Why Mao Asada Has History On Her Side

[AdamFan]

http://auntjoyceicecreamstand.blogspot.com/2009/12/why-mao-asada-has-history-on-her-side.html

So many have counted Mao out. Her strategy is going to bite her in the behind...It's all Yu-Na all the time, she's lost it, Tarasova's ruined her, the programs are an affront to people with eyes...

One would be foolish to count her out. The last five ladies olympic champions all struggled considerably in the lead-up to the Games.

They've all lost before the Olympic Games more than once.

 

[silverlake22]

I don't think anyone is counting Mao out. I'd say she's the favorite for Olympic Silver. Sure when they are both at their very best, I'd say Yuna is better than her, but she's one of the most talented female skaters out there. And Yuna has shown she is not invincible after all. I expect Mao to be on the podium in Vancouver. She is very talented as is her teammate Miki Ando, both have been struggling recently but I don't think that means much. She will come back strong at Vancouver I bet

 

[R.D.]

I think this works in the favor of skaters like Asada and Rochette, the latter of which seems to have hit rock bottom at the GPF. If the pressure of the Japanese shifts over to Ando instead of Asada, things could get interesting- I currently have Ando as the spoiler fave but with additional pressure on her that might not happen. Asada might be free to go out on the attack like 2008 worlds. Or Rochette could be motivated by home advantage and have an SOHL somewhere other than Canada Nats. If we look at worlds 2009 results, the next longshot appears to be none other than....yes, Rachel Flatt! Struggled in China, much better in America.

Then there's always the Euro girls. Always sneaking up on ya.

 

[silverlake22]

I think this works in the favor of skaters like Asada and Rochette, the latter of which seems to have hit rock bottom at the GPF. If the pressure of the Japanese shifts over to Ando instead of Asada, things could get interesting- I currently have Ando as the spoiler fave but with additional pressure on her that might not happen. Asada might be free to go out on the attack like 2008 worlds. Or Rochette could be motivated by home advantage and have an SOHL somewhere other than Canada Nats. If we look at worlds 2009 results, the next longshot appears to be none other than....yes, Rachel Flatt! Struggled in China, much better in America.

Then there's always the Euro girls. Always sneaking up on ya.

I agree! Euro girls really could change everything. A Carolina, Laura, Alena on her top game, or even Elene Ged. or Kiira, could factor into how the top 10 at the Olympics pan out. I think any of the Euro ladies are longshots for a medal, except maybe a clean Carolina, but they could either be below 10th or right behind the medalists. Hard to tell though as most of them fall and double jumps frequently.

Rachael is the best shot of the US ladies. A Mirai or Alissa with a SOHL in the short and free could be spoilers, but the likely hood of that happening at the Olympics is unlikely (especially for Alissa, who seems like she can't complete more than 3-4 clean triples in her free). Ashley always seems to do well but her freeskate scores are always between 100-110. Rachael can get a 115 with a couple mistakes and is capable of a 120 if she hits everything, which for her is quite possible. Her SP is usually right at 60 so 60+120 = 180 which could get her a medal

 

[Tinymavy15]

Well it certainly puts things in perpective. We all know that Mao can win but do the judges? Does Mao?

 

[Nadia01]

Altho her article is compelling (ah the old memories!), I'm not sure how well it applies to the current COP.

If anyone has a ridiculous lead from SP, the game's more or less over. How is anyone going to overcome like 20 pt deficit or whatever?

Torino was interesting b/c so many were marked very close, but if Yuna is on for her SP, I expect her to rake in lots of pts, thanks to her clean jumps, Lvl-4 spirals & spins, Lvl-3 footwork & buttload of GOEs.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Of course, precedents are broken all the time. And made all the time.

 

[evangeline]

Of course, precedents are broken all the time. And made all the time.

Agreed! Caro Kostner for 2010 Olympic gold!

 

[pupitre]

I would hold any positive predictions on Asada before she redeems herself at the Japanese National because she really hit the rock bottom at her last outings in Russia after the mediocre performances at TEB.

