World prediction for men: Chen or Hanyu?

[DizzyFrenchie]

Yuzuru and Nathan to me both would perform better with audience. Both would get energy from the audience, especially Nathan, who would compliment audience every time for helping him getting through the free program. So it is kinda hard for them to perform without audience.

OTOH, both seem to benefit from less training/competitions to some degree than they usually do with their coaches. Yuzu looked so refreshed at the nationals, especially compared with nationals the previous year. He looked so exhausted at GPF and nationals.

In Nathan’s case, he voiced that this is the longest preparation for worlds since he went to college. He has to be careful with the increased volume of training so as to stay injury free.

Hope we will see two clean programs from both of them.

I think too, both fare better with an audience. Many skaters do, isn't it?
There Nathan Chen may be at advantage because he had Skate America and Nationals experience of a skate without audience.
In a comment here I read Mikhail Kolyada had chosen to compete at Challenge Cup to train to skate with full safety measures and no audience.
Last season at GPF he had had 3 big jet-lags in less than 3 weeks, and at Nationals, he had had 5. He was exhausted to the last degree. So much that I confess I didn't want to watch his skates there (like sick Anna Shcherbakova and injured Alexandra Trusova at their Nationals this year). Maybe he wanted to asses his resistance to many jet-lags in a raw, he had an answer. This year he didn't have any jet-lag yet, though he seems to skate by night and must communicate with his distance coaches at odd-times, but he didn't have physiotherapy either so it necessarily hampered his skate. Do you know if Nathan Chen could access some physiotherapy?

 

[DizzyFrenchie]

Thank you for drawing that conclusion. There is after all a very popular and widespread discourse elevating Hanyu to the position of an infallible divinity despite the results showing him to be a mere mortal.

5th position it was - lukewarm gets even colder.

E

Yes, 5th position. The first big judging error against him. I haven't tried to count what his score would have been, had his minor error (much less than the 50% weight transfer, rather about 1/3, and in what style) in the combo not being wrongly called as a major error, but certainly he wouldn't have been 5th. This short program by the way, I regard as the most difficult (overall) short program ever skated, I don't think even him ever surpassed it, though Otoñal could be rather insane too in its way.

 

[Likeadream]

Thank you for drawing that conclusion. There is after all a very popular and widespread discourse elevating Hanyu to the position of an infallible divinity despite the results showing him to be a mere mortal.

5th position it was - lukewarm gets even colder.

E

We all have our favorites, is human, but I believe that in this constructive and interesting thread no one wants to depict Hanyu as an infallible deity. Surely there are tons of fangirls elsewhere who worship him, but not in this discussion.
He has had bad performances during his career like any mortal skater. What seems ungenerous to me is to attribute his successes to mere "luck". Javi, a skater that I deeply love, was the best in 2015 and 2016 worlds. I would never dare to argue that he was lucky and won only because others bombed.

 

[yume]

Every single top men in the last 10 years has won some competitions with mistakes and there hasn't been any big competition where some of the top contenders didn't underperform.

Yes. 2018 GPF was not glorious at all. Everyone underperformed.
2018 worlds was an hot mess. Bombing fest.

But medalists are medalists, no matter how they peformed.

 

[mrrice]

Where are you finding those? I'd like to follow along.

I'm sure they will show up here first. Someone who attends the event will usually post here on GS. With the way things are however, I doubt we'll get stories of seeing skaters in a hotel lobby or out to dinner like we usually do.

