Yuzuru Hanyu: 2015-16 Season | Page 279 | Golden Skate

Yuzuru Hanyu: 2015-16 Season

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Pamigena said:
Someone had asked what place Yuzu would need at NHK to qualify for the GPF. I've been over some numbers :) But no guarantees that my numbers are correct. I'm usually not really a numbers gal, so if you think you found a mistake, feel free to point it out ;)

A 3rd place would already be a 100% guarantee for a spot at the final, because that would mean 13+11 = 24 points, which means he's in. 5th place would be really bad, because then he's at 13+7= 20 points, which means he's underneath Chan and Dai, and then he's most likely out.
So no matter what the other guys do at NHK, Yuzuru needs to finish atleast in 4th place. That would earn him 13+9 =22 points,which puts him at the same level as Chan and Dai.
Looking at the first tiebreaker it would be
Chan(1st place at SC)
Yuzu (2nd place at SC)
Daisuke (3rd place at SC)
(That would most likely have the additional advantage of putting Daisuke in 7th place, which would mean that he gets to go as well :biggrin: hooray)

I've been through some scenarios, but as far as I can see, there's only one outcome that could make a 4th place finish dangerous for him:

1.Menshov (7+15=22)
2.Hochstein(9+13=22)
3.Boyang OR Kovtun(13+11=24)
4.Yuzu(13+9=22)
5.Boyang OR Kovtun(13+7=20)

Then the list for the first 5 finalists for the GPF would be

30 Points Javier
28 Points Shoma
24 Points Boyang or Kovtun (one of them would be out)
22 Points Chan (1stat SC)
22 Points Menshov (1st at NHK)

And next in line would be
22 Points Hochstein (2nd at NHK)
22 Points Yuzuru (2nd at SC)

In that case the SP tiebreaker would decide if Yuzu or Hochstein gets the 6th spot (and Dai would be out because he'd be in 8th place and there's no special 8th place invitation this year)

So, if I don't have all this completely wrong: If he finishes 3rd, he's in no matter what. And if he finishes at least 4th, he's still in unless Menshov finishes 1st and Hochstein finishes 2nd, because then the second tiebreaker might break his neck. (additional bonus: Dai gets to keep his spot as the 7th entry as long as no more than 1 skater walks out of NHK with exactly 22 points. But the chances of that are actually not all that high either.)

If you find any mistakes don't keep them but let me know please :biggrin:
Click to expand...

Oh thank you Pamina . I always admire people able to do the maths with GP points, possible scenarios, I'm absolutely unable to do this. So I will believe you blindly :laugh:
 
zebobes said:
It's hard to tell from the video, but it does look like the 4t-3t is placed where the spins used to be in the first half.

Sigh. I really liked the way the program used to be constructed. Oh well. The jumps look great, though.
Click to expand...

i think they are playing the music in the backgroud, its same with LP run through :think:
 
The jumps look great, but SC run through was also very good, so I can only hope for the best this time. Just believe in yourself Yuzu, you can do it! :hap10:
 
alia jackson said:
^^ Could i check if 4s, 4t-3t, 3a....if he missed the 3t in first combo he cannot insert anywhere?

If the layout is 4t-3t, 4s, 3a ...if he missed the 3t in first combo can he insert a 3t or 2t as combo with 4s?
Click to expand...

If he missed the supposedly combo jump, he couldn't possibly insert it anywhere else since there's only 3A left.. that's why it seems risky that way. However, if the combination is put as the first jump pass, then it's much safer technically.
But yea idk if he's done combo with 4S before (I don't think so?) so idk the prospect of it (if it's better to put it that way).
 
Perdita said:
I just saw it in a TV footage and... :jaw: I first thought the anchorman mistook FS with SP...
But I feel like it's securer than lutz right now...
Click to expand...

True but actually quite crazy when you think about it lol.
Do you guys think that his lutz problems could have come from his work on the 4Lz ?
I know that my salchow became very bad for a while after I started working on the double.. So I wondered if that could be a factor. :think:
 
ElenaClaire said:
If he missed the supposedly combo jump, he couldn't possibly insert it anywhere else since there's only 3A left.. that's why it seems risky that way. However, if the combination is put as the first jump pass, then it's much safer technically.
But yea idk if he's done combo with 4S before (I don't think so?) so idk the prospect of it (if it's better to put it that way).
Click to expand...

The BV of 4T3T is 3.3 pts higher than the BV of 2nd half 3Lz3T. So even if he had a poor landing on 4T and missed the second jump of the combination,n it's better than a fall of 3Lz3T.
 
Lindacrow said:
New 3 (SP run through footage): http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3flzgb_151126-3-前日公式練習news-3_sport

Spread Eagle sandwich for the 4S!
Click to expand...

Looking good right there!! :clap:

Also, idk I think we can't really pinpoint yet as to in which point/part of music the combo jump pass is because the music kinda overlays the clip, as in it's not really matched with the moves shown (because of editing).
Ah if only we get the practice session recorded and streamed like before..

shyne said:
The BV of 4T3T is 3.3 pts higher than the BV of 2nd half 3Lz3T. So even if he had a poor landing on 4T and missed the second jump of the combination,n it's better than a fall of 3Lz3T.
Click to expand...

Ah yes I understand that but isn't there supposed to be one jump combination in the SP? I mean if he missed the second jump then it'll only be 4T right.. so he'll have 3 single jump passes. Correct me if I got your point wrong.
But if it happens (wonky landing) and he still manages to sneak single or double toe then it'll be ok.
 
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ElenaClaire said:
Looking good right there!! :clap:

Also, idk I think we can't really pinpoint yet as to in which point/part of music the combo jump pass is because the music kinda overlays the clip, as in it's not really matched with the moves shown (because of editing).
Ah if only we get the practice session recorded and streamed like before..



Ah yes I understand that but isn't there supposed to be one jump combination in the SP? I mean if he missed the second jump then it'll only be 4T right.. so he'll have 3 single jump passes. Correct me if I got your point wrong.
But if it happens (wonky landing) and he still manages to sneak single or double toe then it'll be ok.
Click to expand...

I think that, if the combo is missing, one jumping pass would have a 70% BV, but it wouldn't be invalid
 
Is this combo 4T-3T? This looks like in TCC, but I don't remember this 4T-3T shown in the Toronto training video back in August. I wonder whether they went to TCC again after SC to tape this :think:
 
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xibsuarz said:
I think that, if the combo is missing, one jumping pass would have a 70% BV, but it wouldn't be invalid
Click to expand...

Oh right.. I think I remember reading about that but wasn't sure if it applies for the short.. :agree2:

alia jackson said:
Is this combo 4T-3T? This looks like in TCC, but I don't remember this 4T-3T shown in the Toronto training video back in August. I wonder whether they went to TCC again after SC to tape this :think:
Click to expand...

It's 3A-3T combo in TCC. :)
 
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ElenaClaire said:
Oh right.. I think I remember reading about that but wasn't sure if it applies for the short.. :agree2:
Click to expand...

For the short, one jump MUST be in combination or it will be 0 points.

For example if in the SP Yuzu jumps:
4S
4T
3A

the 4T will be invalid if not jumped with a combo.
It can be 4T-3t or 2t or even 1t (I think?) and be validated as a combo. 2t-2t will not count as no more than one double jump is allowed in the SP
 
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