2016-17 State of Japanese Ladies Skating

[hippomoomin]

"Star quality" is not simply about face. For me, it is the quality to shine in competitions with a combined total of outfit, presence, and performance.
I think Evgenia is a good example. I personally don't she falls straight into the "pretty face" category. I thought she was below average among all Russian ladies in terms of facial beauty. In practice without costume and good lighting, she looks somewhat boring and average. However, at Skate America last year, she stunned everyone. I don't think it is something a "pretty face" can explain.

Of course it's been brought up before. A lot of people can barely wait for that to happen The possibility will depend on federation politics and on Marin herself. Why should she be on the 2018 Olympics team? Because she has "star quality"? (I'm getting so tired of this so-called quality that apparently brings all the PCS in the house; this is skating, not a beauty pageant). She will have to earn it, just like everyone else.

 

[hippomoomin]

I think it is a little too early to say Wakaba's future. She looks much heavier last weekend than in her summer exhibition, which makes her appear slower. Her advantage is her jump, which she has to maintain to be on the top.
Regarding spins, Satoko has the best among current Japanese ladies, better than Marin, and much better than Wakaba. To improve their spins, both Marin and Wakaba have to be more flexible. Not sure if at this stage it is to be more flexible or if they are willing to change.

 

[ioanna]

Kanako gave up on herself. Wakaba is going through some body changes from what I've seen; her 3-3 wasn't solid at Lombardia. About JSF dropping Satoko as Japan's #1... she's only Japan's #1 on paper. Mao is the real #1 lady so nobody will "dethrone" Satoko as long as she keeps doing her job just like she's been doing for the past 2 years of being a full-time senior. What more can they do to her? Drop her already dropped PCS?

 

[Biellmann]

Kanako gave up on herself. Wakaba is going through some body changes from what I've seen; her 3-3 wasn't solid at Lombardia. About JSF dropping Satoko as Japan's #1... she's only Japan's #1 on paper. Mao is the real #1 lady so nobody will "dethrone" Satoko as long as she keeps doing her job just like she's been doing for the past 2 years of being a full-time senior. What more can they do to her? Drop her already dropped PCS?

All this talk about #1 and "dethroning" isn't really important. Satoko is doing her job, winning medals, she has a career and should skate for herself, that's all what matters. She already has a few titles, more will come i'm sure. Nobody can take this away from her

 

[andyjo24]

Kanako gave up on herself. Wakaba is going through some body changes from what I've seen; her 3-3 wasn't solid at Lombardia. About JSF dropping Satoko as Japan's #1... she's only Japan's #1 on paper. Mao is the real #1 lady so nobody will "dethrone" Satoko as long as she keeps doing her job just like she's been doing for the past 2 years of being a full-time senior. What more can they do to her? Drop her already dropped PCS?

Marin Honda will "dethrone" Mao Asada soon. That will be interesting...

 

[ioanna]

Marin Honda will "dethrone" Mao Asada soon. That will be interesting...

That's what I'm saying. Satoko is just there working hard, doing her job, collecting medals. They can underscore her as much as they want but they can't take away her consistency.

When we're talking about "stars" and "number ones", this is the real question; will Marin Honda "dethrone" Mao Asada on the road to Pyeongchang?

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Kanako gave up on herself. Wakaba is going through some body changes from what I've seen; her 3-3 wasn't solid at Lombardia. About JSF dropping Satoko as Japan's #1... she's only Japan's #1 on paper. Mao is the real #1 lady so nobody will "dethrone" Satoko as long as she keeps doing her job just like she's been doing for the past 2 years of being a full-time senior. What more can they do to her? Drop her already dropped PCS?

She's national champ, and sure somebody can beat her at nationals and then poor unfairly treated undervalued Satoko won't even be Japanese first 'on paper'.
And really... she got high scores at nats last season, they could very well give her lower ones, or just push someone else more (no matter how much you want to complain about her being underscored anyway).

Regarding Wakaba, she had some pretty obvious other problems at Lombardia too, and not a good skate in the LP overall. I wouldn't deduce unstable jumps from that (yet).

