Will the 2010 U.S. ladies Olympic team be...

[bekalc]

You are comparing the future with the present. That's ok for you but not for me.

You seem to be saying that Sarah Hughes was theBEST skater, not only that night she won the Olys, but her entire career. Am I correct?

Where in the heck did I mention Sarah Hughes. First of all I'm not arguing because Miki, Mao and Yu-na beat Kimmie once that it makes them better skaters. 1. Miki beat Kimmie three times this season (maybe more at some cheesefeest) 2. Yes Kimmie beat Mao at Skate America, but it took a meltdown for this to happen. However, as Juniors Mao never lost to Kimmie, and I believe they both met in Paris in 2004, and Mao won then too. 3. In the four times Yu-na and Kimmie have competed against each other, Yu-na has never once lost to Kimmie. So that's a little bit more than one night.

Your not really paying attention to the point I was making... I'm basically saying that Mirai and Caroline both have technical issues with their jumping, as such I'm not necessarily willing to lay bets on either one of them.

The last two juniors were big splashes were Mao and Yu-na. But the difference between Mao and Yu-na and Mirai and Caroline, is that at their age Mao and Yu-na had stronger jumping technique.
This is especially the case with Yu-na Kim. She may not have a triple axel but she has phenomal technique jumping wise.


Arakawa didn't make the Grand Prix finals because 1. She had the same assignments as Mao Asada. However, since Mao Asada was unable to compete in the Olympics that didn't matter much.
2. Sasha Cohen and Irina both beat Arakawa at Cup of China and Trophey Bombard too, but both girls had meltdowns at the Olympics. (Irina may have only fallen once but she was a mess and actually did less triples than Sasha)
3. Arakawa changed some things 1. Coaches 2. programs, and I'm assuming training habits. Plus, it was not like Arakawa was incapable of beating both girls when she was at her best.

Yes, there were skaters worse than Kimmie who made the Finals, but the reason Kimmie didn't make the finals was because she had to skate against Miki and Yu-na and wasn't able to beat both girls. (Miki twice) So I think how Kimmie didn't make the finals, is a good indicator of the point I was making that Miki, Mao and Yu-na are better skaters than Kimmie. I'm wondering if someone really wants to argue that they aren't better skaters?

As for Emily Hughes I don't think she has a shot at making the Olympic team. Yes, she's number two but there is going to be a lot of new skaters coming up Wagner, Nagasu, Zhang, Flatt, I'd be shocked if Emily's even on the podium this year at Nationals.

 

[slutskayafan21]

No, I'm talking about the US Nats ONLY. It's safe to say Hughes is a solid 2nd here in this country, topped only by Meissner. Heck, had she not fallen she might have even pulled off the upset. Guess who was 3rd? Someone who lucked out with the performance of her life.

The only reason she is currently a solid 2nd in the country is that Zhang and Nagasu and Wagner are not there yet, and Flatt was a newbie this past year. She wont stay there for long. That is a pretty safe bet. A skater who doesnt have the slightest prayer of ever winning a World medal never stays ranked that high among U.S women for long. Just doesnt happen.

 

[R.D.]

The only reason she is currently a solid 2nd in the country is that Zhang and Nagasu and Wagner are not there yet, and Flatt was a newbie this past year. She wont stay there for long. That is a pretty safe bet. A skater who doesnt have the slightest prayer of ever winning a World medal never stays ranked that high among U.S women for long. Just doesnt happen.

Very daring statement. We'll see next year, now, won't we?

I have my personal doubts about Hughes because of the situation she'll be in, having to split her time between a full-time college schedule and skating. Something is going to get shafted and I think we can guess which one it's going to be.

btw...what do you say about Jenny Kirk, who was 3rd all those years...and never placed above 17th or so at Worlds? Even Csizny did better than that on her first trip (15th).

 

[bekalc]

Very daring statement. We'll see next year, now, won't we?

I have my personal doubts about Hughes because of the situation she'll be in, having to split her time between a full-time college schedule and skating. Something is going to get shafted and I think we can guess which one it's going to be.

btw...what do you say about Jenny Kirk, who was 3rd all those years...and never placed above 17th or so at Worlds? Even Csizny did better than that on her first trip (15th).

As soon as Meissner came up, Jenny went bybye, until then there was no one else.

 

[R.D.]

Remember that Jenny retired. I think the year Meissner came on the scene, Jenny was 4th and got the ticket to worlds cause Kim was too young. It's sad for Jenny, though, because she could have had a legitimate shot at the 2006 Olympic team, but judging from her experiences it probably wouldn't have meant much to her...

 

[bekalc]

Remember that Jenny retired. I think the year Meissner came on the scene, Jenny was 4th and got the ticket to worlds cause Kim was too young. It's sad for Jenny, though, because she could have had a legitimate shot at the 2006 Olympic team, but judging from her experiences it probably wouldn't have meant much to her...

Jenny wasn't going to make that team, no matter if she competed or not. And by placing Meissner above her a year earlier, the judges were basically sending that message. Honestly, I doubt we will see Kimmie, Hughes, and Czisny all at worlds this coming year. I wouldn't be surprised if Wagner gets in there.

