Yuzuru Hanyu: 2014-15 Season | Page 466 | Golden Skate

Yuzuru Hanyu: 2014-15 Season

I hope he's preparing too for the World, but honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if he does attend the event. We all know how important this subject of March 2011 is to him, and being as sensitive as he is... but no matter, I wouldn't get mad if he does attend. We're counting the days to the World, and I'm sure he is as well, but let's not be upset and relax. As hard it is, we need to. ^^

:agree:

Since March 2011 Yuzu has been “ a man on a mission”, it seems there's a path he's walking through day by day in which everything has a precise meaning ... his life & skating are strictly connected and bonded together.. it's amazing how mature he is and still a fresh and spontaneous kid ..

GOOOOO YUZUUUU!!!:)
 
If transitions were standardized in the system like spins are, then you'd really start seeing "cookie-cutter" programs because everyone would be doing those transitions (albeit there are many different basic steps) that one, the system tells them they must do; and two, garner the most points.

Thanks for your reply.

It seems that the transitions are both rewarded in the GOEs and PCS. I sometimes wonder if they are being overly-rewarded. I would imagine judges who already reward the transitions in the GOEs would reduce the reward in the PCS (I think you would still reward them, but by less amount because you already reward them elsewhere), otherwise it would be double reward. The same transitions get rewarded twice.

I personally think the PCS are relative scores. They are not absolute scores. There are no clear enough or absolute guidelines to define the 7s, 8s and 9s. Depending on how harsh or how lenient the judges are, some judges will give 7s, and some judges will give 8s to the same performance. So I usually just pay attention to the gap between two skaters’ PCS. I believe that as long as the judging is consistent, the PCS gap would reflect the difference between the difficulty and quality of the skaters’ performance (plus a little bit of judges’ personal preferences). But if there is no standard way or clear guideline to define the difficulty, then it’s inevitable that the PCS gap will get inflated with skaters’ reputation gap. E.g. a 0.25 bonus in every component (x5, then x2 in factoring) becomes a 2.5 pt difference in PCS in the free skate; a 0.5 bonus in every component becomes a 5 pt difference in PCS. I mean it’s pretty easy to inflate it, and reputation judging is pretty much the root of the majority of the judging controversies.

At least to me, if the PCS gap is 10 points, mathematically, this means the lower-score skater needs to have an extra quad to be considered the same as the higher-score skater. The judges probably don’t mean it this way, but that’s the mathematical implication. So, say two skaters have two quads and two 3As, and the rest of the elements are similar and they have equally good or equally bad execution. The only difference between them is the amount of transitions. If the PCS gap is 10 points, then the lower-score skater needs to have at least 3 quads to catch up to the other skater. I think that a 10 point gap in PCS is pretty common between a reputable skater and a skater with little reputation, even when the tech content and execution quality are very similar. I don’t know how much the transitions can justify that 10 point gap. I certainly don’t think you can justify that gap with perceived difference between the two skaters’ artistry. Artistry is too subjective. I personally think that artistry can only justify about 1 point, at most 2 points of the PCS. I was thinking, with everything else equal, the difficult transitions can only justify 5-7 points of the PCS gap at most. The rest of the gap is due to the skaters’ reputation and judges’ preferences.

I know it’s most likely not practical to have a standard way to rate the difficulty of transitions. However, if you want to minimize the influence of reputation and to create fair judging, a standard way to judge the difficulty is probably a must. (The TES standardize the base value, so it’s usually pretty hard to debate the tech score, although sometimes the GOEs can get inflated.However, winning based on PCS only is almost always debatable.) But the downside is that everything is so standardized, that everybody ends up doing the same thing. That’s the trade-off you have to consider as a rule maker.

It seems that there are two main ways to game the system.

1) Add lots, lots and lots of transitions to the program. Even if you don’t skate the best, your PCS won’t drop as much because all those transitions will keep your PCS high. E.g. Patrick and Javi. Both of them get close to 90 PCS even when they have relatively poor performances. The good thing about this strategy is that you will be consistently on the podium because your score will always be somewhat decent; and when you skate well, the PCS goes up significantly. So, it’s a safe strategy to get good score, more ups than downs. But the bad thing is that, it’s very difficult to be consistent and skate clean, and almost everybody would think you are over-scored, and there is really no way for your fans to justify your score convincingly. I hope Yuzu doesn’t use this strategy. It would be painful to see him getting the backlash.

2) If you have the technical prowess, then you can add a medium number of transitions to the program. It’s easier to skate clean and be more consistent, and you can raise the tech content in the future. Your PCS goes up when you skate well and goes down when you skate poorly. The score goes up and down equally. The good thing about this strategy is that the scores are more reasonable and can be justified, although you will still get some reputation bonus. I feel that Liza is using this strategy. Yuzu seems to be using this strategy too (at least this season).

