Chan v. Hanyu: 2015-16
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- Sep 14, 2008
Next season. It's happening.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2015
okay.. so let's quit speculating about this now, focusing on this current season 
and next year, we can reconnect… leaving you to your crystal for now. ciao bello!
and next year, we can reconnect… leaving you to your crystal for now. ciao bello!
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
My point was that a skater who gets 90/100 points PCS like Hanyu has a 20-point advantage over a skater who gets 70 points PCS. Under your new scaling, essentially a 10% increase, Hanyu would get 99 points versus 77 points, a 22-point advantage ... Hence your system gives more PCS points (net) than the current system does to skaters with higher PCS.
And no, I *dont* want Chan and Hanyu and the top guys to get more of an advantage than they already have thanks to the current PCS gap. I don't want results like Cup of China 2014 and Worlds 2015 and under your suggested system, the margin between Hanyu/Chan and their competitors would have been even greater.
And no, I *dont* want Chan and Hanyu and the top guys to get more of an advantage than they already have thanks to the current PCS gap. I don't want results like Cup of China 2014 and Worlds 2015 and under your suggested system, the margin between Hanyu/Chan and their competitors would have been even greater.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
Okay then talk to us in a year. By your own admission, your proposed new PCS system is currently irrelevant.
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- Sep 14, 2008
What's your point? A skater can deserve to have a 22 point gap in PCS over another skater.
Once again, if you bothered reading, that completely comes down to the judging. Those results are ALWAYS going to happen unless the judging itself is fixed.
Also, the judging system itself was part of the problem at Cup of China 2014, because mistakes on jumps are not punished enough in the current system. That problem was slightly addressed this season, mistakes on quads are now a little more costly, but -GOE on jumps is still too forgiving (unless the jump is also underrotated, those are scored accurately now).
Okay then talk to us in a year. By your own admission, your proposed new PCS system is currently irrelevant.
No it isn't. Exactly as I said, maximums are maximums. Since the updated SP rules of the 2010-2011 season, we've already seen skaters achieve higher TES than the possible maximum PCS they can achieve. That's been happening since 2011 Worlds, when Chan received 51.48 as his TES.
It's completely obvious a new technical level is being modernized with what Hanyu, Boyang, and others are doing this season. The PCS should be changed for next season, so that skaters DO realize it is important and they should work on all aspects of their skating, not JUST work on trying to get multiple quads.
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2014
At CoC Javi PCS is 91.52 vs Jin 72.58, already 18.94 difference.
Patrick highest PCS is 96.50, if with the 10% it will be 106.15. So if this versus 77 PCS skater, it will be in the range of 29.15 advantage...prob the max so far.
Probably judges can just scale everyone back :think:
Patrick highest PCS is 96.50, if with the 10% it will be 106.15. So if this versus 77 PCS skater, it will be in the range of 29.15 advantage...prob the max so far.
Probably judges can just scale everyone back :think:
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- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
i mean the best skate of the year had only one quad landed
Yes, it's a shame Yuzuru popped his 4T at WTT. But there were still 2 beautiful 3As!
Hey, you said year, not season
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2014
Yes, it's a shame Yuzuru popped his 4T at WTT. But there were still 2 beautiful 3As!
Hey, you said year, not season
And the 4S
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I kinda understand the PCs issue.
But.
First, we would need it to start happen consistently - the achieved TES being higher than PCs not because the artistry is not there, but because the TES is plain high.
For now, it is still proportional - exceptionally high TES and exceptionally high PCs, normal TES and normal PCs.
But.
First, we would need it to start happen consistently - the achieved TES being higher than PCs not because the artistry is not there, but because the TES is plain high.
For now, it is still proportional - exceptionally high TES and exceptionally high PCs, normal TES and normal PCs.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2015
i see what some people do right, twisting words to their advantage... as we all know, figure skating year starts in the summer, they even mention it in this forum and as far as POTO is concerned, I think we have heard it enough
and as far as POTO is concerned, I think we have heard it enough
Yes, it's a shame Yuzuru popped his 4T at WTT. But there were still 2 beautiful 3As!
Hey, you said year, not season
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
What has said skater done to earn the extra 2 PCS points (90 vs 70 becomes 99 vs 77)? At least when skaters' TES breach the max PCS it's because they've actually hit harder/more quality elements. Figure skating should always be about skaters earning their placements. And as far as judging goes, as much as you say judging needs to be fixed (and it does), increasing the value of the subjective mark only gives them more power, and allows judges to "save" technically bad performances that much more than they already do.
Also, your numbers are weird - nobody is going to like a score out of 55 or out of 110. It's not like when skaters started winning with quads instead of just triple axels the 6.0 system became out of 6.5 to accommodate for more difficult performances compared to past 6.0-worthy performances -- because that would have been weird.
You make no sense about changing a system now for a supposed technical advances next season. Again, before it happens, changing the system is irrelevant. If you think the guys are all going to be landing 2 quad programs to get 55+ TES, I wonder what else your crystal balls predict - are the ladies all going to be landing triple axels and four triple SPs in order to get 40+ TES (to justify your increase to 45)? :sarcasm:
Maybe you need bigger/better crystal balls because your current ones are looking rather unimpressive.
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- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
i see what some people do right, twisting words to their advantage... as we all know, figure skating year starts in the summer, they even mention it in this forum
Not really, I've seen people talk about their "favorite programs of the year" as in calendar years too. And it was more of a joke anyway
I wouldn't call anything the skate of the season so far though, as we're not even close to the halfway point of it.
