2015-16 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[jace93]

Wow. Just Wow. I sincerely hope that most of the skaters do NOT read this forum. This is a tough crowd. It blows my mind that someone would prefer Nathan over Jason who has the better track record. I, too, don't see why anyone has to tear down one skater to prop up another.

I honestly find it quite ironic how when a poster say he/she would prefer to see Nathan instead of Jason at worlds he/she is an hater, but trashing Chen's ability and demeaning him by repeating that he's just a boy and shouldn't compete with the real men it's completely appropriate. And I'm saying this as someone that's not a fan of Nathan and has always supported Jason (even though I'm not an hardcore fan and I couldn't care less about his programs this year)

 

[StitchMonkey]

I do not understand why Chen's so-called "fans" are so keen to rob him of a potential Junior World Title. Nothing wrong with winning that.

Agreed. In fact I think winning junior worlds would do more for his long term reputation than being suddenly being bumped up to senior one worlds early. The junior world title is respected - it's worth should not be dismissed! I would rather enter my first grand prix season as a reigning junior world champion rather than a reigning 8th place at world's skater.

 

[andromache]

*sigh*

Nathan fans want to tear down the older men, and fans of the older men want to tear down Nathan. It's like "let's appreciate the various abilities of all these skaters and understand that some fans might have different tastes than others!" is basically impossible. You can root for your favorites and criticize others without being rude and disrespectful. It's completely fine to not like Jason's choreography, but it's denying reality to say it isn't insanely difficult to pull off. It's fine not to like Nathan's style either, but to imply that he doesn't belong at Worlds even if he places in the top 3 in Nationals simply because of his age is ridiculous. His jumps and his skating skills are pretty admirable, and even if he still needs time to mature, Senior Worlds would be a wonderful opportunity for him--just as it would be for any of the men.

I'm most worried about Josh. He's my darling, but I'm concerned that he won't be 100% ready for Nationals if it's his first competition of the season.

 

[Seren]

Can't we like them both? They both have excellent qualities.

I am so sick of people saying that Jason can't "play with the big boys" because he lacks the quad. His skating is phenomenal, and hard. Speaking as someone who almost murdered myself working on brackets yesterday I can't watch his footwork without being awed by how good he is. And his spins are divine. Love or hate his program, when he gets the consistent quad I think he will be able to beat anyone.

As for Nathan, he has so much promise. Putting all this pressure on him to be the second coming of men's Figure skating doesn't help him. He looks like a motivated guy, I'm sure he puts the pressure on himself. And I would love to see him go to Junior Worlds and win that title, which is prestigious itself. Think about the momentum he would have debuting at senior worlds as the junior world champion.

I think there is a lot to like about all he US men right now. Oddly enough, I am more excited about the men than the ladies which is rare. Let's hope everyone does their best and in the end we will have an awesome team to show for it. It's normal to have favorites, I won't deny Jason is mine, but that doesn't mean I don't see the greatness in everyone else.

 

[Seren]

I'm most worried about Josh. He's my darling, but I'm concerned that he won't be 100% ready for Nationals if it's his first competition of the season.

I feel so bad for Josh, I would rather see him take this season off entirely if it means he would be 100% next year. I almost feel like that would be better for his career than coming back less than ready and having a bad nationals.

 

[Mrs. P]

Can't we like them both? They both have excellent qualities.

I am so sick of people saying that Jason can't "play with the big boys" because he lacks the quad. His skating is phenomenal, and hard. Speaking as someone who almost murdered myself working on brackets yesterday I can't watch his footwork without being awed by how good he is. And his spins are divine. Love or hate his program, when he gets the consistent quad I think he will be able to beat anyone.

As for Nathan, he has so much promise. Putting all this pressure on him to be the second coming of men's Figure skating doesn't help him. He looks like a motivated guy, I'm sure he puts the pressure on himself. And I would love to see him go to Junior Worlds and win that title, which is prestigious itself. Think about the momentum he would have debuting at senior worlds as the junior world champion.

