Who will make it to the JGP final?

[Ice Dance]

Hiwatashi is a very good skater but he is 17 and still jump girl's content (even without 3A), so i don't think he can win in Italy.

He looks to have watered down his jumps while coming back from injury. He attempted and struggled with both a quad & axel all last season. (Had a beautiful 3 axel just at the tail end of 2015-2016 during Nationals & Juniors Worlds--prior to leaving Ouriashev). Tomoki may still be in the recovery process, in which case it is an achievement for him just to earn the second event.

Even if he upgrades, he is still a longshot based on what we saw from him last season. But it isn't that he isn't capable of more than he has. He has the second mark and bested a lot of far better skaters than are in this field back at Junior Worlds in 2016.

 

[randomfan]

For Alena and Sofia not to pass Eunsoo, they'd have to finish 5th or lower. If either of them were 5th, whether they were below Eunsoo would depend on total score. Alena would have to score under 151.01 and Sofia would have to score under 161.06.

Summary: Eunsoo would need two of these things to happen:
- Alena 5th with a score under 151.01 or lower than 5th with any score
- Sofia 5th with a score under 161.06 or lower than 5th with any score

Actually, both Sofia and Alena must be 6th or lower, because 1+5 would be considered better than 2+4 anyway, regardless of the total score. This is because Sofia and Alena’s highest placements were 1st place, compared to Eunsoo’s which was 2nd place which is looked at when the total placement score is equal (in this case all three skaters’ scores would be 6).

Honestly, I find it kinda stupid that the rules make these placements more important than the actual scores.

 

[SnowWhite]

Actually, both Sofia and Alena must be 6th or lower, because 1+5 would be considered better than 2+4 anyway, regardless of the total score. This is because Sofia and Alena’s highest placements were 1st place, compared to Eunsoo’s which was 2nd place which is looked at when the total placement score is equal (in this case all three skaters’ scores would be 6).

Honestly, I find it kinda stupid that the rules make these placements more important than the actual scores.

Oh of course. I just forgot that rule for a second.

 

[Ice Dance]

Honestly, I find it kinda stupid that the rules make these placements more important than the actual scores.

I don't. I find that often scores run high or low in individual competitions, and I don't believe that such a scenario in one competition should outweigh the significance of the others. There's no perfect way to qualify athletes into the JGPF. It's worth what it's worth. A good many Junior World medalists didn't qualify for the JGPF during the same season. Often enough, they miss it all together. Plus, there are almost always junior age-eligible contenders who don't compete the JGP. But the Final is a great experience for the athletes who do qualify, and breakthroughs do happen here.

 

[el henry]

Many boys start to jump quads only after 17-18. All the boys are very cute and consistent (like Kovalev and Skirda) until they do not try 3A and quads. Big jumps break everything. Petrov was very promising when he was younger, but now he is 18 and his quad (4T only) is still incosistent. RusFed is right when supports elder boys who already can jump quads. They are not so cute, but now if you jump quads consistently you'll get also good PCS score.

Hiwatashi is a very good skater but he is 17 and still jump girl's content (even without 3A), so i don't think he can win in Italy.

No. 1: Tomoki has landed 3A and he has done it in previous JGPs. He has been injured and has not put a 3A in his programs this year.

No. 2: I don't know what is meant by the phrase "girl's content". That adds nothing to the thought. If you want to say that you don't think that Tomoki can win because he has not landed a 3A this season, that is a valid comment.

I am saying this because I have seen some folks use the term in a sexist, demeaning manner, as if there was something "wrong" or "weak" with a boy who jumped "like a girl". That may not have been your intent, so I am not saying that was the use here. But that kind of use saddens me, as such stereotypical thinking has no place in the year 2017.

 

[Chemistry66]

After the SD, Polishchuk/Vakhnov are in 1st and look in easy contention to get their required 1st-4th to qualify.

Ushakova/Nekrasov are in 2nd. If they stay there, they need at least a 79.57 in the FD to overtake Konkina/Yakushev and qualify. Their PB is 83.32 from earlier this season in Minsk, so they could certainly do so, but can't afford multiple errors.

