russia 214.07 2015 Mordovian Ornament
8 Elena Radionova Russia 211.32 2015 Rostelecom Cup
9 E. Tuktamysheva Russia 210.40 2015 European Championships
10 Yulia Lipnitskaya Russia 209.72 2014 European Championships


Free Skate Scores:
1 Kim Yuna South Korea 150.06 2010 Winter Olympics
2 Adelina Sotnikova Russia 149.95 2014 Winter Olympics
3 Evgenia Medvedeva Russia 147.96 2015–16 Grand Prix Final
4 Mao Asada Japan 142.71 2014 Winter Olympics
5 Carolina Kostner Italy 142.61 2014 Winter Olympics
6 Satoko Miyahara Japan 142.43 2016 Four Continents
7 Anna Pogorilaya Russia 141.81 2015 Mordovian Ornament
8 Yulia Lipnitskaya Russia 141.51 2014 Winter Olympics - Team trophy
9 E. Tuktamysheva Russia 141.38 2015 European Championships
10 Ashley Wagner United States 139.77 2015–16 Grand Prix Final

The way things are now it's surprising it hasn't been broken already. Right now my opinion (and I'm sure it's shared by many)is that it wouldn't be a big deal because of high expectations for that eventuality. What would really surprise me is if her record somehow manages to survive into the next Olympics. But sometime these things defy expectations with opportunities missed and then after awhile new rules come around with the effect of closing those windows of opportunity. Nevertheless as it stands now that window is wide open.

 

[begin]

I sound like such a broken record when I say Asada's freeskate at Sochi should have broken Kim's WR Freeskate, but I've let it go. It's since gained a lot more significance to me than the numbers. In fact, even Carolina's free at Sochi. Having said that- from what you regard as 'deserving' I say none as of yet. Maybe it's because it's not an Olympic year but none of the skaters in the field right now have any freeskates of note. Not even Mao. Sorry, but even I get the feeling that she just wanted to dip her toes in the water again.

Kim's freeskate at Vancouver was such a moment. The stars aligned. She was at the right place, at the right time, and skated wonderfully when it mattered. It then seems silly to me that a child like Medvedeva could even come close to that because of mathematics and youthful energy. Yet the question of whether the judges would give it to her is a looming one. Radionova's out just because of how gauche she is. Satoko could but again, plenty of people would question that given her jumps (she just wouldn't earn all the necessary GOEs if we're judging accurately)

So really, imo- nobody should. Could or would, given the right context is a different can of worms.

All of this.

Someone's going to call me a hater but I dread Medvedeva breaking the record this season. 100% done with what they're trying to do. It's only her first year! What the hell are the judges thinking? Three years later and it's like they can't move on from the Russian wonderbabies narrative. They keep pushing the scores of every talented pubescent debuting as if to say, "Look how impressive this little girl is!"

Well I don't want to be wowed by teenagers getting absurd numbers! I want to watch these teenagers grow into amazing skaters and wow me themselves! And they can do that if the judges would please stop ******* around with PCS and GOEs!

 

[petitebrie]

As mentioned, it’s important to note that the scoring system was different in 2010. In 2010 Yuna built up a huge TES margin because the GOE were worth more (which is why she consistently placed in the high 70s in the short, something that rarely happens these days unless you have a 3A). Moreover, base values are constantly being revised, making it difficult to compare across seasons.

If we want to play with hypothetical scenarios, data and numbers: With the GOE and PCS inflation in later years she would still have received very close to that score if it had taken place in e.g. Sochi or this season’s GPF. Compared to today the skate had less backloading and transitions and an extra 2A, but the judges would probably have given numerically higher GOE, "neutralising" the effect of the lowered GOE values. In Vancouver Yuna got 7 +3s, versus Evgenia’s 20 at the GPF. And yes, Yuna had a ‘tano in her programme.

It’s probably safe to say that while neither Evgenia’s nor Satoko’s jumps are anywhere near the quality of Yuna’s, they have much higher BV and get 2016-level and not 2010-level GOE. The technical level besides jumps is rising – transitions, choreo, spins and step sequences are becoming more complex and are scored higher, even among junior skaters.

Post-Sochi scores have migrated towards the high 140s for clean free skates, so I’m not sure if there’s much of a watershed left to break. It obviously depends on how generous the judges’ panel is, and I think the decisive factor may be PCS – Evgenia has been getting 9.50s and higher this season, setting a precedent for the judges at Worlds which could put a new high score within her grasp. A flawless skate like at the GPF with a few 10.00s in the mix, and she could push 149 – whether it's deserved or not is another discussion. If Mao or Carolina could put together technically perfect programmes, they have the component scores to break records. Adelina has improved her artistry a lot and has the Olympic champion bonus, if she were to come back with stable jumps and a true Lutz she could score very high as well.

