Which man will break out in 2014-2015?

[Mrs. P]

I think there are different levels of breaking out. I think the level of breaking out into world medal contention is what we're discussing here.


Here's how I see it:

The major contenders are: Yuzuru Hanyu, Tatsuki Machida, Denis Ten and Javier Fernandez. Also Patrick Chan if he opts to return in 2015.

The (relative) newbies to watch: Maxim Kovtun, Han Yan, Jason Brown, Max Aaron, Joshua Farris, Nam Nguyen

The comeback veterans (those who held top six finishes previously (highest finish): Takahiko Kouzka (2nd), Artur Gachinski (3rd), Michel Brezina (4th), Florent Amodio (5th), Kevin Reynolds (5th) and Jeremy Abbott (5th).

 

[Wo|flax]

I feel the need to say, in the 3A thread I mistakenly said Kovtun was more consistent on his 3A this season, because I remembered someone else saying he landed all his 3As this season, but apparently that was a lie (or they conveniently disregarded SPs and -goe landings).

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I think there are different levels of breaking out.

I agree and personally I wonder what Adian Pitkeev will have to do to be considered as breaking out and not just breaking out of juniors.

Edit: I just realized the thread title said MAN. This may exclude Adian from this discussion ] []

 

[Alba]

I agree and personally I wonder what Adian Pitkeev will have to do to be considered as breaking out and not just breaking out of juniors.

Edit: I just realized the thread title said MAN. This may exclude Adian from this discussion ] []

Like finishing top 10, I think.

What a horrible insult.

What's wrong to be compared with Joubert? Actually Max remind me of Joubert a bit, not there yet.

 

[Alba]

Kovtun called sports fans prostitutes and then he posted up a picture of the Titanic with the words "The Best Ice Bucket Challenge"

I heard about that prostitute thing, but I don't know how and why did that happened. :think:
Anyway, the Titanic thing just shows his stupidity, not that he is mean. At least I hope so.

 

[jace93]

Like finishing top 10, I think.

I think that to break through he at least has to win a medal of some color in the gp AND be competitive on worlds and euro

 

[Alba]

I think that to break through he at least has to win a medal of some color in the gp AND be competitive on worlds and euro

I don't think that he, or anyone like him, should win a medal in the GP, to be considered a breaking out.
I agree about being competitive at Euros and Worlds. So, top 10 at Worlds I think it's a very good thing.

Park So-Youn, for example, really did stood out for me at Worlds.

I guess we should set a parameter though, about what do we intend "breaking out", and stick to it.
Otherwise, evrybody has his own theory about it, like in my case.

 

[jace93]

I don't think that he, or anyone like him, should win a medal in the GP, to be considered a breaking out.
I agree about being competitive at Euros and Worlds. So, top 10 at Worlds I think it's a very good thing.

Park So-Youn, for example, really did stood out for me at Worlds.

I guess we should set a parameter though, about what do we intend "breaking out", and stick to it.
Otherwise, evrybody has his own theory about it, like in my case.

I said medal on the gp because that plus a top ten finis at worlds would show some consistency across the season, that I think it's needed to have a breakthrough SEASON. IMO Park o Yun has had a breaktrough PERFORMANCE, but after how badly she skated on the Olympics I'm far from certain if that world performance wasn't just a fluke

 

[shiroKJ]

Hm...I'm not sure if winning medals would be considered "breaking out" for everyone. In Hanyu's case, even though he won silver at 4CC in his first year on Seniors, no one really considered him a break out until his 2nd year when he won the bronze at worlds.

So its hard to say what's the measuring stick used for considering who has "broken out". :think:

 

[Wo|flax]

Hm...I'm not sure if winning medals would be considered "breaking out" for everyone. In Hanyu's case, even though he won silver at 4CC in his first year on Seniors, no one really considered him a break out until his 2nd year when he won the bronze at worlds.

So its hard to say what's the measuring stick used for considering who has "broken out". :think:

here's a question, if Hanyu hadn't won the bronze overall at worlds, but still done that amazing LP, would you consider still consider that a 'breakout performance'? I think I would, because it was memorable.
Applying that logic, you can say Jason has broken out, because of his Nationals performance. The measuring stick can just be a memorable, or beautiful performance.

so, who has the most potential to give a beautiful performance from these guys? I would say Farris (or Artur for comeback) if he can get the tech together. Han Yan if he can get his face artistic expression together. and I really like Footloose so Max just needs a clean performance
Which would leave Kovtun lower down the list for me; I just can't see it happening unless quality improves

 

[Alba]

I said medal on the gp because that plus a top ten finis at worlds would show some consistency across the season, that I think it's needed to have a breakthrough SEASON. IMO Park o Yun has had a breaktrough PERFORMANCE, but after how badly she skated on the Olympics I'm far from certain if that world performance wasn't just a fluke

Oh yes. If we also talk about consistency, which I think it's the most important factor, I agree with you.

