Your Oly Spoilers for Gold and Podium

[Joesitz (RIP)]

With Yagudin giving his take on the Olys, what do you think.

These are mine (Assuming Irina, Sasha, and Shizuka are a lock):

Possible Spoiler for Oly Gold. Carolina, Fumie, Ando (one of them in that order).

Possible Spoiler for Oly Podium. Kwan, Elene G, Kimmie (one of them in that order),

Yours?

Joe

 

[mzheng]

I would add JR in your spoiler list.

 

[Ptichka]

I won't say if "spoiler" applies to gold or podium, but I'll expand this into all 4 disciplines.

Pairs
Savchenko & Szolkowy
Obertas & Slavnov

Dance
Drobiazko & Vanagas
Dubreuil & Lauzon
Delobel & Schoenfelder
Chait & Sakhnovsky

Men
Klimkin
Lindemann
Weir
Lysacek

Ladies
Meissner
Gedevanishvili
Sokolova

 

[brad640]

Ladies
Emily Hughes

Men
Savoie

Pairs
Savchenko & Szolkowy

2010
Stephanie Rosenthal

 

[soogar]

After Euros, I think Klimkin is going to be a more legitimate spoiler for gold than people think. He looks really solid and hopefully the ice in the Olympics will be good and he can catch a break for a change.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Possable spoiler for Oly gold: Lambiel, Buttle, Weir(in that order)

Possable spoiler for Oly medal: Sandhu, Lysacek, Klimkin(in that order)


Possable spoiler for Oly gold: Suguri, Kostner, Kwan(in that order)

Possable spoiler for Oly medal: Ando, Rochette, Meissner(in that order)


Possable spoiler for Oly gold: Shen/Zhou, Savchenko/Szowkowlksky, Pang/Tong
(in that order)

Possable spoiler for Oly medal: Obertas/Slavnov, Inoue/Baldwin, Marcoux/
Buntin(in that order)


Possable spoiler for Oly gold: Grushina/Goncharov, Drobiazko/Vanagas

Possable spoiler for Oly medal: Dubrueil/Lauzon, Delobel/Schoenfeldner

 

[Kasey]

Brad640's siggy medal stand!

 

[PrincessLeppard]

I really only care about the men, so here we go....

Possible spoiler for Gold (assuming the favorites are Plush, Lambiel, Joubert): Johnny Weir--barring a disaster, I really can't see anyone but these four winning Gold. (okay, maybe Klimkin if he goes clean with a quad in each program)

Possible spoiler for a medal (assuming favorites are Plush, Lambiel, Joubert, Weir, Buttle)--Savoie, Lysacek, Klimkin, Takahashi and.....Li?

 

[Mathman]

Sandhu. He might be the only man to do two quads in his LP. :agree:

 

[Piel]

Are we talking if the judging is fair or if the fix are in?

 

[Jaana]

After Euros, I think Klimkin is going to be a more legitimate spoiler for gold than people think. He looks really solid and hopefully the ice in the Olympics will be good and he can catch a break for a change.

At the Olympics Klimkin is going to meet the other top guys from Europeans plus top skaters from e.g. USA, Canada and Japan. Under those circumstances the podium might be rather unlikely for him, at least in my opinion.

Possible Oly gold / men: Plushenko, Lambiel, Joubert and Sandhu

Possible Oly medal / men: Buttle, Weir, Lysacek and Takahashi

Possible Oly gold / ladies: Slutskaya, Cohen and Arakawa

Possible Oly medal / ladies: Ando, Suguri and Sokolova

 

[slutskayafan21]

Why would Sandhu have better odds than Buttle right now? I agree he could finish above him, and win something Buttle does not, but I think it is unlikely at this very moment personally.

 

[cianni]

What

OH MY Piel, are you even thinking the judging will be anything but HONEST and FAIR and the real winner will recieve the OGM. Never entered my mind. Would you even question their integrity I mean havent the cheaters been suspened an paid their debt. Now the same cheaters are back judging and you would even think they would cheat. What are we coming too here on the boards. My sarcasm is showing. The only way the fix will get nixed is if a skater blows the roof off the arena and media is breathing down their throats and then I wouldnt doubt they would be arrogant enough to follow through with their fix.

 

[kyla2]

My Picks

Joe, Carolina and Ando don't stand a snowball's chance in hell of getting the gold and Fumie's chances are only slightly better. The same with Joannie Rochette. Either Irina,Sasha or Shizuka will get the gold. Michelle I am not even adding into the mix until after she skates on the 27th.

 

[rain]

For Gold only:

Dance:
The only possibilities are B/A and F-P/M.

Pairs:
S/Z and, if T/M falter, Petrova/Tihkonov

Mens:
I really can't see anyone but Plushenko winning it right now so everyone else is a spoiler, but, if something unforseen happens.... Lambiel

Ladies:
I think Cohen, Arakawa and Slutskaya are the frontrunners, so, dark horses would be Suguri, Kostner

As for podium placements, I think there are actually a lot of legitimate contenders for medals in all the disciplines and it will be something of a crapshoot anyway, so I'm not sure if there is anybody I would really call a "dark horse."

 

[slutskayafan21]

OH MY Piel, are you even thinking the judging will be anything but HONEST and FAIR and the real winner will recieve the OGM. Never entered my mind. Would you even question their integrity I mean havent the cheaters been suspened an paid their debt. Now the same cheaters are back judging and you would even think they would cheat. What are we coming too here on the boards. My sarcasm is showing. The only way the fix will get nixed is if a skater blows the roof off the arena and media is breathing down their throats and then I wouldnt doubt they would be arrogant enough to follow through with their fix.