- Joined
- Feb 10, 2015
The third episode of the Italian program "Tutti Con Ambesi"!! Massimiliano and Angelo analyze Yuzuru and Patrick's scores at Skate Canada for over 80 minutes!! (translated by Carolina Corsali, Lys Alton and Greta Beltrami for YHIFG )Max and Angelo aren't fans. They are probably the most knowledgeable people on figure skating in Italy or among the very best.
TRANSLATION:
Ambesi starts the discussion pointing out how Chan vs Hanyu topic is very complex and how, to understand Skate Canada results, it’s needed first to divide the discussion in two parts (short program and free program) and then to get in some depth over what GOE and PCS are and how they are given out.
Ambesi remarks that there have been many discussions over the result, and although Patrick Chan probably deserved his overall win, what surprised the most was the advantage he put up in the free.
Many gave their opinion on the topic (experts, coaches) and among them Plushenko too. Here they sum up Plushenko interview.
Ambesi keeps going, underlining how Yuzu and Chan both did mistakes on two elements in the short, but how Yuzu’s were more costly since he got two invalid elements, while Chan made an error on the Axel, but he still brought the points for the element home.
They starts then explaining why Yuzuru lost both elements and how it may seem simple from the outside to know what to do in any situation, but it’s very hard for the skater.
Ambesi points out Yuzuru had basically four options on the last combo:
1) 3lz+3t - so to complete his planned layout.
2) 3lz+2t - what he did, resulting on losing the element
3) 3lz+1t - in this case 1T wouldn’t be counted and he’d have -3 GOE on the combo, but 3lz points would be counted.
4) 3lz alone - as before -3 on the combo
Dolfini points out how judges could choose not to give him -3 on the last option, and put the “+ combo” on the failed 2t, since Yuzu does steps even before his 3lz and technically you could consider his 3lz as the solo jump (no matter if everybody knows about his layout).
Ambesi adds that of course these are minor details, because Yuzu started the 3lz to do the full combo, so not easy to think about possible change on Lutz landing.
They go over on some other “what if” scenarios (4t opened to 3t and then 3lz+3t, or what would happen if his combo and solo jumps were reversed).
Ambesi says again how complex it is for the skater, because if it’s true that all skaters have “plan B”, probably Yuzu was not ready for that, especially since he basically never pops that 4T, he may fall on it, maybe with a UR, but he rarely pops jumps.
According to Ambesi, after watching and watching again that jump, what happened was he was too close to the rails (he actually says “Hanyu feels he’s too close to crash into the rails”) and opened the jump.
Dolfini thinks it’s a good explanation and remarks again how, on the combo, it’s not easy to change your second jump AFTER starting the first one.
Ambesi points out how his choice not to try anything more than 1T the next day on 3A+1T was a consequence of what had happened in the short program. He didn’t want to try anything more and risk a fall. (They discuss then a bit on his options there, like not to do any combo, but to postpone it on the final 3lz, of course since he fell on the 3lz nothing changes).
Back to the short program: according to some people pcs for Hanyu were too high. Ambesi is totally contrary to this interpretation. He underlines how 4 of 5 of pcs components are in no way diminished for Yuzuru errors, since he DID all his jumping passes, and there have been no changes in choreography and transitions, nor skating skills have been impoverished. The same could be said on Interpretation.
According to him his pcs were perfectly right there, they’d be higher (on PE, especially) had he had no mistakes. But over 44 were his right marks for the night and showed that the system can works right.
Dolfini agrees and adds that Yuzu has quite an advantage on PCS in the short program over his competitors, especially on skating skill, transitions and choreography thanks to his ability to have very short jumps preparations (he’s got transition INTO the jumps) and his ability to pull off hard and intricate jumps entries. He underlines again how the real error at Skate Canada has been one (on the 4t), since the combo has been invalidated but it wasn’t an invalid element per se. According to him, Yuzuru has quite a margin over the others in the short program.
They both agree that 73 is the right score for him on the night.
The difference with Chan was obviously that Chan had 2 mistakes but 3 jumps out of 4 counted anyway. Ambesi points out the judge giving him -1 on 3A fall. Dolfini and he both agree that is very questionable and must be an error, maybe even “mechanical” (wrong button pushed), because there’s no other explanation [without putting in question the judge's good faith]. That fall, they say, on a jump done without a difficult entry and that wasn’t particularly good otherwise, deserved a -3 from all judges.
Axel aside, the real mistake from Chan was on 3Lz popped at 2Lz. Ambesi remarks how that 3Lz was the only jump in both Patrick Chan’s programs executed with a step before it. They start then speaking about the “new” Chan. The “new” Chan has made his skating way much easier than in the past. He does no longer transitions and steps before jumps [they will go over it later on, too], and of course he CAN jump out of steps, but it’s not a coincidence he popped his only jump out of steps in Canada.
They then start speaking about the “out-of-step(s)” rule in the short program and how little is actually applied. Ambesi's idea is for the technical panel to call out the step(s) before the jump. If technical specialists don’t call it, to the final GOE given by the judges must be added -3.
They go quite in depth on this analysis, pointing out how skaters who don’t cheat on the rule (like Yuzuru but also Chan) are penalized, since they DO their steps, taking more risks.
Dolfini points out how “cheating” on steps give skaters other unfair advantages (on layout, on quads). He adds that judges would also need a benchmark to decide what they can consider as step and what they can’t.
They then do a little excursus on judges career (and who is or has been a judge: coaches/ex athletes/etc.) and on differences between judges and technical panel.