Hm...I'm not sure if winning medals would be considered "breaking out" for everyone. In Hanyu's case, even though he won silver at 4CC in his first year on Seniors, no one really considered him a break out until his 2nd year when he won the bronze at worlds.

So its hard to say what's the measuring stick used for considering who has "broken out". :think:

True. But I think we're limiting the discussion on the next coming year only.
We don't know what the future will reserve them.
However, I agree that we shouldn't compare the juniors with those who are already seniors.
Their PCS will never be at the same level as the seniors, no matter how they skate.
Although, usually it shows that you are a junior, so normally I agree with the marks in that area for them.

 

[sunnybear]

Maybe it depends on how well they did with regards to to size of the competition, consistency and quality of the skate?

4CC isn't really such a major event compared to Worlds because there's less competition so you're likely to place higher in 4CC than in Worlds. I think out of the top 10 in Worlds 2011, only Takahashi and Kozuka had competed in 4CC 2011.

For consistency, I would compare So Youn and Polina. I think for Polina who has been doing relatively well in the junior circuit and she won silver in nationals. So it would be more believable to consider her Olympic or Worlds 2014 skate as her breakout rather than a fluke because she was rather consistent. As for So Youn, she may have done well in nationals like Polina, but the South Korean field is less deep. Furthermore, her Olympic skate was bad, so it is more likely for people to regard it as a fluke rather than a breakout (disclaimer: I'm not saying it's a fluke though, just that it might seem that way to some)

Also the quality of the skate. If Yuzuru had skated terribly in 2012, and had only gotten the medal because the rest of the field skated badly, i doubt it would have been considered a breakout. But he "skated the lights out" (as Chan put it ), and that's what made it his breakout, because people are less likely to think it was just luck. If you do well in one major competition, and it was only because everyone skated badly, you included, I highly doubt that would have made much impact.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I feel the need to say, in the 3A thread I mistakenly said Kovtun was more consistent on his 3A this season, because I remembered someone else saying he landed all his 3As this season, but apparently that was a lie (or they conveniently disregarded SPs and -goe landings).

Nobody landed all their triple axels this season... including Hanyu who has the best 3A arguably. Kovtun landed 16 out of 18.. He stepped of his 2nd 3A in CoR and popped his axel in his disastrous GPF SP.

 

[lcd]

Even though he will still be skating on the junior level internationally, I think Nationals could become an interesting opportunity for Nathan Chen to gain a wider audience should he make a strong debut at the senior level. Not truly a "break out" but I hadn't noticed him mentioned, and I think he is probably one to keep an eye out for.

 

[gmyers]

Voronov and menshov has euro medals. Both won their euro medals in 2014 when kovtun was there. Kovtun needs to prove himself at a euros and not bomb them all!

 

[Wo|flax]

Nobody landed all their triple axels this season... including Hanyu who has the best 3A arguably. Kovtun landed 16 out of 18.. He stepped of his 2nd 3A in CoR and popped his axel in his disastrous GPF SP.

Yeah, in that thread I was comparing Kovtun to Yuzu's 3A consistency last season(only) cuz I didn't know Kovtun popped the axel at GPF, or the touch down at COR. This makes him less consistent than Yuzu in the senior As since Yuzu only popped his axel at SA.
So thanks this teaches me to either check protocols or not skip skaters I don't like >.>

 

[Sandpiper]

Max is definitely the fastest of the four; his jumps are huge and he just flies into them (though they're sometimes a bit uncontrolled). He also reminds me of Brian Joubert a little. I don't get why that's an insult? I'm not sure if any of these guys could achieve what Joubert did: 6 World medals, including gold; 10-year medal streak at Europeans with three wins--substitute with GPF for the American guys?; landing two quads in an LP at the age of 29, ect.

