Who will make it to the JGP final?

[Lipea]

thanks for the calculations Lipea!


I'll cross my fingers tho I want Diana & Alisa in the final

Hahaha, then, you have to wish Marin either win or lose the podium.
Because if she wins, Alisa goes to final.
But if somehow she has very bad day and loses to Paige, then Alisa will go to final or both Alisa and Diana will go to final (if, at the same time, Diana wins).

 

[Sugarpova]

Hahaha, then, you have to wish Marin either win or lose the podium.
Because if she wins, Alisa goes to final.
But if somehow she has very bad day and loses to Paige, then Alisa will go to final or both Alisa and Diana will go to final (if, at the same time, Diana wins).

lol our rooting for Paige didnt work out~!:disagree:

 

[OS]

So, at the last event, we really have only 6+ possible outcomes in ladies:
1. Diana/Wakaba/Marin = Diana and Marin go to final
2. Diana/Marin/Wakaba = Diana and Marin go to final
3. Marin/Diana/Wakaba = Marin and Alisa go to final (I very much doubt Diana can score higher than Alisa)
4. Marin/Wakaba/Diana = Marin and Alisa go to final
5. Wakaba/Diana/Marin = Wakaba and Marin go to final
6. Wakaba/Marin/Diana = Wakaba and Marin go to final
+A very little chance (I'd say 5-10%) that Paige will break through to the podium.

Therefore:
Marin's chances to be in the final are about 90% +
Wakaba's chances to be in the final are about 30%+
Diana's chances to be in the final are about 30%+
Alisa's chances to be in the final are about 35%+ (the extra 5% is in case if Paige outscores Marin| or Diana, if Wakaba is not first)

Option 6 pls 30% is not hopeless!

 

[AlexRus]

+A very little chance (I'd say 5-10%) that Paige will break through to the podium.

Ivett Toth, I believe, has higher chance. Very nice skater.
But total chance that somebody wll be ahead Marin, making her 4th, yes, is about 10% or less.

 

[Jammers]

Paige looks and skates a lot like Gracie but also tends to freeze up when she competes just like Gracie.

 

[Lipea]

Ivett Toth, I believe, has higher chance. Very nice skater.
But total chance that somebody wll be ahead Marin, making her 4th, yes, is about 10% or less.

Yes, I was waiting for the surprise moment, so it became Ivett (although very underscored). I hope she will show a clean LP.

 

[cheerknithanson]

He Zhang got 4th. So that means Vincent is in.

 

[cheerknithanson]

So as of right now, we have:

Russia: 9 entries.
Japan: 3 entries.
USA: 3 entries.
Canada: 1 entry.
Czech Republic: 1 entry.
Israel: 1 entry.
Ukraine: 1 entry.
France: 1 entry.

And I mean SET IN STONE QUALIFIED.

4 more entries yet to be confirmed.

 

[cheerknithanson]

UPDATE:
Russia: 10 entries.
Japan: 3 entries.
USA: 4 entries.
Canada: 1 entry.
Czech Republic: 1 entry.
Israel: 1 entry.
Ukraine: 1 entry.
France: 1 entry.

Two spots in ladies have yet to be confirmed. But I'm pretty sure it's going to be either Russian or Japanese or both that'll be qualifying.

 

[Layback11]

Marin is in.

Apparently the car ad I saw was correct about "HONDA WINS!", lol. Good for her !

So sad for Wakaba. that was not what anybody (much less she) wanted.

 

[cheerknithanson]

Russia: 11 entries.
Japan: 4 entries.
USA: 4 entries.
Canada: 1 entry.
Czech Republic: 1 entry.
Israel: 1 entry.
Ukraine: 1 entry.
France: 1 entry.

That's it.

 

[gnom]

So sad that Deniss Vasiljevs missed the final by a hair's breadth.

 

[cheerknithanson]

So sad that Deniss Vasiljevs missed the final by a hair's breadth.

Me too. But still, just that fact he was that close is something to be proud of. Especially due to the fact that he's from a country that doesn't have a deep and complex field.

 

[Sugarpova]

Deniss

Alisa & Marin!

 

[hanca]

Well, Diana did pretty well on her 1st event but it was not the best she can do. I could see her scoring 170. Besides Yura was overscored, I doubt that we will see a similar score from her in the next event assuming she will be there.

Sima's situation is most challenging. Since Russia doesn't have a single substitute she has to skate at the next event. This could be a recipe for a disaster but this is also an opportunity for her to show how mentally tough she really is.

I love your optimism regarding Pervushkina, but her personal best is 159! Last season her scores (including home competitions) ranged from 143-158. Realistically I think there is bigger chance of Serafima pulling herself together, than hoping that Pervushkina scoring some amazing score. Even if Yura was over scored, I can't see Pervushkina beating her. Whereas I could see Serafima beating her.

Last year means pretty much nothing this year and this year means pretty much nothing next year. That PB came with a bad fall at her opening jump in FS and that isn't the only thing she can improve. I can definitely see that she can score above 110 points in FS with a clean skate. And with a clean SP that would be enough for a total score about 170. Whether she will skate clean or not and whether that will be enough to beat Yura or not remains to be seen.

Last year may mean nothing, but the fact that she has NEVER scored higher than 159 (not even at home competitions) makes it less likely that she will suddenly score around 180. She didn't improve that'll much, otherwise she wouldn't be doing so average at her previous competition this year.

Well, in reality you are the only one speaking about 180. It is also very funny that since Yura scored close to a 180 points people started to think that this would be a normal score for her at every competition now on which is most definitely not the case at this point. Despite watching several of Yura's videos before JGP Spain I did not see that she could score that high but I did see that she can score a lot more than her earlier PB which was something like 146. And based on Alisa's 1st event I could also very easily see that she can score above 180. If the skills are there now it doesn't matter what they scored last year at their domestic competitions.

Alright. So where is Pervushkina's scoring? I hate to tell you 'I told you so' but surprise-surprise, Pervushkina again scored less then 160. Well, she is lucky that there were only two strong skaters because with 153.23 she has no chance getting anywhere, especially in Russia.

 

[Layback11]

IFS Magazine posted the JGPF rosters on twitter. Sylvia of UnseenSkaters replied to it saying who the alternates were. And two things.

1) Wakaba wasn't one

2) butbutbut it gets better! It's not all bad news, because...

VIVIAN

IS :dance:

THIRD

ALTERNATE!!!!!!

 

[solar]

Who are the alternates for the ladies event?

 

[Layback11]

Who are the alternates for the ladies event?

1st Alt: Kaori Sakamoto
2nd Alt: Da Bin Choi
3rd Alt: Vivian Le

 

[solar]

1st Alt: Kaori Sakamoto
2nd Alt: Da Bin Choi
3rd Alt: Vivian Le

Thanks! Good for Vivian for becoming an alternate at her first GP

 

[The Finn]

Alright. So where is Pervushkina's scoring? I hate to tell you 'I told you so' but surprise-surprise, Pervushkina again scored less then 160. Well, she is lucky that there were only two strong skaters because with 153.23 she has no chance getting anywhere, especially in Russia.

She did really well in her SP but her FS was very poor. Naturally I was right on this one because with a clean FS she most denitinely would have scored about 170 after scoring 60.5 in her SP.

Last year means pretty much nothing this year and this year means pretty much nothing next year. That PB came with a bad fall at her opening jump in FS and that isn't the only thing she can improve. I can definitely see that she can score above 110 points in FS with a clean skate. And with a clean SP that would be enough for a total score about 170. Whether she will skate clean or not and whether that will be enough to beat Yura or not remains to be seen.