Will Mao Asada Make It to the 2018 Games?

[largeman]

This is a question from someone who only watched in Olympic years between 2007-2009 and 2011-2013 (busy with high school and college and things, and while I've watched lots of great stuff, missed some of the nitty gritty). At what point did Mao's 3-3s get so unreliable? Was it because of greater attention to URs or because she lost technique over time?

Around 2008-2009. She started struggling with her jumps and didn't include that combination for a few years. She only brought it back in the LP in 2013.

Here's what I found from digging around the old protocols a bit (I included Japanese Nationals):

2006-07 Season:
Layout: 3F+3Lo in SP, 3F+3Lo in FS
Ratified 3F+3Lo: 7
All of her completed 3F+3Lo combos this season (excluding pops) were ratified and got positive GOEs
Best one: 2006 SA: https://youtu.be/ZmyUwtmch9w?t=4m23s

2007-08 Season:
Layout: 3F+3Lo in SP, 3F+3T and 3F+3Lo in FS (the 3F+3T was first added at 2007 GPF)
Ratified 3F+3Lo: 7
Ratified 3F+3T: 3
Best one: 2008 Worlds SP https://youtu.be/uz-AktwtDfs?t=3m27s

2008-09 Season:
Layout: 3F+3Lo in SP, no triple-triple in FS
Ratified 3F+3Lo: 1
She had trouble with the 3F+3Lo all season but finally landed it successfully at Worlds. It would be the last time she did the 3F+3Lo before bringing it back at the 2013 4CCs. At the 2009 World Team Trophy, she put 3A+2T in the SP for the first time to replace the triple-triple.
Best one (and the only one): 2009 Worlds https://youtu.be/Beopuz9T8WE?t=11m32s

Detailed scores:
2006-07 Season:
2006 SA: SP 3F+3Lo 10.50 +1.20 = 11.70
2006 NHK: SP 3F+3Lo 10.50 +0.80 = 11.30; FS 3F+3Lo 10.50 +0.60 = 11.10
2006 GPF: SP 3F+3Lo 10.50 +0.80 = 11.30
2006 Nationals: SP 3F+3Lo 10.50 +1.80 = 12.30; FS 3F+3Lo 10.50 +1.40 = 11.90
2007 Worlds: SP 3F+1Lo 6.00 -3.00 = 3.00; FS 3F+3Lo 10.50 +0.43 = 10.93

2007-08 Season:
2007 SC: SP 3F+3Lo< 7.00 -2.40 = 4.60; FS 3F+3Lo< 7.00 -0.80 = 6.20
2007 TEB: SP 3F+1Lo 6.00 -3.00 = 3.00; FS 3F+3Lo 10.50 -0.20 = 10.30
2007 GPF: SP 3F+3Lo 10.50 -2.80 = 7.70; FS 3F+3T 9.50 -0.60 = 8.90; FS 3F+3Lo 11.55 x +1.20 = 12.75
2007 Nationals: SP 3F+3Lo 10.50 +1.80 = 12.30; FS 3F+3T 9.50 -0.20 = 9.30; FS 3F+3Lo 11.55 x +1.20 = 12.75
2008 4CC: SP 3F+3Lo< 7.00 -1.29 = 5.71; SP 3F+3T< 6.80 -1.29 = 5.51; FS 3F+3Lo 11.55 x +0.86 = 12.41
2008 WC: SP 3F+3Lo 10.50 +1.57 = 12.07; FS 3F+3T 9.50 +1.43 = 10.93; FS 3F+3Lo< 7.70x -1.00 = 6.70

2008-09 Season:
2008 TEB: SP 3F+1Lo 6.00 -3.00 = 3.00
2008 NHK: SP 3F+3Lo< 7.00 -1.00 = 6.00
2008 GPF: SP 3F+3Lo< 7.00 -1.80 = 5.20
2008 Nationals: SP 3F+2Lo< 6.00 -3.00 = 3.00
2009 4CC: SP 3F+3Lo< 7.00 -1.60 = 5.40
2009 Worlds: SP 3F+3Lo 10.50 +0.80 = 11.30

AND FINALLY... the beauty from this season: 2015 NHK https://youtu.be/5bjevstvLAs?t=4m11s
10.40 +0.70 = 11.10

 

[tulosai]

Mao could do two 2A-3T combos and win almost every event. In the SP she'd probably need to attempt some 3-3 though.

I don't think Mao will ever do this since as others have said she is committed to the 3A, but I have to admit it's an interesting idea. To win she'd usually probably need a 3-3 inn the short, you're right, but actually at most events I'm not even sure she would need that to podium...

 

[Sam L]

I think I read an interview where she said that she can still skate so why not still skate? Pyeongchang is less than 2 years away now. 2 years can be a long time but I really do think that Mao will be there (on her own merits) despite a strong Japanese team.

