Chan v. Hanyu: 2015-16

[MaxSwagg]

The SP only has three jump passes, so there is no room for error. A bad SP really hurts a skater's chance to medal. That's why in general he takes less risk in the SP than in the LP. He didn't include the 4S in the SP last seaosn because his 4S was not a consistent jump. He insisted on including the 4S in the LP for the past 3 seasons because he knew he must master the 4S if he wants to have at least 3 quads in the LP and 2 quads in the SP by the next Olympics. That's also the reason why his past LP performances often appeared to be worse than his SP performances, because he included his inconsistent jumps in the LP, but not in the SP. His struggle with 3lz-3t last season was really not part of his plan. I doubt his intention was to challenge the 3lz-3t. But since his 4S was not consistent to be included in the SP, he was stuck with 3lz-3t last season. His ultimate goal is 2 quads in the SP. So he won't need 3Lz for his SP in the future and there is no reason to get stuck on the 3lz-3t if the 3lz-3t doesn't work in the SP any more. He really doesn't insistent on jumps he doesn't need. His 4S has become consistent this season, so he is willing to add 4S to his SP. His new SP layout in fact is less risky than his old layout because he got rid of both of 4t in the 2nd half and the 3lz-3t. If he doesn't have any inconsistent jumps in his program layouts, it is very likely for him to go clean or close to clean. (He still gives subpar performances in the GPs, especially the first GP. That seems to be his pattern. This year is an exception. His 2nd GP is a significant improvement from the first. I think his defeat at Skate Canada motivated him more.) It took Hanyu 3 seasons to get his 4t consistent and another 3 seasons to get his 4S consistent. If he didn't have as many health issues last season, perhaps his 4S would've been more consistent last season. I just hope he can get his 4Lo consistent in less time (3 seasons is too long). I think it is very possible since he is physically and mentally much more mature now.

I think many people underestimated Hanyu's talent. He is a prodigy and once in a life time talent. I thought this is so obvious even a few years ago, when he was just a teenager. (IMO, we probably won't see another talent like him for many, many years. I'm actually suprised there are people who don't see Hanyu as an extremely rare talent. ) His progress really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. I would be more shocked if he progressed at a slower rate. In fact, he is behind his own schedule due to the health issues he had last season.

Apparently the 4Lo has something like an 80% success rate in practice as of late. Not the same as competition but still...

 

[HanDomi]

Apparently the 4Lo has something like an 80% success rate in practice as of late. Not the same as competition but still...

Where you get the info from about 80 %?
80 % is a lot even for quad toe, let alone for quad loop

 

[da96103]

Apparently the 4Lo has something like an 80% success rate in practice as of late. Not the same as competition but still...

80% success in practice and 100% success in Galas. :hap57:

 

[4everchan]

in galas, as an isolated jump... not in a choreography.... i bet adam could even land his 4LZ in that format

80% success in practice and 100% success in Galas. :hap57:

 

[MaxSwagg]

in galas, as an isolated jump... not in a choreography.... i bet adam could even land his 4LZ in that format

I doubt Adam has ever landed a true 4Lz. Maybe 4Lz< but not 4Lz... He's been trying for like five+ years? I"m sure Yuzu could get a real one in one.

 

[shiroKJ]

in galas, as an isolated jump... not in a choreography.... i bet adam could even land his 4LZ in that format

4-3 comments flashback! Don't jinx it, he might start landing them at 100% in competitions soon

 

[Interspectator]

4-3 comments flashback! Don't jinx it, he might start landing them at 100% in competitions soon

Very true. But in the latest interview with Yuzu, after landing in Japan reporters asked him about putting the 4Lo in this season.
Yuzu said that it wasn't his plan. That at the moment he wouldn't be able to add it in with sufficient +GOEs to make it worth it.

I'm sure he calculates these thing very carefully. Once he can put a 4LO in with transitions, maybe next season, he will do it.

As Brian and Shae Lynn have said, this year, Yuzu is at the helm. Brian over-sees things and makes sure Yuzu is healthy and training in the right way, but Yuzu decides what jumps to include and what music to skate to etc.

 

[4everchan]

bring it on. i believe in him. he can do it... but saying things like he is 100% in galas means nothing to me hence my previous post

4-3 comments flashback! Don't jinx it, he might start landing them at 100% in competitions soon

 

[4everchan]

....exactly..... it's a math game and they all know how to play it.

Very true. But in the latest interview with Yuzu, after landing in Japan reporters asked him about putting the 4Lo in this season.
Yuzu said that it wasn't his plan. That at the moment he wouldn't be able to add it in with sufficient +GOEs to make it worth it.

I'm sure he calculates these thing very carefully. Once he can put a 4LO in with transitions, maybe next season, he will do it.

 

[da96103]

4-3 comments flashback! Don't jinx it, he might start landing them at 100% in competitions soon

Except for Boyang's 4Lz, don't think anything else can push Yuzuru's motivation except ..... maybe a comment on goldenskate that Yuzu 4Lo is a one-trick gala pony and that he can't land a 4Lo in choreography. If Yuzu finds out this has written, I bet that 4Lo will appear before you can finish saying '2016 World Championship in Boston."

 

[Rissa]

Except for Boyang's 4Lz, don't think anything else can push Yuzuru's motivation except ..... maybe a comment on goldenskate that Yuzu 4Lo is a one-trick gala pony and that he can't land a 4Lo in choreography. If Yuzu finds out this has written, I bet that 4Lo will appear before you can finish saying '2015 World Championship in Boston."

Incorporating the 4Lo seems like rushing into things at this point, I don't know. It kinda depends in how much Yuzu plans to up his tech for the Olympic year. If he wants to have 4Lz by then, than it'd make sense to incorporate 4Lo now and 4Lz next season. If he never plans in doing 4Lz in competition then 4Lo could wait. I agree that Boyang is probably the greatest motivation for Yuzu, he and Shoma breathing down his neck on his home turf, so he might be planning to go with 4 quads LP in Olympic season, the question is what 4 quads.

 

[Sydney Rose]

So Javier did two quads in his SP at Spanish Nationals.

Interesting.

 

[Rissa]

So Javier did two quads in his SP at Spanish Nationals.

Interesting.

Obvious upgrade for Javi is obvious!

Worlds will be verrrrry interesting!

 

[4everchan]

Except for Boyang's 4Lz, don't think anything else can push Yuzuru's motivation except ..... maybe a comment on goldenskate that Yuzu 4Lo is a one-trick gala pony and that he can't land a 4Lo in choreography. If Yuzu finds out this has written, I bet that 4Lo will appear before you can finish saying '2015 World Championship in Boston."

i am sure that yuzu reads the comments here and goes to brian saying that now he needs to do the 4 loop.... sure of it...

 

[Li'Kitsu]

That's great news, was about time! Now continue to rock that SP and give Yuzu a fight, Javi!

That's another nail in the coffin of the Yuzu vs. Pat thing I'd say.

 

[4everchan]

That's great news, was about time! Now continue to rock that SP and give Yuzu a fight, Javi!

That's another nail in the coffin of the Yuzu vs. Pat thing I'd say.

why? it's not because javi is updating his layout that chan's biggest rival isn't yuzu anymore...and you can ask yuzu himself: who is the only man who was beaten you this season... the answer is still CHAN.

 

[HanDomi]

why? it's not because javi is updating his layout that chan's biggest rival isn't yuzu anymore...and you can ask yuzu himself: who is the only man who was beaten you this season... the answer is still CHAN.

Well, to be fair it all comes down to Hanyu making mistakes. If he doesn't he is simply unbeatable, because he must be beaten in TES when he is clean to make it happen, because there is no option to make any PCS jump on him, and good luck to anyone in that case

 

[4everchan]

totally... that goes for all skaters. javier is now upgrading his SP... now that he will also have 2 quads in it... how will it affect everyone???? will chan be like MEH... i will stick to my stuff and just focus on quality while both yuzu and javi feel the pressure??? this is a sport greatly controlled by MATHS.... and when you start counting things here and there, it can get into one's mind.... we all have seen Yuzu inconsistencies....and actually some people on this forum said that they never believed he could skate clean twice in a row....I wouldn't think that it is automatic that he will , from now on, never make a mistake again... and at one point, you cannot expect a skater like patrick to keep screwing up his SP.... at every competition.... it's the 3rd time in a row now.... it's time for him to skate it big.... and when that happens???? what will his reaction be??? it's all speculation. It's all possible and impossible... that's why i pounce on comments saying : there's no more chan vs hanyu now because Javier has added a quad in his SP.... how often does javi skates both of his programs CLEAN ? all these guys are pushing the limits of the sport... and sometimes, it will be Yuzu winning by 30 points .... or more.... and some other times, it will be another guy rising to the occasion...

Well, to be fair it all comes down to Hanyu making mistakes. If he doesn't he is simply unbeatable, because he must be beaten in TES when he is clean to make it happen, because there is no option to make any PCS jump on him, and good luck to anyone in that case

 

[Mathman]

But then again, it is Javier who is reigning world champion. It is up to the others to chase him down. :yes:

 

[4everchan]

hehe... so why a chan vs hanyu thread when javier is the one to beat oh wait... must be a skating wife deal again

But then again, it is Javier who is reigning world champion. It is up to the others to chase him down. :yes: