Chan v. Hanyu: 2015-16

[Mathman]

We've just seen "PCS adjustment" at Cup of China when Boyang Jin maxed out his TES at 99.6 with 4 quads and 2 3As. The judges capped Jin's PCS at 72.58 (6th highest of the 11 who'd already skated) for a leading score of 171.18+90.05=261.23.

Reigning World Champion Javier Fernandez skated next. He could manage only 3 quads and one 3A with a TES of 86.84 for his lively Guys and Dolls program, so the judges gave Javier a PCS of 91.52, bringing hiis FS score to a winning 177.36+93.19=270.55.

I don't understand what you mean by "PCS adjustment." Jin had high TES, but the judges felt that his skating skills, choreography, etc., were only so-so. Fernandez TES wasn't as huge, but the judges felt that his components were strong.

Isn't that just how the scoring system is supposed to work?

 

[Blades of Passion]

Your argument that it's always been 50/50, so we need to increase the value of PCS makes very little sense.

It makes perfect sense. Why do you think the PCS scores are what they are to begin with? They have been specifically set differently for EVERY discipline, such that they are relatively accurate with technical score someone can receive.

This is abundantly clear in Ice Dance, where the PCS factoring for the Free Dance is only 50% higher than the Short Dance, exactly because that's how the technical elements in those two segments end up scoring!

Firstly, PCS for the short program is perfectly fine

Men can hit 55+ technical in the SP. Women can hit 45+ technical in the SP. The PCS needs to reflect the direction the sport is moving in.

This issue was already considered back in 2010, when everyone realized how huge of a difference there was between the technical score and the PCS in the SP. They decided to remove an entire element from the SP, thus lowering the SP technical scores.

Also I'm not arguing PCS should be worth less

You are. Think about what has been said about where the sport was in the past and what technical elements would have been worth then and what the PCS scores would have been then if CoP existed. The PCS needs to increase to more accurately reflect where the sport is at, otherwise it becomes too much about the technical elements and everything else is devalued.

The "difficulty" needs to be not just about including more difficult elements themselves, but about doing those difficult elements being weaved into a beautiful program and performance. We are seeing people more and more able to incorporate these difficult elements into the programs and give real performances at the same time. That's good and the PCS needs to reflect it, or else people will just stop thinking about how to create the best programs and give the best performances, and instead just try to add another Quad.

Again, the sport is specifically balanced to reflect approximately a 50/50 differential.

 

[Jombi]

I hadn't yet spoke about PCS factoring adjustments in the CoP changes that would help the sport, but the standard has also increased since that time. It's only natural that the PCS will have to increase as the standard of tech difficulty increases, to keep the technical elements and the entire program approximately equal in value.

People are aware of it but I'm not yet sure if there is a ton of urgency for them to change anything yet.

Thanks for your reply and for the link!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Men can hit 55+ technical in the SP. Women can hit 45+ technical in the SP. The PCS needs to reflect the direction the sport is moving in.

Again, the sport is specifically balanced to reflect approximately a 50/50 differential.

And just how many skaters in the field are consistently hitting 55+ technical (none have actually hit 55 - Hanyu is the closest at 54 and change; the other top guys are all less than 53, and those are personal bests).... and 45+ technical in women, and how often is that happening/how many women are doing that on a regular basis?

You're suggesting increasing the max PCS from 50/100 to 55/110 for men and 40/80 to 45/80 for ladies to balance TES and PCS out, but the reality is at the most recent Worlds (and many past Worlds if you go back) the fields (other than maybe the top one or two skaters) haven't even come close to those technical scores.

Top 3 technical scores at Worlds 2015:
Mens SP - 49.92, 48.63, 44.96
Ladies SP - 44.09, 38.03, 37.19
Mens FS - 93.47, 93.10, 88.28
Ladies FS - 66.75, 65.31, 65.15

So if even the best male skater (TES wise) isn't even hitting 50/94 TES (and 3rd place is 45/88) how does it make sense to increase max PCS to 55/110 as a means of "equalizing" TES and PCS? And if the 2nd best TES ladies skater is barely hitting 38/65, how does it make sense to increase SP PCS to 45 (and on that note, shouldn't we decrease FS PCS to "equalize" it to the TES that the top women are achieving/usually achieve?)

I don't get how giving skaters who achieve the highest TES (with usually the highest PCS scores) a *greater* advantage in the PCS spread is helpful in terms of keeping events competitive and fair to other skaters. Higher PCS weighting just creates a greater discrepancy between the top of the pack and everyone else.

 

[Mathman]

^ Good points, but not totally convincing. True, not many men can get 55 in TES in a short program. But then again, not many can get straight 10s in PCS, either.

Adjusting the ceiling to make hypothetical straight 10s the equivalent of the very top TES that anyone can aspired to, that's not such an outrageous suggestion even if no one actually achieves these Herculean feats.

 

[Blades of Passion]

And just how many skaters in the field are consistently hitting 55+ technical and 45+ technical in women

Many will be, by 2018.

Quite a few have already gone well over 50 and 40, which is the current PCS cap in each discipline.

Hanyu is the closest at 54 and change

And that was with ONE quad. He will be adding another. Boyang Jin is going to hit 55 this season as well. His 4Lutz+3Toe combo at Cup of China was underscored on GOE and he can also do a better 3Axel than what he showed in that performance. The 55 is coming. 2 Quads in the SP is going to be standard, unless you can get a minimum of +2 GOE, and many +3's, on every element you do.

I don't get how giving skaters who achieve the highest TES (with usually the highest PCS scores) a *greater* advantage in the PCS spread is helpful in terms of keeping events competitive and fair to other skaters.

Why would the skaters with the highest TES inherently get the highest PCS? You're again talking about bad judging as if the system needs to play into it, instead of fixing the actual problem. Or maybe someone simply IS deserving of incredibly high scores in both TES and PCS. Then they earned it. So what? The rest of the field just has to become more competitive. It raises the quality of the entire sport.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

No, when the majority of skaters aren't scoring on the same level as the favourites, it creates a discrepancy which makes for predictably boring competitions where the top skaters are given an even greater advantage. That doesn't incentivize skaters to improve, it's demoralizing when you're already having to skate clean to keep up and then your opponents are given an even greater advantage. And then instead of feeling like you can improve technically to catch up, you have to hope that the judges respond positively to your artistic improvements.

It doesn't matter that Hanyu or Jin will achieve 55+, when most skaters haven't. And you can't predict most skaters (or even a significant number of skaters) will be getting 55+ TES with two-quad short programs by 2018, that's absurd.

I'm betting if you averaged out the TES of even the top 5 skaters in every World's fields you wouldn't get even close to 35/65 for the ladies (let alone your suggested max PCS of 45/80) or even close to 45/85 for the men (to equate to your suggested PCS max of 55/110).

The maximum score for PCS in men is 50/100, and 99% of the field won't get even 45/95 TES even if they skate the cleanest they can skate. And the ones who can score that high (Chan/Hanyu) don't need a greater PCS advantage than they already have. Same with ladies, unless every girl is pulling out a triple axel come 2018, 45 TES will not be the norm and the faves (eg Mao) do not need an even greater PCS advantage.

Bottom line: it makes little sense to shift the scaling of PCS just because 1-3 skaters are occasionally getting TES that's marginally higher than the max PCS scores. And skaters should be incentivized and rewarded for technical advancements (which are hard to execute consistently anyways)...not held back because they're getting technically too good so we're just gonna raise the weighting of PCS to negate that.

Unless most male skaters are consistently hitting 50/100 TES (which definitely isn't happening any time soon), it doesn't make sense to raise PCS to 55/110 to "equalize". If we see that most skaters are getting TES scores in the range of perfect PCS scores then maybe your argument makes sense.

Also, Boyang wasn't underscored on his quad combo. He didnt have into steps and it was rather telegraphed, and he landed the quad lutz forward on his toe, so a combo that would have gotten +2/+3s was lowered to +1/+2. The same thing happened to Pitkeev's GOE on his SP quad at Skate America (you should look at the landing before assuming bad judging).

 

[Blades of Passion]

No, when the majority of skaters aren't scoring on the same level as the favourites

Again, you keep trying to push this thing of "top skaters are being overscored, the judging will always be like this, we we need to structure the system around it."

No. Train the judges better. Don't hold new skaters down. Don't hold established skaters up. Start using GOE and PCS more accurately. Change other aspects of the scoring system to reward difficult elements more appropriately, if they are not worth enough already. That is the solution. Not making the scoring system worse to artificially make it seem like things will be more fair. If the judging isn't fair enough, then the "chosen" skaters are going to win anyway, unless they totally bomb. There is a HUGE amount of scoring differential available between tech calls, GOE, and PCS. Better judging is the only thing that will fix it.

And you can't predict a significant number of skaters will be getting 55+ TES with two-quad short programs by 2018, that's absurd.

Of course I can predict it, I am great predictor. Please don't be upset at me for mastering the crystal ball technique.

But, really, the point is that WHEN it changes, the PCS will need to accommodate it. Just for a moment, instead of being so defensive, imagine it DOES happen. That we have many guys consistently doing 55+ TES. The PCS will need to appropriately have enough of a differential or else it will just start being like a technical laboratory, with the skaters working to max out GOE's as almost their sole focus, instead of trying to make their skating as a whole better in order to create a significant PCS differential between themselves and other competitors.

This year alone Hanyu could hit 55 TES in the SP with just 1 Quad. Boyang will hit it. The field is obviously going to respond to it and similarly raise their level. If 2 skaters are able to hit 55 TES this season, that alone is enough reason to change the PCS factoring. Same for if they hit 105+ TES in the LP.

Also, Boyang wasn't underscored on his quad combo.

He was!! The quad was massive and perfectly backwards completely in the air, with barely any pre-rotation even, and he did footwork out of it. It was +2 GOE worthy.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Of course I can predict it, I am great predictor. Please don't be upset at me for mastering the crystal ball technique.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

If it becomes a regular thing, sure but it won't happen. And if it happens twice, that is still just an anomaly. Especially if your PCS scoring change is beneficial to a skater like Hanyu who is already technically advantaged himself over the field. It will create a wider PCS gap. Mathematically speaking the skaters who score higher on the PCS scale will score more net points. And it doesn't make competitions more interesting if you're granting an even greater advantage to the skaters who are already winning them (and likely by insurmountable margins at that).

Your suggestion is fine only if all the skaters on the whole start averaging a score that nears your higher PCS maximums. But that is SO far from happening. Look at 2014 Olympics, you would think at that point every man would be capable of one clean quad, and you're suggesting by 2018 the norm will be men landing two quads in the SP? The current world number 3 is incapable of doing one fully rotated quad, let alone two different ones.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Oh, as far as your ability to predict, I think we all know your crystal balls aren't as big as you seem to think they are.

 

[4everchan]

lol.. i almost edited your post in the quote to remove one word...

but seriously... here is what i would like to say to all of this discussion:

who are the guys who are consistent with multiple quads??

pretty much nobody...

javier and hanyu and nam all have 4T and 4S... but the 4S is often iffy...

there's kovtun I guess as well in that category... maybe max too???

that's all...

Jin has 4Lz, and 4T... 4S also looks iffy

I think that's it... and that's only a handful of skaters.... and I can't say that any of them is really reliable....

I feel like we are in a progressive and exciting development phase of the sport... the 4T goes back to kurt browning... what 20+ years ago? and it's not even owned by half of the skaters... i mean many still struggle with the 3A..... so eventhough we are all excited this season, before THIS LEVEL becomes consistent, many crystal balls will have been broken.... I'd say that in ten-fifteen years, we will start seeing guys with two CONSISTENT quads... and then, it will take another long period of time before it becomes 3... if it ever gets there.... the progression in figure skating for men is reaching a plateau... will we ever see 4A???? i doubt it... will we ever see 5T? is it even physically possible?

it's time to think along those lines... we are slowly reaching this plateau... WHEN WE ARE THERE, it will be meaningful to adjust the COP... right now, I tend to agree with CSG... raising PCS is simply going to give even more of an edge to the 4 or 5 who are already ahead.... there are other ways to make skating more exciting... bring back another Step sequence for instance... allow for 3A to be repeated without counting in ZAYAK (that way skaters could repeat both the 4s and 4t, and have 2 triple axels... (if i am not mistaken the 2A is allowed to be repeated so bring the rule up to 3A)... that would advantage the technical skaters, that would promote development of the sport... and FINALLY : judges: do not give out 9-10 on pcs so easily

Oh, as far as your ability to predict, I think we all know your crystal balls aren't as big as you seem to think they are.

 

[Interspectator]

So far this year Max Aaron, Shoma Uno, Yuzuru, Javi, Boyang, Murakami Daisuke, Daniel Samohain, Nam Ngyuen and Nathan Chen have all landed 2 or more quads in their long programs, did I miss anyone?

Of those, Daniel, Boyang, Javi, Nam and Yuzu have landed 2 kinds of quads in their programs. That's quite a lot for so early in the season.

Nam has landed all his attempted quads this season
Yuzu is 2 for 2 in his quad salchows and 2 hand downs, 1 success and one fall for his 4T in the LP this season

 

[4everchan]

i am talking about 2 different quads (ie not the same type of quad landed twice, one in combo and one solo) , clean and consistent. and when considering that Yuzu and Javier haven't been flawless, the top two men, you can see where I am going to...

i mean the best skate of the year had only one quad landed

So far this year Max Aaron, Shoma Uno, Yuzuru, Javi, Boyang, Murakami Daisuke, Daniel Samohain, Nam Ngyuen and Nathan Chen have all landed 2 or more quads in their long programs, did I miss anyone?