They wrap up this topic saying that of course tech panel can get the step call wrong, but a decision from three people would be better than free judgment from judges (not always ready to value the technical aspects among the other things they need to judge upon).
They start then speaking over the free programs, pointing out how Skate Canada had quite a good overall quality.
First thing they point out again is the difference between Chan now and in Olympic season and how he has now more speed before jumps and no transition (before jump elements): he tries not to do anything complex before jumps, so to get more height, speed and flow and to stress in this way his qualities on skating skills (speed and fluidity), Ambesi points out how speed and being smooth and fluid are only part of what skating skills is, but skating skills is more than that. That “something more” is what Yuzu put in his programs and Chan does not (now).
Yuzu doesn’t have Chan's speed, but in terms of transition and complexity and hard steps, his programs are way ahead of what Chan does now. Of course Chan does have many transitions, but they are all in what you can call the “choreographic” part of the program, never before jumps elements.
They concur that this could be Chan strategy to compete with Yuzuru: to execute all his elements in the cleanest way possible, so to make his skating shine. Chan and Yuzu have now completely different strategies, they are poles apart. Two very different approaches, from two great skaters (among the very best ever).
Patrick put a lot of transitions and steps in between the jumps, but a bit far from their entrances and in this way he has a rich choreography. According to Angelo, Patrick's choreo is better than Yuzuru's in terms of maturity ( of interpretation and expression).
They digress talking about PCS and how the five different components in PCS always overlap each other, and even transitions and footwork are part of the choreography, and if a skaters does difficult entrances to the jumps, really few cross-over and difficult steps he is showing really great skating skills, and Yuzu's slight superiority in skating skill is not because of the speed but because of his difficult steps, and his incredible, great ability to maintain the flow doing difficult steps without pushing and with very few cross-over
They point out that this is exactly the opposite of what happened in the past, now Chan has more cross over than before and Yuzu has less.
They then talk about jumps and how GOE are assigned: there are 8 points used to determine GOE and at least 4 of them are needed to have +2.00
Patrick hit at least 4 of them: his jumps are apparently effortless, have a good speed, good ice coverage and good flow and speed after the landing.
Yuzu has a more difficult program and all of his jumps have difficult entry, but this is only 1 of the requirements and Yuzuru's jumps are also effortless, have great ice coverage and when he does them well have great landing and flow.
They point out that Yuzuru has transition before the jumps and this should count as for Transitions of course but also for choreography and skating skills so this should reflect in his scores.
Both program are very complex even if in different ways
Chan is superior in choreography and interpretation, skating skills they are at the same level, (even if they show different aspects of what skating skills entail) while in transitions Yuzuru is slightly above Chan,
They go on saying that Yuzuru's program is much more difficult than Patrick's especially due to the entries to the jumps.
They digress here again saying that some of the entries, especially the one to the second quad toe loop in the FS, will be probably revised because it's really way too hard and complex.
Here, they tell a funny story about Brian e Joseph Sabocki (a skater from Czechoslovakia known especially for his jumps) doing a quad battle during the practice of a competition, and Brian did his quad toeloop with an entrance similar to the one Yuzuru does on the second quad in the FS (and on the 4T in the SP) and Angelo bursts out laughing because Brian told Yuzu that he didn't like that entrance, when he himself did it !!!
Ambesi explains why Yuzuru has an entrance so difficult to the second quad toe loop in the FS : because in this way the quad is better integrated in the choreography, and Yuzuru does it almost from nowhere, while Patrick has a long preparation for both quads, and judges, when evaluating choreography, transition, skating skills and GOEs should consider this aspect too because there is a skater that found a way to improve his quality on this aspect and make the jumps even more difficult.
Angelo points out that Yuzuru in this way is trying to do something difficult, different and creative especially with the quads, while most part of the skaters has very long preparation. Yuzu also has really short preparation also for his triple Jumps.
They talk about the flip, saying that now Yuzuru does it apparently from nowhere with a difficult transition before it and he got +2.00 in GOE and according to them he deserved even a +3.00 and since it is perfectly integrated in the choreography and Yuzuru does it apparently form nowhere, this should be reflected in all the components they were talking about.
They point out how Yuzuru with this entrance got another result: now his flip (Ambesi says that this is, historically, Yuzuru's worst jump) has the correct inside edge at the take off.
They go back to analyze why Patrick won: in their opinion it was because of the clean execution and speed, but each competition is different from another, and it's not sure that in future competitions the evaluation criteria will be the same. Ambesi thinks that after Skate Canada there will be an accurate analysis of what happened and maybe some doubts will arise.
They say that this doesn't mean that Patrick was overscored in PCS, but that Yuzu was underscored on some of PCS points, especially transitions, Yuzu had 0,80 points less than Chan, but for Ambesi he should be 0.20, 0.30 point ahead, so maybe the judges were influenced by Patrick's performance. And it has been difficult even for them to explain the 6.20 difference between Patrick and Yuzuru in the PCS score in FS
They then talk about GOE. Patrick had a high GOE on every element in the program and even on spins.
They digress a bit on Patrick's and Yuzuru's spins (going in a very deep and technical analysis of their spins and execution), concluding that Patrick has good spins, but the reduced the gap with Yuzuru can be explained only by the judges being impressed by Patrick performance and getting carried away also on the other elements: an odd situation, but something that can happen in a single competition.
Ambesi adds that maybe the Jugdes were mesmerized by Patrick performance and they gave a +1 more than what they usually would.
