Will Mao Asada Make It to the 2018 Games?

[MiRé]

I understand Japan and Korea hate each other. I'm American ok? I'm not going to get into an argument with you regarding country politics. I was responding to a comment regarding bringing popularity of the sport to a new country and bringing in new fans such as Korea.

Let me remind you again. Korea has absolutely no politicking power in figure skating, and to be frank, Yuna herself brought her the fame, not KSU(Korean skating union) in any shape or form. I don't know if you read the news, but in the recent Korean figure skating competition, LPG gas tank from one of their zamboni fell out which ended up canceling the entire competition. KSU didn't even bother to find other rinks because there is no dedicated figure skating ice rinks in Korea. You see how pathetic KSU is now? You honestly think they can "politic" figure skating judges to give Yuna WR's and such?

or maybe the judges have the discretion to call who gets under-rotated jumps and who doesnt? Simple.

Oh please, Mao is known for her UR and edge calls on her Lutz. Be thankful her 3A-2T in Olympics LP wasn't called UR because that was clearly UR but she got a pass. Technical judges are there for a reason, and once you start UR, they WILL look at your jumps in more detail (e.g. Mirai).

**sorry for going off tangent, but please do not try to spread lies no matter how much you dislike Yuna. Especially if you don't know/don't care about her past and what she went through to achieve what she is now.

On topic: Mao shouldn't retire because she has the potential. My opinion is that she ditch 3A and bring in 2 3-3's, but if really wants to keep her 3A, she really needs to fix the UR on her 3f-3lo combo or simply change it to 3T as she did in 2008(i believe?).

 

[MaxSwagg]

That's because Mao UR and and Yuna does not. Simple

And much less transitions (40+ crossovers in a free skate...and some people say Yuzu needs to take a page from Yuna and/or wish she were his coach-would be a BIG mistake) and subpar spins in comparison to Mao. Also benefited from whacko GOE scaling and jump valuations. Jump valuations are STILL whacko. But that's the ISU's fault and she took full advantage of it...

Mao can still do it if she's clean. Probably even with one UR. She just needs to stay healthy (as this season she was not).

 

[largeman]

Oh please, Mao is known for her UR and edge calls on her Lutz. Be thankful her 3A-2T in Olympics LP wasn't called UR because that was clearly UR but she got a pass.

It was certainly NOT UR. Not even close. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOIt7ZdSlXQ

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I've seen quite a few comments regarding Mao's calls at the WC this year. Personally.....I think the TP has way too much power and I think it's sad that Mao (and many other skaters) get dinged so harshly because her jumps have a certain quality that gets erased "technically" when the final scores come up.

I did however make a little video showing every single one of Mao's UR's at the WC and the one edge call into a quick video just to add to that particular aspect of the discussion. Judge for yourself and keep in mind....the tech panel probably had their own angles and most likely more frames per second than I had. All disclaimers aside...........

Mao Asada Tech Panel Calls 2016 World Championship
https://youtu.be/EJw79gWq1Uw

Available up to 1080p HD on your settings.
Music M83: We Own the Sky

 

[MiRé]

And much less transitions (40+ crossovers in a free skate...and some people say Yuzu needs to take a page from Yuna and/or wish she were his coach-would be a BIG mistake) and subpar spins in comparison to Mao. Also benefited from whacko GOE scaling and jump valuations. Jump valuations are STILL whacko. But that's the ISU's fault and she took full advantage of it...

Mao can still do it if she's clean. Probably even with one UR. She just needs to stay healthy (as this season she was not).

I told you before and you still don't understand. The only way to maximize CoP is learning to adapt to it. Mao wasn't able to "adapt" to it fully after she lost her 3-3 in 2009. It's not a whacko just because Mao did poorly with it. Look at Evgenia. She took a FULL advantage of CoP by adding tanos & backloading. It's a tactic that gets you the points, and points allow you to win. Doing a 3A is not a guarantee for a gold medal when you UR and have a wrong edge on Lutz.

