Who will make it to the GP final?

[Li'Kitsu]

I'm not russian, and I don't see the "Adelina is afraid" thing either

But hey, maybe, if Adelina does end up skating badly at nationals, that would be too because she was afraid of going to Euros & Worlds = outside of Russia? Yes, we just got an excuse if she doesn't skate well. She just didn't want to win

 

[wokulski]

I'm not russian, and I don't see the "Adelina is afraid" thing either

But hey, maybe, if Adelina does end up skating badly at nationals, that would be too because she was afraid of going to Euros & Worlds = outside of Russia? Yes, we just got an excuse if she doesn't skate well. She just didn't want to win

Jesus, you cant see that she doesnt want to compete outside of russia,that clearly to see.. In russia there re many skater(Liza,Elena,now Evgenia) and even its not sure she will go to euro , she is gold medalist form Olympic ,for gods sake,and she is afraid,I repeat (no scared) because there are better than her, even in Russia
At a late stage she decided to compete in CoR,btw why she is in CoR ,not skate canada or america

PS Dear russians, Dutchmen remember reporting my posts doenst change anything

 

[cheerknithanson]

Wow. I feel like scrambled eggs of scores are going to come up.

 

[jax]

Wow this thread went to hell quickly!

 

[solar]

I'm a bit unclear about the new GPF qualifications (6 + someone from TEB?). How does this affect who's likely to qualify?

 

[ice coverage]

I'm a bit unclear about the new GPF qualifications ...

The ISU has give no official word on how (or even whether) it will be modifying the GPF qualification requirements -- in light of the cancellation of TEB.

What to expect is thus completely unclear to one and all.

Proposals and rumored proposals are floating around, but the ISU has said nothing definitive.

 

[solar]

The ISU has give no official word on how (or even whether) it will be modifying the GPF qualification requirements -- in light of the cancellation of TEB.

What to expect is thus completely unclear to one and all.

Proposals and rumored proposals are floating around, but the ISU has said nothing definitive.

Oh, I must've caught on to one of the rumors. I'm anticipating their decision...

 

[ginsengtea]

so after V/T's withdrawal from NHK do Yu/Jin perhaps have a shot of qualifying for the Final?

 

[solar]

so after V/T's withdrawal from NHK do Yu/Jin perhaps have a shot of qualifying for the Final?

I was actually wondering the same....

 

[s_parks]

so after V/T's withdrawal from NHK do Yu/Jin perhaps have a shot of qualifying for the Final?

They have a shot, at least. T/M are less likely than y/j to make it at this point (if we're really going by the sp for teb) with their placements. It'll come down to how scimeca/knierim perform. We'll see how the two stack up against each other scores-wise at nhk, though I think the judges may give y/j the nod if both go clean(based on each team's 1st gp scores, but it's hard to compare with different panels). If Savchenko/massot get the nhk spot (not sure how likely this is, but it's not impossible), then y/j are most likely not going to finish higher than 3rd. But depending on what the isu officially decides for the gpf, they may still have a chance.

 

[ginsengtea]

They have a shot, at least. T/M are less likely than y/j to make it at this point (if we're really going by the sp for teb) with their placements. It'll come down to how scimeca/knierim perform. We'll see how the two stack up against each other scores-wise at nhk, though I think the judges may give y/j the nod if both go clean(based on each team's 1st gp scores, but it's hard to compare with different panels). If Savchenko/massot get the nhk spot (not sure how likely this is, but it's not impossible), then y/j are most likely not going to finish higher than 3rd. But depending on what the isu officially decides for the gpf, they may still have a chance.

The Japanese Fed already picked Fancy/Boyadji as replacements, so yeah I think Y/J have a really good chance of winning silver there. And I would assume P/Z's chances are slim too now right? Unless they do the thing where they add in a seventh entry at the Final for TEB competitors.

 

[moriel]

Japan Open is a TEAM competition,not individual. It's ridiculous to compare them.
In Mordovian Open she was overscored ,no doubt about that(i believe you havent forgotten that they didnt notice her mistakes,underotations etc) and giving her over 36 PCs is just piteous . There were some morons who gave her 9.75 for chopreography or interpretation and 9.50 for SS.:hslap: Did they think its Olympic games?

There are also the morons who give Gracie 9+ for interpretation, so whats wrong? Adelinas IN is better than Gracies, so whats wrong with the score?

 

[tulosai]

Ugh okay, this is how I think things stand. If I forget or botch anything or anyone let me know, TEB really messed everything up.

Ladies

Definitely in: Evgenia Medvedeva, Elena Radionova, Gracie Gold (presuming TEB short placements used in almost any way)
Presumably only need 5th at NHK to be in for sure, and so almost definitely in as their finishing lower would be nearly unthinkable: Mao Asada, Ashley Wagner
Presumably needs 3rd at NHK to pull it out: Satoko
People whose destinies are unclear: Liza T

Dance

Definitely in: Chock/Bates, Cappelini/Lanotte, Weaver/Poje
People whose destinies are unclear at this point and depend either on how they skate at NHK or on how TEB is ultimately handled: Bobrova/Soloviev, Shibutanis, Sinisina/Katsalopov, Gillies/Porier, Hubbell/Donohue

Pairs

Definitely in: Sui/Han, Kavaguti/Smirnov
Presumably pretty much definitely in at this point, maybe even definitely, too tired to do math: Stolbova/Klimov
Will get in for sure at NHK: Duhamel/Radford
Dunno about the last two spots, hopefully someone smarter than I am can help out. Seguin and Bilodeau might actually have one of them more or less locked now that V/T have withdrawn? Peng/Zhang might sneak the other?

