Worlds Preview article

[gsk8]

Temperboy, why are you so angry? You seem to think that people write articles just to see if they can pull your chain.

Actually this is a good thing! There have been many questions about what's acceptable, borderline, etc when disagreeing with an opinion.

I don't want to mess up this thread with debates and examples, so I'm going to use that post as a learning tool in the Feedback folder.

 

[Hsuhs]

Not that I object or anything, but seeing my dear John being compared to Kristoffer Berntsson and Yannick Ponsero, who both were such a mess at Euros

http://www.isufs.org/events/cat00005641.htm

is rather painful.

Some rising talents huh?

 

[temperboy28]

Whatever, when Worlds is over, unless the performances dont happen in a way that give any chance for all my points to be proven, all the things I took issue with will be proven right the way I explained them.

 

[Spun Silver]

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall....

(J/K!)

 

[Mathman]

Temperboy, whether your predictions turn out right or wrong, you owe Gsk8 an apology for your childish rants.

 

[hongligl]

I also believe that Shen/Zhao have a much bigger edge over S/S. Shen/Zhao can afford a couple of errors to win the gold. I do love S/S but Shen/Zhao are the best. It all depends on what happens on the ice. I would like to see S/S on the podium tie for the silver or bronze. That would be the best thing I can hope for the World. I love Shen/Zhao, Pang/Tong, S/S, and Zhang/Zhang in their SP. I want to see them all skate perfectly!

And go Stephane Lambiel, Yu-na, Mao, D/S(Bulgaria), D/L, Joannie and Yan Liu(PB)!

 

[skater 17]

I think this world will be a nail bitter till the end in most events, I am intrested to see what happens with the youth and the veterians, how will they compare. How will the 3/3 play a factor and the 4 and the over all skating quality compare. Now it seems more countries have contenders especially in the top 10 in singles. And for dance, I have lately started watching it again, never watched for 10+ years it was so frustrating but now with the new system it has given me some hope.

 

[temperboy28]

As expected I was pretty much right on everything I said despite the distress over my post:

Your article is bizarre at best. Dubreuil/Lauzon will not finish out of the medals in dance, they will definitely win a medal of some color.

Ummm right, and they were not even close to not winning a medal. In retrospect they were always going to win gold or silver. Bronze medalist ended up far behind them.

As for Lambiel not being able to even hope for a medal without a triple axel, Lambiel with no triple axel in short and free skate but doing everything else will definitely beat Lysacek with a clean short and clean free skate with his 1 quad. So again under your hypothetical if Lysacek has a great shot at gold with a clean short and clean free skate with 1 quad, then Lambiel would be a near lock for gold with a clean short and clean free skate outside of no triple axel. If Lambiel cant hope to medal without a triple axel, then Lysacek cant hope to be in the top 5 with even a clean short and clean free skate with 1 quad. If Lambiel cant hope to medal without a triple axel, then Lysacek with a poor short and clean free skate with 1 quad would barely make the top 10.

The scoring protocals at Worlds proves that my comparision of Lysacek vs Lambiel was right on the money and the one in the "worlds preview article" was just as out to lunch as I said it was. Lysacek in the short did a flawed quad and the triple toe was discounted for 6 points. Lambiel downgraded his combo to a triple toe-double toe worth only 5.44 points(including 0.14 in GOE). The difference between them in the short was about the minor difference in their combo points for what they ended up doing. However Lambiel fell on his triple axel. So basically what that means is Lysacek and Lambiel doing the same jumps in the short, but Lambiel falling on his triple axel, the 2 of them are about tied, basically a huge gap between the two all things being equal.

Then in the long Lambiel makes slightly more in the way of mistakes then Lysacek and still whoops him by 12 points. Lysacek doubles one triple which loses 3.5 points, and gets -1.00 on two jumps he turns out of. Lambiel doubles one triple late worth 4.2 points, steps out of/two foots two jumps for a -2.00 on one and a -1.86 on the other. Any speculated PCS and GOE Lysacek lost, Lambiel probably lost more as his GOE were higher, and his mistakes more disruptive to his program.