You can also choose to have no transitions. But the bad thing about this strategy is that if your jumps fail, there is nothing left in your program and your PCS scores goes down significantly. If you execute your jumps well, your PCS goes up, but probably not by that much because your jumps are already rewarded in TES. So the score will have more downs than ups. So this doesn’t seem like a good strategy. I guess skaters only use this strategy if their skating skills are not yet very solid.

It’s been pretty quiet recently. We haven’t heard anything about Yuzu lately. I guess no news is good news.
 
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gsysf's post us too long to quote but here aee my thoughts:

I agree that Yuzu seems to be going the medium-level transitions, at least in the FS. I suppose he cares much about having cleanish programs rather than 2 falls or low GOE's on elements and is aware that he has little chance to go cleanish with a program packed with transitions given his injuries and lack of training.

I think that the strategy of oacking a program chock-full of transitions wouldn't work very well to get high PCS, though. It's just one of the components. One interesting thing Javi said in his interview is that when his skating abilities grew, the difficulty of his programs grew. I think he was talking about transitions. So it seeems one needs good skating skills in order to perform the transitions well and not have them totally ruin the quality of the elements. I think the judges would notice if someone was doing transitions for the sake of doing transitions and wouldn't be impressed. (To be honest, I think Javi miscalculated his skills and the amount of transitions because apparently they are what prevented him from performing even one really good program.Seriously, if you look at the four skates he had, you won't be able to tell what his intended layout is because he skated something different each time. Lol, that should go into Javi thread.) After all it would take Patrick Chan's skills, o
probably, to impress judges with transitions alone anough to significantly raise PCS.

I think it was you, gsyzf, who hypothetized that judges might look at the diffiuculty of the program including jumps, and get a picture if the PCS they'd give, and the add or subtract points accordingly to how it was skated. In that case, no amount of transitions would raise PCS significantly, if they routinely ruined the elements.And if the skater went for easier elements in order not to have them ruined, the "starting PCS" would be lower. Not a good strategy either way.

Heh, as if I knew what I was talking about anyway. :biggrin:
 
The amount of transitions in Yuzuru's R&J 2.0 is insane. And both his PW and Chopin SP are packed with difficult moves. The current POTO has less transitions because of Yuzuru's health condition this season, especially after the collision.
And Shae-lynn herself also said POTO is actually not completed. So if Yuzuru is healthy, his POTO or even Chopin might actually be jampacked again.
 
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Sorry for the long post. Yes, I do hypothesize that judges would take into consideration both difficulty and quality, and I do have a reason. I don’t know what the judges think in their mind. But I am assuming the ISU wants to provide fair judging and encourage skaters to push the technical limit. So judging based on both difficulty and quality is the most logical and fair way to judge. I don’t know if there is any other better way to judge to achieve this.

I am assuming most of us here had been a student, or is currently a student or teacher. How can you assess a student’s skills? You can give them a test. Whoever gets more questions right is the better student. But if you want to challenge the students, and you offer them two tests, one is a standard test and another is twice as hard. So if student A took test 1 and student B took test 2, and both answered everything correctly, what score would you give the students? Would you give them both 100? Would that be fair to student B who took the test that is twice as difficult? You would need to double the score for student B for compensate the difficulty. So student B would get 200 and student A gets 100. Student B is a better student than student A because he can complete a harder test well. It’s possible student A is equally smart as student B, if not smarter, but there is no way to assess that unless he also takes the harder test. In fact, if student B only answered 80% of the test correctly, the teacher would give a higher score (160) to him than student A. If student B actually gets 80 and student A gets 100, then student B will never take the hard test again. There is no incentive for him to take the hard test because it is always more difficult to answer the harder questions correctly than to answer the easy questions correctly. In fact, taking a harder test with some minor mistakes will score higher than taking a much easier test with no mistakes, if you really want the students to challenge themselves.


So, I think the same principle applies to the skaters. Skaters who do a harder program tend to be better skaters. For skaters who have programs of the same difficulty, you can just compare the quality between them. If the skaters have execute with the same quality, but programs have difficulty levels, then the skater that has a harder program scores higher. But if the programs have different difficulty and quality, then you have to adjust the score according to both the difficulty and quality. Most likely, extremely difficulty programs with minor mistakes (as long as it’s not a disaster) will score higher than easy programs with no mistake.


Of course, if the ISU does not want to have fair judging and encourage technical progress, then all my hypothesis and analysis goes out of the window.

