Will There Be Any Suspense for the GOLD?

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Picking up on Flojoe's comment in The Edge, what does anyone think that there will be suspense in all the Divisions for the Gold medal?

For me, it is only in Pairs and only if S&Z skate.

Joe

 

[rain]

No, I don't think there's a whole lot of suspense for the gold in many of the disciplines. The other podium spots, on the other hand.....
Ladies, actually, I think will be suspenseful. And pairs - should S/Z go, will hold some suspense. If not, T/M are virtual shoe-ins. Dance, well, you know how dance goes and there has been no indication N/K won't be handed the gold on a platter. They may keep one of the other teams fairly close to them in scoring so it looks like a real competition, but IMO it will be all for show. In men's, Plushenko is far and away the most consistent jumper and the judges seem uninterested in marking him down for the things he doesn't do well - eg. choreography. He would have to have a huge meltdown and someone else an inspired skate - not impossible, but highly unlikely.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Slutskaya has shown enough vurnerability I think the womens now has some drama. I still think Irina will win, but Sasha atleast has a fighting chance going in now. If Irina skates clean though, even with no 3/3, it will be hers. I cant imagine Shen/Zhou showing up in the kind of shape to threaten Totmianina/
Marinin, so no drama in the pairs. I do think the dance has more drama than before, Navka/Kostomarov were vurnerable at Europeans. The mens no drama for the gold either. So 2 of the 4 have some drama now IMO.

 

[Vash01]

IMO Belbin-Agosto can challenge N&K for the gold, but most probably N&K will win.

Irina - it depends on how she handles the Olympic pressure. Her health is always a question mark. Sasha has a very realistic chance of winning.

Pairs- If S&Z are back- and we don't know what shape they are in- they can threaten for the gold. They have been skating since late Nov. That's 2- 2.5 months. That is enough to feel comfortable with the programs. I do believe that Zhang & Zhang can also challenge T&M , particularly if T&M make a mistake.

Men: Plushenko is obviously a heavy favorite going in. However, he too will have to handle that pressure. If he cannot, there are plenty of other men waiting in the wings, including the current world champion.

I think there is suspense in every discipline.

Vash

 

[R.D.]

Of course I'm sticking to the ladies discipline. That said- I really think Irina is the heavy favorite to win this, and will do so. I just don't think Cohen is strong enough to really lay it down. She's been very cautious out there. She has the "point capacity" to win, but I just don't think she can execute it. The Japanese ladies can play spoiler, but often times don't bring it forward in the big events. I think either one of them (any one) will do really well and the rest OK, or it'll be like 05 Worlds all over again. Carolina- the hometown favorite- I consider a "dark horse", but performing in the Olympics at home is more pressure than she's ever dealt with. And Elena S.- possible spoiler for podium...possible being the key word.

 

[nicole_l]

Slutskaya has shown enough vurnerability I think the womens now has some drama.

I agree. If she falters it could go to Sasha, Shizuka, or Michelle with the skate of her life. I don't think it's Irina's to lose. She'll have to bring her best.

Is there any news on S&Z? I would love to see them in Turino.

 

[dorispulaski]

About a week ago, a tape was released of S&Z skating their short program. The issue is Hongbo's jumps, and apparently his 2A is fine now, and his 3T is coming along. So they may do well!

The Zhang's have huge technical content compared to T&M, outscoring everyone in that area this year. And at Chinese Nationals, they landed a throw 4 salchow. They haven't attempted it internationally this year, but I expect to see it at Olympics. Between the 4STh and the 2A3T combination, they may, if they land them, rack up huge points. Plus they have the best 3Tw and 2Tw out there, and wonderful lifts. It is possible they will rack up enough technical points that it isn't feasible to give the competition to T&M on PCS alone. (and their spins and steps are respectable, too, if not outstanding).

T&M have fair to middling technical content performed well. It's worth noting that at TEB, M&B had better tech than they. It doesn't take much of a slip for T&M to be in trouble. Their lifts have always been a bit flaky (which is why they had that fall last year), their twists a bit chest crashy. They have a lovely 3T2T and the most consistent 3S.

