Yuzuru Hanyu: 2016-17 Season

[Fayruza]

I sometimes wish he weren't No.1 in the world, he weren't expected to excel every single time he skates. I wonder if it'd take the weight off his shoulder and make him free.
I really enjoy just seeing him skate even with faults. When he's impeccable, he's otherworldly.

 

[Fayruza]

:giveup:

Can we all please just slow down? Yes, we're all anxious but if we continue like this we'll just end up with lots of not nice feelings, even to each other and it's not worth it. It's just emotions running high.

So lets see with good old numbers. They don't lie. Then we can see what's realistic, likely or unlikely. So could someone please just spit out the BVs, I'll run the rest of the numbers, no problem.

Oh, we'll forgive each other once the competition is over. Nothing can be worse than last year's Worlds when soul-searching went on for hundreds of posts... we still talk to each other.

 

[sallycinnamon]

Any thoughts about his skating order for the FS? He has to skate before Nathan...

I think it's not bad, 5th is definitely better than 1st or 2nd, and he skates after Shoma, so it's ok. Nathan will feel the pressure a lot, as a last skater, as the leader, as the one who has the fight all the Poohs right after Yuzu

 

[Meoima]

If both are clean Yuzuru will win and Nathan gap in sp wont help, you had trainings with isu specialists, you should know how it will work

Patrick can still nail a clean LP and score huge and Yuzuru can still mess LP. But anyway, even before Patrick, there's top 2.
If you look at all of their BV you will see that Yuzuru has lowest BV among top 3. Yes he can get higher GOE and PCS than Nathan BUT he has lower BV and it might be crucial.
Shoma already get the same GOE and BV as Yuzuru, only a bit lower but he can get near that, 1 or 2 points gap in PCS don't make a big difference especially Yuzuru is behind in the SP.
Do I agree with the GOE and PCS for such horrible amount of crossovers and lesser quality for them? I don't but that's the reality.
The chance of Nathan and Shoma and even Patrick go clean in LP is higher than Yuzuru, especially when Yuzuru keeps that 4S3T in the second half. New entry or not, it's still a big risk.
Yes Yuzuru does have some advantage in GOE and PCS but not as huge as some of you believe.

 

[daphenaxa]

He's under an insane amount of pressure, but I have faith he will pull thru. And 4cc is probably the best place for him to learn to work through these issues

does Yuzu work with a sport psychologist to deal with the pressure? does someone know?
I am wondering because i think Yuzu is actually a good competitor in general but it is true he has showed signs of struggles to deal with the insane media/fan pressure but also the insane self-imposed pressure from what I understand.
I was thinking about that watching the small interview on the Javier documentary where he says he owes Javier his victories because when he gets tensed, Javier says something funny and it helps him relax. Tbh that a bit of an unreliable method!

(note: it's a general question, i don't think Yuzu had a meltdown or that he did that bad)

 

[stormblade]

Before someone sends me into a state of panic can we please do the math? My head is killing me so I don't remember a thing and I'm not counting from the start

Numbers don't lie so can someone who is coherent enough right now just write up Nathan's and Shoma's BV and Yuzuru's BV?
Currently we're at Nathan vs Shoma vs Yuzuru

103.12 vs 100.28 and 97.04

Nathan's PCS should go to 90 for sure (if not higher to 91). Shoma scores what, 93? And for Yuzuru, he had 96 with the iffy GPF skate. Because yes looking like that, it'll be really tight but doable.

https://twitter.com/magicaleggrolls/status/831664024614006785

This post delineates the BV's quite plainly.

Yuzu Total BV: 87.53
Shoma Total BV: 89.04 (+1.51)
Nathan Total BV: 91.96 (+4.43)

Assuming your projected PCS (assume he nails everything but it's not perfect)
Yuzu: 87.53 + 96 = 183.53
Shoma: 89.04 + 93 = 182.04
Nathan: 91.96 + 91 = 181.96

Excluding GOE (b/c I don't know how to calculate GOE...), a relatively-perfect Yuzu has a 3-4 point advantage at most, which is not enough to overcome the 7 point lead Nathan currently has. Assume Yuzu gets a boost from PCS, it's still going to be very tight. We're talking tenths of points here.