Ice Dance chances now:

(Above the line are in for sure)

1) Carreira/Ponomarenko (USA) - 30, 1st + 1st
2) Skoptcova/Aleshin (RUS) - 28, 1st + 2nd, 294.42
3) Lajoie/Lagha (CAN) - 28, 1st + 2nd, 289.22
4) Shevchenko/Eremenko - 28, 1st + 2nd, 285.96
__________________________________________
5) Konkina/Yakushev - 24, 2nd + 3rd, 283.57
6) Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov - 24, 2nd + 3rd, 265.65
7) Green/Green - 22, 3rd + 3rd

Still to skate in Italy who could make the final:

Polishchuk/Vahknov (RUS) - 15, 1st, 145.86
Ushakova/Nekrasov (RUS) - 11, 3rd, 142.94

(A few more teams could be alternates IF and only IF they won)

Polishchuk/Vakhnov are in if they medal or get 4th (since they win the placement tiebreaker because of their gold in their first event). If they get 5th, they're out/likely an alternate.
Ushakova/Nekrasov are in for sure with a 1st. If they're 2nd they're in IF they get a total higher than Konkina/Yakushev (regardless of Polishchuk/Vakhnov), OR IF they get at least higher than Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov (but not higher than Konkina/Yakushev) and something happens to Polishchuk/Vakhnov. 2nd with a lower total than Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov and they're out/alternates. 3rd and they're out/alternates.

Final will most likely be Carreira/Ponomarenko, Skoptcova/Aleshin, Lajoie/Lagha, Shevchenko/Eremenko, and then Polishchuk/Vakhnov + one of Konkina/Yakushev and Ushakova/Nekrasov who have very similar scores this season.

Too bad for Shpilevaya/Smirnov who are dealing with injury, and Corentin/Rahier who had to withdraw from their second JGP after the SD, who had chance of qualifying.

 

[Chemistry66]

After the first, the free skate looks like it'll be very interesting. If placements stay the same, then for JGPF:

- Hiwatashi and Murashov are both out (need to place at least 2nd to have any chance even before tiebreakers)
- Ignatov is in
- Torgashev would need at least a 123.01 to overtake Joseph Phan on the total score tiebreaker, which is doable based on his PB of 139.44

The spoilers have seemingly done their jobs, making the FS really matter.

Men's chances now:

(Above the line are in for sure)

1) Alexey Erokohv (RUS) - 30, 1st + 1st, 454.68
2) Alexei Krasnozhon (USA) - 30, 1st + 1st, 434.85
3) Camden Pulkinen (USA) - 28, 1st + 2nd
4) Mitsuki Sumoto (JPN) - 24, 1st + 4th
_________________________________________
5) Makar Ignatov (RUS) - 24, 2nd + 3rd
6) Joseph Phan (CAN) - 22, 2nd + 4th, 404.74
7) Luc Economides (FRA) - 22, 2nd + 4th, 386.55
8) Roman Savosin (RUS) - 22, 2nd + 4th, 383.74

Still to go in Italy:
Andrew Torgashev (USA) - 13, 2nd, 212.71
Tomoki Hiwatashi (USA) - 11, 3rd, 189.89
Igor Murashov (RUS) - 11, 3rd, 186.76

Torgashev is in with a 1st or 2nd. With a 3rd, he needs to beat Ignatov on the score tiebreaker and one of Hiwatashi/Murashov to get a low enough score OR if below Ignatov's total both others must get below Ignatov. With a 4th, he'd need to win the score tiebreaker over Phan AND hope both Hiwatashi/Murashov to get no better than bronze. 5th or lower, he's out.

Hiwatashi is in with a 1st. With a 2nd, he's in if he beats Ignatov on the score tiebreaker and Torgashev wins or gets bronze without Murashov winning; if he beats Ignatov on the tiebreaker and Murashov wins, he's in only if Torgashev gets bronze with a low enough score or lower than bronze. With a 3rd, he's out because he loses the placement tiebreaker to Phan.