Men

Gonna let someone else tackle these guys. Fernandez and Uno are presumably in for sure though.

 

[Lys]

Men

Gonna let someone else tackle these guys. Fernandez and Uno are presumably in for sure though.

If I'm not makin mistakes and assuming TEB sp points:

IN: Uno, Fernandez, Chan
Pretty much IN: Hanyu, Kovtun, Jin (need top-4 finish at NHK in any order as long as Hochstein or Menshov don't win)
Unclear and depending on isu ruling: Murakami and I guess Aaron, too

 

[Crossover]

Ugh okay, this is how I think things stand. If I forget or botch anything or anyone let me know, TEB really messed everything up.

Ladies

Definitely in: Evgenia Medvedeva, Elena Radionova, Gracie Gold (presuming TEB short placements used in almost any way)
Presumably only need 5th at NHK to be in for sure, and so almost definitely in as their finishing lower would be nearly unthinkable: Mao Asada, Ashley Wagner
Presumably needs 3rd at NHK to pull it out: Satoko
People whose destinies are unclear: Liza T

Pogorilaya still can have a chance for GPF if she repeats her performances at Mordovian at NHK.
Her placing at 2nd would be higher standing than Miyahara.

 

[silverlake22]

Assuming Ashley and Mao are in, last entry will likely come down to Satoko or Anna.

If Satoko is 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, she beats Liza and Rika out for the 6th spot (though Liza may be admitted as a 7th entrant). But if she's 3rd and Anna is 2nd, Anna would beat her in the tiebreaker and get the last spot.

I don't really see Satoko or Anna winning NHK, but I do think 2nd or 3rd is possible for either.

So basically:

If Anna is 2nd (or higher) , and Satoko does not win, Anna makes it.
If Anna is 3rd or lower, she loses the tiebreak to Rika and Liza and is definitely out.

If Satoko is 2nd, she's in (unless Anna wins).
If Satoko is 3rd and Anna is not 2nd or higher, she's in.
If Satoko is 4th or lower, she loses the tiebreak with Rika and Liza and is definitely out.

Big opportunity for Satoko and Anna here. Will be curious to see if either can take advantage of it. If Pogo can refind her Mordovian form, I think she has a decent shot at 2nd (call me crazy), just because Ashley tends to have URs early in the season and Satoko's jump quality is not great. 3rd place should be very doable for Miyahara, but in the event Mao, Ashley, and Anna all skate clean, I would have her in 4th probably.

 

[Hyena]

Now that we have an official statement from the ISU: http://static.isu.org/media/1012/1980-isu-gp-fra-2015-partial-cancelation-info-to-members-public.pdf

It seems like the 7th place skater/team will be invited to the GPF IF they competed at TEB. Based on who we know is in and who is probably in after NHK, it seems pretty likely that we'll see Daisuke Murakami and either Seguin/Bilodeau or James/Cipres at the final.

Elizaveta will be in if Satoko and Anna finish no higher than fourth and third, respectively. Both Satoko and Anna would have 20 points than, but Liza's second place finish at Skate Canada beats their third place finishes. If either Satoko places third or higher or Anna places second or higher, they'll push Liza down past 7th place and she won't qualify to the final.

 

[silverlake22]

Now that we have an official statement from the ISU: http://static.isu.org/media/1012/1980-isu-gp-fra-2015-partial-cancelation-info-to-members-public.pdf

It seems like the 7th place skater/team will be invited to the GPF IF they competed at TEB. Based on who we know is in and who is probably in after NHK, it seems pretty likely that we'll see Daisuke Murakami and either Seguin/Bilodeau or James/Cipres at the final.

Elizaveta will be in if Satoko and Anna finish no higher than fourth and third, respectively. Both Satoko and Anna would have 20 points than, but Liza's second place finish at Skate Canada beats their third place finishes. If either Satoko places third or higher or Anna places second or higher, they'll push Liza down past 7th place and she won't qualify to the final.

No, I actually think Rika is beating Liza in the tiebreaker. They both have 5+2 so 20 points, but the total score tiebreaker is based off the SP. Rika has 65 and 63 whereas Liza has 55 and 56. So that will make things tougher. I think for Liza to make it, she'll need Anna to place 3rd or lower AND Satoko to place 4th or lower. I think realistically, we could very well see Satoko and Anna in 3rd and 4th place, but I'm not sure of the order, especially in Japan.

 

[catija]

thanks everyone for doing the math so i don't have to! lol

 

[Rissa]

No, I actually think Rika is beating Liza in the tiebreaker. They both have 5+2 so 20 points, but the total score tiebreaker is based off the SP. Rika has 65 and 63 whereas Liza has 55 and 56. So that will make things tougher. I think for Liza to make it, she'll need Anna to place 3rd or lower AND Satoko to place 4th or lower. I think realistically, we could very well see Satoko and Anna in 3rd and 4th place, but I'm not sure of the order, especially in Japan.

So if NHK goes: 1. Mao. 2. Ashley 3. Pogo 4. Satoko then both Liza and Rika make it? Rika due to winning the tie breaker and Liza due to grabbing the extra spot?

I'd be extatic if that happened to be honest, because I love Rika and wouldn't mind an extra skater at GPF but the only sure-ish bet for getting those placements is Mao... Ashley could mrss up easily, Pogo could screw up like whoa, Satoko tends to be fairly consistent and could quite likely get over Pogo... The perfect storm of circumstances for Liza to get in seems a bit remote.