I’m too busy at the moment to take time to compile something like it, but is there a statistic on distribution of scores by season? You could for example look at whether scores are generally getting higher, or if there’s just higher scores being given to a small group of top skaters. Or if higher GOE are being awarded across the board or if I’m just imagining things.

 

[ice coverage]

Yuna Kim's performance at the 2010 Olympics is still the world record holder for highest scoring free skate score and total score. ...

As mentioned, it’s important to note that the scoring system was different in 2010. ... Moreover, base values are constantly being revised, making it difficult to compare across seasons. ...

Thx, petitebrie .

And the ISU would not approve of the reference to "world record holder" in the OP.

The best results achieved in competitions operating under the ISU Judging System are referred to as "highest scores" and "personal bests". The ISU does not currently recognize the highest scores as "World records".

http://www.isu.org/en/single-and-pa...ncluding-personal-bestseason-best-information​

 

[moriel]

For me, that record is already broken.
If the performance was scored according to current system (for example, GOE calculations), it would be lower.

 

[MaxSwagg]

It's hard when she got it with wonky valuations and GOE scaling. It's going to take someone with two triple triples and crystal clean skating. That just shows how flawed the valuations where back then...

 

[randomfan]

All of this.

Someone's going to call me a hater but I dread Medvedeva breaking the record this season. 100% done with what they're trying to do. It's only her first year! What the hell are the judges thinking? Three years later and it's like they can't move on from the Russian wonderbabies narrative. They keep pushing the scores of every talented pubescent debuting as if to say, "Look how impressive this little girl is!"

Well I don't want to be wowed by teenagers getting absurd numbers! I want to watch these teenagers grow into amazing skaters and wow me themselves! And they can do that if the judges would please stop ******* around with PCS and GOEs!

Nice to see that there's someone who is thinking the exact same as me!

And also, people are noting that the rules each year make the judging system slightly different each time. While that is very true for TES, the rules for PCS has had little changes over the last 7 years that hardly give differences. The criteria is still the same, the way of marking is the same, etc. Yuna received a 71+ PCS for her 2010 Olympic LP. Honestly Mao should be the only skater this season to constantly be going over 70 in PCS because she is by far the most artistic along with amazing skating skills and nice transitions. Ashley is also deserving to pass 70 only if she has a show-stopper bringing-house-down near-flawless skate. She's only had one skate like that this season, which was at the GPF which deservedley passed 70 in PCS.

If someone was to break the LP or total score WR this season, I'd very honestly be angry :curse: if it was anyone not named Mao Asada. She has both the technical and artistic goods.

 

[mrrice]

I want to agree this sentiment but, I just don't. Medvedeva gets her big numbers because she deserves them. I don't believe in making a skater "Wait There Turn" if she's the best in the event, then she should win, Period. Now, if everyone skates their best, I'd give it to Mao, then Gracie, followed by Med. But that's just me. Now, I would love to see Ashley get a standing ovation and come in 4th. If the others skate clean she simply can't match up technically.

What I'm also looking for is Polina to set herself as the future of US ladies skating. It would be great to see her in the final flight and even if she finishes 6th, I think she should be very proud of herself. Of course if the top ladies skate badly, she could medal. Gawd..........No I have a headache.

 

[thegreendestiny]

I'm sorry but I really don't get how Gracie is even considered a contender for WR.

Given the quality of her movements, a WR from her even with super-clean performance is just insulting to Kim's.

She's more like a lesser version of Adelina who has always been a bridesmaid of upcoming phenoms.

 

[jenaj]

Probably soon, by Medvedeva. Or Tuk, potentially, if she ever recovers her triple axel. But it is all meaningless. The rules changed after 2010. There is no spiral sequence, there is a limit on double axels and GOE scoring changed.

 

[jenaj]

I'm sorry but I really don't get how Gracie is even considered a contender for WR.

Given the quality of her movements, a WR from her even with super-clean performance is just insulting to Kim's.

She's more like a lesser version of Adelina who has always been a bridesmaid of upcoming phenoms.

I disagree. Gracie definitely has the talent to be among the top scoring skaters. The quality of her movements is a subjective thing. I think she is a decent COP skater. At least she doesn't skate with a flexed foot!