Will Mao Asada Make It to the 2018 Games?

[andyjo24]

GUYS!:disapp:

This was NOT intended to be a Yu-na vs Mao fan war. This is a thread focusing on how possible it would be for Mao to make the Pyeongchang team with Japan having many rising stars.

Please have your war elsewhere. :dev2:

 

[largeman]

Regarding doing a 3Lz-3T vs a 3Lz-3Lo, why is the 3Lo almost always underrotated by EVERY skater and not just Mao?

Because it's super hard!

It's also the kind of combo that totally favors very small bodies. So when Mao was young it was consistently rotated. Then it started getting harder for her, although I believe several of the underrotation calls she's received on it over the years have been wrong. Her executions of it in the Short Program at 2008 Worlds and then 2014 Olympics and Worlds (although here it was the first jump that was called) being the most striking, off the top of my head.

This season, Mao was the only senior lady doing the 3x +3Lo combination. However there were quite a few juniors doing it, and all of them had pretty good success rate. Here are some notable ones:

Wakaba Higuchi: 3Lz+3Lo 11.10 +1.20 = 12.30 https://youtu.be/wFVDnlvLZig?t=4m44s
Na Hyun Kim: 3Lo+3Lo 10.20 +0.50 = 10.70 https://youtu.be/qUloIxxzfw4?t=4m11s
Yuna Shiraiwa: 3S+3Lo 9.50 +1.00 = 10.50 https://youtu.be/3oHY5gRXTxU?t=5m1s

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I made a jumpamatron of Yuna's Aiko's 3z-3lo earlier this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-qEQaCiCKI

 

[ioanna]

Wakaba Higuchi's 3Lz-3Lo is spectacular. Unfortunately she's had trouble executing it consistently because it's very difficult but I hope she keeps it. She's a powerful jumper in general, the best of all Japanese ladies in my opinion.

 

[SarahSynchro]

Because it's super hard!

It's also the kind of combo that totally favors very small bodies. So when Mao was young it was consistently rotated. Then it started getting harder for her, although I believe several of the underrotation calls she's received on it over the years have been wrong. Her executions of it in the Short Program at 2008 Worlds and then 2014 Olympics and Worlds (although here it was the first jump that was called) being the most striking, off the top of my head.

Yes, you're definitely right about the 3Lo being hard when it's the second jump, as the skater has to get enough power from their landing foot to launch back up into the air for another three rotations, unlike a toe loop where the power is assisted by the pick hitting the ice. But even Tara Lipinski who was tiny in stature and known for her 3Lo-3Lo would probably get an underrotation call by today's standards. I'm guessing Irina and Sarah H would as well.

 

[andyjo24]

This season, Mao was the only senior lady doing the 3x +3Lo combination. However there were quite a few juniors doing it, and all of them had pretty good success rate. Here are some notable ones:

Wakaba Higuchi: 3Lz+3Lo 11.10 +1.20 = 12.30 https://youtu.be/wFVDnlvLZig?t=4m44s
Na Hyun Kim: 3Lo+3Lo 10.20 +0.50 = 10.70 https://youtu.be/qUloIxxzfw4?t=4m11s
Yuna Shiraiwa: 3S+3Lo 9.50 +1.00 = 10.50 https://youtu.be/3oHY5gRXTxU?t=5m1s

I don't know if this would count, but Na Hyun Kim did the 3Lo+3Lo at a senior competition, so wouldn't she count as a senior lady?

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Sam-Skwantch, have you checked the 60fps link I posted a few days ago? It seems to me that in its raw form it's already noticably better than the 25fps-based jumpamatron. 60fps+jumpamatron will likely get even more precise results. Here's the link to Gracie's SP, you'll find a lot more stuff in this poster's channel. Please note that you need a youtube downloader to find the 60fps-footage. I used firefox with the "Youtube Video and Audio Downloader" plugin.

I went and looked up that YouTube account and found Mao's video there but it's 720p HD which is fine because it's at 60 FPS but......the NBC source video appears to cut off her feet on the 3a landing so it's useless. I'm searching for another angle at 60fps of the FS to mix them all together hopefully into one less controversial video.

ETA:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaPw62cURKQ

 

[sweetskates1]

Mao is a treasure and I love her so much that nothing would make me happier than seeing her win that elusive Olympic gold medal. However, Mao is Mao. She is above all others in terms of maturity and artistic quality imo. Even if she does not make it all the way to pyeongchang, she is already a legend. And, I am not nearly as knowledgeable as most of you about tech skills & scoring but I think that Mao is still an exceptional package that includes crazy-difficult skills and ethereal artistry.

 

[Barb]

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/...re-compete-pyeongchang-olympics/#.Vw3-dTArKM9

Mao: “I believe I can still compete for some years. At the very end, I want to have a skating career in which I did all I could, in which it was good to have made a comeback and from which I can walk away with a smile on my face.”

"if Pyeonchang is there at the end waiting for me, I’ll be happy."

http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASJ4D4K6VJ4DUTQP01T.html

I would like to add her answer to this question: Q. After winning China Cup in November last year, you fell into a slump and had difficult competitions?

Mao: ¨This season didn't even count as being difficult. I have overcome many difficulties in my life. I am confident that I'll be okay no matter what happens. There were times when I found myself thinking too much in the face of competition and could not skate satisfactorily, but that's just a minor problem, really. ¨

thanks Hurra for the translation.