A report said that TAT is unlikely to come to Japan for Asada during the Nationals. If that happens, I don't know how much that is going to affect her performance.

 

[bekalc]

I think this works in the favor of skaters like Asada and Rochette, the latter of which seems to have hit rock bottom at the GPF. If the pressure of the Japanese shifts over to Ando instead of Asada, things could get interesting- I currently have Ando as the spoiler fave but with additional pressure on her that might not happen. Asada might be free to go out on the attack like 2008 worlds. Or Rochette could be motivated by home advantage and have an SOHL somewhere other than Canada Nats. If we look at worlds 2009 results, the next longshot appears to be none other than....yes, Rachel Flatt! Struggled in China, much better in America.

Then there's always the Euro girls. Always sneaking up on ya.

I have to disagree about Ando.. She was Japan's top hope at the GPF, and handled that one just fine. I don't think even if Asada is still crumbling there will be the same kind of pressure on Miki that there would be on Mao. Most would probably be like well maybe if Yu-na implodes-you will and others will just hope against hope that Mao has the skates of her life...

I actually think Ando has a really great shot at winning OGM.. She seems like the only top lady right now who doesn't look scared or out of her mind. (That's one thing I noticed about her at GPF). She's also dealt with ridiculous amounts of Olympic pressure before and so I think she knows how to handle it. I get the feeling she feels she has something to prove at the Olympics.

 

[mycelticblessing]

Aunt Joyce does makes some pretty good points. When was the last time the favourite skater going into the Olympics won the OGM in the case of the ladies? Ladies must be the most difficult figure skating discipline to predict. Who would have thought that Arakawa would get gold in Turin?

I don't think most people have counted Mao out. She just had a rough Grand Prix season, which happens to most skaters at some point in their career.

 

[Bennett]

I have to disagree about Ando.. She was Japan's top hope at the GPF, and handled that one just fine. I don't think even if Asada is still crumbling there will be the same kind of pressure on Miki that there would be on Mao. Most would probably be like well maybe if Yu-na implodes-you will and others will just hope against hope that Mao has the skates of her life...

I actually think Ando has a really great shot at winning OGM.. She seems like the only top lady right now who doesn't look scared or out of her mind. (That's one thing I noticed about her at GPF). She's also dealt with ridiculous amounts of Olympic pressure before and so I think she knows how to handle it. I get the feeling she feels she has something to prove at the Olympics.

I agree. Although it takes Yuna's major mistakes for Miki to win OGM, I do agree that she seems among the strongest under pressures. I think Yuna is also extremely strong under pressures. So both two ladies have a great shot.

 

[Jaana]

Aunt Joyce does makes some pretty good points. When was the last time the favourite skater going into the Olympics won the OGM in the case of the ladies? Ladies must be the most difficult figure skating discipline to predict. Who would have thought that Arakawa would get gold in Turin?

Well, I really expected Arakawa to win the OGM in 2006...

I don´t know about favourites going into Olympics, but historically (= since the start of Winter Olympics in 1908) the reigning World champions have mostly won the OGM in ladies discipline out of those 22 Olympics. The exceptions have been really few: Hamill, Poetsch, Witt (1984), Hughes and Arakawa. From these 5 ladies only Witt and Arakawa were not reigning WC medalists, but Arakawa was 2004 WC. In that sense the ladies Olympic competition has been rather predictable, I would say.

So far Lipinski in 1998 was the latest reigning WC to win OGM.

 

[janetfan]

I have to disagree about Ando.. She was Japan's top hope at the GPF, and handled that one just fine. I don't think even if Asada is still crumbling there will be the same kind of pressure on Miki that there would be on Mao. Most would probably be like well maybe if Yu-na implodes-you will and others will just hope against hope that Mao has the skates of her life...

I actually think Ando has a really great shot at winning OGM.. She seems like the only top lady right now who doesn't look scared or out of her mind. (That's one thing I noticed about her at GPF). She's also dealt with ridiculous amounts of Olympic pressure before and so I think she knows how to handle it. I get the feeling she feels she has something to prove at the Olympics.