 

[nolangoh]

I must say I am really overjoyed when I hear Mao is going to continue to PyeongChang. She missed Torino, thus PyeongChang will be hers.

 

[nolangoh]

Plus I don't have doubt in her technique, her jumps look so much stronger than before. Her 3F+3Lo and 2A+3T combo look really strong at Boston, and her 3F+2Lo+2Lo is so solid now. She can really do it.

The only problem now is actually the judging. Will the judges be unreasonably harsh on her and overlook the others and lowball her PCS? That is the question.

 

[Skater Boy]

Her other jumps are fine, it's just the constant nitpicking from the judges and conservative goe that's keeping her down, she is doing a layout that should keep her at the top at all times, when done relatively clean, but i get the impression that the judges just don't care if the skater is doing a 3A vs. 2A an 3f-3lo vs. 3t-3t. Thankfully Mao said she will pay more attention and work harder on her difficult combo's to avoid any doubt in the future. because it seems like if there is the slightest doubt on her difficult combos/jumps she doesn't get the benefit of the doubt :disapp:

I think we can say that about a lot of skaters though to be fair. And it i has been evident she has struggled with edges and URs as well as consistency. Iknow she has been compared to Yuna often but she sadly doesn't have the consistency or medals to compete. Still I think she is probably the best skater right now if she could go clean because right now there are so many good Japanese, Russian and American ladies. I do thing the JSF will hold her in high esteem for 2018 but her name will not hold her up as we saw this year. Even her pcs have dropped as they should in the sp this year at least. I appreciate she tried somethign different but i think fell short.

 

[miki88]

I think we can say that about a lot of skaters though to be fair. And it i has been evident she has struggled with edges and URs as well as consistency. Iknow she has been compared to Yuna often but she sadly doesn't have the consistency or medals to compete. Still I think she is probably the best skater right now if she could go clean because right now there are so many good Japanese, Russian and American ladies. I do thing the JSF will hold her in high esteem for 2018 but her name will not hold her up as we saw this year. Even her pcs have dropped as they should in the sp this year at least. I appreciate she tried somethign different but i think fell short.

Why are you bringing up Yuna in this thread? Whether Mao makes it to 2018 or not has nothing to do with the past imo.

Anyways, Mao has always been inconsistent. That is true, but despite that and arguably strict judging that she received throughout her career, she won three Worlds, several GPF, Olympics silver, and delivered what many believed was the best LP at Sochi. Not to mention Mao suffered personal setbacks during this time that took a lot out of her mentally. She has had a career of highs and lows, yet still managed a overall competitive record that only ranks second to Kim in her era.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

This proves my point that Mao is still competitive with the an error on the triple axels. But the problem is her other jumps.

The 3A is probably very taxing on her energy level, so if she can get as many points on a 2A as she can for a < 3A maybe she will have more energy to complete the easier jumps later in the program. Plus, if she knows that she was close to < on the 3A it may weigh on her psyche and add more pressure for the other jumps later in the performance. I just don't get how, if your goal is to win in 2018, you aren't constructing your jump layout to have good odds of delivering a perfect skate.

 

[noskates]

I watched Mao land 3A after 3A in several practices at Worlds. I think the nit picking is coming more from the fans than the judges. Had she not fallen on that 3A in the short the outcome would have been much different. She is still the class of the ladies world-wide and makes the baby Russians look like juniors.

 

[[email protected]]

Why are you bringing up Yuna in this thread? Whether Mao makes it to 2018 or not has nothing to do with the past imo.

She is still the class of the ladies world-wide and makes the baby Russians look like juniors.

Why are you bringing the Russians in this thread? Whether Mao makes it to 2018 or not has nothing to do with the Russians who will be 18 - 21 then - definitely not babies.

 

[miki88]

Why are you bringing the Russians in this thread? Whether Mao makes it to 2018 or not has nothing to do with the Russians who will be 18 - 21 then - definitely not babies.

Why are you quoting me to reply to someone else's post?

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Why are you quoting me to reply to someone else's post?

Maybe it was an oopsy

 

[[email protected]]

Just found the flow of words nice in case it was copyrighted.

 

[mary01]

I think we can say that about a lot of skaters though to be fair. And it i has been evident she has struggled with edges and URs as well as consistency. Iknow she has been compared to Yuna often but she sadly doesn't have the consistency or medals to compete. Still I think she is probably the best skater right now if she could go clean because right now there are so many good Japanese, Russian and American ladies. I do thing the JSF will hold her in high esteem for 2018 but her name will not hold her up as we saw this year. Even her pcs have dropped as they should in the sp this year at least. I appreciate she tried somethign different but i think fell short.

Right now I can't figure out if i think you underestimate her or just don't like her or don't want her succes to continue. Mao has everything to keep competing and winning everything too, and when I say everything I mean it in every sense, she has all kinds of jumps in her arsenal and every single kind of jump was done in competition this season cleanly atleast once, she has a staminia only few woman could dream of, to land soo many jumps and combo's during a 4 minutes program takes alot of strength and staminia even for men and she has time and time again pulled it, you would think that after doing so many difficult jumps and combo's her speed would decrease during her performance or that her spins and steps wouldn't receive the levels but that never happens with her, she consistently receives level 4 on all her elements and delivers a thrilling stepsequence, Mao does sooo much that is taken for granted, because we are so used to seeing it from her that we now simply expect it of her, she adds soo much to the sport, it's such a shame that they just ignore all the amazing things she delivers.
ofcourse you can decide to try to downplay her accomplishment by saying "she doesn't have medals" well in fact she has more medals then any other skater currently competing, and in fact even with kims consistency she didn't win as much as Mao has, so please Mao doesn't lack medals lol, she has more medals then any of her current and past competitors. I would also like to add that Mao has showed her longivity and competitiveness in the sport only few could compare too, hers even more impressive because she from the beginning till now didn't water down her content and take the easy route, she instead kept upgrading her technical content, in every sense, kept her 3A, 3f-3lo, brought back the 2a-3t, reworked the 3lz and get it ratified with the right edge AGAIN, kept the biellman and other extremely difficult Spinpositions that are really hard on a skaters body etc. I mean how can a person not appreciate all she has done and keeps doing, and how can a person not get sad when such a hardworking, and extremely talented skater doesn't get fully rewarded for everything she has done, is beyond me!

 

[[email protected]]

May be just no luck. If she skated SP in Sochi the way she did it in Saitama and just kept the quality of her Sochi FP I am sure she would have won the gold and we would not have so much drama later on (for better or worse). But then she would not have stayed till now and we would not have the pleasure to see her compete. I think she will be in the team if she is in the good health. She is a joker - she always has a chance to win. We saw that Satoko so far is not like that. Even with 2 clean skates she will be stuck around 210 (not enough these days) unless she creates something very new. Other Japanese are just nowhere near now and will hardly be by 2018.

 

[LiamForeman]

It's frustrating watching Mao skate, if only just to see her get slammed with URs that are impossible to see. I get that after the 2002 Olympic champion the ISU started clamping down on URs, but Hughes's URs were egregious and no one wants to see jumps like that win anything every again. Mao seems to have a good outlook and mindset and I hope she improves the areas she needs to.

 

[Mathman]

Even with 2 clean skates she will be stuck around 210 (not enough these days)...

It's hard to say what scores the ISU will pull out of its bag of tricks. 210 would have won Skate America (beating Medvedeva, Gold and Miyahara), Skate Canada (beating Wagner and Tuktamysheva) Cup of China (beating…um…Asada, Radionova and Pogorilaya), and NHK (beating Miyahara), while losing Rostelecom Cup by only one point to Radiaonova and beating Medvedeva fpr silver. 210 would have got silver at the Grand Prix Final ahead of Miyahara, Radionova, Wagner and Gold.

Even at Worlds, 210 would have been within striking distance of silver, while at 2015 worlds 210 would have lost to Tuktamysheva by only 36/100 of a point.

Maybe the ISU will be determined to serve up a new world record at the 2016 Olympics, but I don't think anyone needs to abandon hope yet watching the 220s flash by.

 

[ioanna]

We saw that Satoko so far is not like that. Even with 2 clean skates she will be stuck around 210 (not enough these days) unless she creates something very new.

Well her personal best is 214. How is that not good enough these days? She made the podium at every single competition she's been at, with the exception of Worlds. The top ladies are all scoring in the 210s right now, with the exception of Evgenia Medvedeva. It's incredible how people are so quick to write her off and most importantly insinuating that she's some kind of cheater who will never improve because her "inferior" technique works just well for her (if it did she would have been on the podium at Worlds). Let's not forget she is only 18 and already a 2-time National Champion, World Silver Medalist and GPF Silver Medalist.

I would like to be able to read threads where people can support their favorite skaters without feeling the need to throw venom at others :agree:

 

[anyanka]

I hope Mao makes it to 2018. She is a champion for the ages and the sport needs her perfect balance of artistry and technical prowess. Plus I want to see her WIN that OGM d@mnit!!

 

[anyanka]

My feeling is that Mao has already been on a farewell tour, taking her bows and waving to fans. I would think this last Worlds will give her much to mull over; in one way retiring also brings to an end a chapter of her relationship with her mother. Finality might have special meaning for her. I expect plenty of tears when it finally happens.

including from me

:crying: