Which man will break out in 2014-2015?

[Meoima]

Oh, Brian's achievements aren't an insult. But calling for Max to find his Matrix program...well... Max is capable of so much more than that. Joubert's technical feats were astonishing, but his programs weren't exactly what you'd call brilliant.

Well, Brian is hotttttt if I were a male skater and people compare me to Brian Jourbert I am sure I would just : but in case I am not Plushy or Yagudin, Kulik.

Even Yuzuru and Javi, since Jason's spins are better, and his charisma is unquestionable.

Both Yuzuru and Javi are capable of 2 quads (Yuzuru can do 2 quad toe and Javi 2 quad sal), and they are faster, both have better 3A. I like Jason just fine, but's it's true that aside from charisma, he needs to improve his skill-set overall.

What about his trajectory worries you?

Maybe because he had a bad season before with injuries.

Thank goodness I'm not the only one.

Me think the same. I mean I don't want to sound bitter towards Kovtun but it's true that I feel that way.

Really? I don't think Brian is that hot at all...but Max... :

Max is also hot.

 

[jace93]

Even Yuzuru and Javi, since Jason's spins are better, and his charisma is unquestionable.

The two of them are also quite a charismatic bunch, and the judges love them (rightly so IMO) so for Jason, even with a quad or two or three, it would be hard to catch up with them because of PCS and GOE alone... Hard but not impossible, as Machida showed this last year and as Hanyu and Fernadez themselves have done in 2012... =)

What about his trajectory worries you?

I think what worries many including me about his trajectory is that during the last year not only he hasn't improved compared to his junior days, but he has regressed (as both his score and his consistency with the jumps show) I truly hope that ti was just some adjustment problem and that form this year on he will be again competitive.

 

[karne]

Well, Brian is hotttttt if I were a male skater and people compare me to Brian Jourbert I am sure I would just : but in case I am not Plushy or Yagudin, Kulik.

Kulik is hottest.

Maybe because he had a bad season before with injuries.

Yes, I guess that's true that Josh has had a lot of bad injuries.

Max is also hot.

:

 

[satine]

Man, I can feel the pheromones radiating in this thread, what with all the talk of hotness

 

[HanDomi]

For any of skaters from this group will be very hard to step to level of Yuzuru or Javi. Just bad timing for them I think. Yuzuru is young and is now on fire and is going higher and higher even that right now he has huge gap on score from this group. Getting one quad is not enough right now. You need to get others quads also. And I like this trend very much. We are talking about fighting with clean performances. Of course anyone of this can get something if Yuzuru or Javi will bomb most of their programs.

So basing on that unfortunately RIGHT NOW Kovtun have some chance to get something like bronze on worlds. I would rather watch Pitkeev progress if he can get quads. Boyan Jin is intersting but there is big, big work to do on his skating and delivering his quads

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Man, I can feel the pheromones radiating in this thread, what with all the talk of hotness

Expect for Yuzu. Yuzu is pretty

here's a question, if Hanyu hadn't won the bronze overall at worlds, but still done that amazing LP, would you consider still consider that a 'breakout performance'? I think I would, because it was memorable.

I'm probably in the minority, but for me, Hanyus break out skate was his GPF LP that year. It was his first really big event (4CC isn't as big, IMO) and I think he delivered really well, TES and PCS wise. A lot of people thought he should have gotten the bronze over Fernandez, and afterwards he became a top 5 favorite for worlds for many people. I was a fan before that, but for me, that was the moment it hit me like a brick that maybe I was even underestimating him when I thought it would take him until after 2014 to really become a gold medal contender or even favorite. 2012 worlds confirmed that, but my major "exception changer" for Yuzu was the GPF. Actually, just like this year, when he went from podium contender to possible OGM at the GPF.

In that sense, Jason had his break out at last seasons nationals. Max had his when he won nationals. Josh is the only one who hasn't really broken out yet. Kovtun only really did it for me at worlds 2014 too, before that he was always "half way out", so to speak. And "half way" is pretty much what I'd presently call Han Yan too. But that's just my own pretty vague way of defining it.