 

[R.D.]

Jenny wasn't going to make that team, no matter if she competed or not. And by placing Meissner above her a year later, the judges were basically sending a message.

perhaps, but what about Emily? She was the one who took Kwan's ticket (Meissner and Cohen were confirmed already). It would have been Kirk and Hughes, not Meissner.

But in the end, I think I agree...(that is, that the team would have been the same)

 

[gkelly]

Honestly, I doubt we will see Kimmie, Hughes, and Czisny all at worlds this coming year. I wouldn't be surprised if Wagner gets in there.

Well, Flatt, Zhang, and Nagasu cannot go to Worlds in 2008, even if they're 1, 2, and 3 at Nationals in some order. So who do you expect will be joining Wagner in Sweden?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Becalk-

Where in the heck did I mention Sarah Hughes

I mentioned Sara Hughes as an example of how you take a competition and draw your conclusions from them.

1. Miki beat Kimmie three times this season (maybe more at some cheesefeest) 2. Yes Kimmie beat Mao at Skate America, but it took a meltdown for this to happen. However, as Juniors Mao never lost to Kimmie, and I believe they both met in Paris in 2004, and Mao won then too. 3. In the four times Yu-na and Kimmie have competed against each other, Yu-na has never once lost to Kimmie. So that's a little bit more than one night.

Ahhh, your basing your predictions on how many times one skater beats another, and in the case of the 2006 World Title means little in 2007. That 2006 year was not the best for Miki. Was it? Sad, bebacuse Miki did try to win that.

Your not really paying attention to the point I was making... I'm basically saying that Mirai and Caroline both have technical issues with their jumping, as such I'm not necessarily willing to lay bets on either one of them.

I am trying to pay attention to what you are saying but it's not easy. You seem to base your betting prowess with what happened in 2007 and project that for the new season without checking out the upcoming season of events. Am I correct? If so?, that's ok. I guess it's just that I would prefer you to use the IMO or 'in my opinion' so I don't have to think it's just another poster with rash comments. However, you may continue with your predictions for 2010 Ladies and at the same time, continue to post that the US ladies will never beat the Asian ladies. That is your perogative. You may be correct. We'll see how things go this season.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Jenny wasn't going to make that team, no matter if she competed or not. And by placing Meissner above her a year earlier, the judges were basically sending that message. Honestly, I doubt we will see Kimmie, Hughes, and Czisny all at worlds this coming year. I wouldn't be surprised if Wagner gets in there.

Another weird prediction! Can you name the three (you seem to know more than anyone else) who will be on the 2008 World Team from the US?

Caution: You can not name Nagasu (an underage junior) and Zhang (not age eligible)

So your accurate prediction may be Wagner, but who are the other two?

Joe

 

[bekalc]

Another weird prediction! Can you name the three (you seem to know more than anyone else) who will be on the 2008 World Team from the US?

Caution: You can not name Nagasu (an underage junior) and Zhang (not age eligible)

So your accurate prediction may be Wagner, but who are the other two?

Joe

Sigh, I'm quite frankly getting annoyed here right now. Did I say that the American girls will never beat the Asian ladies. Of course their may be a competition or two where this will happen, everyone has their off nights.

But I don't think my point that Mao, Yu-na and Miki are better skaters is stupid. Mao and Yu-na are both better jumpers than Kimmie, their triple/triples are more consistent as well.
Miki is a better jumper as well. In Mao and Yu-na's case, they are also better artistically than Kimmie.. Now things could change and Kimmie could improve but that's assuming the other girls don't improve as well. Honestly it would be like people getting mad if I said that Michelle Kwan is better than Angela..

As for Mirai and Caroline, I do think they could eventually challenge Mao and Yu-na but I'm nervous about them because of the technical issues with their jumps. Mirai has some issues with underrotation, and Caroline has some wonky technique. Joesitz, I'm waiting for you to address this legitimate point I have made.

As for the team, I said that Hughes, Meissner and Czisny won't be the team. If I thought that Caroline and Mirai were age available, don't you think I'd suggest them being on the team, since so far they have consistently beaten Wagner. I'm assuming the team will be Meissner, Wagner, and ? I would normally say Hughes, but i have no idea what her skating will be like, now that she's attending Harvard. It would be better though if it was Hughes over Czisny because Czisny is inconsistent and I do not trust her to help the USA get 3 spots.

I also want to point out that this thread is about predictions. WE are predicting who will make the US Olympic team, and since it's about predictions we are basically announcing who will be better 3 years from now. Personaly, if I'm going to judge who will be better three years from now, than I can only make an educated guess based on past results. I'm sorry if the fact that the Asian girls right now are better than Americans upsets people. But honestly, I think it would take a lot of bias, to not say that Mao, Yu-na and Miki are the best skaters in the world.

 

[Mathman]

It does help to actually read what a poster writes before responding, LOL. Bekalc did not say that NONE of {Meissner, Hughes, Czisny} will make the 2008 world team, just that he/she did not expect ALL THREE to do so.