Also, CoP doesn't mention anything about crossovers being a "disruptive" part of the program. So what you do less crossovers, you still can't rotate fully

 

[MaxSwagg]

I told you before and you still don't understand. The only way to maximize CoP is learning to adapt to it. Mao wasn't able to "adapt" to it fully after she lost her 3-3 in 2009. It's not a whacko just because Mao did poorly with it. Look at Evgenia. She took a FULL advantage of CoP by adding tanos & backloading. It's a tactic that gets you the points, and points allow you to win. Doing a 3A is not a guarantee for a gold medal when you UR and have a wrong edge on Lutz.

Also, CoP doesn't mention anything about crossovers being a "disruptive" part of the program. So what you do less crossovers, you still can't rotate fully

Neither is not having a loop at all, an apparent toe hammer on lutz and flip, and certainly should be reflected in that component called, you know, TRANSITIONS. And it IS whacko when a 3A+2T is certainly much more difficult than a 3Lz+3T (unless you're with Scotty H and stupidly think otherwise). Also the fact that now a 3Lz+3T is essentially worth the same as an extraordinarily difficult 3F+3Lo. That is outrageous. It's not about who takes advantage of it or does poorly. It's about valuing the jumps based on reality. But like I said; not her fault the base values are jacked up...

 

[hurrah]

I've seen quite a few comments regarding Mao's calls at the WC this year. Personally.....I think the TP has way too much power and I think it's sad that Mao (and many other skaters) get dinged so harshly because her jumps have a certain quality that gets erased "technically" when the final scores come up.

I did however make a little video showing every single one of Mao's UR's at the WC and the one edge call into a quick video just to add to that particular aspect of the discussion. Judge for yourself and keep in mind....the tech panel probably had their own angles and most likely more frames per second than I had. All disclaimers aside...........

Mao Asada Tech Panel Calls 2016 World Championship
https://youtu.be/EJw79gWq1Uw

Available up to 1080p HD on your settings.
Music M83: We Own the Sky

There is some misleading editing done here, because you freeze her jump at where the skate is clearly at an angle that would be called under-rotated, and then speed through the rest of her jump, so looking at this video doesn't show just exactly when she really landed the jump.

I would say her 3-axel in her short was under-rotated, but her 3-axel in her free and 3flip-3loop could have gone either way. And I check with my own high-vision recording of her jumps frame by frame, without your editing.

 

[MiRé]

Neither is not having a loop at all, an apparent toe hammer on lutz and flip, and certainly should be reflected in that component called, you know, TRANSITIONS. And it IS whacko when a 3A+2T is certainly much more difficult than a 3Lz+3T (unless you're with Scotty H and stupidly think otherwise). Also the fact that now a 3Lz+3T is essentially worth the same as an extraordinarily difficult 3F+3Lo. That is outrageous. It's not about who takes advantage of it or does poorly. It's about valuing the jumps based on reality. But like I said; not her fault the base values are jacked up...

No one is saying 3A2T is less difficult. I've said it many times on this forum that I respect Mao for going for the most difficult jump, but she definite does not know how to play the game correctly. And if you think Yuna's lutz and flip is an apparent hammer toe, what the heck is Kanako's hammer toe? an earthquake on ice? Plus, having a hammer toe has nothing to do with transitions. You might want to read IJS handbook.

And not having a loop is bad? Mao was lutz-less and had no 3-3 back up. I'm pretty sure Mao's team knew about SP rule where if a skater were to execute 3A, it would have to be in a combination. Yes, this is essentially a bad rule, but the only reason it hurt Mao was because she had no 3-3 as a back up. 3A is still a big advantage in the LP so it's not like she's losing points for that.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

There is some misleading editing done here, because you freeze her jump at where the skate is clearly at an angle that would be called under-rotated, and then speed through the rest of her jump, so looking at this video doesn't show just exactly when she really landed the jump.

I would say her 3-axel in her short was under-rotated, but her 3-axel in her free and 3flip-3loop could have gone either way. And I check with my own high-vision recording of her jumps frame by frame, without your editing.

