World prediction for men: Chen or Hanyu?

[DizzyFrenchie]

So, I take that as a no.

He may have a Maiia Khromych moment at Worlds : at the Russian Cup final she jumped both her quad Toeloop and her quad Salchow, clean.

 

[el henry]

So, I take that as a no.

Jason has only competed once, so that is correct. This season is not a good season to judge.

Of course I love Jason, but I can't see him medaling without a quad unless everyone else bombs (then again, stranger things have happened. ) That said, I also don't think a skater is somehow more in the mix for a medal because they are practicing Quad X Y and Z. So does Jason.

They are in the mix when they land Quad X Y and Z at a comp

 

[mrrice]

He may have a Maiia Khromych moment at Worlds : at the Russian Cup final she jumped both her quad Toeloop and her quad Salchow, clean.

I have been watching Jason for so many years. He did really well even without a 3A when he has a Junior due to his skating skills and Rohene Programs. With the Olympics fast approaching, he REALLY needs that quad if he's going to make a statement at the games. Do we have any skaters coming up that can land quads reliably? Does Jason need more than one quad to make the team next year?

 

[el henry]

I have been watching Jason for so many years. He did really well even without a 3A when he has a Junior due to his skating skills and Rohene Programs. With the Olympics fast approaching, he REALLY needs that quad if he's going to make a statement at the games. Do we have any skaters coming up that can land quads reliably? Does Jason need more than one quad to make the team next year?

Well, this is a little off topic for this year's Worlds, but I will try to relate it.

As you know, Mr Rice, every year some young gun with quads, or several young guns with quads, come to US Nats. And then the hand-wringing, oh Jason better watch out, oh Jason can't just rest on his laurels, oh young gun looks like a prime A quadster.

And every year, Jason does what he does so incredibly well, maxes out all his other points (as this sport allows and contemplates) and the mere fact of being a young quadster is not enough. The exception being the Oly year, where Jason bombed his LP and beat himself.

That will be the case at Worlds as well. I don't care if 85 other skaters have 85 other quads, they need to get at least some points on other skills. And if they don't, and if the quads aren't there that night, well, as I said earlier, stranger things have happened.

 

[mrrice]

Well, this is a little off topic for this year's Worlds, but I will try to relate it.

As you know, Mr Rice, every year some young gun with quads, or several young guns with quads, come to US Nats. And then the hand-wringing, oh Jason better watch out, oh Jason can't just rest on his laurels, oh young gun looks like a prime A quadster.

And every year, Jason does what he does so incredibly well, maxes out all his other points (as this sport allows and contemplates) and the mere fact of being a young quadster is not enough. The exception being the Oly year, where Jason bombed his LP and beat himself.

That will be the case at Worlds as well. I don't care if 85 other skaters have 85 other quads, they need to get at least some points on other skills. And if they don't, and if the quads aren't there that night, well, as I said earlier, stranger things have happened.

What happened to Alexei Krasnozhon? I really thought he was going to bump Jason out of the third spot this year. I remember calling Camden Pulkinen "Baby Max" because he skated with so much power and speed that reminded of Max Arron

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

What happened to Alexei Krasnozhon? I really thought he was going to bump Jason out of the third spot this year. I remember calling Camden Pulkinen "Baby Max" because he skated with so much power and speed that reminded of Max Arron

I have been watching Jason for so many years. He did really well even without a 3A when he has a Junior due to his skating skills and Rohene Programs. With the Olympics fast approaching, he REALLY needs that quad if he's going to make a statement at the games. Do we have any skaters coming up that can land quads reliably? Does Jason need more than one quad to make the team next year?

Alexei has been SUPER inconsistent this season. Camden is an alternate for Worlds and did quite well at US Nationals, and I could see a bright future ahead of him. I think Jason will stay the third man for the Olympics, though. He has consistency, even though he doesn't have the high tech content. This season being essentially nonexistent was really bad for his quad, though, because he needs to practice it more in competition.

 

[TontoK]

I have been watching Jason for so many years. He did really well even without a 3A when he has a Junior due to his skating skills and Rohene Programs. With the Olympics fast approaching, he REALLY needs that quad if he's going to make a statement at the games. Do we have any skaters coming up that can land quads reliably? Does Jason need more than one quad to make the team next year?

While is is not a given that USA will have three Olympic spots, I think most people will concede that it is more likely than not. So, for the sake of argument, let's assume that. In the same vein, just to move the discussion along, we will hypthetically give one of those places to Nathan. I believe most people would agree that Jason and Vincent are the most likely skaters to get the other two... at least right now.

So, who could upset the applecart? There are a few rivals. It remains to be seen whether they can skate to their abilities... just as the favorites must skate to theirs.

• Yaroslav Paniot, who will be 24 in 2022. The surprise (to me, anyway) 4th Place finisher at the recent US Nationals has a really pretty 4F, in addition to 4S and 4T. He's coached by Todd Eldridge... and that seems like a very good fit. The story is not entirely clear in my mind, but he and his team seem to believe that he'll earn citizenship in time and be released by the Ukrainian fed, too.
• While he is not my cup of tea (and you didn't ask specifically about skaters I enjoy the most), Jimmy Ma recently added 4S to his arsenal to go with his 4T. It's possible he could pull it all together.
• Camden Pulkinin, Andrew Torgashev, and Alexei Krasnozhon also have quads, but injury and consistency issues seem to plague them all. I wish them all well, especially Torgashev, who I think is a beautiful skater.

Two other relatively new faces pop to mind. Both will be 17 (I think) at the next Olympics. It's easy to wave them away as being not fully developed, but both Nathan and Vincent were about that age in Pyongyang. If they continue to develop and land the content they're working on, they could be very competitive on base value alone.

• I began following Ilia Malinin thanks to a recommendation from my friend @el henry. He's already landed 4T and 4S in competition at Skate America, and I've seen footage of a beautiful 4Z. Rumor is that he has a 4F now, too, although I have not seen footage. He recently posted a 4A in harness - whether that means he's really trying to develop the jump, I don't know. I think he's a charmer, and definitely a daredevil. He's coached by his parents, both former Uzbek skaters. His mother is Tatiana Malinina, who us old timers will remember was a long-time Worlds competitor and a Four Continents and GP Final Champion. I think she won NHK a couple of times.
• I don't know anything about Will Annis, other than he recently posted the most glorious 4Loop I have ever seen in my life. He has a 4T, as well. These are recent aquisitions. Like Malinin, he seems to be at an age when things are developing rapidly.

Do I think Vincent and Jason are favored for the Olympics? Yes. Do I think they're a lock? Not by any stretch. Which of those two is the most vulnerable? Jason.

 

[Jeanie19]

While is is not a given that USA will have three Olympic spots, I think most people will concede that it is more likely than not. So, for the sake of argument, let's assume that. In the same vein, just to move the discussion along, we will hypthetically give one of those places to Nathan. I believe most people would agree that Jason and Vincent are the most likely skaters to get the other two... at least right now.

So, who could upset the applecart? There are a few rivals. It remains to be seen whether they can skate to their abilities... just as the favorites must skate to theirs.

• Yaroslav Paniot, who will be 24 in 2022. The surprise (to me, anyway) 4th Place finisher at the recent US Nationals has a really pretty 4F, in addition to 4S and 4T. He's coached by Todd Eldridge... and that seems like a very good fit. The story is not entirely clear in my mind, but he and his team seem to believe that he'll earn citizenship in time and be released by the Ukrainian fed, too.
• While he is not my cup of tea (and you didn't ask specifically about skaters I enjoy the most), Jimmy Ma recently added 4S to his arsenal to go with his 4T. It's possible he could pull it all together.
• Camden Pulkinin, Andrew Torgashev, and Alexei Krasnozhon also have quads, but injury and consistency issues seem to plague them all. I wish them all well, especially Torgashev, who I think is a beautiful skater.