I think there is a lot to like about all he US men right now. Oddly enough, I am more excited about the men than the ladies which is rare. Let's hope everyone does their best and in the end we will have an awesome team to show for it. It's normal to have favorites, I won't deny Jason is mine, but that doesn't mean I don't see the greatness in everyone else.

:agree:

The U.S. men look REALLY good compared to the ladies at the moment. I know juniors are not an indication of what will happen at the senior level, but it's pretty telling when your have four different junior men medal vs just one for the ladies (unless Paige makes a huge comeback in the free skate in Croatia, which seems unlikely).

At the senior level, the men currently have a slight edge over the ladies by having medalists at all three Challenge Series events thus far.

Just looking at the numbers, Max Aaron currently has the highest TES in the SP (45.78), Nathan Chen has the highest TES in the FS (88.69) and the second highest in the SP (42.48). Jason currently has the highest overall score (239.37), PCS in both segments (40.10 ,82.70) and the second highest TES in the FS (79.69).

So power rankings wise, here's how I rank them

1.) Nathan Chen - High TES, Decent PCS. The PCS gap between him and Jason is sizable, but he can make that up with high TES, which is why their overall scores are relatively close.
2.) Jason Brown - Highest Overall score, Highest PCS, OK TES. The quad could make him or break him, but it looks like it's coming along.
3.) Max Aaron - Can score high TES, but showed inconsistency in the FS.
4.) Vincent Zhou - Getting close on the quad (clean, but UR at the moment), but so-so PCS
5.) Adam Rippon - Only have the SP on Finlandia. His TES was the second to last among the senior men. His PCS is so-so, but not that far off from Max's PCS at Nebelhorn with a clean skate.
5.) Timothy Dolensky - Decent TES considering his struggles on the 3A, very lovely skating.
6.) Ross Miner - Very lovely basics, but the jumps don't seem to be there. He does get decent PCS.
7.) Grant Hochestin - He had a decent SP at Nebelhorn, but struggled in the FS. He can do the jumps, it's a matter of whether he can do them in competition.
8.) Richard Dornbush - Hopes he does better at his next competition as he can do better. His TES in the SP is actually lower than ALL the men (including the JGP competitors).

 

[noskates]

I don't think anyone is calling anyone a hater - at least I'm not. I just find it sad that there has to be such polarization at this early part of the season. Mrs. P, as always, has great stats but we've just started the season. I love Jason and his skating. I find him incredibly talented and don't understand the nit-picking. I also like Nathen and his age shouldn't keep him from Worlds if he places in the top 3 at Nationals. I wish Josh nothing but good health - whether he skates again or not. He has a long life ahead of him with that brain and the injury shouldn't be taken lightly. Max is not my cup of tea - but if he goes to Worlds I'll be rooting with the rest of the nation. If he wins Nationals I'll be happy for him because he's worked hard. Adam always has a soft spot in my heart and I wish he could get over the yips and be consistent because he would give anyone you can mention a run for their money - in the US or internationally. Ricky Dornbush has ALL the goods but skates with his head instead of his feet - much like Jeremy Abbott did/does. Don't have an opinion about Tim, Ross or Grant. They're just sort of "there!" Vincent has the age factor going against him and the fact that he's had so many injuries.

BUT - whoever wins or places from the US will always have my support on the international scene.

 

[el henry]

I think a lot of straw skaters get set up in these threads....

I do NOT "hate" Nathan. The word I keep using for him is "precision"; the jumps, the moves, the skating. And I mean that as a compliment. I do not hold my breath when Nathan flies into the air because I have confidence he will land the jump. I believe Nathan has a ways to go in presentation. I do not believe he is a "natural" performer. But I do believe if he works hard, and God knows he seems to work hard, he can improve those presentation skills. The kid is 16. Let him win Junior Worlds and bask in that. Go Nathan (ETA: Thank you, Golden, for pointing out that Nathan skated as a senior last year at Nats; my bad.)