Step sequence: they say that Patrick here was perfect and that he used the upper part of the body better than Yuzuru, and the +3.00 he got are justified also because Patrick is very precise and clean in the footwork, while Yuzuru can improve especially with the upper part of the body and get level 4. They say that Yuzuru's sequence is very consuming physically.
They say that it is very difficult to evaluate the step sequence and for this often the panel decides to split to evaluate different aspect, like footwork, upper body, ability to go in both direction.
They point out that Yuzuru [during his program] goes in both directions without any difference, while Patrick goes more in one direction than the other.
Yuzuru can rotate in both direction and then they explain in details the hard entrance to the 3A 1Lo 3S, stressing out how insanely difficult it is. They point out that some judge gave -1.00 GOE to that combo, and it is really difficult to explain this again!! And while they point out that Yuzuru had a little stumble before it, he was able to land the combination with good execution.
They can't explain how he did it, and that only his immense talent can support something like this. To give – 1.00 to this element really took some guts!!!! [You can hear them laughing, baffled, over it, TN]
Massimiliano and Angelo digress over the two different entries Yuzu and Patrick have on the 3A.
While Patrick needs a lot of crossovers to be able to gain the necessary speed to go into the 3A, Yuzu is able to maintain the speed throughout an intricate step sequences which leads to his first 3A3T combo.
They discuss how Yuzuru decided to upgrade his programs with difficult entries on every jump (except for the 4S) and how this can complicate the outcome on one hand, but gain lots of points with GOEs on the other. They take the entry of his 4T in the short as an example; according to Massimiliano this jump (when he lands it cleanly) should receive +3 GOE automatically, because it doesn't have a step before it, it has an intricate step sequence before it!
They point out how Yuzu's layout could be risky, because of all those crazy entries that could complicate or compromise the jumps, but also how it would be impossible for anyone else to beat him if he manages to stand on his feet in both programs.
They remark how unusual it is to see Yuzu this fit and ready to go in the first GP and they wonder what should we expect for the latter part of the season, where the big competitions are (meaning that this could be an extraordinary season for him).
Digression over Patrick and his performances here at SC and at TEB in 2013. The program he skated in TEB was more difficult than the one he skated in SC, but both got him enormous GOEs. This probably means that when he manages to skate clean, his speed and quality on the jumps impress the judges very much.
They explain how he changed the 3Lz-1Lo-3S combo he used to have in the latter half with the easier 3Lz-2T-2Lo, in order to have less pressure on landing this combo and more flow on the landing leaving a better impression on his performance.
Massimiliano thinks Patrick planned his comeback very carefully, maybe also taking cue from Kostner's approach in the Olympic season. Probably Patrick thinks that with an easier layout he would be able to score more than with a harder one, because skating clean (with less pressure on landing difficult jumps) will give him higher GOEs. Angelo remarks that his strategy can be successful, but it needs a help from his competitors. When others make huge mistakes (like Yuzu in the SP), Patrick can beat them.
Little digression over Yuzu's SP and how he remarked his disappointment about it in the press conference. They say that, as a matter of fact, this was the second time Yuzu skated his SP with this layout in competition, so at the end of the day the mistake on the 4T is “forgivable”, as he isn't experienced, yet.
Massimiliano and Angelo both agree that the gap in the TES should have been higher in Yuzu's favor and how also on the PCS there were some “misinterpretations”.
For instance, they say that on SS the mark should be at least equal, or even higher for Yuzuru and how the Transitions/Linking Footwork mark needs a clarification: i.e. is a transition in the middle of the program more valuable than one right before a jump? If the answer is yes, maybe there's something wrong in the judgment.
They remark how Yuzu's free skate is the hardest free skate ever seen in figure skating and how this highlights his intentions to push the limit of the discipline and move to another level of skating.
Little mention to another athlete who is pushing the limit for other reasons: Boyang Jin. His strategy can be summarized like this “Ok, I can't compete with them on the PCS, all I can do is push my TES to unknown limits and hope that PCS will grow accordingly if I manage to skate clean and land everything”. They agree that this strategy can work for him, but how on the other hand he can't be a match for Hanyu and Chan because on the PCS the gap is too big for Boyang.
They conclude their analysis saying that they tried their best to give a plausible explanation to the scoring in SC and how we can agree on some evaluations and disagree on others, but in the end the result was somehow predictable.
What they want to highlight is that it's not sure that in the following competitions, given the same performances, the results will be the same.
Last fun fact, taking cue from Plushenko's statement “North American skaters are advantaged in north American competitions”, Angelo and Massimiliano point out how, looking back at the Grand Prix's story, the nation that wins more medals is always the one who hosts the event. And this happens for two main reasons: number one, the hosting fed usually puts its top skaters in the home event; number two, there is in fact more “benevolence” towards the home athletes.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1610393525875114/permalink/1653456464902153/https://www.spreaker.com/user/neveitalia/tutti-con-ambesi-terza-puntata
TRANSLATION:
Ambesi starts the discussion pointing out how Chan vs Hanyu topic is very complex and how, to understand Skate Canada results, it’s needed first to divide the discussion in two parts (short program and free program) and then to get in some depth over what GOE and PCS are and how they are given out.
Ambesi remarks that there have been many discussions over the result, and although Patrick Chan probably deserved his overall win, what surprised the most was the advantage he put up in the free.
Many gave their opinion on the topic (experts, coaches) and among them Plushenko too. Here they sum up Plushenko interview.