 

[cherryncy]

Before someone sends me into a state of panic can we please do the math? My head is killing me so I don't remember a thing and I'm not counting from the start

Numbers don't lie so can someone who is coherent enough right now just write up Nathan's and Shoma's BV and Yuzuru's BV?
Currently we're at Nathan vs Shoma vs Yuzuru

103.12 vs 100.28 and 97.04

Nathan's PCS should go to 90 for sure (if not higher to 91). Shoma scores what, 93? And for Yuzuru, he had 96 with the iffy GPF skate. Because yes looking like that, it'll be really tight but doable.

Requoting this because I'm not a Maths person at all.

To all: have high hopes and keep expectation low. That's the spirit.

 

[teeannroo]

I hope Brian won't try to block him from seeing other skater's skates and scores for the LP because it seem a other fire him up and perhaps a WR might come into sight

 

[alia jackson]

I don't think Yuzu has a meltdown either, but I think some fans have

Like Marin I'm just thankful that we could see Yuzu skate this season after that horrible injury. And above all I just want him to healthy. And I cannot wait to see him for the first time at Helsinki.

Gambatte Yuzu..just do your best

 

[Lindacrow]

Well, you can calculate possible scores, but from what I know, Yuzu is never out of the conversation for first, any competitor who thinks they are safely in first with Yuzu in the comp needs to rethink.

Looking forward to the LP!

 

[YuzusHydroblade]

Patrick can still nail a clean LP and score huge and Yuzuru can still mess LP. But anyway, even before Patrick, there's top 2.
If you look at all of their BV you will see that Yuzuru has lowest BV among top 3. Yes he can get higher GOE and PCS than Nathan BUT he has lower BV and it might be crucial.
Shoma already get the same GOE and BV as Yuzuru, only a bit lower but he can get near that, 1 or 2 points gap in PCS don't make a big difference especially Yuzuru is behind in the SP.
Do I agree with the GOE and PCS for such horrible amount of crossovers and lesser quality for them? I don't but that's the reality.
The chance of Nathan and Shoma and even Patrick go clean in LP is higher than Yuzuru, especially when Yuzuru keeps that 4S3T in the second half. New entry or not, it's still a big risk.
Yes Yuzuru does have some advantage in GOE and PCS but not as huge as some of you believe.

Hm, somehow i don't see Patrick as a threat here...

 

[Meoima]

https://twitter.com/magicaleggrolls/status/831664024614006785

This post delineates the BV's quite plainly.

Yuzu Total BV: 87.53
Shoma Total BV: 89.04 (+1.51)
Nathan Total BV: 91.96 (+4.43)

Assuming your projected PCS (assume he nails everything but it's not perfect)
Yuzu: 87.53 + 96 = 183.53
Shoma: 89.04 + 93 = 182.04
Nathan: 91.96 + 91 = 181.96

Excluding GOE (b/c I don't know how to calculate GOE...), a relatively-perfect Yuzu has a 3-4 point advantage at most, which is not enough to overcome the 7 point lead Nathan currently has. Assume Yuzu gets a boost from PCS, it's still going to be very tight. We're talking tenths of points here.

If all goes clean, his advantage in GOE and PCS might not be enough. The math is there. But it's too late to add new quad on Sunday. And even if he YOLO new quad, it might be a mess.

 

[YuzusHydroblade]

https://twitter.com/magicaleggrolls/status/831664024614006785

This post delineates the BV's quite plainly.

Yuzu Total BV: 87.53
Shoma Total BV: 89.04 (+1.51)
Nathan Total BV: 91.96 (+4.43)

Assuming your projected PCS (assume he nails everything but it's not perfect)
Yuzu: 87.53 + 96 = 183.53
Shoma: 89.04 + 93 = 182.04
Nathan: 91.96 + 91 = 181.96

Excluding GOE (b/c I don't know how to calculate GOE...), a relatively-perfect Yuzu has a 3-4 point advantage at most, which is not enough to overcome the 7 point lead Nathan currently has. Assume Yuzu gets a boost from PCS, it's still going to be very tight. We're talking tenths of points here.