 

[ioanna]

She's national champ, and sure somebody can beat her at nationals and then poor unfairly treated undervalued Satoko won't even be Japanese first 'on paper'.
And really... she got high scores at nats last season, they could very well give her lower ones, or just push someone else more (no matter how much you want to complain about her being underscored anyway).

Regarding Wakaba, she had some pretty obvious other problems at Lombardia too, and not a good skate in the LP overall. I wouldn't deduce unstable jumps from that (yet).

I don't really get the point of your post. Poor unfairly treated undervalued Satoko...? Unnecessary sarcasm aside, I'm stating facts, not complaining. Her PCS at Worlds was 7th; if you think that's high we'll agree to disagree.

I also didn't deduce unstable jumps for Wakaba, I was talking strictly about her showing at Lombardia.

 

[hippomoomin]

I have to say that Satoko is "lucky" enough to have a tiny figure and stay in that tiny figure. I don't think she has proportionally changed that much during the entire time I noticed her. So many other Japanese ladies with explosive jumps lose consistency just because their bodies changed a lot. Good techniques can take you as far as your body does not fight back against you. Yulia only becomes slightly heavier than she was two years ago, but that significantly affected her jumps.Mao also might be just 5 lb heavier than when she was 18, and she struggles with her jumps.
And also because Satoko's small built, and safe jumps, she is also less likely to get injured than taller and heavier ladies. In that sense, she is really blessed.
Marin has grown a lot taller in the past year. She might end up as tall as Mao when she is 18. So not sure whether that will help her consistency or not.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I don't really get the point of your post. Poor unfairly treated undervalued Satoko...? Unnecessary sarcasm aside, I'm stating facts, not complaining. Her PCS at Worlds was 7th; if you think that's high we'll agree to disagree.

I also didn't deduce unstable jumps for Wakaba, I was talking strictly about her showing at Lombardia.

My point was pretty obviously that I disagree with you... her PCS being already "dropped" is very much your opinion - which you are entitled too - but not a fact. And than again, there is also the TES, and it would be quite easy to "drop" Satoko there.

 

[puremagic]

I think this is Wakaba's season She so cute, her jumps are very solid. She can surprise all of us. If she could have the same consistency as Satoko, then she will be unstoppable

 

[ioanna]

And than again, there is also the TES, and it would be quite easy to "drop" Satoko there.

This is also very much your opinion - which you are entitled to - but not a fact.

 

[Marin]

Yes, Marin is eligible for 2018.

To be honest, fair or not, I think the JSF would be quite ready to drop Satoko as japanese first... either for Wakaba this season, or for Marin the next (or even for both). And obviously for a "really back" Mao too. After nationals last season I thought a bit differently, but after worlds 2016 and the way the media treated the results and everything... I don't want to sound harsh, but I think Satoko will have to work and fight really hard to keep that spot, probably harder than some others.

That said, she might make it just as well as Wakaba or Marim might 'dethrone' her... I wouldn't feel confident with any prediction about this.

I disagree with you regarding "JSF would be ready to drop Satoko". For now situation of Japanese ladies field is very complicated, we have Mao facing millions of problems and no one know will she be ever back to her previous shape or not. We have Wakaba, who has amazing jumps but undergoing some difficulties ,she became heavier, she has flip issues and tend to underrotate her lutz combo recently. I follow her for 3 seasons so it's pretty obvious she is not the judges favorite and I doubt she will ever be aka "PCS monster". She has to deliver always and competition after competition. On the other hand we have Marin who is age eligible for 2018, potentially having all the advantage over other ladies as an overall package but I doubt she can ever be "Iron girl". She lacks consistency and recently at JGP we have seen her during sp and all the competition, that there was a little ,scared, got by pressure child , not a fierce competitor. I have all the doubts about her consistency and emotions but we shall see, potentially she is the top contender for Japan N1 place. Here we have Satoko, who doesn't have good jumps but has many other qualities( I hope we can agree here) and her main weapon is consistency, she will always deliver and if in competition someone is messing up, Satoko is always there to get medal. Also, recent senior B competition has confirmed that She is still considered as Japan's number 1. Unlike you, I think if someone is more or less a bit more secured for Olympic spot between those girls: Mao, Wakaba, Marin, Rika (she can be wild card ) it is Satoko. And I don't expect JSF to sacrifice one of them because of Mao ( if she doesn't come back) and repeat Daisuke's precedent. Daisuke has medaled previous Olympics and Taka was considered as a wild headcase. While Mao has missed her chance in 2014. Unlike Taka, Satoko is amazingly consistent and delivers at any level of pressure. Logically if JSF has to sacrifice someone for Mao, it will be Wakaba, neither Marin , nor Satoko but it is too early to discuss, We shall see.