Yuna left the door wide open for Miki at the GPF and Miki was not able to rise to the occassion. Akiko slated circles around Miki and everyone saw it but the ISU judges and officials.

I like Miki and she seems to be a very nice girl, but I find her programs this season hard to watch - and hope a skater with better posture, positions, extensions and musicality wins the OGM.

Unless Miki can show some spectacular jumps the rest of her skating is not as good as Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Caro, Laura and now I might add Akiko and Sasha should she make it back.

Miki is a fine CoP skater but I find her artistry lacking. She does have star power, so if she skates well ISU will continue to inflate her marks like they did at her three GP events this season.

ETA: I would be happy for Miki if she won an Olympic medal but hope a skater with better all-around skills wins the Gold.

 

[Trewyn]

^^I agree with you on Miki; I find her rather unpleasant to watch; she has very little transitions and her posture isn't good either.

@ Jaana: that's very interesting! I did not know that! Well; it just adds to the point that this is Yu Na's OGM to lose. I personally would like it if Mao came back strong at the Olympics and catches that gold medal if Yu Na thinks once again that she doesn't need a triple flip to win it all.

 

[mycelticblessing]

Well, I really expected Arakawa to win the OGM in 2006...

I don´t know about favourites going into Olympics, but historically (= since the start of Winter Olympics in 1908) the reigning World champions have mostly won the OGM in ladies discipline out of those 22 Olympics. The exceptions have been really few: Hamill, Poetsch, Witt (1984), Hughes and Arakawa. From these 5 ladies only Witt and Arakawa were not reigning WC medalists, but Arakawa was 2004 WC. In that sense the ladies Olympic competition has been rather predictable, I would say.

So far Lipinski in 1998 was the latest reigning WC to win OGM.

I started following after the 2006 Olympics, so my views on the 'favourites' would be retrospective, but judging from some of the reports preceding the Olympics, it would seem like Cohen and Slutskaya were the favourites, followed by Arakawa.

I never did realise how often the reigning world champions won the OGM. Thanks for bringing that up. It seems like my view of figure skating has been largely confined to the past 10 years, where the 'dark horses' seem to win the gold.

 

[silverlake22]

Yuna left the door wide open for Miki at the GPF and Miki was not able to rise to the occassion. Akiko slated circles around Miki and everyone saw it but the ISU judges and officials.

I like Miki and she seems to be a very nice girl, but I find her programs this season hard to watch - and hope a skater with better posture, positions, extensions and musicality wins the OGM.

Unless Miki can show some spectacular jumps the rest of her skating is not as good as Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Caro, Laura and now I might add Akiko and Sasha should she make it back.

Miki is a fine CoP skater but I find her artistry lacking. She does have star power, so if she skates well ISU will continue to inflate her marks like they did at her three GP events this season.

ETA: I would be happy for Miki if she won an Olympic medal but hope a skater with better all-around skills wins the Gold.

Agree with you there, Miki is a great skater, but like Flatt to me she is mostly about the jumps. If she gets her 3lz-3lo and 2a-3t back and deserves to win OGM then I will not be upset. Her other skating skills are fine but when she doesn't include the big technically difficult combinations she does not stand out that much from the others for me. She is very fast on the ice which helps though.

I really hope Yuna just wins OGM. I know some people think Mao is better but I really think Yuna is the total package and one of the best lady skaters of all time. If she completely bombs, she doesn't deserve to win. But if she is conservative like she was at GPF (minus the popped flip in the SP) I think she should still win unless Miki, Mao, or Joannie have the SOHL and hit all their tough jumps and combos. Yuna is simply amazing and if anyone else has seen her live i'm sure you'll agree.

Akiko is wonderful and I'd love for her to medal but I think Miki has a little more polish at this point just from competing for so long. I have never seen Akiko live, but Miki live is very fast and slender on the ice so it makes her appear graceful even though her posture isn't the best.

Sasha has very nice skating except for her jumps, which are puny and not exciting. Unless she lands 7 triples I don't think she deserves to be on the podium at the Olympics just in comparison to how high her competitors all jump.

 

[bekalc]

Originally Posted by janetfan
Yuna left the door wide open for Miki at the GPF and Miki was not able to rise to the occassion. Akiko slated circles around Miki and everyone saw it but the ISU judges and officials.

I like Miki and she seems to be a very nice girl, but I find her programs this season hard to watch - and hope a skater with better posture, positions, extensions and musicality wins the OGM.

Unless Miki can show some spectacular jumps the rest of her skating is not as good as Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Caro, Laura and now I might add Akiko and Sasha should she make it back.

Miki is a fine CoP skater but I find her artistry lacking. She does have star power, so if she skates well ISU will continue to inflate her marks like they did at her three GP events this season.

ETA: I would be happy for Miki if she won an Olympic medal but hope a skater with better all-around skills wins the Gold.

Agree with you there, Miki is a great skater, but like Flatt to

I'm going to disagree with you a bit. While Miki isn't the most artistic skater around. Her basic skating skills are a LOT better than Akiko's and Rachael Flatts. At Worlds 2009 everyone said that the only person who was faster than Miki was Yu-na. Second, it was Ando's decision not to go for the more difficult stuff at GPF. I don't know why but that was on purpose on her part. I heard in practice she was doing 3lutz/3toes and that may be what she does instead of 3lutz/3loops...

 

[janetfan]

I'm going to disagree with you a bit. While Miki isn't the most artistic skater around. Her basic skating skills are a LOT better than Akiko's and Rachael Flatts. At Worlds 2009 everyone said that the only person who was faster than Miki was Yu-na. Second, it was Ando's decision not to go for the more difficult stuff at GPF. I don't know why but that was on purpose on her part. I heard in practice she was doing 3lutz/3toes and that may be what she does instead of 3lutz/3loops...

Thanks - and I wonder why Miki did NOT try and win a title that was within her reach with a good skate?

It is funny because Miki is a skater I like and sometimes I do enjoy her skating.
But Miki could skate twice as fast as Sasha or Mao and I would always prefer their skating more. It is subjective and in my case I prefer the more artistic and poetic skaters.

Miki has a good chance to medal and even though I dislike both her programs I wish her luck. I don't think she will need it as ISU has been overmarking her all year.

 

[bekalc]

Thanks - and I wonder why Miki did NOT try and win a title that was within her reach with a good skate?

It is funny because Miki is a skater I like and sometimes I do enjoy her skating.
But Miki could skate twice as fast as Sasha or Mao and I would always prefer their skating more. It is subjective and in my case I prefer the more artistic and poetic skaters.

Miki has a good chance to medal and even though I dislike both her programs I wish her luck. I don't think she will need it as ISU has been overmarking her all year.

I prefer the artistic and poetic skaters as well. And I think that if Asada, Kim, Rochette, Kostner were to all deliver their absolute best, Ando would be off the Olympic podium. But the facts are how likely are all of these skaters to actually deliver? Kostner is a head case of epic proportions, Rochette looks like she's reverting to her old form and has never been the greastest of competitors herself. And Asada seems all over the place. Even Kim looks like the pressure is getting to her.

As for Ando, I was just trying to point out that her basic skating puts her at another league than lets say a Rachael Flatt. And Akiko is no Sasha or Mao.

As for Ando's PCS, Ando gets decent PCS for her strong basic skating, and for the fact that she's a world champion and the reigning world bronze medalist. She's not the most artistic skater in the world, but at her best she can connect to a crowd. I think that her free program this year is not something I'm in love with but I think that it suits her. And I think that if she were to revert back to Cup of Russia's costume, she could potentially look stunning out there. (That was a stunning costume/look for her)

Ando's explosive jumps, and they were explosive at GPF even if she wasn't going for the big tricks, give her skating a wow factor as well. I know my mom was sitting there going amazing-at Ando's jumps.