Two other relatively new faces pop to mind. Both will be 17 (I think) at the next Olympics. It's easy to wave them away as being not fully developed, but both Nathan and Vincent were about that age in Pyongyang. If they continue to develop and land the content they're working on, they could be very competitive on base value alone.

• I began following Ilia Malinin thanks to a recommendation from my friend @el henry. He's already landed 4T and 4S in competition at Skate America, and I've seen footage of a beautiful 4Z. Rumor is that he has a 4F now, too, although I have not seen footage. He recently posted a 4A in harness - whether that means he's really trying to develop the jump, I don't know. I think he's a charmer, and definitely a daredevil. He's coached by his parents, both former Uzbek skaters. His mother is Tatiana Malinina, who us old timers will remember was a long-time Worlds competitor and a Four Continents and GP Final Champion. I think she won NHK a couple of times.
• I don't know anything about Will Annis, other than he recently posted the most glorious 4Loop I have ever seen in my life. He has a 4T, as well. These are recent aquisitions. Like Malinin, he seems to be at an age when things are developing rapidly.

Do I think Vincent and Jason are favored for the Olympics? Yes. Do I think they're a lock? Not by any stretch. Which of those two is the most vulnerable? Jason.

I would add Maxim Naumov to the mix also. So potentially there are quite a few to battle for spots at Beijing.

 

[TontoK]

I would add Maxim Naumov to the mix also. So potentially there are quite a few to battle for spots at Beijing.

Yes. He slipped my mind. The question was about skaters with quads, and he didn't show any at US Nationals. But since then, he has 4S that I have seen. I'm excited about this, because I think he's a very elegant skater.

 

[mrrice]

While is is not a given that USA will have three Olympic spots, I think most people will concede that it is more likely than not. So, for the sake of argument, let's assume that. In the same vein, just to move the discussion along, we will hypthetically give one of those places to Nathan. I believe most people would agree that Jason and Vincent are the most likely skaters to get the other two... at least right now.

So, who could upset the applecart? There are a few rivals. It remains to be seen whether they can skate to their abilities... just as the favorites must skate to theirs.

• Yaroslav Paniot, who will be 24 in 2022. The surprise (to me, anyway) 4th Place finisher at the recent US Nationals has a really pretty 4F, in addition to 4S and 4T. He's coached by Todd Eldridge... and that seems like a very good fit. The story is not entirely clear in my mind, but he and his team seem to believe that he'll earn citizenship in time and be released by the Ukrainian fed, too.
• While he is not my cup of tea (and you didn't ask specifically about skaters I enjoy the most), Jimmy Ma recently added 4S to his arsenal to go with hisd skating 4T. It's possible he could pull it all together.
• Camden Pulkinin, Andrew Torgashev, and Alexei Krasnozhon also have quads, but injury and consistency issues seem to plague them all. I wish them all well, especially Torgashev, who I think is a beautiful skater.

Two other relatively new faces pop to mind. Both will be 17 (I think) at the next Olympics. It's easy to wave them away as being not fully developed, but both Nathan and Vincent were about that age in Pyongyang. If they continue to develop and land the content they're working on, they could be very competitive on base value alone.

• I began following Ilia Malinin thanks to a recommendation from my friend @el henry. He's already landed 4T and 4S in competition at Skate America, and I've seen footage of a beautiful 4Z. Rumor is that he has a 4F now, too, although I have not seen footage. He recently posted a 4A in harness - whether that means he's really trying to develop the jump, I don't know. I think he's a charmer, and definitely a daredevil. He's coached by his parents, both former Uzbek skaters. His mother is Tatiana Malinina, who us old timers will remember was a long-time Worlds competitor and a Four Continents and GP Final Champion. I think she won NHK a couple of times.
• I don't know anything about Will Annis, other than he recently posted the most glorious 4Loop I have ever seen in my life. He has a 4T, as well. These are recent aquisitions. Like Malinin, he seems to be at an age when things are developing rapidly.