Actually of the last 16 OGMs how many went to a person that was "not the real winner"? In 92 the dance, pairs, and women all awarded gold to the right people clearly, the mens gold was justifiable since Petrenko had a more difficult technical program than Wylie even with a few mistakes. In 94 the dance gold perhaps went to the wrong team but Torvil/Dean had that illegal move, and Usova/Zhulin were uninspired that night(that season in fact)so perhaps the gold was justifed, the mens was a toss up and could have gone either way, the womens gold the same, and the pairs went to the rightful winners. In 98 the gold in ladies, mens, pairs, all went to the best that night, even with all the controversy over the overall dance judging was anybody other than
Gritschuk/Platov the true winners of gold? In 2002 the pairs awarded gold to the wrong people initialy clearly, the mens and womens went to the rightful winners those nights, and the dance probably did to. So of the last 16 gold medals, probably 14 of them went to the right people.

Also of the last 16 World titles awarded almost all have gone to the rightful winners. Yagudin and Slutskaya were deserved winner of the singles at the 2002 Worlds, Shen/Zhou were sloppy but on a night of subpar skates were rightful winners of 2002 Worlds, the dance possably went to the wrong team and maybe should have gone to Bourne/Kraatz. In 2003 the ladies, pairs, and dance clearly went to the rightful winners, the mens some thought Goebel was close, but Plushenko was still probably the rightful winner. In 2004 all the events had a clear winner, Shen/Zhou deservedly lost the gold with his error in the short despite a commanding win for their phenomenal free skate. In 2005 Lambiel deservedly won the mens, with her outstanding free skate Slutskaya deservedly won the womens, pairs had the right winners, and while Belbin/
Agosto may have been close to Navka/Kostomarov in the final free dance the overall decision seemed clear. So probably 15, if not all 16 golds at Worlds of the last 16 went to the rightful winners as well.

 

[cianni]

Well Well We all have opinions

You are speaking your opinion and I respect that.. I dont think FS is known as a sport with squeaky clean judging. I guess the public has the wrong perception and the sport is going down the toilet for no reason. I personally know 4 women who no longer watch because their perception is the judging is I will be nice and say suspect. The ratings show what the public thinks and what we say doesnt change it. You certainly are entitled to your opinion but to me the points these skaters are getting are so inflated its laughable. Do I think the skaters are being set up for the OGM yes I do and I hope something happens to change that like a good clean program for a change. Do I think the judging will be honest and fair absolutely not but maybe they will be forced to drop the fix and let the real winner stand up. Whoever that skater is.

 

[slutskayafan21]

You are speaking your opinion and I respect that.. I dont think FS is known as a sport with squeaky clean judging. I guess the public has the wrong perception and the sport is going down the toilet for no reason. I personally know 4 women who no longer watch because their perception is the judging is I will be nice and say suspect. The ratings show what the public thinks and what we say doesnt change it. You certainly are entitled to your opinion but to me the points these skaters are getting are so inflated its laughable. Do I think the skaters are being set up for the OGM yes I do and I hope something happens to change that like a good clean program for a change. Do I think the judging will be honest and fair absolutely not but maybe they will be forced to drop the fix and let the real winner stand up. Whoever that skater is.

Well the system is all wrong. The way the system is I can see people not trusting the winner alot of the time, even if it could seem reasonable to some when watching the skating(as you said there will be varying opinions on that as well though). You have unaminous judges scores now, some of the technical criteria is actually an improvement in the sense they have something defined atleast to try and go by now, giving specific values for elements for example, even if some disagree with what kind of elements they value. Everything else is still very subjective though, GOE scores, and certainly PCS scores. The new PCS elements are worse than the old presentation elements, things like
"performance", and "transitions", and "interpretation", give the judges too much leighway to do what they want. Atleast things like "harmonous composition of the program", "expression of the character of the music", and "utilization of the ice surace" were more definited and concrete. There should be rules over spreading judges out over a geographic region, and for judges to explain their various scores for PCS and GOE to people after events.

The way the system is now does not have enough accountability, and many aspects of it are too vague and too open to manipulation and liberation of the scores.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Joe, Carolina and Ando don't stand a snowball's chance in hell of getting the gold and Fumie's chances are only slightly better. The same with Joannie Rochette. Either Irina,Sasha or Shizuka will get the gold. Michelle I am not even adding into the mix until after she skates on the 27th.

Kyla - Did you feel that way about Hughes in 2002?
My thread is about possible spoilers (or sneak-ins, if you will) and there are many this year.

Joe

 

[hockeyfan228]

Hughes won the Olympic gold because of 6.0 and of ordinal soup. She was the reining World bronze medallist, but even more importantly, in 2001 she beat Slutskaya once in GP, and many thought she should have beaten Kwan in GP as well. That tends to give skaters capital, to be made up at the next competition. 3/3's were heavily weighted in 6.0; spins and spiral weightings were at the discretion of the judges. Hughes was the favorite for the Olympic bronze, and for silver, if either of the two favorites, Kwan or Slutskaya, slipped up, but neither women was dominant in the year leading up to SLC, and both left doubts. Slutskaya has dominated since she came back from illness, with the exception of GPF.

No one has come close to Slutskaya's scores under CoP, except Cohen under the old weightings. I think Slutskaya would have to be flat and greatly flawed, and another skater would have to skate two perfect programs with L3's and L4's and skate after Slutskaya to beat her.