 

[blackey]

just very excited to see japanese girls heading into 2018... I mean if mao can keep up like what she did on worlds, team japan seems going to have a very competitive national before olympics. i would say it's just like japanese boys 2014 all over again. lol

 

[Blades of Passion]

But even Tara Lipinski who was tiny in stature and known for her 3Lo-3Lo would probably get an underrotation call by today's standards. I'm guessing Irina and Sarah H would as well.

Irina would definitely get many underrotation calls, she was never consistent with her +3Loop combos and only did one or two 3Lutz+3Loop in her entire competitive career that weren't underrotated.

I think Lipinski's 3Lo+3Lo was sufficiently rotated at all of her most important competitions (97 Nationals, 97+98 GPF, 97 Worlds, 98 Olympics).

Sarah...was almost always overly under rotated. But at the Olympics her 3Toe+3Loop was okay and the 3Sal+3Loop wasn't so bad either.

 

[largeman]

I don't know if this would count, but Na Hyun Kim did the 3Lo+3Lo at a senior competition, so wouldn't she count as a senior lady?

Yes, fair enough

 

[Shayuki]

There just isn't much sense in doing a 3Lo-3Lo with today's scoring system. It's unnecessarily difficult for little to no reward.

For instance, the two decent jump layouts are this:

3Lz-3T, 3Lz, 3F-1Lo-3S, 3F, 2A-2T, 3Lo, 2A. This layout totals 44.8 BV.

And this:

3Lz-3T, 2A-3T, 2A-2T-2T, 3Lz, 3F, 3Lo, 3S. This layout totals 44.6 BV.

Then, here's a layout that utilizes a 3Lo-3Lo combo:

3Lo-3Lo, 3Lz-2T, 2A-1Lo-3S, 3Lz, 3F, 3T, 2A. This layout totals 44.6 BV.

Another:

3Lo-3Lo, 3Lz-3T, 2A-2T-2T, 3Lz, 3F, 3S, 2A. This layout totals 45.4 BV.

 

[Skater Boy]

Irina would definitely get many underrotation calls, she was never consistent with her +3Loop combos and only did one or two 3Lutz+3Loop in her entire competitive career that weren't underrotated.

I think Lipinski's 3Lo+3Lo was sufficiently rotated at all of her most important competitions (97 Nationals, 97+98 GPF, 97 Worlds, 98 Olympics).

Sarah...was almost always overly under rotated. But at the Olympics her 3Toe+3Loop was okay and the 3Sal+3Loop wasn't so bad either.

En
But Tara's jumps made Miyahara's look huge and full of amplitude. Tara's jump up alittle bit and no where - very little coverage. her youthful exuberance was nice but it did not help her tiny immature jumps. But Mao has yet to establish consistency in full rotation or that she can tack on any triple loop or toe to a jump combo so i can see how the 3A becomes a necessity though one wonders with her skating skills and all if she could do 7 triples she could still win but the odds of n ot getting an edge call on the lutz or a ur seems at this point doubtuful.

 

[Skater Boy]

I know right? People say Yuna skates so fast, and then I was like, "of course she is fast, it is pretty hard not to be fast if you do like 5 crossovers before going into an element." Im not kidding, she did like 7 crossovers before going into her 3Lz+3T in her 007 SP at Vancouver, and then 6 before going into the flip. She did less crossovers in Sochi before going into jumps but then still, there's this moment when you realised it's "crossover time" where she did like 4 crossovers at one side of the rink.

I am not saying it is bad or what, but sometimes I just don't get why she got praised so much on her skating speed when she did some obvious speeding moves.

This is why i thought Joannie Rochette was actually better or certainly undermarked in pcs against Yuna. Joannie had really a lot of power generated - watch Chan or her how one stroke and they are off to the races.

 

[AsadaFanBoy]

I think you're right. 3F-3T, 3Lo, 2A in the short. 3F-3T, 2A-3T and 5 more jumping passes in the long (without a 3A) and she will win it all.

Yes, I think you're right

 

[iamchrislao]

Yet you have Yuna who can't do 3loop! much less 3loop as back end of a combo...oh did i mention she can never ever do a 3 axel? yeah. thought so.

That's because Mao UR and and Yuna does not. Simple

 

[Franklin99]

With her 3Ltz ratified this season as well as back in 2007-2008, Mao is one of ONLY 4 women who has gotten all 6 triple jumps ratified in Figure Skating's 100+ year history.

1. Midori Ito
2. Tonya Harding
3. Mao Asada
4. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

 

[4everchan]

With her 3Ltz ratified this season as well as back in 2007-2008, Mao is one of ONLY 4 women who has gotten all 6 triple jumps ratified in Figure Skating's 100+ year history.

1. Midori Ito
2. Tonya Harding
3. Mao Asada
4. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

well ... you may soon need to add (wishful thinking) Alaine and Gabby who are both working on it, especially Alaine (rotated at SA but fell on it)

i am curious about the other 3...

yukari nakano
kimmie meissner
ludmila nelidina

were they missing a jump????

 

[MeineKatze]

With her 3Ltz ratified this season as well as back in 2007-2008, Mao is one of ONLY 4 women who has gotten all 6 triple jumps ratified in Figure Skating's 100+ year history.

1. Midori Ito
2. Tonya Harding
3. Mao Asada
4. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

Damn! don't know much about Harding aside from her nasty crime but the other three are some real skaters out there! Still dreaming of Liza doing a 4T+3T because of her brilliant 3t-3t