Do I think Vincent and Jason are favored for the Olympics? Yes. Do I think they're a lock? Not by any stretch. Which of those two is the most vulnerable? Jason.

I agree with you about Yaroslav. We all know how much I loved Todd's skating and this was a true surprise at Nationals.

 

[TontoK]

I agree with you about Yaroslav. We all know how much I loved Todd's skating and this was a true surprise at Nationals.

I think we're on the same wavelength.

Knowing he's under Todd's care makes me more confident about his prospects.

 

[pianistliz]

I feel like I haven't seen Hanyu in forever. At this point, I have to go with Nathan. Not sure who can push him other than Hanyu. Maybe Kolyada or a squeaky clean Vincent.

Did you watch Japanese nationals?

I'd say Hanyu looks better than anyone this season, AND he's in the right mental space. Injury-free plus focused plus programs that suit him = epic worlds performances from Hanyu. However, I think Nathan will probably win worlds anyway. I view them as on the same plane technically, with Nathan more consistent in competition and Hanyu with better spins and a little better artistically (though I know that's very subjective and I think Nathan's done an amazing job hitting his artistic stride). But the points system will also give Nathan's tech score that extra edge. That plus maybe his consistency (although I have a feeling Hanyu will go totally clean too at this comp) plus he's the reigning champion will give him just enough points to edge out Hanyu. I highly respect Nathan and he's a very inspiring athlete. But I dearly want Hanyu to win. I've resigned myself however to just enjoy watching an epic night of skating with both of them doing unbelievably amazing things in their own ways.

 

[pianistliz]

I'm not going to get into who I think will win, because I have no idea, but here's some pros and cons to help you figure out who you think has the edge.

Nathan Pros
Super long winning streak
Likely higher BV
Going in as champion
Has skated in two physical competitions, one virtual, and one pseudo comp this year
Landed quad loop at the Las Vegas Invitational aka the pseudo comp

Nathan Cons
Sloppy jumps and spins at recent competitions
New FS that, in my opinion, isn't as strong
Seems to be a little off ever since the pandemic - lost crucial development time with stamina and perfecting skills

Yuzuru Pros
Great FS at Nationals
More experience/stamina
Basically injury-free
Seems renewed after break from skating/revisiting why he skates
Will have PCS advantage
Two new programs
Will probably try 4A

Yuzuru Cons
Has had injury in the past and is older
Has two new programs
Has only skated in one competition this year
Will probably try 4A
Hasn't met coaches in a long time
Rink was shut down after recent Fukushima earthquake, don't know what he did after that or if it's reopened yet

Assuming Yuzuru does 4 quads in the free and Nathan does 5, the PCS and GOE advantage for Yuzuru should somewhat balance out the BV difference. Really it will come down to who is clean and who earns higher GOE. If both skaters are clean, little things like spin and step sequence levels and transitions will be crucial. But we haven't seen a 100% healthy Yuzuru vs. Nathan, so this should be entertaining.

And don't even get me started on the bronze medal...how am I ever going to choose for my prediction????

Haha love that the 4A is both a pro and a con. I'm so excited for the fight for bronze!!! It reminds me of when Yuzu won the bronze in 2012. It could be another up-and-comer's turn like Yuma's to pull something like that. I don't even know, no clue. If I could give the bronze to any hardworking, talented skater though, it would be Jason!!!

 

[zebobes]

I love both Nathan and Yuzuru, so at this point, I would be happy if either of them won, but one thing that I think would be cool to see is for Yuzu to win in the short, and see how Nathan would handle that mentally. I think that Yuzu knows the short is critical for him in his head to heads against Nathan, and he always psychs himself out and messes up. I could be wrong, but I don't think anyone has ever beaten Nathan in his entire career if he is leading in the short program. I think the drama of having Yuzu win the short, and see if he can keep himself mentally together in the free, and Nathan trying to overtake Yuzu in the free would make for the most exciting competition.