 

[TontoK]

I was going to refrain from posting footage from young skaters I mentioned in my lengthy response to a question from @mrrice about up and coming American skaters with quads. But we've since devolved into arguing about past competitions and shading past champions, and this is no more off-topic than that. Perhaps it will turn the thread to a more positive direction. Anyway, here is some footage that I referenced earlier in the thread:

Will Annis 4Lp. The ride out on this is *chef's kiss* glorious.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CLVEBJNgeVG/

Maxim Naumov 4S. The fist-pump at the end tells the story.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CKzVd8lgVqZ/

Ilia Malinin 4Z. He has a lot of a show-off content. A fun guy.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CHQ5YfCHEvA/

Bonus: Malinin 4A in Harness

https://www.instagram.com/p/CLuy9ZyHfgS/

 

[eppen]

We all have our favorites, is human, but I believe that in this constructive and interesting thread no one wants to depict Hanyu as an infallible deity. Surely there are tons of fangirls elsewhere who worship him, but not in this discussion.
He has had bad performances during his career like any mortal skater. What seems ungenerous to me is to attribute his successes to mere "luck". Javi, a skater that I deeply love, was the best in 2015 and 2016 worlds. I would never dare to argue that he was lucky and won only because others bombed.

Alas, in my 40 years of FS fandom, Javi is the skater who I love most, well above anyone else. But I am also ruthlessly realistic - in 2015 he had a very good SP which was maybe slightly underscored (not even a SB), but the judges were lenient in the FS to make up the difference. He won because he was the one who had two ok performances, Ten and Hanyu were hot and cold. That was a bit lucky. In 2016, Javi was probably more aware of the possibility that he could win. But ofc with the point difference after SP it seemed very unlikely. That FS is one for the ages and it still remains the only FS in singles skating which has gotten 3 full 10s in PCS. Overlall that competition was hot and cold for Javi, but the value of that FS is not diminished - Hanyu would have needed to get 204+ points to beat Javi which would have been a good result for Hanyu even that season.

But that is how it goes. Some skate well, some skate poorly. Very rarely have we seen men's competitions where everyone in the top flight would have been of top quality. The SP in 2017 was pretty close - the top 6 all with 95+ with the top 3 all over 100 points.

E

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Yeah, you're not a Hanyu fan, but you're a Fernandez fan. Javier is the best example of a skater who won only because others underperformed, and not because he was that good. Let's not forget this

You might remember that but Javier earned his Worlds wins. Especially the second one - he delivered while Hanyu as the favourite faltered. He rose to the occasion while others messed up and that shouldn’t trivialize his achievements.

 

[FayD]

He rose to the occasion while others messed up and that shouldn’t trivialize his achievements.

Absolutely.
And the same goes for the competitions Yuzuru won

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Absolutely.
And the same goes for the competitions Yuzuru won

Agreed. We know that Chen could have had a better SP and won the Olympics but that didn't happen.

We also know Hanyu could have skated better to win Worlds in 2015/2016, but he didn't and Fernandez did step up.

It's kinda like how people try to trivialize Duhamel and Radford's worlds wins. If everyone went clean were they supposed to win? Nope. But they stepped up and won.

I'm glad people can acknowledge that everyone is healthy and poised to skate their best (no audience aside). On some level I like how this Worlds is a "control" Worlds, where we really get to see how the athletes perform with variables aside. I feel/hope we might see some personal bests because it'll feel more like a "practice" and not the pressure of competition.

 

[Arriba627]

Whether Shoma comes in 1st or 101st, he will always be my favorite skater. That being said, just to comment on Javi -- I was at Boston Worlds 2016, and he held the audience in the palm of his hand for that FS. I don't know how he could even hear the music towards the end of his program, what with the audience starting to go crazy. What a skate that was! I have lost track of how many times I've watched it. David Wilson knew what he was doing when he picked a Frank Sinatra song for an audience with lots of Americans...I'm pretty lukewarm about a lot of other Javi programs, but this one was a jewel.

Adding -- CSG, Meghan and Eric were awesome!

 

[mrrice]

Nathan is the two time and Reigning Champion. I also think he knows he has to come up big to plant himself as the favorite for the Olympics. That is powerful incentive. I can't wait!! May the best skater win in a scandal free Worlds.