Of those, Daniel, Boyang, Javi, Nam and Yuzu have landed 2 kinds of quads in their programs. That's quite a lot for so early in the season.

Nam has landed all his attempted quads this season
Yuzu is 2 for 2 in his quad salchows and 2 hand downs, 1 success and one fall for his 4T in the LP this season

 

[Interspectator]

i am talking about 2 different quads (ie not the same type of quad landed twice, one in combo and one solo) , clean and consistent. and when considering that Yuzu and Javier haven't been flawless, the top two men, you can see where I am going to...

i mean the best skate of the year had only one quad landed

what is the percentage for consistent then? Above 60% success?

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

lol.. i almost edited your post in the quote to remove one word...

Hah, I thought about it too.

I agree with your post. There are only about 10 guys who can consistently land 1 type of quad; only 6 Fernandez/Hanyu/Menshov/Kovtun/Jin/Samohin who currently attempt and land 2 (or more with Jin!) different quads. Saying 2 quads in the SP will be the standard is a pretty crystal ballsy prediction and as much as I would love to see that, it ain't gonna happen.

 

[4everchan]

i'd say about 75-80… or even higher… consistent like a 3LZ would be


so I checked a bit more protocols… Uno only does the 4T, Aaron the 4S… so they are both not even on the list… it is the same with Daniel, Dice and Chen (only doing 4T or 4S but NOT BOTH) … Menshov does both...

what is the percentage for consistent then? Above 60% success?

 

[4everchan]

there's Nam too (well i am guessing he will re-add his 4S… strange that it was the first quad he learned and that he didn't do it at SC and did 2 4Ts) and well if ever Kevin comes back

Hah, I thought about it too.

I agree with your post. There are only about 10 guys who can consistently land 1 type of quad; only 6 Fernandez/Hanyu/Menshov/Kovtun/Jin/Samohin who currently attempt and land 2 (or more with Jin!) different quads. Saying 2 quads in the SP will be the standard is a pretty crystal ballsy prediction and as much as I would love to see that, it ain't gonna happen.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Especially if your PCS scoring change is beneficial to a skater like Hanyu who is already technically advantaged himself over the field. It will create a wider PCS gap. Mathematically speaking the skaters who score higher on the PCS scale will score more net points.

This makes no sense. Of course someone who scores higher PCS will net more points. It is possible for someone to be the best at both TES and PCS over the entire field. If they are better, then they are better. Why wouldn't they deserve to be scored as such? People need to get on that level or they lose. That's kind of, you know, what happens in a competition. What are you even trying to say?

An updated PCS factor would benefit Chan more than anyone else in the current field, FYI.

Your suggestion is fine only if all the skaters on the whole start averaging a score that nears your higher PCS maximums.

What are you talking about "all" skaters?? :dumb:

Not everyone is going to be able to constantly get the highest level of TES, just as everyone isn't going to be able to get the highest level of PCS. The maximums are simply that - maximum's. Do you think 6.0's were handed out like candy back in the day just because 6.0 existed? No, they weren't.

But that is SO far from happening. Look at 2014 Olympics, you would think at that point every man would be capable of one clean quad.

Every man on the podium IS capable of one clean quad. It's been that way since the 2010-2011 season. Everybody on the World/Olympic/GPF podium has a quad.

2 quads in the SP is going to become the norm very soon, whether you like or not.

 

[4everchan]

This makes no sense. Of course someone who scores higher PCS will net more points. It is possible for someone to be the best at both TES and PCS over the entire field. If they are better, then they are better. Why wouldn't they deserve to be scored as such? People need to get on that level or they lose. That's kind of, you know, what happens in a competition. What are you even trying to say?

An updated PCS factor would benefit Chan more than anyone else in the current field, FYI.



What are you talking about "all" skaters?? :dumb:

Not everyone is going to be able to constantly get the highest level of TES, just as everyone isn't going to be able to get the highest level of PCS. The maximums are simply that - maximum's. Do you think 6.0's were handed out like candy back in the day just because 6.0 existed? No, they weren't.



Every man on the podium IS capable of one clean quad. It's been that way since the 2010-2011 season. Everybody on the World/Olympic/GPF podium has a quad.

2 quads in the SP is going to become the norm very soon, whether you like or not.

define very soon… skaters who already have two different quads still opt to only use on in the SP…