Also as Lysacek's mistakes only cost him 6 points outright, and a 1 point gain in GOE and 1 point gain in PCS is a reasonable estimate my scoring estimates on him were right all along. I said after U.S Nationals the same performance would get 160 range at Four Continents, and 157 range at Worlds. He scored 159 range at Four Continents with only a very small mistake from being flawless which cost him 1 point, now a 157 is what his U.S Nationals performance is worth at Worlds. I was right all along on that as well. Lambiel's performance in fact with his 3 boo-boos likely would have still passed a perfectly clean Lysacek.

As for Lambiel needing the triple axel to beat Lysacek, his quad-triple combo in the short would have had him 80 points or more even with the fall on his triple axel. As a triple lutz-triple toe combo is worth 10 points base value even a very well done one would have had Lysacek easily below that. The long Lambiel would have gotten a much higher score just falling on his triple axel but doing all the jumps he missed, and his score was already higher then Lysacek could have gotten that night and just as high to what he has ever gotten internationaly(Four Continents). So no Lambiel did not need his triple axel, in fact had he fallen on his triple axel in both programs, or doubled it, and done all his other jumps he would have defended his title.

Now moving onto your other ahem "predictions", the Shen/Zhou and Savchenko/Szowkoly battle is nowhere near as close as you make it out to be. Shen/Zhou can make mistakes and still beat them. Do not be fooled by a score at Europeans, continental events like Europeans and Four Continents always receive higher scores then global and other GP events. Savchenko/Szowkoly will even be in a serious fight for the silver with the Zhangs, that will be a bigger fight then any gold medal battle. Trying to create false drama does not work since skating fans are not stupid, I appreciate to attempt to do so, but thought I would point that out to you.

I was right here too. In the short program the Germans were clean and still 4 points back of Shen/Zhou. The long would likely have doubled that even if the Germans were clean. The Germans obviously did not have room to make mistakes and even be silver as was shown when mistakes had Pang/Tong edge them for silver.

Lastly the French dance team will not medal. The judges will never let them win a world medal. Even Belbin/Agosto have a better chance to make the podium then them. The French are always destined to be a 4th or 5th place team and that should be figured out by now, but apparently not by some.

Right here too. As I said the French will always be kept off the podium, as I follow this event enough over the years to have seen that was going to happen.

 

[SeaniBu]

Toot Toot! Good job on predictions. Want to go to Vegas with me?:agree:

 

[temperboy28]

Toot Toot! Good job on predictions. Want to go to Vegas with me?:agree:

Sure sounds like fun. :agree:

 

[Mathman]

As expected I was pretty much right on everything I said...

Well let me break some reality to you -- Oda even with no quad will beat Lysacek with his 1 quad in the free skate, if both do a clean short and clean free skate, no question.

Reality: Lysacek, 222.18 (5th in short, 5th in free); Oda, 209.94 (14th in short, 6th in free). (Yeah, yeah, I know, you said “if,” LOL.)

As for Lambiel not being able to even hope for a medal without a triple axel,…

Reality: Lysacek minus his triple Axel = 225.84, Verner 226.25 for the bronze. No 3A, no medal for Stephane.

Savchenko/Szowkoly will even be in a serious fight for the silver with the Zhangs...

Reality: Savchenko/Szowkoly were in a serious fight with Pang and Tong for silver.

Lastly the French dance team will not medal. The judges will never let them win a world medal. Even Belbin/Agosto have a better chance to make the podium then them.

Reality: You’re right! By twenty-four hundredths of a point, 195.43 to 195.19. Yay!!!

...despite the distress over my post

The "distress" was caused by your lack of common courtesy to other posters -- and especially to the person who pays for this board out of her own pocket (in particular, she pays for the play-by-play reports that we have all been enjoying this year) and devotes countless hours to making Golden Skate the premier figure skating forum that it is -- not by your so-called "predictions."

 

[temperboy28]

Lysacek, 222.18 (5th in short, 5th in free); Oda, 209.94 (14th in short, 6th in free). (Yeah, yeah, I know, you said “if,” LOL.)

Oda completely bombed at Worlds. Lysacek skated respectably. The circumstances of the skates allowed for my statement to neither be proven right or wrong. That is why I did not point out I was right as it was not shown I was, nor was it shown I was wrong.