I suppose the converse is true as well. If Yuzu can be close to Nathan in the short and beat him and win in the free would also open things up a great deal too. In Men's, however, it seems like there is always only one person who is completely "on" on a given day. When Yuzu and Javi were competing, they would trade who was "on" for the SP and the FS, and usually whoever was on for the FS would win.

So, I'm just looking forward to the show, no predictions about who is going to win.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

I see it this way going into Worlds -

1. Chen v. Hanyu

As discussed, Chen has an edge but the gap is significantly closer than in 2019

3. Uno, Zhou, Kolyada

All 3 have improved: Uno is regaining form, but Zhou has also improved on so many fronts - URs, spins, FW, transitions, extension, and Kolyada is consistently landing jumps from the 4T down and while showing the same mad SS. I think any of these 3 could do it.

6. Jin

I don't quite consider him a medal threat because the aforementioned 3 skaters offer a little more. Jin has a monster 4Z, but he is susceptible to skittish landings and his non-jump elements / PCS don't somehow achieve the same quality as the medal threats. When he skates clean though, he might be in the mix. I also think he has a good shot of being in the final group.

7. Kagiyama, Cha, Rizzo, Brown, Messing, Aymoz

IMO, this is probably the penultimate group: Kagiyama is new but shows tons of promise. Unlike others, I don't consider him a medal threat and there is still some juniorish qualities to his skating, and I think judges will lowball him a little as a newbie. Cha has pretty solid 4S and 3Z-3L and he might make a mark. Rizzo has a 4T and Intl. judges like his skating - IIRC, he made the final group at 2019 Worlds. Messing is hit or miss this year and skating clean w/ his explosive elements could dominate this group or even go higher, but that is 50-50 looking at his competitions the last couple of years. Aymoz is a real wild card and I remember his last competition was a disaster, but he skates with joy and has a 4T, still I see clean skates from the other 4 I mentioned in this group beating him out. Brown has to hit everything and maximize GOE / PCS since he's quad-less. Since these men only do 1-2 quads max, it is possible that Brown can do it but I don't think he has an edge really. I would call Brown even with competent skates from these men. Kagiyama, Cha, Rizzo and Messing are the 4 of 6 who I think have a shot at getting into the final group if someone has a crack-up

Further down - Men like Han Yan, Bychenko and Brezina have seen better days. It's lovely that Yan has a gorge 3A but he is normally puts out disastrous skates. It is laudable that Brezina has stuck it out but his skating seems a little dated and checked out, and I watched Bychenko recently and his harder jumps weren't there.

Bychenko was recovering from injury. He has 4T and 3A back.

BTW Matteo Rizzo can do 4Lo in practice, and landed 4Loq. He is aiming for a three quad FS layout, and his skating skills aren't far behind Kolyada (Kolyada is the best here imo, but there isn't a massive gap).

Depending on a variety of factors, Matteo could easily be in the top 6 and potentially a medal threat. (Of course he isn't consistent, so anything can happen but it can all come together on the day like it did in Universiade)

 

[Apple1078]

Bychenko was recovering from injury. He has 4T and 3A back.

BTW Matteo Rizzo can do 4Lo in practice, and landed 4Loq. He is aiming for a three quad FS layout, and his skating skills aren't far behind Kolyada (Kolyada is the best here imo, but there isn't a massive gap).

Depending on a variety of factors, Matteo could easily be in the top 6 and potentially a medal threat. (Of course he isn't consistent, so anything can happen but it can all come together on the day like it did in Universiade)

Agree about Matteo Rizzo. I guess my only concern would be his stamina after covid. He looked exhausted after the FS in his last competition.

 

[Likeadream]

Agree about Matteo Rizzo. I guess my only concern would be his stamina after covid. He looked exhausted after the FS in his last competition.