 

[mcq]

^^
This is with the scenario that Japan will get 3 spots. Bear in mind that Satoko was 5th and Mao was 7th at last worlds. One Russian (Radionova) is behind, but it is not impossible to have 3 Russians ahead of Satoko (depending on who makes it to the world team later). There will also be up and comings like Gabby Daleman etc who may or may not deliver. The thing is, last Worlds kind of tell me how the judges feel about Satoko (regardless of how I feel about her). She is the girl who came on top when others make mistakes but the judges are more than ready to lowball her once the others skate clean. So when worst case scenario : Russians and American Ladies manage to skate clean, Japan might not be so secure on their 3rd spot. (Actually this could apply to USA too but maybe not the Russians). Of course this is a worst case scenario and I doubt with JSF influence theywould ever let the judges allow this to happen, but it is not something impossible.

 

[Meoima]

In my opinion, Satoko and Marin are sure to be chosen to be at Olympic.

 

[Biellmann]

^^
This is with the scenario that Japan will get 3 spots. Bear in mind that Satoko was 5th and Mao was 7th at last worlds. One Russian (Radionova) is behind, but it is not impossible to have 3 Russians ahead of Satoko (depending on who makes it to the world team later). There will also be up and comings like Gabby Daleman etc who may or may not deliver. The thing is, last Worlds kind of tell me how the judges feel about Satoko (regardless of how I feel about her). She is the girl who came on top when others make mistakes but the judges are more than ready to lowball her once the others skate clean. So when worst case scenario : Russians and American Ladies manage to skate clean, Japan might not be so secure on their 3rd spot. (Actually this could apply to USA too but maybe not the Russians). Of course this is a worst case scenario and I doubt with JSF influence theywould ever let the judges allow this to happen, but it is not something impossible.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I disagree with you regarding "JSF would be ready to drop Satoko". For now situation of Japanese ladies field is very complicated, we have Mao facing millions of problems and no one know will she be ever back to her previous shape or not. We have Wakaba, who has amazing jumps but undergoing some difficulties ,she became heavier, she has flip issues and tend to underrotate her lutz combo recently. I follow her for 3 seasons so it's pretty obvious she is not the judges favorite and I doubt she will ever be aka "PCS monster". She has to deliver always and competition after competition. On the other hand we have Marin who is age eligible for 2018, potentially having all the advantage over other ladies as an overall package but I doubt she can ever be "Iron girl". She lacks consistency and recently at JGP we have seen her during sp and all the competition, that there was a little ,scared, got by pressure child , not a fierce competitor. I have all the doubts about her consistency and emotions but we shall see, potentially she is the top contender for Japan N1 place. Here we have Satoko, who doesn't have good jumps but has many other qualities( I hope we can agree here) and her main weapon is consistency, she will always deliver and if in competition someone is messing up, Satoko is always there to get medal. Also, recent senior B competition has confirmed that She is still considered as Japan's number 1. Unlike you, I think if someone is more or less a bit more secured for Olympic spot between those girls: Mao, Wakaba, Marin, Rika (she can be wild card ) it is Satoko. And I don't expect JSF to sacrifice one of them because of Mao ( if she doesn't come back) and repeat Daisuke's precedent. Daisuke has medaled previous Olympics and Taka was considered as a wild headcase. While Mao has missed her chance in 2014. Unlike Taka, Satoko is amazingly consistent and delivers at any level of pressure. Logically if JSF has to sacrifice someone for Mao, it will be Wakaba, neither Marin , nor Satoko but it is too early to discuss, We shall see.

