2015-16 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[aromaticchicken]

Thx for the Kwan history.

Hypothetical question:
Would Vincent + Aleksei/Tomoki not be safe enough bets to earn Team USA's Junior slots for the following year? (Meaning without Nathan, if he goes to Senior worlds.)
I do not claim to know the answer ... am not sufficiently familiar with the numbers game for earning Junior slots or with the Junior landscape in general.

Again, you do not have to convince me that Nathan should be in the mix for consideration for Senior worlds.
All I am saying is that I'm not sure I like the idea of him getting both assignments, even though the rules permit both.

If everyone skates clean, I don't think tomoki and aleksei would break top 8. Vincent could be a surprise medalist if he puts in the axel and 4S as well so he has been doing it in practice. I believe the math for three spots is the same as senior worlds- need to add up to less than 13. It's possible for Vincent to break top 5 (and even win it all) but that means the second man needs to get 7 through 12, depending.

It's a big ask. Tomoki is still working on his axel (I mean, he's one of the youngest!) and aleksei is limited by pcs.

It's certainly possible, but keep in mind that "handing" Nathan a junior world title is mutually beneficial: it's a big title that will stay with him forever (everyone cites world Junior championship titles when discussing skaters credentials), but it also makes it much easier for the US to earn more spots next year. Vincent and Nathan can easily sum less than 13, barring catastrophe - and we've yet to see either of these boys have a meltdown, except maybe when injured.

I think of it this way. Junior and senior world's eligibility should be determined independently, and it's okay if skaters overlap. The bottom line is that the best skaters should have the best opportunities - and by letting them succeed, they can open up opportunities for future skaters.

I want to see Vincent and Nathan try to both medal at junior world's this year, (realistically, maximum possible would be Nathan and 1st and Vincent 3rd) and then next year they earn three spots:

1) for a healthy Andrew Torgashev (who was landing axels and quads before his injury)
2) for an artistically improved Alexei K
3) for an older, taller, Tomoki Hiwatashi.

[emoji4] [emoji4] [emoji4] [emoji4] [emoji4] [emoji4]

 

[snowflake]

Does anyone know what Nathan wants to do, if he had his druthers?

I would think that he and all US men skaters fiercely compete for a spot at HOME world championships. Go all !

 

[gravy]

I think the whole reason Nathan has hype is because he *is* an exception. There are few instances where the US sends a skater to both because it's rare that a junior skater comes along and knocks the socks off of people while being eligible for both.

One last notable case would be Michelle Kwan, who placed 2nd in nationals in 1994 and was sent to both worlds, where she placed 7th, and junior world's, which she won. (notably, after being left off the Olympic team for Nancy and Tonya.)

This isn't the same as when Adam rippon won junior world's without a triple axel: Nathan has two quads and two axels. He has senior technical content. And while he is nowhere as artistic as Jason or Josh, he's got great skating skills and isn't at all as robotic/horrible/lifeless so people would like you to believe.

It also isn't the same as when, as Karne likes to bring up constantly and incorrectly, Josh and Jason were "held back" from senior world's. No! Josh and Jason were never top 3 national medalists until the past few years. And in this case, if Nathan places off the podium, *no one* (or at least, very few people) are suggesting he should be sent to senior world's over the others.

Nathan will go to junior world's at the very least. It's not just about other opportunities: it's about spots. How well the juniors do this year affect how many jgp and junior world spots the US gets next year. The federation wants to send Vincent and Nathan to get three spots back at world's and retain the maximum two per junior grand prix we currently have.

If he does not place on the podium, I highly doubt the usfs will send him to world's. In fact, I'm willing to bet a limb over it haha

I agree with everything you said.

However, minor correction and fun fact: Junior Worlds at that time and up until 2000 used to be held in December of the previous year, in this case December 1993. Kwan went on to finish 2nd at Nationals the next month and then sent to Senior Worlds in '94 when Nancy and Tonya withdrew.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_World_Junior_Figure_Skating_Championships

 

[Mrs. P]

Comparison time!!!

Nine U.S. senior men have competed in either Senior B's or in the JGP. We'll do averages later, but for now, just doing season's best.
I took each segment, plus the TES/PCS breakdown and ranked them. Then I did an average ranking, which is below. The breakdown can be seen further on this post.

AVERAGES:
Jason Brown: 2.00 - He ranked No. 1 by far in PCS and also ranked No. 1 in FS overall and overall score. He was No. 2 every where else except SP overall (3rd) and SP TES (5th, though he was close to the 3rd and 4th place ranks)
Nathan Chen: 2.57 - He only had one No. 1 category (FS TES). He ranked No. 2 in every other category, except for SP PCS (5th) and FS PCS (4th). .
Max Aaron: 3.71 - He ranked No. 1 in the SP and SP TES and No. 3 in SP PCS, but his FS performance put him further down the ranks.
Adam Rippon: 4.00 - He had a strong FS in Finlandia, which helped him get top 3 in FS, FS TES, FS PCS and overall. He was much farther down the standings in the SP, except for PCS (4th)
---
Miner: 5.29 - He has strong PCS scores, but relatively low TES.
---
Zhou: 6.00 - Strong TES in the FS (Top4), but low PCS, not surprising as he's a junior.
Dolensky: 6.14 - He had a nice FS in Finlandia, his overall/TES there was in the median.
Hochstein: 7.00 - Decent TES in the SP (he beat Jason) but struggled in the FS at Nebelhorn.
Dornbush: 8.19 - So strange and disappointing to see him down here, I hope he will improve as the season goes on.

So the top 4 is your "podium" for now in this ongoing U.S. men's horse race. Jason and Nathan look to be the neck-and-neck leaders at this point. Basically one has a TES buffer over the other (Nathan, by 6 points in the SP and 9 points in in the FS) and the other a PCS buffer (Jason, by about 5 points in the SP and 9 points in the FS). Of course this isn't a perfect comparison as one is doing a senior level comp. and the other is in a junior level comp. We may have a better idea when Nathan debuts as a senior on the Tallinn Cup later on this fall.

Max looked great in the SP, but then really struggled in the FS. There is even room for improvement even in the SP -- 45+ TES is solid, but you should aim for 50+ if you're doing a quad.
Adam was almost the reverse: Struggled in the SP, but improved in the FS, which from what I heard got great reception by the audience (I haven't watched it yet). He seem to do better without the quad lutz in the picture, but we know Adam is going to keep trying for it.

We'll have more in the horse race this coming week with the season debuts (and international debut in one case!) of Alexander Johnson and Sean Rabbit!


THE NUMBERS!

Overall
Jason Brown: 239.37 (Ondrej Nepala Trophy)
Nathan Chen: 236.76 (JGP Colorado Springs)
Adam Rippon: 224.18 (Finlandia Trophy)
Max Aaron: 222.94 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
---
Vincent Zhou: 211.96 (JGP Austria) -- MEDIAN SCORE
---
Timothy Dolensky: 210.55 (Finlandia Trophy)
Ross Miner: 209.93 (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)
Grant Hochstein: 194.88 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Richard Dornbush: 191.02 (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)

Short Program
Aaron: 83.46
Chen: 77.94
Brown: 76.98
Miner: 74.66
--
Hochstein: 69.60
--
Rippon: 69.29
Dolensky: 69.18
Zhou: 68.07
Dornbush: 65.33

SP TES
Aaron: 45.78
Chen: 42.48
Hochstein: 38.48
Zhou: 36.66
---
Brown: 36.38
---
Miner 36.31
Dolensky 34.08
Rippon 33.40
Dornbush 30.43

SP PCS
Brown: 40.10
Miner: 38.35
Aaron: 37.68
Rippon: 36.89
--
Chen: 35.46
--
Dolensky: 34.87
Dorbunsh: 34.80
Hochstein: 32.17
Zhou: 30.11

FS Overall
Brown: 162.39
Chen: 159.63
Rippon: 154.89
Zhou: 145.37
---
Dolensky: 144.03
---
Aaron: 139.48
Miner:135.27
Dornbush: 125.69
Hochstein: 125.28

FS TES
Chen: 88.69
Brown: 79.69
Rippon: 76.79
Zhou: 75.79
---
Dolensky: 72.93
--
Aaron: 66.48
Hochstein: 61.92
Miner: 61.67
Dornbush: 55.79

FS PCS
Brown: 82.70
Rippon: 76.79
Miner: 73.60
Chen: 73.56
--
Aaron: 73.00
--
Dornbush: 71.90
Dolensky: 71.10
Zhou: 70.08
Hochstein: 65.36

 

[Jammers]

Nathans TES will be higher in the SP at Nationals because i think he will do a quad there too unlike in Juniors where it isn't allowed.

 

[andromache]

Nathans TES will be higher in the SP at Nationals because i think he will do a quad there too unlike in Juniors where it isn't allowed.

Good point. Senior-level Nathan has the potential to score more points than junior-level Nathan!

(I forgot this for a moment while looking at the protocols for Nathan's last competition. I was like "WAIT, why didn't he do a quad??" Duh, junior SP requirements.)

 

[Mrs. P]

Nathans TES will be higher in the SP at Nationals because i think he will do a quad there too unlike in Juniors where it isn't allowed.

Yes, that is a good point. I'm looking forward to seeing what he does at the Tallinn Trophy. Just looked it up, Nov. 18-22.