Another Kuyashii medal then, in case he wins it.
I don't know which is worse

 

[Danibellerika]

Whoa are we really going there? Thinking of Bronze as his only possibility?
I don't feel like he skated particularly bad, or that he will have a meltdown and skate so bad at the FS... Sure, i was surprised at the popped sal and everything, but i don't feel like it was that bad...
He might look irritated, could it be because he was too confident? It was really rare to see him like that.
To be honest i'm not expecting a perfect skate, i doubt he is going to nail that Combo of Doom.
A shame, i really wanted him to add the 4cc gold to his collection, but if that means he will be more prepared for World's then i guess i'm ok...
(Still it's hard to shake the "I WANT HIM TO WIN EVERYTHING" feeling... I guess i'll have to live with that hahaha)

For expectations it's always nice to come from a place where you are pleasantly surprised than sorely disappointed. All I have to go on from watching him in person is his Boston LP, so I don't think I can ever feel comfortable again about what Yuzu we are going to get. I'll always love his skating, but as a competitor he is more of a mixed bag and I am accepting that and won't psych myself up to expect him to win every time. It's just that when he IS clean, he wins. And he IS capable. But the sport evolves and we are arriving to a place where maybe that won't always be enough. But him executing a fantastic program where he is pleased with his efforts is win enough for me. I'm hoping that since I can go to worlds and see the practices and SP and LP too that I have plenty of chances to see him be brilliant somewhere (though if I had to choose I want it to be the short because it's my favorite).

 

[mcq]

Honestly, I am the opposite. I don't see this relaxed approach as a bad thing.
Just because he did well at NHK and GPF 15, doesn't mean everything and every approach he did there should be repeated and is exemplary/ how things should be done. He skated through injuries there. He overtrained. Leading to Boston and a worsened injury that put him off-ice for months. He got depressed because of it. He has this belief that he could skate through injuries and that he is strong enough for it. And he does, sometimes he manages and he wins, but everyone has its limits before they break. It happened to him last season
I would say the same thing about his approach with pressure and stress. It might work for him to get some wins, but not all the time. It doesn't help him at the olympics or at worlds. Frankly, like physical health, there should be a limit too for mental well-being being subjected to constant pressure and stress. There should be a healthy balance of it.
I don't see why not beating himself up after a sub-par skate or a loss is seen as something alarming. I, in fact, are happy if he manage to genuinely be calm and look past bad skates. If he could really work on finally managing to be genuinely happy and positive when he had a bad skate and losing, I would say this is something I prefer to see rather than winning but being so bummed and crestfallen like how he was at Nats last year for example.

 

[Lindacrow]

I wonder how the 4Lo will play out in the FS. This is the first time multiple 4Lo will be attempted by the competitors. I hope his loyalty to the 4Lo will be rewarded here

 

[wookchub]

If Yuzu skates clean I honestly couldn't care less where he places. I just want to see that beautiful program clean!!

 

[stormblade]

Well, you can calculate possible scores, but from what I know, Yuzu is never out of the conversation for first, any competitor who thinks they are safely in first with Yuzu in the comp needs to rethink.

Looking forward to the LP!

I agree, but I do think numbers are "somewhat" helpful to a degree to get a sense of the size of the hill Yuzu is up against. But statistics is not equivalent to probability. Anything can happen. All we can do (and should do) is cheer Yuzu on and hope he enjoys his skate. All the medals in the world are worthless if you don't enjoy the skating.

 

[twitwi]

hey, guys, talking about GOE, actually yuzu got more than 10 in SP for his one quad, one 3A, one 2+3 program, and the other two got 6+.

If you want do the math, do it correctly.

 

[mcq]

https://twitter.com/magicaleggrolls/status/831664024614006785

This post delineates the BV's quite plainly.

Yuzu Total BV: 87.53
Shoma Total BV: 89.04 (+1.51)
Nathan Total BV: 91.96 (+4.43)

Assuming your projected PCS (assume he nails everything but it's not perfect)
Yuzu: 87.53 + 96 = 183.53
Shoma: 89.04 + 93 = 182.04
Nathan: 91.96 + 91 = 181.96

Excluding GOE (b/c I don't know how to calculate GOE...), a relatively-perfect Yuzu has a 3-4 point advantage at most, which is not enough to overcome the 7 point lead Nathan currently has. Assume Yuzu gets a boost from PCS, it's still going to be very tight. We're talking tenths of points here.

This is jump BV. Not total BV. This is where you get it wrong. There are spins level and steps level which in my opinion he excels at. He got high GOEs on jumps and steps and spins. I don't know why you are trying to make it complicated though

Here an easier one. Nathan's TES at US NATIONAL : 121 PCS : 91
Yuzuru's TES at GPF 15 with just 3 quads : 120 PCS : 98.5 (again this is just a 3-quad program).
Yuzuru's TES at NHK : 118 PCS : 97
So, yes he still has a chance even when his rival is clean as long as he does too. It is just simple math. Yuzu's PB FS score with 3 quads : 219, Nathan's PB (nats) score with 5 quads: 212. It is not that complicated