World prediction for men: Chen or Hanyu?
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The "thing missing" at Nationals was, for what I saw, the usual excellence of some of his jumps from take-off to landing (except the stiffness of the landing).
And the reason seemed to me, not a weakness but to the contrary, he managed to deliver nice jumps entries (a rarity before), endangering his body balance in steps, remain supple (his back mainly) in steps and spins, AND performance and interpretation. All of this. I was so excited. I don't know how long it will take him to put all this together with his usual quality of jump, if he can do it at Worlds he will be (legitimately) untouchable unless Yuzuru Hanyu adds base value, because what Yuzuru Hanyu has more is only marginally accounted for in scores (and that's normal); but I think Worlds 2021 are too early for him to have it all, so he and his team have a choice between delivering the best he can at Worlds, risk a Silver, and be a superb, complete skater at Olympics; or retrenching from his late progress to secure cleaner jumps at Worlds, and maybe being less advanced for Olympics? Or not?
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They have to quarantine once they arrive until they receive a negative COVID test
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I'd cut Nathan some slack - Yuzuru got to perform for an audience at his Nationals and Nathan didn't. Makes sense something was missing. It'll be missing at Worlds too (I think...is there gonna be spectators?) But hopefully having his rival there will push him to give a little more.
Yuzuru and Nathan to me both would perform better with audience. Both would get energy from the audience, especially Nathan, who would compliment audience every time for helping him getting through the free program. So it is kinda hard for them to perform without audience.
OTOH, both seem to benefit from less training/competitions to some degree than they usually do with their coaches. Yuzu looked so refreshed at the nationals, especially compared with nationals the previous year. He looked so exhausted at GPF and nationals.
In Nathan’s case, he voiced that this is the longest preparation for worlds since he went to college. He has to be careful with the increased volume of training so as to stay injury free.
Hope we will see two clean programs from both of them.
OTOH, both seem to benefit from less training/competitions to some degree than they usually do with their coaches. Yuzu looked so refreshed at the nationals, especially compared with nationals the previous year. He looked so exhausted at GPF and nationals.
In Nathan’s case, he voiced that this is the longest preparation for worlds since he went to college. He has to be careful with the increased volume of training so as to stay injury free.
Hope we will see two clean programs from both of them.
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So, I just went back and binge-watched all of Aymoz, Grassl, Vassiljevs, and Rizzo at their Nationals (Denis at Nebelhorn) just over the last couple of months. I couldn't find any videos of Messing to reassess his chances. Didn't he skate at Canadian competitions sometime after SkAm? If anyone knows how he looks (jump layout, etc.), it would be interesting to know.
All looked very strong. I think Rizzo and Aymoz will commit to one quad in the LP. I will say that if both are clean, the edge would go to Aymoz. The problem is if I had to pick the one less stable, it would also be Aymoz. Vassiljevs is hitting 4S? News to me (Sorry, late to the game). Maybe he figures into a top 10 spot. Also much more of a deal is Grassl. I missed that one, too. However, his landings look iffy on some of those quads, his presentation is still a bit 'small' and I think an ISU panel will be tough on him.
Good to hear Bychenko has the 4T and 3A back. I don't think it will be enough though to keep up with all of the aforementioned. Of course, if anyone has disaster skates, that will always change the calculus.
All looked very strong. I think Rizzo and Aymoz will commit to one quad in the LP. I will say that if both are clean, the edge would go to Aymoz. The problem is if I had to pick the one less stable, it would also be Aymoz. Vassiljevs is hitting 4S? News to me (Sorry, late to the game). Maybe he figures into a top 10 spot. Also much more of a deal is Grassl. I missed that one, too. However, his landings look iffy on some of those quads, his presentation is still a bit 'small' and I think an ISU panel will be tough on him.
Good to hear Bychenko has the 4T and 3A back. I don't think it will be enough though to keep up with all of the aforementioned. Of course, if anyone has disaster skates, that will always change the calculus.
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Skate Canada Challenge: Roman won
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I think you're referencing the question about Messing.
I don't think he competed at the Skate Canada Challenge. I believe Skate America was his most recent competition - but someone will correct me if that's not right.
That's correct. Keegan did not take part in Challenge. Apparently, there was an issue with getting the official recording made since he is in Alaska.
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The thing about Chen is that he seems to adjust his performance according to the field in each competition. If he needs to go all out, he will do that. If less is needed, he will do that. In the nationals, Zhou put out a big program in the SP and Chen responded with his most difficult content. In the FS, he definitely did not go all out, but then he did not need to. This has happened in quite a few other competitions IMO and it remains to be seen whether he will be able to keep this up.
Hanyu is far more unpredictible IMO. He may be able to pull out two good or even excellent programs, or then not, you never know. In 2015-6, he had two perfect competitions back to back in the fall (after a not very promising start of the season), then a good SP in the worlds and a complete bomb in the FS. Since then, it has been hot and cold. He has been able to keep it together sufficiently many times, but some of the wins he has gotten more bcs the others bombed and not bcs he would have been very good.
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Hanyu is far more unpredictible IMO. He may be able to pull out two good or even excellent programs, or then not, you never know. In 2015-6, he had two perfect competitions back to back in the fall (after a not very promising start of the season), then a good SP in the worlds and a complete bomb in the FS. Since then, it has been hot and cold. He has been able to keep it together sufficiently many times, but some of the wins he has gotten more bcs the others bombed and not bcs he would have been very good.