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ETA:
I meant executed difficulty, not planned difficulty because judges can only score the executed moves. I think Patrick and Javi did mess up, but they didn’t totally bomb their programs. They still executed most of the difficulty elements. So the executed difficulty is still high. I believe most skaters would only choose to skate difficult programs when they have the skills and ability, which means the difficulty of the programs is somewhat correlated with the skaters’ skills. On the other hand, highly-skilled skaters can choose to skate to an easy program, but I don’t think they will get very high scores because you need to show your skills. You may have excellent skills, but skating an easy program doesn’t really show too much of your skills. Judges cannot just give you high scores for your potential. That would not be fair to other skaters who executed much harder programs.

If you look at the judges’ PCS scores, they tend to stay in the same range. Each component does not vary too much from each other. I think that actually supports my hypothesis that the judges value difficulty. The current judging system actually values difficulty much more than quality. The GOEs are capped at +3 (also with reduced factoring) and the PCS is capped at a “corridor”. It’s not intuitive to see why the judging system values difficulty over quality. But if you consider that the goal is to encourage technical progress, then it actually makes sense. If you give too much value over quality, then it’s possible to for an easy program to enormous GOES and PCS bonus to score much higher than a difficult program. You will end up with “play-it-safe” champions and the champions would not have an incentive to up their tech content. By limiting the quality scores, it’s possible for new rivals to challenge the champions with more difficulty programs, and that would force the champions to up their tech content. So my conclusion is, you cannot win by play-it-safe, unless all your rivals who have more difficult programs bomb.

I assume the ISU wants to create fair judging and encourage technical program due to what happened in 2002 (scandal) and 2010 (quad controversy). I don’t think the ISU wants to see technical regression again. That would ruin the credibility of the sport. So all these rules in the judging were created to ensure that won’t happen again. I think that’s why difficulty is valued so much in the judging, and mistakes are not punished as harshly as before, and good quality is not valued too highly either.

I personally think the rules make a lot of sense if you think from the perspective of incentives and the goal ISU is trying to achieve. It’s not intuitive for me to see flawed skates to score higher than clean skates. But I came to understand why they would choose to judge this way, so it doesn’t bother me too much.

I might be the minority who thinks this way though.

gsysf's post us too long to quote but here aee my thoughts:

I agree that Yuzu seems to be going the medium-level transitions, at least in the FS. I suppose he cares much about having cleanish programs rather than 2 falls or low GOE's on elements and is aware that he has little chance to go cleanish with a program packed with transitions given his injuries and lack of training.

I think that the strategy of oacking a program chock-full of transitions wouldn't work very well to get high PCS, though. It's just one of the components. One interesting thing Javi said in his interview is that when his skating abilities grew, the difficulty of his programs grew. I think he was talking about transitions. So it seeems one needs good skating skills in order to perform the transitions well and not have them totally ruin the quality of the elements. I think the judges would notice if someone was doing transitions for the sake of doing transitions and wouldn't be impressed. (To be honest, I think Javi miscalculated his skills and the amount of transitions because apparently they are what prevented him from performing even one really good program.Seriously, if you look at the four skates he had, you won't be able to tell what his intended layout is because he skated something different each time. Lol, that should go into Javi thread.) After all it would take Patrick Chan's skills, o
probably, to impress judges with transitions alone anough to significantly raise PCS.

I think it was you, gsyzf, who hypothetized that judges might look at the diffiuculty of the program including jumps, and get a picture if the PCS they'd give, and the add or subtract points accordingly to how it was skated. In that case, no amount of transitions would raise PCS significantly, if they routinely ruined the elements.And if the skater went for easier elements in order not to have them ruined, the "starting PCS" would be lower. Not a good strategy either way.

Heh, as if I knew what I was talking about anyway. :biggrin:
 
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I personally think the PCS are relative scores

At least to me, if the PCS gap is 10 points, mathematically, this means the lower-score skater needs to have an extra quad to be considered the same as the higher-score skater. The judges probably don’t mean it this way, but that’s the mathematical implication. So, say two skaters have two quads and two 3As, and the rest of the elements are similar and they have equally good or equally bad execution. The only difference between them is the amount of transitions. If the PCS gap is 10 points, then the lower-score skater needs to have at least 3 quads to catch up to the other skater. I think that a 10 point gap in PCS is pretty common between a reputable skater and a skater with little reputation, even when the tech content and execution quality are very similar. I don’t know how much the transitions can justify that 10 point gap. I certainly don’t think you can justify that gap with perceived difference between the two skaters’ artistry. Artistry is too subjective. I personally think that artistry can only justify about 1 point, at most 2 points of the PCS. I was thinking, with everything else equal, the difficult transitions can only justify 5-7 points of the PCS gap at most. The rest of the gap is due to the skaters’ reputation and judges’ .