But they are not overwhelming the best pair out there in the sense that Plushy is overwhelming the best man.

 

[Frau Muller]

I believe that the lone Gold-medal possible surprise for North America will be in the dance. I've always seen B/A as our biggest hope for figure-skating gold in Torino & I cited that in my letter to my senators, asking for their vote on the bill. I still feel the same -- they are IT for the USA in figure skating.

Sasha is lovely & hits wonderful positions & CAN do the jumps cleanly every now & then. However, Sasha lacks speed, coverage of ice & general energy that Irina (& Kostner & many others) have in droves. It's hard to see in TV but Sasha has a lethargic quality, compared to many other top female skaters. Perkiness and dynamism count -- Irina has it in the bag unless she bombs her tech elements.

 

[purplecat]

I think if any of the top favorites have problems in the short (or in the case of dance, in the OD or even the CD) there will be suspense for the free skates/dance. If the favorite blows away the competition in the short/OD, etc. then there will be little suspense as to who will win.

 

[Tonichelle]

well, I may be the only one, but I think Mens will be suspenseful... I don't see Evgeny just taking over and owning the event... he certainly didn't in 02 and he wasn't fighting multiple injuries and all that comes with that...

Ladies will be made up to look suspenseful by the US media... Michelle, should she go, will be touted as one to go for Gold and I just don't see that at ALL but I don't see Irina having two clean skates either... again for the same reason as Evgeny... health, and the fact that she couldn't keep nerves in check last time (one misstep might not be big for many, but for Irina who is normally so solid...)

I think Dance will be exciting... though I think N/K have that locked...

 

[dlkksk8fan]

Will There Be Any Suspense for the GOLD? I don't think so. The Russians will sweep the gold medals.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I think Plushenko is safe to win even with mistakes. Slutskaya I predict will win if she skates cleanly, even if it is a watered down program with no 3/3s, if she has a few stumbles, somebody else will still have to skate perfectly and inspired to beat her(Cohen or Arakawa most likely). I cant imagine Shen/Zhou getting through a long program strongly, even if he does some jumps in practice, I could see them getting bronze maybe but that is it, I also do think the judges plan to PCS Totmianina/Marinin to gold and I doubt Zhang/Zhang would risk losing a medal by trying the quad throw for a chance at the gold. Nakva/Kostomarov seem to be more shaky now after their performances at Russian Nationals and Europeans. Any one of Grushina/Goncharov, Belbin/Agosto, and Dubreuil/Lauzon might steal the gold from them if they dont get their act together. Their moderate scores at Europeans were a message from the judges they wont be coronated with the gold if they dont skate their best.

 

[Jimmy Hoffa]

The odds are extremely low, but I am throwing my hat in the ring for Kwan to win ladies gold. Since I'm being ridiculous, I might as well bet on Shen and Zhao for gold.

 

[Vash01]

The odds are extremely low, but I am throwing my hat in the ring for Kwan to win ladies gold. Since I'm being ridiculous, I might as well bet on Shen and Zhao for gold.

I don't think it is ridiculous at all. Kwan and S&Z are capable of winning the OGM if they are healthy enough to get through their long programs. I expect them to be in decent, if not in top shape. Neither will carrry the load of heavy expectations and that will help them.

Vash

 

[slutskayafan21]

I don't think it is ridiculous at all. Kwan and S&Z are capable of winning the OGM if they are healthy enough to get through their long programs. I expect them to be in decent, if not in top shape. Neither will carrry the load of heavy expectations and that will help them.

Vash

I dont expect Kwan to be not that high in regard with the judges right now. Her stature has dropped considerably as her world ranking has dropped, and all the time away wont help. Unless she has some sort of COP-phenom program she would already be several mistakes behind Slutskaya and Cohen for example. I could not see her coming even close to getting the scores of those two if they are clean, regardless what she does, and then there are some of the other contenders. The gold was hers to lose at the last two Olympics, this time around she is dependent on what others do, even if she miracelously recovers in time to skate better than expected.