 

[FSGMT]

I'm probably in the minority, but for me, Hanyus break out skate was his GPF LP that year. It was his first really big event (4CC isn't as big, IMO) and I think he delivered really well, TES and PCS wise. A lot of people thought he should have gotten the bronze over Fernandez, and afterwards he became a top 5 favorite for worlds for many people. I was a fan before that, but for me, that was the moment it hit me like a brick that maybe I was even underestimating him when I thought it would take him until after 2014 to really become a gold medal contender or even favorite. 2012 worlds confirmed that, but my major "exception changer" for Yuzu was the GPF. Actually, just like this year, when he went from podium contender to possible OGM at the GPF.

In that sense, Jason had his break out at last seasons nationals. Max had his when he won nationals. Josh is the only one who hasn't really broken out yet. Kovtun only really did it for me at worlds 2014 too, before that he was always "half way out", so to speak. And "half way" is pretty much what I'd presently call Han Yan too. But that's just my own pretty vague way of defining it.

I absolutely agree about Yuzuru's GPF breakout! :yes: All the guys were wonderful in that event, it was a pity that he ended up 4th out of 6 with a beautiful program, but after all that's what GPF is about! That was the first time when I really thought that he could have become a world-podium contender, and he absolutely proved it with his FS at Worlds.
For Kovtun, his breakout for me was in this year's GP, when he landed two quads in the SP and won the event (I frankly don't remember precisely which one was it). I agree that Yan and Farris haven't had any real breakout moment yet

 

[Meoima]

I absolutely agree about Yuzuru's GPF breakout! :yes: All the guys were wonderful in that event, it was a pity that he ended up 4th out of 6 with a beautiful program, but after all that's what GPF is about! That was the first time when I really thought that he could have become a world-podium contender, and he absolutely proved it with his FS at Worlds.
For Kovtun, his breakout for me was in this year's GP, when he landed two quads in the SP and won the event (I frankly don't remember precisely which one was it). I agree that Yan and Farris haven't had any real breakout moment yet

Kovtun hasn't won any GP yet. He placed 2nd in both Cup of China and Russia.

 

[jace93]

I absolutely agree about Yuzuru's GPF breakout! :yes: All the guys were wonderful in that event, it was a pity that he ended up 4th out of 6 with a beautiful program, but after all that's what GPF is about! That was the first time when I really thought that he could have become a world-podium contender, and he absolutely proved it with his FS at Worlds.
For Kovtun, his breakout for me was in this year's GP, when he landed two quads in the SP and won the event (I frankly don't remember precisely which one was it). I agree that Yan and Farris haven't had any real breakout moment yet

it was COR but after that he pretty much bombed in the free (a la Hanyu in skate America 2012)...

Can I just note that Han Yan personal Best is just a point lower than Kovtun?

here are their various PB

Maxim Kovtun:



Total 247.37 ISU World Championships 2014

SP 92.53 ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2013
SP Technical 51.78 ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2013
SP Component 41.36 ISU European Championships 2014

FS 164.32 ISU Grand Prix Final 2013/14
FS Technical 83.24 ISU Grand Prix Final 2013/14
FS Component 82.22 ISU World Championships 2014

Han Yan

Total 246.20 XXII Olympic Winter Games 2014

SP 90.14 ISU GP Cup of China 2013
SP Technical 50.25 ISU GP Cup of China 2013
SP Component 40.72 XXII Olympic Winter Games 2014

FS 160.54 XXII Olympic Winter Games 2014
FS Technical 80.60 XXII Olympic Winter Games 2014
FS Component 81.34 ISU GP Cup of China 2013


Han Yan has been able to hold his own against Kovtun both in PCS and in TES, even thoug his BV his quite a bit lower than that of Maxim, so even though I wouldn't say that he is a front runner, I find it quite strange that people shoot down him so much. Maybe it's true he hasn't had a real breakthrough performance, but seeing his results (1st COC, 4 TEB, 7th OLY, 7th WC) it's hard to say that he hasn't had a breakthrough season.

 

[FSGMT]

Kovtun hasn't won any GP yet. He placed 2nd in both Cup of China and Russia.

Oh, sorry, I should have checked the results before posting :

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I absolutely agree about Yuzuru's GPF breakout! :yes: All the guys were wonderful in that event, it was a pity that he ended up 4th out of 6 with a beautiful program, but after all that's what GPF is about! That was the first time when I really thought that he could have become a world-podium contender, and he absolutely proved it with his FS at Worlds.
For Kovtun, his breakout for me was in this year's GP, when he landed two quads in the SP and won the event (I frankly don't remember precisely which one was it). I agree that Yan and Farris haven't had any real breakout moment yet

Yes, the 2011 GPF was an amazing event for the men, it really gave Yuzus LP an extra "push" for me

Maybe it's true he hasn't had a real breakthrough performance, but seeing his results (1st COC, 4 TEB, 7th OLY, 7th WC) it's hard to say that he hasn't had a breakthrough season.

Not sure if you count me as someone who shot Han down a little, because I said he hasn't really broken out for me by now. If someone has broken out or not doesn't even correlate that much with their near-future potential, IMO. Out of this group, my money would be on Han to get the big medals in the next years. It's just that he didn't have that event until now that really made me think "Wow, medal favorite from now on!" and not "Wow, medal favorite in the upcoming years" (and at 18, the latter is perfectly fine). To be honest, Kovtun never reached the medal favorite status for me either, and I don't think he'll do it next season. But a lot of people seem to view that differently.

And there are probably even skaters who didn't even have a real "break out performance" and won the big medals. It's just that sometimes, a skater seems to reach the higher ranks slow and steady, and sometimes they crash right into it. And I kind of connect the "crash into" with a break out performance

 

[unico]

For me "break out season" has the connotation of a season of momentum that really culminates with a powerful performance/competition, just like Machida this season or Hanyu in 2011-2012. One can achieve medals or have good results but if the season doesn't follow a nice trajectory then I think I view their good performances as one-offs and not really as part of a break out season. You can't just "break out" and then sort of "wander back in" , which is why you have to follow up a good performance with more good performances.

I wouldn't call either Yan/Kovtun them medal favourites, but in the men's the bronze is almost always up for grabs. It's not everyday the bronze medallist has to earn 275 points to even be on the podium

 

[ice coverage]

Another Skater just came to mind. Where is Adam Rippon in all this in people's minds?
I liked his skating style but he had a really rough year. What are his chances this year?

... I think Adam hasn't been mentioned in this discussion because he's already "broken out" years ago. His nationals was heartbreaking. I was almost in tears at the end of his free skate and he's not even a fave of mine. He'd skated so well all year and then...

I would not say that Rippon had a rough year [ETA, I'm referring to the year in entirety]. As karne said, he had a rough time at Nationals, but he was having a great season up until then. Going into Boston, many believed that a ticket to Sochi was Rippon's to lose.
@amyrosewater interviewed Rippon at Champs Camp. She tweeted this heartbreaking preview:

.@Adaripp on training after disappointing nat'ls: If you think training in altitude is hard, try training a full run through in a crying fit
5:01 PM - 25 Aug 2014
https://twitter.com/amyrosewater/status/504056084353409024​

Dornbush and Miner (along with Rippon) belong on the list of U.S. men who already have broken out and who aspire to return to the world team this season.

 

[Interspectator]

I would not say that Rippon had a rough year. As karne said, he had a rough time at Nationals, but he was having a great season up until then. Going into Boston, many believed that a ticket to Sochi was Rippon's to lose.
@amyrosewater interviewed Rippon at Champs Camp. She tweeted this heartbreaking preview:

.@Adaripp on training after disappointing nat'ls: If you think training in altitude is hard, try training a full run through in a crying fit
5:01 PM - 25 Aug 2014

https://twitter.com/amyrosewater/status/504056084353409024​

Dornbush and Miner (along with Rippon) belong on the list of U.S. men who already have broken out and who aspire to return to the world team this season.

Thanks for that info. I hope Rippon can continue to improve and gain consistency.

 

[StitchMonkey]

I would not say that Rippon had a rough year [ETA, I'm referring to the year in entirety]. As karne said, he had a rough time at Nationals, but he was having a great season up until then. Going into Boston, many believed that a ticket to Sochi was Rippon's to lose.
@amyrosewater interviewed Rippon at Champs Camp. She tweeted this heartbreaking preview:

.@Adaripp on training after disappointing nat'ls: If you think training in altitude is hard, try training a full run through in a crying fit
5:01 PM - 25 Aug 2014
https://twitter.com/amyrosewater/status/504056084353409024​

Way to pull at the heart strings first thing in the morning. . .geez it is way to early to want a drink!