Why would I mislead anyone? I download 1080p at 25fps and then just use my editing scroll bar to move it to the point of the video when her blades touch the ground and hit pause. The only reason I didn't show the 2a-3t in slow motion is because the video source I used didn't replay that jump in super slow motion and it would have been blurry at slow speeds. I can redo just that jump if you want me to. It would take about 15 minutes. My editing software isn't the best but sony vegas 13 PRO isn't cheap either. I would love to see your edited version with your own high-vision recording. Thanks.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

There is some misleading editing done here, because you freeze her jump at where the skate is clearly at an angle that would be called under-rotated, and then speed through the rest of her jump, so looking at this video doesn't show just exactly when she really landed the jump.

So I went back and only used the exact same clip of the 3f-3lo I chose the first time and then lengthened it so that after a few seconds I could zoom in for you......I told you it would be blurry. Still.......look at where her toe pick is when I paused it (same spot in both videos because I didn't change that at all) and see the ice explode at the same point from her touchdown once it is unpaused. You can see where someone else skated thru there and left a curved tracing and that is where I paused it because that is where she touched down on the video I downloaded. Here is a "secret unlisted video" that I did just for you.

https://youtu.be/Jvms7_XivB4

I don't claim my video's to be the end all of evidence and I most certainly think ALL of the calls are subject to interpretation but.....I do take offense if you think I'm trying to mislead people.

 

[EdgeCall]

Why would I mislead anyone? I download 1080p at 25fps and then just use my editing scroll bar to move it to the point of the video when her blades touch the ground and hit pause. The only reason I didn't show the 2a-3t in slow motion is because the video source I used didn't replay that jump in super slow motion and it would have been blurry at slow speeds. I can redo just that jump if you want me to. It would take about 15 minutes. My editing software isn't the best but sony vegas 13 PRO isn't cheap either. I would love to see your edited version with your own high-vision recording. Thanks.

Sam-Skwantch, have you checked the 60fps link I posted a few days ago? It seems to me that in its raw form it's already noticably better than the 25fps-based jumpamatron. 60fps+jumpamatron will likely get even more precise results. Here's the link to Gracie's SP, you'll find a lot more stuff in this poster's channel. Please note that you need a youtube downloader to find the 60fps-footage. I used firefox with the "Youtube Video and Audio Downloader" plugin.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I'll check it out but I fear that after download/editing/and re-uploading I'm bound to lose some quality. I'm currently using Ummy Downloader but it's pretty crappy IMO and doesn't identify FPS until after I've downloaded it and check it in my video editor. I will admit that the 3a in the SP had waaaay better quality than any of the clips in the FS. Oh well....it's a learning curve I guess. Thanks for the heads up on the YouTube channel. :yes:

 

[cinnamon]

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/...re-compete-pyeongchang-olympics/#.Vw3-dTArKM9

Mao: “I believe I can still compete for some years. At the very end, I want to have a skating career in which I did all I could, in which it was good to have made a comeback and from which I can walk away with a smile on my face.”

"if Pyeonchang is there at the end waiting for me, I’ll be happy."

http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASJ4D4K6VJ4DUTQP01T.html

 

[nolangoh]

And much less transitions (40+ crossovers in a free skate...and some people say Yuzu needs to take a page from Yuna and/or wish she were his coach-would be a BIG mistake) and subpar spins in comparison to Mao.

I know right? People say Yuna skates so fast, and then I was like, "of course she is fast, it is pretty hard not to be fast if you do like 5 crossovers before going into an element." Im not kidding, she did like 7 crossovers before going into her 3Lz+3T in her 007 SP at Vancouver, and then 6 before going into the flip. She did less crossovers in Sochi before going into jumps but then still, there's this moment when you realised it's "crossover time" where she did like 4 crossovers at one side of the rink.

I am not saying it is bad or what, but sometimes I just don't get why she got praised so much on her skating speed when she did some obvious speeding moves.

 

[bara1968]

I think she definitely can, as long as she can keep improving her jumps. She may not win the nationals though, but 3rd is reachable for her in any case.