As for Shen and Zhou we will see. They are in a better situation because of the pairs scandal of last Olympics, if they somehow clearly outskate Totmianina and Marinin the judges will probably have to get them the gold. If they manage to get through their long program without problems I will be surprised though, and the judges will give it on a platter to Totmianina and Marinin if it is even close.

 

[yelyoh]

There is ALWAYS suspense whenever a skater takes that slippery ice. I do think the Russians have the best shot in all four disciplines but anything can happen (and I suspect it will). I'll be on the edge of my seat listening to Eurosport and will enjoy every masochistic second. Go Olys!!!!!!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I dont expect Kwan to be not that high in regard with the judges right now. Her stature has dropped considerably as her world ranking has dropped, and all the time away wont help. Unless she has some sort of COP-phenom program she would already be several mistakes behind Slutskaya and Cohen for example. I could not see her coming even close to getting the scores of those two if they are clean, regardless what she does, and then there are some of the other contenders. The gold was hers to lose at the last two Olympics, this time around she is dependent on what others do, even if she miracelously recovers in time to skate better than expected.

As for Shen and Zhou we will see. They are in a better situation because of the pairs scandal of last Olympics, if they somehow clearly outskate Totmianina and Marinin the judges will probably have to get them the gold. If they manage to get through their long program without problems I will be surprised though, and the judges will give it on a platter to Totmianina and Marinin if it is even close.

ITA with your post. I can't see MK as any kind of favorite in this Olys, and the judges will not hold her up. IMO, she missed so much practice to work the technical upward and there wasn't much practice. I'm looking for a final six placement and I am not at all sure about that. I don't need to list last 6 to skate. You can name them and Kwan does not have to be one of them. There are miracle believers though, and it just might happen.

S&Z will be more welcomed by the judges, I think, but they too, have missed so much important practice and if Hongbo misses a jump that will be sufficient to mark them down. How far? who knows?

Most fans are expecting a Russian sweep, including me. Perhaps some judges will not buy that and work to get someone else in the gold category. While I don't approve of that, I think some judges may just do it for their personal reasons.

I think it is also important to scan the judges' names particularly Romania, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Ukraine, Byelorus, Russia and all those Moslem(?) judges as well as Denmark. How many are scheduled for each event and what are the odds that their judging will count?

I don't think there will be any scandal. It will be country preference only. can't do much about that. I hope I am wrong.and whoever judges they judge only what they see - a skater without a country label.

Joe

 

[rain]

Yeah, this year I'm more hoping than expecting things to turn out other than as expected - which would be Russians taking all four of the golds.
Why? Because I don't particularly like any of the frontrunners. I was always a Yagudin fan, not a Plushenko fan. Never really loved Slutskaya. Always found T/M to be a fairly technically proficient but dull team. And never thought N/K deserved the love they got from the judges and their crowning several years ago as the next G/P (not a compliment. I thought it was ludicrous how this team won every competition they entered for more than four years, no matter how poorly they skated. It made dance competitions a bore and a laughingstock at the same time.) And I want to be inspired by the Olympic gold medalists.

 

[JonnyCoop]

well, I may be the only one, but I think Mens will be suspenseful... I don't see Evgeny just taking over and owning the event... he certainly didn't in 02 and he wasn't fighting multiple injuries and all that comes with that...

I think Dance will be exciting... though I think N/K have that locked...

No, Tonichelle, you're not the only one... I have (and actually have had for the last couple of months) this weird weird weird feeling that Plushenko is not going to win. I don't know why, but I just do.

ITA that Dance will be exciting, and who would have ever thought we'd have an exciting Dance competition at Olys?? I don't see N/K losing that one, either, but the silver and bronze battle is going to be MOST exciting.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Toni and Jonny - Wishful thinking on your part, I think. His scores will be so high (deserved or not), and that's the way it is in Skateland.

Joe