(Personally, I say Go Alissa!)

 

[bekalc]

It does help to actually read what a poster writes before responding, LOL. Bekalc did not say that NONE of {Meissner, Hughes, Czisny} will make the 2008 world team, just that he/she did not expect ALL THREE to do so.

(Personally, I say Go Alissa!)

Thank you. I was saying that Wagner would replace either Hughes or Czisny. Alissa is a lovely skater but she's not consistent, and if she's not consistent by now, I doubt she will ever get consistent. So, I'd rather not see her on the team, because I don't trust her to help us get 3 spots.

 

[Mathman]

About Meissner's chances of making the world podium against the Big Three this season, IMHO Ando is the most vulnerable. Miki has given great performances but also awful ones. She has a cronic shoulder problem which could flare up at any time. Although she is capable of a 190 point competition, her skating also has some flaws that are unlikely to be fixed, such as weak position and insecurity on her spirals.

Kimmie, on the other hand, has every reason to hope for a big improvement over last year. We may not see a triple Axel from her again, but if she gets her technical consistency down so that she nails those triple-triples every time out, she will be right there in the mix.

Edited to add: I think it is not an accident that Skate America selected Ando to come in and skate against Meissner, rather than Asada or Kim.

 

[bekalc]

About Meissner's chances of making the world podium against the Big Three this season, IMHO Ando is the most vulnerable. Miki has given great performances but also awful ones. She has a cronic shoulder problem which could flare up at any time. Although she is capable of a 190 point competition, her skating also has some flaws that are unlikely to be fixed, such as weak position and insecurity on her spirals.

Kimmie, on the other hand, has every reason to hope for a big improvement over last year. We may not see a triple Axel from her again, but if she gets her technical consistency down so that she nails those triple-triples every time out, she will be right there in the mix.

I agree Miki is the most vulernable. However unless Kimmie improves her artistry, I don't see her beating the other two unless they make mistakes, which well they are clearly prone to doing. However, I wonder if Mao and Yu-na's mistakes are more do to just getting use to the Seniors, and well Yu-na Kim's injury issues. I like Mao a lot but I'm not so sure about her either. I wonder if the triple axel will always remain? And without the triple axel, Mao has some jump issues of her own (no salchow, toe axel etc).

Yes, I know Yu-na doesn't do the loop. But, she has done the loop as a junior in competition. With Yu-na the Loop is the first jump to go if she's not in her best phsyical condition. I've read some reports that the loop will be back this year.. Jumping technique wise though Yu-na is the one I'm most comfortable with.


There is also Caroline Kostner, but Caro is so inconsistent.. A part of me feels that if she cannot be consistent by now,she probably never will be.

 

[Mathman]

But then again, inconsistency cuts both ways. If an "inconsistent" skater picks just the right moment for an all-time best, it doesn't matter so much that her last performance was a dud. I do think that Kostner has the potential to pull everything together, like she did at Europeans, and come away with the prize.

Unfortunately, Alissa is not so much inconsistent from one event to another, but rather from one jump to another in the same performance. You could even say that she is dreadfully consistent in that every time out she can be counted on to hit about half of her jump attempts. (But she's such a sweetheart. )

 

[Mathman]

I don't think making the GPF is indicative of how good a skater is or his/her rank in the World. Sometimes skaters get lucky in their assignments, sometimes they don't.

True enough, but sometimes skaters get lucky or unlucky at Worlds, too. Or at the Olympics.

 

[bekalc]

But then again, inconsistency cuts both ways. If an "inconsistent" skater picks just the right moment for an all-time best, it doesn't matter so much that her last performance was a dud. I do think that Kostner has the potential to pull everything together, like she did at Europeans, and come away with the prize.

Unfortunately, Alissa is not so much inconsistent from one event to another, but rather from one jump to another in the same performance. You could even say that she is dreadfully consistent in that every time out she can be counted on to hit about half of her jump attempts. (But she's such a sweetheart. )

Yes, but even at Europeans Kostner made some mistakes... Plus, I'm not sure at her best Kostner is better than Mao or Yu-na. Besides Czisny has had some decent skates. Skate America/Skate Canada. She had a decent long at Skate Canada last year too, and she had a good long at Nationals. She's just inconsistent.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

If I had to pick NOW, I would pick YuNa. especially if we are talking about 'artistry'. Mao continues to be the little girl skater when in comes to PCS. Miki, I am not just a big fan of since the days of warning that she had a quad.

But hey! I don't predict NOW. I wait to see what is going on NOW. GPs will tell me more than Nats. Ladies wll be easy to predict Worlds; Men will be difficult even after watching GPs.

Joe

 

[feraina]

Mao continues to be the little girl skater when in comes to PCS.

Nevertheless, she has wonderful basic skating skills, nice deep edges, good speed and fluidity, and so racks up those high PCS's.

On an unrelated note, I just saw on youtube a video of Caroline "skating to" So Deep is the Night. It's actually not a bad interpretation at all. It's quite funny.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=PdSjRjTUzaM