2016-2017 State of U.S. Men Figure Skating

[ice coverage]

Nathan was in the arena for the men's FS yesterday, and as super-competitive as he appears to be, I have no doubt he was mentally taking notes on what he needs to do to win Nats. ...

Hmmm ... I wonder whether Nathan took advantage of Chicago's relative proximity to Detroit not only to take in the event as a spectator, support his friends, and scout out his competition -- but also to squeeze in some face time and training time with Raf.
Nathan's ISU bio was updated again today, and it still lists both Raf and MZ as his coaches; and both California and Canton as his training locales.

http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00054124.htm​

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This weekend shows that Nationals is going to be a brutal fight for those two spots. Adam and Jason are ready to go, and I can't wait to see what Nathan and Max have to say in answer to that.

Congratulations to Shoma, Jason, and Adam :yay:.
Without taking anything away from Jason and Adam, I will note that after 2013 Skate America, Adam and Max (who won silver and bronze) were looking like contenders for Sochi. But we all know how things turned out. (Max did go to 2014 Worlds.)
Not wishing ill on anyone. Just sayin' that the season is young :yes:.

 

[Skater Boy]

Nathan was in the arena for the men's FS yesterday, and as super-competitive as he appears to be, I have no doubt he was mentally taking notes on what he needs to do to win Nats.

Max and Nathan go against Shoma and Javi in Russia, Nathan and Adam will face off against each other and Javi in France, Max goes against Patrick and Boyang in China, and Jason and Nathan go head to head with each other and Hanyu in Japan.

Really excited for Skate Canada next week, where we'll see Patrick, Hanyu, Ross and Grant, and a host of other possible contenders like Mura and Reynolds.

It should be a very interesting GP! And I think it will give us a lot of information heading into Nationals.

Question where does Nathan train? It seems like these skaters have an awful lot of money to go travelling when they aren't competing. A lot of them go to other competitions not to mention trips. But then again maybe it is a rich person's sports and they have wealthy parents or another great paying job?

 

[StitchMonkey]

I swear that i read that Ashley Wagner confirmed The Skating Lesson that Nathan is no longer in their training group. I was traveling and only half paying attention, but am pretty sure i saw it... anyone else see it?

 

[Skater Boy]

At this point my guess is Nathan will be the USFA push regardless. Why he is young, he has big jumps and scoring potential and Brown still doesn't have the quad. The Japan Open may have, good or bad revived some hope in Abbott but really he needs to get a quad and skate reliably in international competition. So you have a dog fight for the second men's spot with Max, Adam, Jeremy and Jason the top contenders then a bunch of pretenders including Timothy, Vincent,Grant et al.

 

[Mrs. P]

At this point my guess is Nathan will be the USFA push regardless. Why he is young, he has big jumps and scoring potential and Brown still doesn't have the quad. The Japan Open may have, good or bad revived some hope in Abbott but really he needs to get a quad and skate reliably in international competition. So you have a dog fight for the second men's spot with Max, Adam, Jeremy and Jason the top contenders then a bunch of pretenders including Timothy, Vincent,Grant et al.

Jeremy isn't competing this season. Japan Open was his only competition. He plans to return in the Olympic season.

 

[ice coverage]

I swear that i read that Ashley Wagner confirmed The Skating Lesson that Nathan is no longer in their training group. I was traveling and only half paying attention, but am pretty sure i saw it... anyone else see it?

I hope someone will answer you, Stitch.

I skip far more TSL videos than I actually sit down to watch, so if Ashley said something definitive to TSL, I would not be surprised that I missed it.
I don't recall any mention of Ashley comments in my non-meticulous perusal of GS posts about Nathan, but again, my oblivion means nothing one way or the other.

I am aware only of stuff that does not seem definitive (IMO) as to whether Nathan and Raf have cut ties. The IFS mention, and casual comments from Patrick and the Shibs. I will admit to wishful thinking that I hope that Nathan and Raf have not completely severed ties.

 

[Eislauf]

At this point my guess is Nathan will be the USFA push regardless. Why he is young, he has big jumps and scoring potential and Brown still doesn't have the quad. The Japan Open may have, good or bad revived some hope in Abbott but really he needs to get a quad and skate reliably in international competition. So you have a dog fight for the second men's spot with Max, Adam, Jeremy and Jason the top contenders then a bunch of pretenders including Timothy, Vincent,Grant et al.