I haven't been following Wakaba as long as you have, but I guess I'm more optimistic regarding her PCS potential. Her scores at Lombardia were actually pretty good for a newcomer I think, I'd expect her PCS to be good if she skates well. Also - if we agree with it or not - Satoko is not getting all that high PCS either (compared to the field). I wouldn't be surprised if Wakaba would reach similar marks relatively fast (aka potentially this season - again, if she manages to skate well).
Also, I agree with you that Satoko is the most likely candidate regarding the Olympic team in 2018. But the question I answered to was (as far as I understood), who will go in as Japanese 1°. It probably sounds contradictory to what I said before, but... I think her consistency and non-jump qualities will keep her in the mix. But all of Mao, Marin and Wakaba would have a higher potential if they get/keep it together and deliver. I think some of them will, some won't. I didn't mean to say the JSF will be ready or happy to drop Satoko of the team (in that case, more the opposite), but I think they'd be happy to push someone else as they're new golden girl. Mainly, because it looks like despite all the work she puts in, Satokos jumps might never improve to the point were they are not holding her back, and therefor other ladies could have a higher scoring potential. So it's more like Satoko would be that dependable 2nd or 3rd girl, that would keep Japan afloat if the 'stars' mess up. Not a cool position to have, and I don't mean to say it's what I want, but it's the vibe I'm getting from things like her marks at worlds, the media treatment ect.

 

[mcq]

Actually, Wakaba's PCS is not bad. It is comparable to Medvedeva's first senior event (2015 Ondrej Nepela Trophy) where Medvedeva had 27.36 and 58.40 for SP and LP respectively. Wakaba's PCS at lombardia is 28.16 and 58.32 for SP and LP. She is not disliked by the judges at all, as most people seems to be perceiving. In fact, I think I can see her having a meteoric rise on her senior debut if she manages to skate consistently clean. She is still having some problems with her jumps though, so I am not betting my money on her too.

 

[ioanna]

It's not like the Russian ladies are great examples of consistency... I'm waiting to see what happens at Worlds 2017 in Helsinki which will technically be neutral. In Boston, the USFSA pushed Wagner and especially Gold in PCS as much as they could to end that 10 year old drought. Speaking of which - Satoko beat both Gold and Pogorilaya in the FS.

 

[moriel]

It's not like the Russian ladies are great examples of consistency... I'm waiting to see what happens at Worlds 2017 in Helsinki which will technically be neutral. In Boston, the USFSA pushed Wagner and especially Gold in PCS as much as they could to end that 10 year old drought. Speaking of which - Satoko beat both Gold and Pogorilaya in the FS.

Actually she was tied with Pogo (0.2 difference, thats hardly ever "beat").

The main issue about Russian ladies is that there are many of them, so overall, they are pretty consistent (if one has a bad day, there will be another one who delivers).



Well, back to the topic... I think that, unless Wakaba has a perfect season this year, Satoko will be still #1.
I don´t see Mao getting back the #1 spot - when she is on, she is better than Satoko, but on average, Satoko wins more and Mao doesn´t have the PCs cushion. So Satoko is a safe bet: she won´t win gold, but she will still have a solid skate and place well no matter what, which may be important to secure 3 spots, for example.
She is a great beat for Worlds because of this - you kinda guarantee the next year 3 spots because Satoko will always get a top placement, and at least one of the other skaters will not have a meltdown. Not sure if she is a good bet for Olympics though, because there are way too many skaters that can beat her when on (2 Americans, 3 Russians, 2 Japanese - Ashley and Gracie, Russia has enough skaters to pick 3, Japan will have Mao, Wakaba and Marin to chose from, at least), and its very likely that at least 3 of them will do well, so imho her chances to medal are pretty low - and i´m not sure if the big feds really see difference between a #4 and a #7 placement, lets say.