Murashov is in with a 1st. The other situations mirror Hiwatashi's possibilities exactly, just with slightly different score tiebreaker totals needed.

Likely final is Erokhov, Krasnozhon, Pulkinen, Sumoto, and then Torgashev and one of Ignatov or Hiwatashi (since Hiwatashi has higher PB than Ignatov but Ignatov has the higher scores this season)

(ETA to put Sumoto in as mentioned below by another poster, because his gold ensures he'll win any tiebreakers and only two of Torgashev/Hiwatashi/Murashov could beat him by total placement points anyway)

(ETA again: Also, if Russia decides to replace Samoilov with Rukhin, Rukhin's qualification path is the same as Hiwatashi or Murashov.)

 

[SnowWhite]

For ice dance, we have:

Qualified
1. Carreira/Ponomarenko — 30
2. Skoptcova/Aleshin — 28
3. Polishchuk/Vakhnov — 28
4. Lajoie/Lagha — 28
5. Shevchenko/Eremenko — 28
6. Ushakova/Nekrasov — 26

Subs
1. Konkina/Yakushev — 24
2. Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov — 24
3. Green/Green — 22

 

[Chemistry66]

For ice dance, we have:

Qualified
1. Carreira/Ponomarenko — 30
2. Skoptcova/Aleshin — 28
3. Polishchuk/Vakhnov — 28
4. Lajoie/Lagha — 28
5. Shevchenko/Eremenko — 28
6. Ushakova/Nekrasov — 26

Subs
1. Konkina/Yakushev — 24
2. Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov — 24
3. Green/Green — 22

Yes, and I started a Qualifiers thread in the actual JGPF subforum for ease.

 

[skatenewbie]

Men JGPF

Qualified:

Alexei Krasnozhon 30p
Alexey Erokhov 30p
Camden Pulkinen 28p
Mitsuki Sumoto 24p
Makar Ignatov 24p
Andre Torgashev 22p

Substitute:
Joseph Phan 22p
Tomoki Hiwatashi 22p
Luc Economides 22p

Rizzo would be 5th subs with 20p (Roman Savosin is 4th subs with 22p), sad that he bombed his first event, otherwise he could go to JGPF

 

[Chemistry66]

Men JGPF

Qualified:

Alexei Krasnozhon 30p
Alexey Erokhov 30p
Camden Pulkinen 28p
Mitsuki Sumoto 24p
Makar Ignatov 24p
Andre Torgashev 22p

Substitute:
Joseph Phan 22p
Tomoki Hiwatashi 22p
Luc Economides 22p

Rizzo would be 5th subs with 20p (Roman Savosin is 4th subs with 22p), sad that he bombed his first event, otherwise he could go to JGPF

Already mentioned this in the Qualifiers thread in the JGPF subforum, and I know you saw it, but just so people don't get confused:

Tomoki Hiwatashi would be the 4th alternate because Phan/Economides/Savosin have 22 points and a 2nd place to win the placement tiebreaker.

 

[Chemistry66]

Ladies

JGPF qualifiers:

1) Alexandra Trusova (RUS) - 30 (1st [AUS] + 1st [BLR], 394.01)
2) Sofia Samodurova (RUS) - 30 (1st [CRO] + 1st [ITA], 380.05)
2) Alena Kostornaia (RUS) - 30 (1st [POL] + 2nd [ITA], 390.06)
3) Daria Panenkova (RUS) - 28 (1st [LAT] + 2nd [POL], 382.35)
5) Anastasia Tarakanova (RUS) - 26 (1st [AUT] + 3rd [CRO], 362.25)
6) Rika Kihira (JPN) - 24 (2nd [LAT] + 3rd [ITA], 366.27)
_______________________________________________________________________
R1) Mako Yamashita (JPN) - 24 (2nd [CRO] + 3rd [AUT], 356.79)
R2) Nana Araki (JPN) - 22 (2nd [BLR] + 4th [ITA], 364)
R3) Eunsoo Lim (KOR) - 22 (2nd [AUT] + 4th [POL], 348.92)