As of now though Oda's PB in the long is better with no quad, then Lysacek's would have been at Four Continents without his 1 small mistake. Neither of those things changed at Worlds.

Reality: Lysacek minus his triple Axel = 225.84, Verner 226.25 for the bronze. No 3A, no medal for Stephane.

Sorry the preview article said nothing about him missing 5 other jumps outside the triple axel, it said he needed the triple axel to hope to medal in this field period. He obviously does not unless he misses alot of his other jumps too.

Also even still you are wrong, if he falls on the triple axel he loses 4points, plus any possible GOE and PCS, not automaticaly 7.5 points, and likely not reaching that total, and if he doubles it he loses 4.2(probably gaining some in GOE for the easier jump). The only way you would be right is if he left a jumping pass out altogether and it was the triple axel, and replaced it with no other jump at all, sorry Lambiel is not Weir, he does not omit jump windows.

Reality: Savchenko/Szowkoly were in a serious fight with Pang and Tong for silver.

You are right. I got the wrong Chinese team. They still were in a serious fight for silver with a Chinese team, and never in a fight with Shen/Zhou for gold though.

Reality: You’re right! By twenty-four hundredths of a point, 195.43 to 195.19. Yay!!!

Thank you. :agree: The French are always the odd ones out, it does not matter the amount of points it is by, it has been and always will be them.

To further analyze the French and Americans each lost 1 point for an extended lift in 1 program, the Americans had a major bobble in their free dance, the French had no such problem in the OD and FD. The Americans still managed to beat them, albeit so little, after coming into the event on low momentum, and the French on high after winning Europeans. Again just spells out how much they are destined to always miss the world podium. On top of that the Russians turned out to be out of favor with the panel more then expected. So with 1 top team with a major bobble more and coming in as underdogs, another being out of favor to an unexpected degree with the panel, they still could not medal.

The "distress" was caused by your lack of common courtesy to other posters -- and especially to the person who pays for this board out of her own pocket (in particular, she pays for the play-by-play reports that we have all been enjoying this year) and devotes countless hours to making Golden Skate the premier figure skating forum that it is -- not by your so-called "predictions."

I did not know openly posting your own feelings about a preview article was such a crime, they are only my opinions. I am not going to gush over the grandness of things I dont agree with.

 

[Tonichelle]

I did not know openly posting your own feelings about a preview article was such a crime, they are only my opinions. I am not going to gush over the grandness of things I dont agree with.

It's not and never was. It's the tone you take with anyone who doesn't agree with you.

Your problem is that you lack tact. Period. And not just on this account but the other(s) you use as well.

You were told in private (PM and email) to review the Forum Guidelines and act accordingly - which you have blatantly disregarded.

 

[antmanb]

Your problem is that you lack tact. Period. And not just on this account but the other(s) you use as well.

I always wondered if temperboy was a more outrageous angry alterego to another regular poster...perhaps my suspicions were correct...do they sometimes talk to each other in posts?

Ant

 

[KwanFan1212]

do they sometimes talk to each other in posts?

LOL. Indeed they do. Posting under multiple accounts is a no-no and they know this. But being the easy-going forum that we are, we've let it ride figuring it wouldn't hurt anyone

While it's ok for two or more people to share the same computer with separate usernames, we find it disturbing that one would use both or more accounts to come across as separate entities when in actually, it's usually one person claiming to have a boyfriend, roommate, etc.

 

[antmanb]

LOL. Indeed they do. Posting under multiple accounts is a no-no and they know this. But being the easy-going forum that we are, we've let it ride figuring it wouldn't hurt anyone

While it's ok for two or more people to share the same computer with separate usernames, we find it disturbing that one would use both or more accounts to come across as separate entities when in actually, it's usually one person claiming to have a boyfriend, roommate, etc.

Wow then it must be slutskayafan then no?

If it is then that's hilarious because "they" even disagree about some skaters... ...schizophrenic or just yanking everyone's chain. I guess the give away was when they both seemed outraged at debbie thomas being overmarked...no-one else really seemed that bothered!!!

Ant