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True and speaking of audience energy let’s not forget that he easily won Worlds 2019 after Hanyu delivered on home ice. While projection is hard without an audience I think Chen has showed a couple times this season that he still commits to his programs. And he knows he can win if he just does his thing.
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This sentence seems quite unfair to me. After 2015 he won Worlds17 with a score of 321.59, above the personal best of all other competitors. A score that actually is the third highest ever before the rules change (the first and second are also his).
At the 2018 Olympics he won with 317.85, above the personal best of all other competitors at that moment except Shoma Uno.
I think he has been very good.
Sport results strongly depend on errors under pressure and risking difficult elements. This is part of the game.
What if Patrick skated better in Sochi? What if Yuzuru skated two clean FS in Worlds 2015 & 2016? What if Nathan skated a clean SP in Pyeongchang...? Sport doesn’t work this way...
In this Olympic cycle things are strange because basically only two stratospheric skaters have been able to break 300 (by far), with Nathan showing highest consistency and mental strength when they both competed. So I think he is the favorite for the win.
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Hanyu was 4th after the SP in 2017, but won the FS. Overall, a hot and lukewarm competition.
In 2018 Hanyu was very good in the SP, but the FS was hardly the same quality despite the high scores (far too many negative GOEs to qualify for excellent or even very good). The rest were not that glorious overall - Nathan won the FS, but completely bombed the SP. Shoma did ok, but could have done much better - at least in theory. Javi did a very good SP, but bombed the first part of his FS, and his tech content in the FS could not really carry him to the top spot if everyone else skated good.
Obviously am not a big Hanyu fan, so I look at this thourgh different color glasses
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In 2018 Hanyu was very good in the SP, but the FS was hardly the same quality despite the high scores (far too many negative GOEs to qualify for excellent or even very good). The rest were not that glorious overall - Nathan won the FS, but completely bombed the SP. Shoma did ok, but could have done much better - at least in theory. Javi did a very good SP, but bombed the first part of his FS, and his tech content in the FS could not really carry him to the top spot if everyone else skated good.
Obviously am not a big Hanyu fan, so I look at this thourgh different color glasses
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You can make this kind of analysis for plenty of competitions which weren't won by Hanyu...Hanyu was 4th after the SP in 2017, but won the FS. Overall, a hot and lukewarm competition.
In 2018 Hanyu was very good in the SP, but the FS was hardly the same quality despite the high scores (far too many negative GOEs to qualify for excellent or even very good). The rest were not that glorious overall - Nathan won the FS, but completely bombed the SP. Shoma did ok, but could have done much better - at least in theory. Javi did a very good SP, but bombed the first part of his FS, and his tech content in the FS could not really carry him to the top spot if everyone else skated good.
Obviously am not a big Hanyu fan, so I look at this thourgh different color glasses
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Every single top man in the last 10 years has won some competitions with mistakes and there hasn't been any big competition where some of the top contenders didn't underperform. It's just how the men's discipline is. If we start nitpicking then nobody has ever won anything convincingly.
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He was 5th after the SP...Hanyu was 4th after the SP in 2017, but won the FS. Overall, a hot and lukewarm competition.
In 2018 Hanyu was very good in the SP, but the FS was hardly the same quality despite the high scores (far too many negative GOEs to qualify for excellent or even very good). The rest were not that glorious overall - Nathan won the FS, but completely bombed the SP. Shoma did ok, but could have done much better - at least in theory. Javi did a very good SP, but bombed the first part of his FS, and his tech content in the FS could not really carry him to the top spot if everyone else skated good.
Obviously am not a big Hanyu fan, so I look at this thourgh different color glasses
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Thank you for drawing that conclusion. There is after all a very popular and widespread discourse elevating Hanyu to the position of an infallible divinity despite the results showing him to be a mere mortal.
5th position it was - lukewarm gets even colder.
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Yeah, you're not a Hanyu fan, but you're a Fernandez fan. Javier is the best example of a skater who won only because others underperformed, and not because he was that good. Let's not forget thisHanyu was 4th after the SP in 2017, but won the FS. Overall, a hot and lukewarm competition.
In 2018 Hanyu was very good in the SP, but the FS was hardly the same quality despite the high scores (far too many negative GOEs to qualify for excellent or even very good). The rest were not that glorious overall - Nathan won the FS, but completely bombed the SP. Shoma did ok, but could have done much better - at least in theory. Javi did a very good SP, but bombed the first part of his FS, and his tech content in the FS could not really carry him to the top spot if everyone else skated good.
Obviously am not a big Hanyu fan, so I look at this thourgh different color glasses
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Yeah, you're not a Hanyu fan, but you're a Fernandez fan. Javier is the best example of a skater who won only because others underperformed, and not because he was that good. Let's not forget this
Well, whoever my favorite is does not change Hanyu's results and uneven track record, does it?
Edit: Thinking further on the differences between Chen and Hanyu. Hanyu performs seemingly mostly everything he can do every time he competes. As said by others above, he has the possibility of modifying his content apparently according to need. It is also a possible advantage for him in Stockholm.
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Where are you finding those? I'd like to follow along.
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