Yes! With his youth, world-class jumps and charismatic performance abilities, I'm betting that the USFSA recognizes that Nathan is the future. Could he polish up his components? Sure. But the raw material is there, and like it or not, the elite competition standard is 1-2 quads in the short and 3-4 in the long.

 

[Tavi...]

At this point my guess is Nathan will be the USFA push regardless. Why he is young, he has big jumps and scoring potential and Brown still doesn't have the quad. The Japan Open may have, good or bad revived some hope in Abbott but really he needs to get a quad and skate reliably in international competition. So you have a dog fight for the second men's spot with Max, Adam, Jeremy and Jason the top contenders then a bunch of pretenders including Timothy, Vincent,Grant et al.

Well that's one way to look at it, of course. And I'm sure USFS will be supportive of Nathan. Still, you might want to remember that of the 7 quads Nathan attempted at Finlandia, only one of them was properly landed, and while his presentation has improved, it's nowhere near at the level of Jason's. More to the point, so far this season, Jason with his 2 imperfect quads has outscored Nathan in international competition by about 12 points.

 

[el henry]

Yes! With his youth, world-class jumps and charismatic performance abilities, I'm betting that the USFSA recognizes that Nathan is the future. Could he polish up his components? Sure. But the raw material is there, and like it or not, the elite competition standard is 1-2 quads in the short and 3-4 in the long.

I'm sorry, charismatic performance abilities? Nathan? :shocked: We are not watching the same skater:noshake:

It would be nice if Nathan's jumps and the truly charismatic performance abilities of Jason could be combined, but they are not. And from where I'm watching, Jason is closer to several quads than Nathan is to Jason's performance chops. Nathan may have raw materials, but he is far from the polished product.....

 

[apgold]

I hope someone will answer you, Stitch.

I skip far more TSL videos than I actually sit down to watch, so if Ashley said something definitive to TSL, I would not be surprised that I missed it.
I don't recall any mention of Ashley comments in my non-meticulous perusal of GS posts about Nathan, but again, my oblivion means nothing one way or the other.

I am aware only of stuff that does not seem definitive (IMO) as to whether Nathan and Raf have cut ties. The IFS mention, and casual comments from Patrick and the Shibs. I will admit to wishful thinking that I hope that Nathan and Raf have not completely severed ties.

I don't recall Ashley explicitly saying that during her conversation with TSL but I would need to watch them again. FWIW, during Mariah's talk with Dave, she mentioned enjoying training with Adam and Ashley, but did not mention Nathan. Given that Mariah's only been with Raf for 2 months, perhaps Nathan's switch to Marina has also been solidified in that time period? Again, nothing definitive but the what I've seen, evidence points to Nathan moving to Marina FT.

 

[Jammers]

Jeremy isn't competing this season. Japan Open was his only competition. He plans to return in the Olympic season.

Jeremy is returning in 2018? 32 years old no quads and 3 years off and he think he can compete for a spot? Let's just hope he somehow doesn't get lucky and find his way onto the Olympic team yet again. His time is past.

 

[ice coverage]

I don't recall Ashley explicitly saying that during her conversation with TSL but I would need to watch them again. FWIW, during Mariah's talk with Dave, she mentioned enjoying training with Adam and Ashley, but did not mention Nathan. Given that Mariah's only been with Raf for 2 months, perhaps Nathan's switch to Marina has also been solidified in that time period? Again, nothing definitive but the what I've seen, evidence points to Nathan moving to Marina FT.

Thx for weighing in, apgold.
Now that you mention it, I did happen to see the Mariah :luv17: TSL interview, with no mention of Nathan.

But ... for now, I will stubbornly :yes: cling to my wishful thinking that Raf still is involved on some level, even if Nathan seems to be spending the majority of his time in Canton with MZ.
Expanding on my earlier thought, if Raf still is involved and if(?) everyone's busy schedules could have been coordinated at Skate America, it would have been a chance for Raf and MZ to compare notes as Nathan had a training session. And/or for Nathan to have a session just with Raf.

I guess Trophee de France will tell the tale -- if nothing official/definitive is announced before then.
If Nathan and Raf show absolutely no sign of working together there, I will have to give up once and for all.

 

[Tavi...]

In this TSL clip, Ashley states that Nathan is no longer training with them, at about 11.27:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7VJrIkR3Yts

 

[ice coverage]

In this TSL clip, Ashley states that Nathan is no longer training with them, at about 11.27:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7VJrIkR3Yts

Thanks for the TSL link, Tavi , complete with time code.