Also IMO, her future success heavily relies on her SP. She really needs to make one mistake (UR or step out on 3A) and no more. Some users here provided interesting theory on Mao loosing to Yuna via politicking etc, but it isn't true at all (She won 2008 worlds over Yuna with really small margin (2 points in total) which could be totally adjusted by the judges if they really wanted, and won 2008 GPF over Yuna in KOREA; where is politicking here?) She started to loose her jumps in 2008-2009 seasons, which led her to rework on her techniques after the Olympics. In addition, she often made mistakes in SP which did not help her out at all. Those two issues still bother her nowadays. I don't think she has to bring back 3-3 for SP; Good 3F+2Lo, 3A (UR or not), 3Lo will be good enough for her to score more than 70. Then, she can be placed in the last group in LP so that she may not have any disadvantage on PCS any more. As UR 3A still gives her decent credit worth a triple, I think it is better to keep it in LP as well. She can repeat 3F and 3Lo, which are the most reliable jumps to her. But I don't think it is good strategy for her to keep doing 3F+3Lo which is most definitely UR. It may be better to do 3F+2Lo, 3Lo+2Lo+2T, 3F, 3Lo (and add 3A, 2A+3T, 3Sal). Then, whenever she hits clean 3A, it will be really hard to beat her, whether Med does more Tanos or not. In my opinion, she really needs to focus on stabilizing her layout and provides clean performances next season - pre Olympics - so that her PCS can increase, not decrease. I was shocked to see her PCS during worlds; The message was so clear - if she makes mistakes, the judges will not hold up her via PCS. Anyways, all the best for her. I admire her for trying more and look forward to seeing her future programs!

 

[bara1968]

I am not saying it is bad or what, but sometimes I just don't get why she got praised so much on her skating speed when she did some obvious speeding moves.

Because it is very hard to keep that much speed going into the elements, especially the jumps, and maintain total control over them. Can we please go back to the topic?

 

[Blades of Passion]

if you think Yuna's lutz and flip is an apparent hammer toe, what the heck is Kanako's hammer toe? an earthquake on ice?

LOOOOOL.

Japan vs South Korea still going hard.

Mao Asada Tech Panel Calls 2016 World Championship
https://youtu.be/EJw79gWq1Uw

I do think some of the timings here are wrong, though. On the 3Axel in the LP, the point you froze isn't where I would consider the jump to be landed. Also, even looking at that point you chose, we have to consider she starting taking off for the jump on a diagonal. Not just directly facing the side board. There are videos out there with a close-up on her feet from the other angle.

For the 2Axel+3Toe I believe the point you paused is a bit after she landed, I was able to spot that underrotation.

 

[largeman]

I do think some of the timings here are wrong, though. On the 3Axel in the LP, the point you froze isn't where I would consider the jump to be landed. Also, even looking at that point you chose, we have to consider she starting taking off for the jump on a diagonal. Not just directly facing the side board. There are videos out there with a close-up on her feet from the other angle.

Yes the close-up shot in replay shows the takeoff direction (with clear tracing on the ice) really well. The UR call on this 3A is a total head scratcher. The tech panel should really be ashamed. https://youtu.be/3pXLxu93DKE?t=5m50s

One thing I've noticed is that when Mao has to put her free foot down (i.e. two footing the landing), her landing is usually not UR (another recent example is her 2A+3T at NHK Trophy this season. Rotation was excellent and she got +0.20 GOE despite the two-footed landing).

 

[SarahSynchro]

Regarding doing a 3Lz-3T vs a 3Lz-3Lo, why is the 3Lo almost always underrotated by EVERY skater and not just Mao?

 

[Blades of Passion]

She could never add a 3F-3T AND train the 3A AND continue working on the 3Z at her age.

Yeah, never. Cause she's grandma age now. Okay.

Regarding doing a 3Lz-3T vs a 3Lz-3Lo, why is the 3Lo almost always underrotated by EVERY skater and not just Mao?

Because it's super hard!

It's also the kind of combo that totally favors very small bodies. So when Mao was young it was consistently rotated. Then it started getting harder for her, although I believe several of the underrotation calls she's received on it over the years have been wrong. Her executions of it in the Short Program at 2008 Worlds and then 2014 Olympics and Worlds (although here it was the first jump that was called) being the most striking, off the top of my head.