Also Grant Hochstein is doing Tallinn Trophy and then NHK Trophy the following week. It's going to be a busy few weeks for him!

 

[mrrice]

Who's the Men's skater from Arizona. He's blonde and has bushy eyebrows. I remember seeing him on the skating lesson. He did well at Nationals and he and his coach cried in the K n C. As I look at the lists of skaters on this page. I don't think I see his name. I guess I'll have to look him up.

 

[ice coverage]

Who's the Men's skater from Arizona. He's blonde and has bushy eyebrows. I remember seeing him on the skating lesson. He did well at Nationals and he and his coach cried in the K n C. As I look at the lists of skaters on this page. I don't think I see his name. I guess I'll have to look him up.

Pretty sure that you are referring to Doug Razzano, who has retired from competition.

(He already was coaching before he retired, and he continues to coach. Also recently was Team Leader for the USFS contingent to one of the JGPs. Zagreb, IIRC.)

---

ETA, correcting myself:

Doug went to JGP Zagreb as Micah Tang's coach. Doug was Team Leader for the American skaters at the SLC Classic.​

 

[mrrice]

Pretty sure that you are referring to Doug Razzano, who has retired from competition.

(He already was coaching before he retired, and he continues to coach. Also recently was Team Leader for the USFS contingent to one of the JGPs. Zagreb, IIRC.)

That's his name. Thank you Golden411. I seem to have a thing for skater's who actually cry in the Kiss and Cry. How is Alexander Johnson doing? I know he did some shows this summer but, he's not on anyone's lists either. He hasn't retired has he?

 

[dorispulaski]

Doug Razzano? If so, he retired.

 

[ice coverage]

That's his name. Thank you Golden411. I seem to have a thing for skater's who actually cry in the Kiss and Cry. How is Alexander Johnson doing? I know he did some shows this summer but, he's not on anyone's lists either. He has retired has he?

Alex Johnson will be competing this coming week at the Skate Canada Autumn Classic International. As will Sean Rabbitt. Good luck to both .

And Alex has another international assignment coming up later. Don't remember the second one off the top of my head. Maybe Golden Spin of Zagreb?

 

[charmblade]

Super excited to see Alex and Sean at Autumn Classic :dance: They are two of my favorite US men even though I know they're not our top guys. Although honestly, I think I like pretty much all the US men. Such a great group of guys who all seem really nice and supportive of each other.

 

[Skater Boy]

Nathans TES will be higher in the SP at Nationals because i think he will do a quad there too unlike in Juniors where it isn't allowed.

And don't forget US Nationals are known for being the most generous - they used to hand out sixes like for someone who smiled.

 

[el henry]

Just returned from, no joke, picking apples in a Bucks County orchard... saw Adam's LP:

Love the choreo, love the interpretation, and I don't care if he two-footed/fell out of jumps, no d*** quad. Also, I almost always like Adam's costumes, and I'm liking the red and gold.

The problem? Holy moley, which program am I watching? Sensitive emoting to Yesterday? Playful fun with Sgt. Pepper? Saucy sass with "Get Back"? I don't know what that first psychedelic cut was. He did them all really well, but I don't want to see four disjointed routines. Oh well, he did well, and he has that adorable smile.

 

[mrrice]

Holy Cow!! Who is Timothy Dolensky? I just watched his Josh Groban SP and though his jumps weren't very solid, he had great choreography, beautiful spins and, great posture and carriage. Does he have another GP or was this his only assignment?

 

[Mrs. P]

Holy Cow!! Who is Timothy Dolensky? I just watched his Josh Groban SP and though his jumps weren't very solid, he had great choreography, beautiful spins and, great posture and carriage. Does he have another GP or was this his only assignment?

He competed at the U.S. International Figure Skating Classic as well. He will be competing at Skate Canada!

 

[mrrice]

He competed at the U.S. International Figure Skating Classic as well. He will be competing at Skate Canada!

Thank You Mrs. P, I just watched his program again and he actually spins a lot like Stephane Lambiel. Did Stephane choreograph this program?

 

[karne]

Holy Cow!! Who is Timothy Dolensky? I just watched his Josh Groban SP and though his jumps weren't very solid, he had great choreography, beautiful spins and, great posture and carriage. Does he have another GP or was this his only assignment?

He was given one of Josh's ones - Skate Canada. I'm so glad. I first noticed him when he went to Junior Worlds in 2012, and have had a soft spot for him ever since. :yes:

I think Tom Dickson might have done it, but I'm not sure. Timothy does his own choreography sometimes.

 

[TMC]

I loved both of Tim's programs. It was very cool how the audience at Finlandia let out an audible, unanimous "ooh" at some of his spins