Ambesi keeps going, underlining how Yuzu and Chan both did mistakes on two elements in the short, but how Yuzu’s were more costly since he got two invalid elements, while Chan made an error on the Axel, but he still brought the points for the element home.
They starts then explaining why Yuzuru lost both elements and how it may seem simple from the outside to know what to do in any situation, but it’s very hard for the skater.
Ambesi points out Yuzuru had basically four options on the last combo:
1) 3lz+3t - so to complete his planned layout.
2) 3lz+2t - what he did, resulting on losing the element
3) 3lz+1t - in this case 1T wouldn’t be counted and he’d have -3 GOE on the combo, but 3lz points would be counted.
4) 3lz alone - as before -3 on the combo
Dolfini points out how judges could choose not to give him -3 on the last option, and put the “+ combo” on the failed 2t, since Yuzu does steps even before his 3lz and technically you could consider his 3lz as the solo jump (no matter if everybody knows about his layout).
Ambesi adds that of course these are minor details, because Yuzu started the 3lz to do the full combo, so not easy to think about possible change on Lutz landing.
They go over on some other “what if” scenarios (4t opened to 3t and then 3lz+3t, or what would happen if his combo and solo jumps were reversed).
Ambesi says again how complex it is for the skater, because if it’s true that all skaters have “plan B”, probably Yuzu was not ready for that, especially since he basically never pops that 4T, he may fall on it, maybe with a UR, but he rarely pops jumps.
According to Ambesi, after watching and watching again that jump, what happened was he was too close to the rails (he actually says “Hanyu feels he’s too close to crash into the rails”) and opened the jump.
Dolfini thinks it’s a good explanation and remarks again how, on the combo, it’s not easy to change your second jump AFTER starting the first one.
Ambesi points out how his choice not to try anything more than 1T the next day on 3A+1T was a consequence of what had happened in the short program. He didn’t want to try anything more and risk a fall. (They discuss then a bit on his options there, like not to do any combo, but to postpone it on the final 3lz, of course since he fell on the 3lz nothing changes).
Back to the short program: according to some people pcs for Hanyu were too high. Ambesi is totally contrary to this interpretation. He underlines how 4 of 5 of pcs components are in no way diminished for Yuzuru errors, since he DID all his jumping passes, and there have been no changes in choreography and transitions, nor skating skills have been impoverished. The same could be said on Interpretation.
According to him his pcs were perfectly right there, they’d be higher (on PE, especially) had he had no mistakes. But over 44 were his right marks for the night and showed that the system can works right.
Dolfini agrees and adds that Yuzu has quite an advantage on PCS in the short program over his competitors, especially on skating skill, transitions and choreography thanks to his ability to have very short jumps preparations (he’s got transition INTO the jumps) and his ability to pull off hard and intricate jumps entries. He underlines again how the real error at Skate Canada has been one (on the 4t), since the combo has been invalidated but it wasn’t an invalid element per se. According to him, Yuzuru has quite a margin over the others in the short program.
They both agree that 73 is the right score for him on the night.
The difference with Chan was obviously that Chan had 2 mistakes but 3 jumps out of 4 counted anyway. Ambesi points out the judge giving him -1 on 3A fall. Dolfini and he both agree that is very questionable and must be an error, maybe even “mechanical” (wrong button pushed), because there’s no other explanation [without putting in question the judge's good faith]. That fall, they say, on a jump done without a difficult entry and that wasn’t particularly good otherwise, deserved a -3 from all judges.
Axel aside, the real mistake from Chan was on 3Lz popped at 2Lz. Ambesi remarks how that 3Lz was the only jump in both Patrick Chan’s programs executed with a step before it. They start then speaking about the “new” Chan. The “new” Chan has made his skating way much easier than in the past. He does no longer transitions and steps before jumps [they will go over it later on, too], and of course he CAN jump out of steps, but it’s not a coincidence he popped his only jump out of steps in Canada.
They then start speaking about the “out-of-step(s)” rule in the short program and how little is actually applied. Ambesi's idea is for the technical panel to call out the step(s) before the jump. If technical specialists don’t call it, to the final GOE given by the judges must be added -3.
They go quite in depth on this analysis, pointing out how skaters who don’t cheat on the rule (like Yuzuru but also Chan) are penalized, since they DO their steps, taking more risks.
Dolfini points out how “cheating” on steps give skaters other unfair advantages (on layout, on quads). He adds that judges would also need a benchmark to decide what they can consider as step and what they can’t.
They then do a little excursus on judges career (and who is or has been a judge: coaches/ex athletes/etc.) and on differences between judges and technical panel.
They wrap up this topic saying that of course tech panel can get the step call wrong, but a decision from three people would be better than free judgment from judges (not always ready to value the technical aspects among the other things they need to judge upon).
They start then speaking over the free programs, pointing out how Skate Canada had quite a good overall quality.
First thing they point out again is the difference between Chan now and in Olympic season and how he has now more speed before jumps and no transition (before jump elements): he tries not to do anything complex before jumps, so to get more height, speed and flow and to stress in this way his qualities on skating skills (speed and fluidity), Ambesi points out how speed and being smooth and fluid are only part of what skating skills is, but skating skills is more than that. That “something more” is what Yuzu put in his programs and Chan does not (now).
Yuzu doesn’t have Chan's speed, but in terms of transition and complexity and hard steps, his programs are way ahead of what Chan does now. Of course Chan does have many transitions, but they are all in what you can call the “choreographic” part of the program, never before jumps elements.