Of course, Jason is a fav. He has presentation skills you can't teach. He is a natural performer. And the intricacies of his skating; well, others better versed have explained this above. On the downside, I hold my breath when Jason jumps. He does not have a quad in competition. Has any Jason fan ever denied this?

But here is where I am puzzled: in some instances, I do not believe that Nathan love is Nathan love, but disrespect for the other men. Why? Because last season I saw these posts: Josh is gorgeous, Josh is wonderful, Josh lands quads, Josh is our best hope at Worlds. Particularly after Nats: Adam is gorgeous, Adam is wonderful, Adam lands quads, Adam is our best hope at Worlds. And I was a big fan of Adam after Finlandia last year; then he broke my heart in the GP. And I was looking forward to Josh, and 4CC was wonderful, but the other comps ....

I have absolutely no problem with fans being fans and loving their fav. I am puzzled when that fav changes from year to year, but is always the guy with the quads who is going to beat Jason Brown. And I don't think I am a Nathan hater, or unreasonable, or overly starry eyed about my fav to be that puzzled....

 

[andromache]

Everyone has skaters they don't like and probably would prefer not to see at Worlds. But I think on a discussion forum where there are fans of many skaters, it's really rude and disrespectful to say "I don't want to see so and so on the team" instead of just leaving it at "My ideal team is THESE THREE." Sure, it's then IMPLIED that there are skaters you don't want to make the team, but that way you aren't blatantly insulting skaters and fans of those skaters by flat-out saying you don't want them on the team (i.e. you want them to skate poorly enough that they don't make it.)

It's similar to what I consider to be good etiquette in the competition threads. Celebrate how high your faves placed without saying "Yay! This other person fell!"

 

[samson]

Well the cards seem to be shuffling as much as ever with the US Men. I still give Jason a slight edge over everyone else at this point. In light of the Kori Ade approach to programs (starting slow early in the season and building to a strong finish at the end of the season) if that plan holds true for Jason he's in great shape right now. With his scores at Nepala he's already surpassed all his scores from last fall. I'm curious how consistent the quad is in practice right now, but we know he's capable of it, and I think both his programs this year are stronger than last years choreographically.

Nathan I have a hunch is going to have a "Michelle in '95" season. For reference to what I mean here's Michelle's long program from '95 worlds:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UlJuZjzpUM

This is to say I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled out some of the cleanest and most technical programs this season, and definitely has great polish, but his lack of maturity and strength over the ice compared to the other men will probably make it difficult to take any titles at the senior level. However, if he delivers at nationals this year and isn't champion, I think 2017 may be his for the taking.

 

[Skater Boy]

Seeing lots of hate for so many of the US men here right now!

I love them all . Sure, I have my favorites, but I'm not going to tear other men down in order to support them. It's a shame we only have three Worlds spots!

True but it could be worse think of the Russian ladies now that is really sad when the oly gold medallist looks like she won't make it.

 

[Skater Boy]

I feel so bad for Josh, I would rather see him take this season off entirely if it means he would be 100% next year. I almost feel like that would be better for his career than coming back less than ready and having a bad nationals.

I wish Josh well but it is hard to not skate all season and then go to Nats. I hope this is not a career ending injury but concussions are tricky think of eric Lindros.

 

[Skater Boy]

Everyone has skaters they don't like and probably would prefer not to see at Worlds. But I think on a discussion forum where there are fans of many skaters, it's really rude and disrespectful to say "I don't want to see so and so on the team" instead of just leaving it at "My ideal team is THESE THREE." Sure, it's then IMPLIED that there are skaters you don't want to make the team, but that way you aren't blatantly insulting skaters and fans of those skaters by flat-out saying you don't want them on the team (i.e. you want them to skate poorly enough that they don't make it.)

It's similar to what I consider to be good etiquette in the competition threads. Celebrate how high your faves placed without saying "Yay! This other person fell!"