This might be a nitpick, transitions or 'artistry'pcs would not commonly, or even rarely result in a ten point gap between to international level skaters, 10 points gap happens from a point deficit across all the pcs categories, never one (though a lot of judges seem to have difficultly scoring categories differently for one skater.- to add to your list of gaming the system, be outstanding in one category you'll get a bye for the others) If you were to compare a basic skater with 0 transitions to a int level skater like javi, then theres definitely a scale where a 1 quad deficit and more is justifiable. IA pcs are relative, though.
 
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10 points gap happens from a point deficit across all the pcs categories, never one (though a lot of judges seem to have difficultly scoring categories differently for one skater.- to add to your list of gaming the system, be outstanding in one category you'll get a bye for the others.

Yes, I meant 10 point gap spread over the 5 components, so on average, it’s a 1 point gap in each component. I didn’t mean one skater gets 0 for transition and another skater gets 10 for transition. I actually don’t think judges have difficulty scoring different categories differently. I just think they value difficulty over quality, so they don’t give too much bonus for good quality and deduct little for low quality. (I explained this in my previous post. It’s a long post.) I think judges that score different component very differently value quality over difficulty, which IMO is not a fair way to judge. (I also explained this in my previous post.)

I actually think the PCS score is very much a tech score, with maybe 10% to 20% related to artistry.

This might be a nitpick, transitions or 'artistry'pcs would not commonly, or even rarely result in a ten point gap between to international level skaters.

Not very good examples, in European championship in this year, all the men did terrible, but Javi had over 10 point PCS gap over the next skater Kovton. Both were pretty messy. I think Kovton executed higher base value with lower quality. I think he had a lot less transitions than Javi. But Javi's transitions are already partially rewarded in the GOEs. In 2011 world championship, Patrick had 10 point PCS gap over the next skater Kozuka, even though Kozuka had similar BV, higher GOEs than Patrick. I would think Kozuka had similar skills as Patrick back then. I cannot compare their transitions. I can’t tell.
 
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:yes: I figured I'd just been understanding you wrong. I like your post about difficultly. Though I still think there's carryover between pcs.
Regarding 2011 world's I think I'm too biased for my opinion to be worth much:biggrin:
 
Hi guys! I'm new here. I'm very happy that Yuzu's thread is so lively. I enjoy reading you guys very much!
 
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By the way, I've been surfing the Internet recently and found a very interesting interview with Yuzuru. It was taken when he was 17 years old. He talks about his move to Canada, about his mother, what he does immediately after getting up in the morning. If someone translates it I will be very grateful! I've never seen this interview posted here before. Thanks in advance!
link to the interview
 
After watching ISU's the 'What's in my bag' series, I really want to see yuzuru introduce what's in his bag to us :bang: !!! Looking forward to his 'A moment with......' episode..... :party:
 
:yes: I figured I'd just been understanding you wrong. I like your post about difficultly. Though I still think there's carryover between pcs.
Regarding 2011 world's I think I'm too biased for my opinion to be worth much:biggrin:

I would also think that there are most likely some carryover effects, due to the psychologically on the judges mind. The “corridor” most likely would’ve been wider if there are no carryover effects. But if people are looking for very big variations like 9 in skating skill, 5 in transition, 7 in performance/execution, I don’t think that’s going to happen.

I wish some fans would stop complaining that falls are not punished enough. The current rules are not the most ideal, but there are no better alternatives, unless you want to go back to the quadless era. As a rule maker, you have to consider how athletes will respond to the incentive created by the rules and whether they respond the way you want them to.

In the 6.0 system, it rewards difficult jumps and clean performances, but no explicit/sufficient reward for anything else. The skaters in this era only need to execute the difficult jumps and be clean. They don’t need to be an all-round skater.

2007-2010, the COP gives explicit value to every non-jump element (to ensure fairness). It rewards difficult jumps and punishes mistakes harshly. Basically, the ISU wants fairness, rewards all-around skater, difficulty and cleanness. The problem is that it seems like there is a limit to the human body. Skaters cannot be all-around, execute quads and have clean programs consistently. They cannot satisfy all three requirements at the same time; they can only satisfy two requirements at a time. So, we ended up with quadless champions who are all-around skaters and skate clean.

Post 2010, the COP reduced the deductions. So we have champions who are all-around skaters with multiple quads, but rarely skate clean. TBH, if I were the ISU, I would’ve made the same change. It’s better to lose some viewers than to lose the credibility of the sport.

I actually don’t think falls are the biggest problems in the judging. Reputation judging is a bigger problem. The reason I asked about the difficulty of the transitions is not because I think they are super-important in determining the PCS, but because they are the only moves in the entire program that do not have standard values, which make them most subject to reputation bias.

(I probably talked too much about this. Sorry)
 
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