They concur that this could be Chan strategy to compete with Yuzuru: to execute all his elements in the cleanest way possible, so to make his skating shine. Chan and Yuzu have now completely different strategies, they are poles apart. Two very different approaches, from two great skaters (among the very best ever).
Patrick put a lot of transitions and steps in between the jumps, but a bit far from their entrances and in this way he has a rich choreography. According to Angelo, Patrick's choreo is better than Yuzuru's in terms of maturity ( of interpretation and expression).
They digress talking about PCS and how the five different components in PCS always overlap each other, and even transitions and footwork are part of the choreography, and if a skaters does difficult entrances to the jumps, really few cross-over and difficult steps he is showing really great skating skills, and Yuzu's slight superiority in skating skill is not because of the speed but because of his difficult steps, and his incredible, great ability to maintain the flow doing difficult steps without pushing and with very few cross-over
They point out that this is exactly the opposite of what happened in the past, now Chan has more cross over than before and Yuzu has less.
They then talk about jumps and how GOE are assigned: there are 8 points used to determine GOE and at least 4 of them are needed to have +2.00
Patrick hit at least 4 of them: his jumps are apparently effortless, have a good speed, good ice coverage and good flow and speed after the landing.
Yuzu has a more difficult program and all of his jumps have difficult entry, but this is only 1 of the requirements and Yuzuru's jumps are also effortless, have great ice coverage and when he does them well have great landing and flow.
They point out that Yuzuru has transition before the jumps and this should count as for Transitions of course but also for choreography and skating skills so this should reflect in his scores.
Both program are very complex even if in different ways
Chan is superior in choreography and interpretation, skating skills they are at the same level, (even if they show different aspects of what skating skills entail) while in transitions Yuzuru is slightly above Chan,
They go on saying that Yuzuru's program is much more difficult than Patrick's especially due to the entries to the jumps.
They digress here again saying that some of the entries, especially the one to the second quad toe loop in the FS, will be probably revised because it's really way too hard and complex.
Here, they tell a funny story about Brian e Joseph Sabocki (a skater from Czechoslovakia known especially for his jumps) doing a quad battle during the practice of a competition, and Brian did his quad toeloop with an entrance similar to the one Yuzuru does on the second quad in the FS (and on the 4T in the SP) and Angelo bursts out laughing because Brian told Yuzu that he didn't like that entrance, when he himself did it !!!
Ambesi explains why Yuzuru has an entrance so difficult to the second quad toe loop in the FS : because in this way the quad is better integrated in the choreography, and Yuzuru does it almost from nowhere, while Patrick has a long preparation for both quads, and judges, when evaluating choreography, transition, skating skills and GOEs should consider this aspect too because there is a skater that found a way to improve his quality on this aspect and make the jumps even more difficult.
Angelo points out that Yuzuru in this way is trying to do something difficult, different and creative especially with the quads, while most part of the skaters has very long preparation. Yuzu also has really short preparation also for his triple Jumps.
They talk about the flip, saying that now Yuzuru does it apparently from nowhere with a difficult transition before it and he got +2.00 in GOE and according to them he deserved even a +3.00 and since it is perfectly integrated in the choreography and Yuzuru does it apparently form nowhere, this should be reflected in all the components they were talking about.
They point out how Yuzuru with this entrance got another result: now his flip (Ambesi says that this is, historically, Yuzuru's worst jump) has the correct inside edge at the take off.
They go back to analyze why Patrick won: in their opinion it was because of the clean execution and speed, but each competition is different from another, and it's not sure that in future competitions the evaluation criteria will be the same. Ambesi thinks that after Skate Canada there will be an accurate analysis of what happened and maybe some doubts will arise.
They say that this doesn't mean that Patrick was overscored in PCS, but that Yuzu was underscored on some of PCS points, especially transitions, Yuzu had 0,80 points less than Chan, but for Ambesi he should be 0.20, 0.30 point ahead, so maybe the judges were influenced by Patrick's performance. And it has been difficult even for them to explain the 6.20 difference between Patrick and Yuzuru in the PCS score in FS
They then talk about GOE. Patrick had a high GOE on every element in the program and even on spins.
They digress a bit on Patrick's and Yuzuru's spins (going in a very deep and technical analysis of their spins and execution), concluding that Patrick has good spins, but the reduced the gap with Yuzuru can be explained only by the judges being impressed by Patrick performance and getting carried away also on the other elements: an odd situation, but something that can happen in a single competition.
Ambesi adds that maybe the Jugdes were mesmerized by Patrick performance and they gave a +1 more than what they usually would.
Step sequence: they say that Patrick here was perfect and that he used the upper part of the body better than Yuzuru, and the +3.00 he got are justified also because Patrick is very precise and clean in the footwork, while Yuzuru can improve especially with the upper part of the body and get level 4. They say that Yuzuru's sequence is very consuming physically.
They say that it is very difficult to evaluate the step sequence and for this often the panel decides to split to evaluate different aspect, like footwork, upper body, ability to go in both direction.
They point out that Yuzuru [during his program] goes in both directions without any difference, while Patrick goes more in one direction than the other.
Yuzuru can rotate in both direction and then they explain in details the hard entrance to the 3A 1Lo 3S, stressing out how insanely difficult it is. They point out that some judge gave -1.00 GOE to that combo, and it is really difficult to explain this again!! And while they point out that Yuzuru had a little stumble before it, he was able to land the combination with good execution.