This is a very vocal group; if you weren't a figure skating fan and read these posts you would laugh (LOL). But seriously Brown is the current US it boy and Chen is the future and wow you have such potential in the likes of Rippon, Aaron et al. It is exciting but right now probably the American ladies are closer to the podium although Brown was darn close (though on the other hand he almost got beaten at world's by Canada's answer to Nathan Chen- Nam Nguyen.

 

[karne]

I wish Josh well but it is hard to not skate all season and then go to Nats. I hope this is not a career ending injury but concussions are tricky think of eric Lindros.

Last year he didn't skate until NHK which was rather a disaster. Look how well that turned out for him at Nationals

I just do not understand what the big rush is to get Chen onto the big stage. He's 16, whether his fans like it or not he is a kid. What is wrong with the idea of sending him off to Junior Worlds to become JWC? They held Joshua and Jason back for the same purpose at 18 and they were far more polished and mature skaters, so why is it such a terrible thing for Chen? Why the huge rush? Why not let him just grow and develop at a steady rate, and come into his first Senior season as the Junior World Champ, with those props from the judges and the ranking points that go with it?

 

[Mrs. P]

Josh/Jason junior situation is actually comparable to Nathan's. This is Nathan's fourth JGP season. He's gone to junior worlds twice, same as Josh (Jason went three times). Josh and Jason also competed in three JGP seasons. It's just that Nathan started earlier.

Polina Edmunds never even went to junior worlds and only had one JGP season before getting to the Olympic team. If Nathan gets to the top three there isn't really a good reason to keep him in juniors
.
And while his PCS isn't high compared to Jason, it's on par with many of the senior men.

 

[Jammers]

People want Nathan to go Senior also because he can do quads and most of our top US Men can't. I mean look at Adam trying a quad lutz at 25 which will probably never happen. Nathan can only get better at his age.

 

[karne]

Josh/Jason junior situation is actually comparable to Nathan's. This is Nathan's fourth JGP season. He's gone to junior worlds twice, same as Josh (Jason went three times). Josh and Jason also competed in three JGP seasons. It's just that Nathan started earlier.

Polina Edmunds never even went to junior worlds and only had one JGP season before getting to the Olympic team. If Nathan gets to the top three there isn't really a good reason to keep him in juniors
.
And while his PCS isn't high compared to Jason, it's on par with many of the senior men.

But Josh and Jason did their JGP seasons straight through, more or less uninterrupted by injury. Even when Josh broke his leg he was right back on track at the beginning of the next JGP season. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to encourage Chen to take it slowly and carefully given his injury history. And I still don't get what's so wrong with the idea of Chen being potentially the JWC. The USFS even wanted to keep Jason back another year and send him to Junior Worlds for a fourth time, at 19, for him to win it.

 

[Mrs. P]

But Josh and Jason did their JGP seasons straight through, more or less uninterrupted by injury. Even when Josh broke his leg he was right back on track at the beginning of the next JGP season. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to encourage Chen to take it slowly and carefully given his injury history. And I still don't get what's so wrong with the idea of Chen being potentially the JWC. The USFS even wanted to keep Jason back another year and send him to Junior Worlds for a fourth time, at 19, for him to win it.

But I don't see how he would be at less risk of an injury by staying junior other than he's doing one less quad in competition. If Nathan finishes in the top 3 at nationals, he should not be displaced. None of the men, even Jason, has a case for displacing Nathan if they finish in 4th.

 

[Mathman]

Does anyone know what Nathan wants to do, if he had his druthers?

 

[karne]

But I don't see how he would be at less risk of an injury by staying junior other than he's doing one less quad in competition. If Nathan finishes in the top 3 at nationals, he should not be displaced. None of the men, even Jason, has a case for displacing Nathan if they finish in 4th.

You can't say that at the beginning of the season. The Senior men haven't even had the first GP yet. What if Jason medals at both GPs and makes the GPF? What if Max does? Should that be held less than a couple of Junior wins? That would be a very Kovtun-like path for the USFS to take, and we saw how well that (didn't) work out for them.