 

[Olympic]

Question about Grassl: I was watching the ITA broadcast of his SP and LP at his nationals. Were the commentators questioning his ability to fully rotate the quads? I think a big question of how high he can go will depend on his success rate with clean jumps. He has unique presentation and ambitious tech ability. It looked like his 4L was UR and I think the commentators were questioning the 4Z .... He might make a leap into the penultimate group if he has it together regardless of how the others skate

 

[GoneWithTheWind]

Question about Grassl: I was watching the ITA broadcast of his SP and LP at his nationals. Were the commentators questioning his ability to fully rotate the quads? I think a big question of how high he can go will depend on his success rate with clean jumps. He has unique presentation and ambitious tech ability. It looked like his 4L was UR and I think the commentators were questioning the 4Z .... He might make a leap into the penultimate group if he has it together regardless of how the others skate

Not sure about the commentators (my understanding of written Italian is improving, but listening is still a challenge!), but according to the protocols of the 4 home events he's done (Gran Premios/Nationals), he was called 'q' on his 4Lz 3 times and and 1 4lo received a '<'. He got an edge call on his 3Lz once, but not on any 4Lz.

His tech is definitely ambitions, but he has a decent success rate on landing his difficult elements. He's also got good spins, and commits to his choreography/program theme, even when he's made a mistake.
I really enjoyed his performances this season and really hope he does well at Worlds.

 

[el henry]

While we are posting videos of jumps from men in practice sessions:

Jason Brown's 4S on March 12

I always feel kindly to Daniel Grassl, because 1) spins and 2) he wants to skate like Jason. Good move.

Daniel Grassl: I really like Jason Brown. I want to skate like him someday.

Interview with Daniel Grassl. Daniel commented on his performance in Graz, work on under-rotations on quadruple jumps, the image of his deceased wife in a free program, and problems with skates.

fs-gossips.com

 

[TontoK]

While we are posting videos of jumps from men in practice sessions:

Jason Brown's 4S on March 12

That's beautiful. Great landing position, fully rotated, and a nice ride-out. The best I've seen from Jason.

 

[Olympic]

While we are posting videos of jumps from men in practice sessions:

Jason Brown's 4S on March 12

I always feel kindly to Daniel Grassl, because 1) spins and 2) he wants to skate like Jason. Good move.

Daniel Grassl: I really like Jason Brown. I want to skate like him someday.

Interview with Daniel Grassl. Daniel commented on his performance in Graz, work on under-rotations on quadruple jumps, the image of his deceased wife in a free program, and problems with skates.

fs-gossips.com

Gorge. NOW it needs to happen in competition!

 

[Ruthypegs]

While we are posting videos of jumps from men in practice sessions:

Jason Brown's 4S on March 12

I always feel kindly to Daniel Grassl, because 1) spins and 2) he wants to skate like Jason. Good move.

Daniel Grassl: I really like Jason Brown. I want to skate like him someday.

Interview with Daniel Grassl. Daniel commented on his performance in Graz, work on under-rotations on quadruple jumps, the image of his deceased wife in a free program, and problems with skates.

fs-gossips.com

Thanks for the clip, @el henry - that's brightened my day - beautiful, elegant, and he makes it look effortless.

 

[1111bm]

I wouldn't exactly call that fully rotated... looks borderline, if not under-rotated, but he might of course get lucky and only receive a q for that.
What happened to the 4T though, seems a strange strategy, to be switching back and forth like that instead of stabilising one of them in competition first (but what do I know, whatever he's comfortabe with at the time, I guess).

 

[Olympic]

I wouldn't exactly call that fully rotated... looks borderline, if not under-rotated, but he might of course get lucky and only receive a q for that.
What happened to the 4T though, seems a strange strategy, to be switching back and forth like that instead of stabilising one of them in competition first (but what do I know, whatever he's comfortabe with at the time, I guess).

Back when, it was mentioned in some interview that he liked the 4T but was better in his attempts at the 4S