Can't bring myself to click the Like button, b/c I wish Nathan still were training (at least partly) with Team Raf, but I appreciated the opportunity to hear what Ashley said.
Bummer. Sigh. :sad4:

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Good luck to Grant and Ross at Skate Canada :yay:.

 

[Ice Dance]

I'm sorry, charismatic performance abilities? Nathan? :shocked: We are not watching the same skater:noshake:

I think we can acknowledge that this is your opinion, el henry. But also, I think you should acknowledge that there is a difference between comparing an athlete with 3 years of senior international experience and one who has just competed in one senior event. A bit apples vs. oranges.

If, however, we compare apples to apples, you can see that the junior judges do not agree with you about Nathan's potential & components.

His components at last season's JGPF:
SP 37.11
LP 71.48

His components at JGP Austria in 2012:
SP 32.10
LP 67.34

Jason Brown's components at his final Junior Worlds in 2013:
SP 33.44
LP 73.06

The disparity at a similar age & experience simply isn't there. To me this implies that the judges believe Nathan has skating skills, performance ability, etc. They believe he has potential.

 

[karne]

I disagree. The scores were generally lower in Juniors at that time. Joshua and Jason broke 150 for their FSs at that JWC and it was a record - and both were definitely Senior at their level of skating skills and interpretation at the time. Junior scores have been trending upwards since.

When it comes to the second mark, now that Joshua is gone :sad21:, there are none in the US who can now hold a candle to Jason. No-one else is even remotely in the same league.

 

[TGee]

I'm sorry, charismatic performance abilities? Nathan? :shocked: We are not watching the same skater:noshake:

It would be nice if Nathan's jumps and the truly charismatic performance abilities of Jason could be combined, but they are not. And from where I'm watching, Jason is closer to several quads than Nathan is to Jason's performance chops. Nathan may have raw materials, but he is far from the polished product.....

Not polished definitely..... but there was something. It said watch me.

Charisma is not too strong a word. Did I think that it was realized in the performance? No not yet...but it is there. I can see why Marina wants him with her group, and what she intends to draw out.

I was not expecting to see lovely extension. There is something in the arms that speaks of future expression once he can jump and express in the same sequence.

Raw talent absolutely...great talent, very very likely.

 

[mrrice]

When will we be seeing Max Arron on the GP?

 

[karne]

When will we be seeing Max Arron on the GP?

Rostelecom Cup. So not this weekend, weekend after.

Keen to see the Lion King on the prowl!

 

[Tavi...]

I think we can acknowledge that this is your opinion, el henry. But also, I think you should acknowledge that there is a difference between comparing an athlete with 3 years of senior international experience and one who has just competed in one senior event. A bit apples vs. oranges.

If, however, we compare apples to apples, you can see that the junior judges do not agree with you about Nathan's potential & components.

His components at last season's JGPF:
SP 37.11
LP 71.48

His components at JGP Austria in 2012:
SP 32.10
LP 67.34

Jason Brown's components at his final Junior Worlds in 2013:
SP 33.44
LP 73.06

The disparity at a similar age & experience simply isn't there. To me this implies that the judges believe Nathan has skating skills, performance ability, etc. They believe he has potential.

Im not going to argue the merits of Jason v Nathan, but I actually don't think you're comparing apples to apples here.

The average PCS awarded to top junior and senior men has climbed quite a bit since 2013, so in my opinion, Nathan's components at the JGPF in 2015 are not directly comparable with Jason's or Josh's at JWC 2013. Frankly, I think the more useful comparison when assessing Nathan's PCS scores is to look at where judges have ranked him versus his peers, at the same competition. At the 2015 JWC, for example, PCS for the top man - Shoma - was 38.06 / 76.34; for #2 Boyang Jin it was 33.54 / 66.04, and for Nathan (who placed 4th) it was 32.82 / 69.22. So at that competition the judges viewed Nathan's presentation as more comparable to Boyang's than to Shoma's. Six months later, at the JGPF 2015, Nathan had the highest PCS of all the competitors, slightly above Dmitri Aliev's (36.05 / 69.52). However, since Boyang and Shoma were both competing as seniors by then, it's hard to say what the increase in Nathan's PCS means.

By the way, I'm a bit confused by your mention of potential, since that's not a component being marked.