 

[Sandpiper]

eh... I don't know about this but I have to say this comparison is weird. Kwan? Eh... Can you think of a male skater?

Sorry for being weird, but when I saw Riverdance, all I could think of was Kwan's 2003 and 2004 Nationals (which are some of my favourite performances of all time). The way he grabbed the audience and wouldn't let them go. Among male skaters, Jason reminds me of young Plushy, actually (performance-wise; obviously, in terms of technical skills, they have opposite inclinations).

Oh, Brian's achievements aren't an insult. But calling for Max to find his Matrix program...well... Max is capable of so much more than that. Joubert's technical feats were astonishing, but his programs weren't exactly what you'd call brilliant.

The Matrix overstayed its welcome, but Joubert's programs aren't universally bad. I really like this one, for instance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tm9DI2QGjzc bang: at the 2A-1T, but it was a great performance).

Even Yuzuru and Javi, since Jason's spins are better, and his charisma is unquestionable.

Jason's spins are better than Javi's. Not sure about Yuzu's. But either way, I think it'll be a while before Jason can get either the technical arsenal or the reputation to challenge these two (though Jason with a quad can beat Javi on a really off day).

What about his trajectory worries you?

He hasn't really lit up the place since seniors, has been hit with injuries, and seems to be losing his momentum the past season (compared to, say, Jason or Kovtun). Granted, it's not like any of the people we're talking about have really cemented themselves, so Josh is fine for now. But if Jason has another good season while he has another bad one, the gap between them will only get wider.

 

[IcyEdges]

I really hope Farris breaks out this season and Jeremy is able to have a great season.

 

[Meoima]

I hope Jeremy can end in a high note then retires, he is not getting younger anymore.hwell:

 

[snowflake]

I think there are different levels of breaking out. I think the level of breaking out into world medal contention is what we're discussing here.


Here's how I see it:

The major contenders are: Yuzuru Hanyu, Tatsuki Machida, Denis Ten and Javier Fernandez. Also Patrick Chan if he opts to return in 2015.

The (relative) newbies to watch: Maxim Kovtun, Han Yan, Jason Brown, Max Aaron, Joshua Farris, Nam Nguyen

The comeback veterans (those who held top six finishes previously (highest finish): Takahiko Kouzka (2nd), Artur Gachinski (3rd), Michel Brezina (4th), Florent Amodio (5th), Kevin Reynolds (5th) and Jeremy Abbott (5th).

I would include Peter Liebers. Also Alexander Majorov, in spite of his inconsistancy. In my view both are still improving.

Of the US guys my bet is on Farris to be the best US man this season. His injury slowed him down a lot last season I think, when he was on his way to break through as a senior.

Internationally I can't guess between Kovtun and Han Yan.
Hoping for surprises. I refuse to see the silver and gold world medals already handed out

I hope Jeremy can end in a high note then retires, he is not getting younger anymore.hwell:

What's the high note? Maybe he wants more whatever it is

 

[OS]

Han Yan has been discussed already, my problem is he hasn't produced a program I like. What's up with these weird humour programs when his natural style and presentation seems more serious and classical. Give him a Patrick Chan program please to highlight the skating skills above all else.

I am surprised no one mentioned Michael Christian Matinez from Philippines yet. Although only came 19th at the Olympics he really made a big impression on the BBC broadcast along with HanYan (Robin Cousins positively gushed) along with Jason Brown as the youngsters to watch for. Michael is very young but he could be a Denis Ten in a few years with the right mentorship. He is a pioneer in the making for being the first ever skater from south East Asia - tropical zone region to qualify for the winter games (sole Phillipines athlete took part at the winter Olympics) and managed to make it to the FS. He has been skating at juniors and this season should make it to senior. His first event will be at skate America. I wonder if we may get a fluff piece depends on how he get on with the SP I suppose..tough road ahead but one to watch out. Good looks don't hurt either