Jason is the best performer by a country mile. If he gets a quad, everybody's doomed. Well, not Yuzuru or Javi, but still. I can see him becoming a Lambiel figure: staying near the top, but not dominating. As for who his performances remind me of... call me crazy, but something about the way he can bring a crowd to its feet, the way he performs like mad... almost reminds me of Michelle Kwan in the last hurrah of her career (2003-2004) before injuries took her.

I don't really have huge opinions on Joshua, except to say I'm worried about his trajectory. He has the skills to make it though.

Kovtun, on the other hand, has the best momentum right now. He has a decent overall skillset, though I wouldn't place him first in any category (even in jumps, I'd place Max above him aesthetically). Did somebody say he reminds them to Todd Eldredge?! I... don't get that at all. I'm hardly an Eldredge fan, but Eldredge always radiated joy when he skated. Whereas Kovtun always seems so sullen and displeased. I don't sense that love for the ice from him, or at least it doesn't come through in his performances.

 

[Meoima]

Max is definitely the fastest of the four; his jumps are huge and he just flies into them (though they're sometimes a bit uncontrolled). He also reminds me of Brian Joubert a little. I don't get why that's an insult? I'm not sure if any of these guys could achieve what Joubert did: 6 World medals, including gold; 10-year medal streak at Europeans with three wins--substitute with GPF for the American guys?; landing two quads in an LP at the age of 29, ect

I have same feeling about Max. Comparing him to Brian Jourbert is not insult at all. And Brian is hottttttt. :

Jason is the best performer by a country mile. If he gets a quad, everybody's doomed. Well, not Yuzuru or Javi, but still. I can see him becoming a Lambiel figure: staying near the top, but not dominating. As for who his performances remind me of... call me crazy, but something about the way he can bring a crowd to its feet, the way he performs like mad... almost reminds me of Michelle Kwan in the last hurrah of her career (2003-2004) before injuries took her.

eh... I don't know about this but I have to say this comparison is weird. Kwan? Eh... Can you think of a male skater?

I don't really have huge opinions on Joshua, except to say I'm worried about his trajectory. He has the skills to make it though.

me the same.

Kovtun, on the other hand, has the best momentum right now. He has a decent overall skillset, though I wouldn't place him first in any category (even in jumps, I'd place Max above him aesthetically). Did somebody say he reminds them to Todd Eldredge?! I... don't get that at all. I'm hardly an Eldredge fan, but Eldredge always radiated joy when he skated. Whereas Kovtun always seems so sullen and displeased. I don't sense that love for the ice from him, or at least it doesn't come through in his performances.

exactly how I feel about Kovtun. When gallavich asked what attitude of Kovtun that make me back off from him. I mean, it's just my perception about his usual expressions so I can't say if it's right. But well... It doesn't mean he is not a talent. He is pushed as Russian No.1 after all.

 

[Interspectator]

Another Skater just came to mind. Where is Adam Rippon in all this in people's minds?
I liked his skating style but he had a really rough year. What are his chances this year?

 

[karne]

Max is definitely the fastest of the four; his jumps are huge and he just flies into them (though they're sometimes a bit uncontrolled). He also reminds me of Brian Joubert a little. I don't get why that's an insult? I'm not sure if any of these guys could achieve what Joubert did: 6 World medals, including gold; 10-year medal streak at Europeans with three wins--substitute with GPF for the American guys?; landing two quads in an LP at the age of 29, ect.

Oh, Brian's achievements aren't an insult. But calling for Max to find his Matrix program...well... Max is capable of so much more than that. Joubert's technical feats were astonishing, but his programs weren't exactly what you'd call brilliant.

Jason is the best performer by a country mile. If he gets a quad, everybody's doomed. Well, not Yuzuru or Javi, but still.

Even Yuzuru and Javi, since Jason's spins are better, and his charisma is unquestionable.

I don't really have huge opinions on Joshua, except to say I'm worried about his trajectory. He has the skills to make it though.

What about his trajectory worries you?

Whereas Kovtun always seems so sullen and displeased.

Thank goodness I'm not the only one.

I have same feeling about Max. Comparing him to Brian Jourbert is not insult at all. And Brian is hottttttt. :

Really? I don't think Brian is that hot at all...but Max... :

Another Skater just came to mind. Where is Adam Rippon in all this in people's minds?
I liked his skating style but he had a really rough year. What are his chances this year?

I think Adam hasn't been mentioned in this discussion because he's already "broken out" years ago. His nationals was heartbreaking. I was almost in tears at the end of his free skate and he's not even a fave of mine. He'd skated so well all year and then...