They can't explain how he did it, and that only his immense talent can support something like this. To give – 1.00 to this element really took some guts!!!! [You can hear them laughing, baffled, over it, TN]
Massimiliano and Angelo digress over the two different entries Yuzu and Patrick have on the 3A.
While Patrick needs a lot of crossovers to be able to gain the necessary speed to go into the 3A, Yuzu is able to maintain the speed throughout an intricate step sequences which leads to his first 3A3T combo.
They discuss how Yuzuru decided to upgrade his programs with difficult entries on every jump (except for the 4S) and how this can complicate the outcome on one hand, but gain lots of points with GOEs on the other. They take the entry of his 4T in the short as an example; according to Massimiliano this jump (when he lands it cleanly) should receive +3 GOE automatically, because it doesn't have a step before it, it has an intricate step sequence before it!
They point out how Yuzu's layout could be risky, because of all those crazy entries that could complicate or compromise the jumps, but also how it would be impossible for anyone else to beat him if he manages to stand on his feet in both programs.
They remark how unusual it is to see Yuzu this fit and ready to go in the first GP and they wonder what should we expect for the latter part of the season, where the big competitions are (meaning that this could be an extraordinary season for him).
Digression over Patrick and his performances here at SC and at TEB in 2013. The program he skated in TEB was more difficult than the one he skated in SC, but both got him enormous GOEs. This probably means that when he manages to skate clean, his speed and quality on the jumps impress the judges very much.
They explain how he changed the 3Lz-1Lo-3S combo he used to have in the latter half with the easier 3Lz-2T-2Lo, in order to have less pressure on landing this combo and more flow on the landing leaving a better impression on his performance.
Massimiliano thinks Patrick planned his comeback very carefully, maybe also taking cue from Kostner's approach in the Olympic season. Probably Patrick thinks that with an easier layout he would be able to score more than with a harder one, because skating clean (with less pressure on landing difficult jumps) will give him higher GOEs. Angelo remarks that his strategy can be successful, but it needs a help from his competitors. When others make huge mistakes (like Yuzu in the SP), Patrick can beat them.
Little digression over Yuzu's SP and how he remarked his disappointment about it in the press conference. They say that, as a matter of fact, this was the second time Yuzu skated his SP with this layout in competition, so at the end of the day the mistake on the 4T is “forgivable”, as he isn't experienced, yet.
Massimiliano and Angelo both agree that the gap in the TES should have been higher in Yuzu's favor and how also on the PCS there were some “misinterpretations”.
For instance, they say that on SS the mark should be at least equal, or even higher for Yuzuru and how the Transitions/Linking Footwork mark needs a clarification: i.e. is a transition in the middle of the program more valuable than one right before a jump? If the answer is yes, maybe there's something wrong in the judgment.
They remark how Yuzu's free skate is the hardest free skate ever seen in figure skating and how this highlights his intentions to push the limit of the discipline and move to another level of skating.
Little mention to another athlete who is pushing the limit for other reasons: Boyang Jin. His strategy can be summarized like this “Ok, I can't compete with them on the PCS, all I can do is push my TES to unknown limits and hope that PCS will grow accordingly if I manage to skate clean and land everything”. They agree that this strategy can work for him, but how on the other hand he can't be a match for Hanyu and Chan because on the PCS the gap is too big for Boyang.
They conclude their analysis saying that they tried their best to give a plausible explanation to the scoring in SC and how we can agree on some evaluations and disagree on others, but in the end the result was somehow predictable.
What they want to highlight is that it's not sure that in the following competitions, given the same performances, the results will be the same.
Last fun fact, taking cue from Plushenko's statement “North American skaters are advantaged in north American competitions”, Angelo and Massimiliano point out how, looking back at the Grand Prix's story, the nation that wins more medals is always the one who hosts the event. And this happens for two main reasons: number one, the hosting fed usually puts its top skaters in the home event; number two, there is in fact more “benevolence” towards the home athletes.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1610393525875114/permalink/1653456464902153/https://www.spreaker.com/user/neveitalia/tutti-con-ambesi-terza-puntata
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- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
World Championship top 7 total TES vs PCS scores:
1. Fernandez TES total (inc. fall deductions) - 140.73; PCS total - 133.17 (ratio of TES/PCS = 51.4%/48.6%)
2. Hanyu: TES - 137.16; PCS - 133.92 (TES/PCS = 50.6%/49.4%)
3. Ten: TES: 136.79; PCS - 130.93 (TES/PCS = 51.1%/48.9%)
4. Brown: TES: 123.55; PCS - 124.74 (TES/PCS = 49.7%/50.2%)
5. Nguyen: TES: 130.29; PCS - 112.26 (TES/PCS = 53.7%/46.3%)
6. Ge: TES: 119.55; PCS - 115.34 (TES/PCS = 50.9%/49.1%)
7. Kovtun: TES: 112.99; PCS - 117.71 (TES/PCS = 49.0%/51%)
As you can see, the ratio of TES to PCS ends up being about 50/50 in every case (and skews depending on if the skater is better technically or artistically). 901.06 TES vs. 868.07 PCS if you total up the top 7 skaters (some who are more technical, some who are more artistic) = 50.9% TES / 49.1 % PCS. The system works perfectly fine.
Now here is added points to each skater, with your system changes:
1. Fernandez +13.32
2. Hanyu +13.38
3. Ten +13.07
4. Brown +12.47
5. Nguyen + 11.23
6. Ge +11.50
7. Kovtun +11.77
So, without even doing anything extra, Fernandez/Hanyu/Ten would have gained about 2 extra points on Nguyen/Ge.