I followed italian competitions. I think Grassl had Covid, not Rizzo...Grassl has always been technically, by far, above the others in each event, he scored very high.He only lost the italian GP final , where he looked exausted, still recovering from COVID. If he is now healthy he should start from a higher BV respect to his teammate. We'll see. I think Italy has very good chances of nice results with two strong men, not only Rizzo.

Between Hanyu and Chen I think Chen is the obvious choice but Yuzu was fantastic in december, IMO the best performance this season among men. And we are talking about Hanyu...so everything possible.

 

[eppen]

I agree with most of the things said above. As this will decide most of the places at Olympics, there is a lot on the plate, both thinking about individuals and countries.

The top is very likely to be decided between Chen and Hanyu. The PCS difference depends probably solely on how clean they skate. Hanyu might get just a tad higher score if he is clean, but not much - in the 2019 GP Final it was 47.33 for Hanyu and 47.25 for Chen in the SP (and Hanyu was not clean, so that was a pretty generous score for him). But if there are mistakes, even Hanyu is likely to get low PCS - the 2019 GP Final PCS score was 93.64, in the 4CC he got 91.28.

It is really hard to predict who might get the bronze. Depends a lot on the day. I can still see in my minds eye how the 2018 Worlds last group fell and fell and fell. Uno and Zhou have the tech goods, but if they fail Kolyada might be knocking on the door if he has a good day (though it was interesting to see his PCS drop almost 5 points for both programs in front of an international panel in Challenge Cup compared to what the Russian panels had given him). Kagiyama is a bigger question mark - his first year in seniors and not whole lot of exposure plus he is still a bit juniorish IMO. If he does get the tech going, the probable lowish PCS might still keep him off medals depending on what the other do. Jin has the tech goods in theory, but could go any way, and with the general not-so-very-impressive performance and overall skating, he would have to deliver technically to get anywhere.

Aymoz tried two quads in the fall, but did not show the 4S in the French nationals a couple weeks ago. Grassl is not particularly consistent and usually has low quality in both jumps and the rest of his skating. Rizzo has more quality in many ways but is also inconsistent. Jason has deffo the quality, but with that tech content, he would have a hard time making it good in the ladies these days. Vasiljevs is a bit of the same despite the successful 4S in the fall, but with less overall quality. Ditto for Han Yan.

I think I will root for Kevin Aymoz, Han Yan and Aleksander Selevko to get really good performances in both programs. For the rest, I don't care that much.

And I am even contemplating of getting a paid subcription to watch ES in Spanish - Javi will be commenting for them and am curious to hear if he is any good at that...

E

 

[Gabby30]

If both are clean- i guess the judges migh give it to Chen. But it can also happen that both bomb and there's a surprising winner ( remember that Fernandez is a 2 time world champion....). I just hope to see Kolyada or Boyang on the podium

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

If anyone's going to bomb, I think it will be Nathan. Yuzuru seems to have been through a lot last year but has since toughened up and rediscovered his love for skating. He talked at the Japanese Nationals press conference about how he got so depressed he couldn't even jump a triple axel in November, but he then goes and pulls out a wonderful performance less than two months later at Nationals. He seemed super grateful for the chance to skate again, and just looked so happy throughout the entire event. Nathan seems... I dunno, less into skating??? With him taking the break after the Olympics and his sloppy performances at SkAm and US Nats, I feel like maybe the pandemic really got to him, or maybe he's just sick of winning all the time. Don't get me wrong, his performances were still great, but I felt like there was something missing, and he wasn't giving it 100%. Especially with the Olympics coming up and knowing that he failed spectacularly at the Olympic short, that's got to be putting some pressure on him, even if he doesn't realize it. And maybe I'm just hyper-analyzing, but Metamorphosis Nathan is not Rocketman Nathan. Rocketman Nathan could beat Yuzuru easily. Metamorphosis Nathan is a huge question mark. So, we'll just have to see.