1. Fernandez TES total (inc. fall deductions) - 140.73; PCS total - 133.17 (ratio of TES/PCS = 51.4%/48.6%)
2. Hanyu: TES - 137.16; PCS - 133.92 (TES/PCS = 50.6%/49.4%)
3. Ten: TES: 136.79; PCS - 130.93 (TES/PCS = 51.1%/48.9%)
4. Brown: TES: 123.55; PCS - 124.74 (TES/PCS = 49.7%/50.2%)
5. Nguyen: TES: 130.29; PCS - 112.26 (TES/PCS = 53.7%/46.3%)
6. Ge: TES: 119.55; PCS - 115.34 (TES/PCS = 50.9%/49.1%)
7. Kovtun: TES: 112.99; PCS - 117.71 (TES/PCS = 49.0%/51%)
As you can see, the ratio of TES to PCS ends up being about 50/50 in every case (and skews depending on if the skater is better technically or artistically). 901.06 TES vs. 868.07 PCS if you total up the top 7 skaters (some who are more technical, some who are more artistic) = 50.9% TES / 49.1 % PCS. The system works perfectly fine.
Now here is added points to each skater, with your system changes:
1. Fernandez +13.32
2. Hanyu +13.38
3. Ten +13.07
4. Brown +12.47
5. Nguyen + 11.23
6. Ge +11.50
7. Kovtun +11.77
So, without even doing anything extra, Fernandez/Hanyu/Ten would have gained about 2 extra points on Nguyen/Ge.
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- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
Here's a comparison of the same for Skate Canada, to show just how much BoP's system changes would benefit Chan/Hanyu and be detrimental to inferior-PCS skaters.
1. Chan: TES - 131.60; PCS - 139.54 (48.5%/51.5%)
2. Hanyu: TES - 126.78; PCS - 133.76 (48.8%/51.2%)
3. Murakami: TES - 132.54; PCS - 120.71 (52.5%/47.5%)
4. Rippon: TES - 119.03; PCS - 120.66 (49.7%/50.3%)
5. Nguyen: TES - 126.13; PCS - 112.69 (52.8%/47.2%)
Again, the system clearly works fine ---- scores are about 50-50 (add up all of the top 5 and you get 636.08 TES vs. 627.36 = 50.3% TES vs 49.7% PCS), with skews depending on how the skater did (e.g. Chan/Hanyu had poor SPs and are strong artistically so their ratio skews slightly PCS; Murakami/Nguyen are stronger technically and were given fairly low PCS, so their ratio skews slightly TES)
With points added under your system, each skater gains:
1. Chan: 13.95
2. Hanyu: 13.38
3. Murakami: 12.07
4. Rippon: 12.07
5. Nguyen: 11.27
So, again, Chan/Hanyu gain 2 points over Nguyen, and an extra point or two over Murakami/Rippon compared to normal PCS weighting. How this makes for a more fair or more interesting competition escapes me. The only thing it does is skew points more in favour of higher PCS scorers, and shifts the TES/PCS ratios in favour of PCS over TES (which IMO wouldn't incentivize skaters to perform demanding/clean programs to earn concrete points... and rather have to cross their fingers that the judges will be receptive to any artistic improvements).
1. Chan: TES - 131.60; PCS - 139.54 (48.5%/51.5%)
2. Hanyu: TES - 126.78; PCS - 133.76 (48.8%/51.2%)
3. Murakami: TES - 132.54; PCS - 120.71 (52.5%/47.5%)
4. Rippon: TES - 119.03; PCS - 120.66 (49.7%/50.3%)
5. Nguyen: TES - 126.13; PCS - 112.69 (52.8%/47.2%)
Again, the system clearly works fine ---- scores are about 50-50 (add up all of the top 5 and you get 636.08 TES vs. 627.36 = 50.3% TES vs 49.7% PCS), with skews depending on how the skater did (e.g. Chan/Hanyu had poor SPs and are strong artistically so their ratio skews slightly PCS; Murakami/Nguyen are stronger technically and were given fairly low PCS, so their ratio skews slightly TES)
With points added under your system, each skater gains:
1. Chan: 13.95
2. Hanyu: 13.38
3. Murakami: 12.07
4. Rippon: 12.07
5. Nguyen: 11.27
So, again, Chan/Hanyu gain 2 points over Nguyen, and an extra point or two over Murakami/Rippon compared to normal PCS weighting. How this makes for a more fair or more interesting competition escapes me. The only thing it does is skew points more in favour of higher PCS scorers, and shifts the TES/PCS ratios in favour of PCS over TES (which IMO wouldn't incentivize skaters to perform demanding/clean programs to earn concrete points... and rather have to cross their fingers that the judges will be receptive to any artistic improvements).
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- Dec 29, 2011
I never thought the day would come somebody would give SS to Hanyu, but Interpretation to Chan. This is kinda creepin' me out
Glad though they talked about how much Chan simplified the entrances into his jumps. And how his spins are overscored. I take a sigh of relief everytime someone points that out.
Glad though they talked about how much Chan simplified the entrances into his jumps. And how his spins are overscored. I take a sigh of relief everytime someone points that out.
- Joined
- Oct 29, 2013
Wow! I loved reading the analysis from the Italians.
I hadn't really noticed Patrick's simplified entrances...off to rewatch that. But I do agree, everything Hanyu is doing this season is so difficult!
I hadn't really noticed Patrick's simplified entrances...off to rewatch that. But I do agree, everything Hanyu is doing this season is so difficult!
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