2016-2017 State of U.S. Men Figure Skating

[andromache]

The thing is, we know Max is capable of executing beautiful quads that receive great GOE, but so far this season, 4 of the 6 he's attempted haven't been clean - he's either had a fall, a pop, an <, or a wonky landing. That's why I think it's key for him to show he's back on form at COC.

As to Nathan, unless he can deliver now (and he may well be able to), I don't see the logic for giving him a Worlds spot this year simply because he's the future. I think we need to focus on the 2017 team most likely to win 3 World and Olympic spots for 2018, whether or not he's on it.

I agree with you on both points. If we had three spots already, I'd say Nathan should 100% be sent as the third guy as an investment in the future, but with only two spots, we can't really afford it unless we think he'll be on form to deliver at Worlds. I anticipate that, by Nationals, Nathan and Marina will have something better to show for the LP than he's got now. He'll either be hitting those 5 quads in the LP or (more likely) cutting down on the TES to something more manageable. Last year showed that (whether or not people were happy about it) the US isn't giving the National title to someone doing a messy jump drill.

Come Nationals, Max can't afford to make too many mistakes. Jason and Adam have better PCS and GOEs on non-jump elements, and they're starting to creep up on him in BV with their quad attempts. Not winning a medal at CoC will definitely put Max behind them going into Nationals.

 

[Sydney Rose]

My take on Nathan is that he and his Tiger Mother/Father/Whoever plan to go for broke now, with the goal of him winning an OGM in 2018. They probably figure that if Hanyu could do it in 2014, why can't Nathan? Plus his body is unlikely to hold up until 2022 and who knows what his competition will be like by then so why risk waiting?

Perhaps conflict over the wisdom of such a strategy is the reason he is no longer being coached by Rafael.

 

[andromache]

My take on Nathan is that he and his Tiger Mother/Father/Whoever plan to go for broke now, with the goal of him winning an OGM in 2018. They probably figure that if Hanyu could do it in 2014, why can't Nathan? Plus his body is unlikely to hold up until 2022 and who knows what his competition will be like by then so why risk waiting?

Perhaps conflict over the wisdom of such a strategy is the reason he is no longer being coached by Rafael.

Ugh, I hate this idea and really, really hope it's not what the plan is. I want to be a fan of skaters who are around for more than a few years, not ones who come out of nowhere to win their OGM and never compete again! (Not that Nathan would be "coming out of nowhere," but he would be relative to the rest of the men's field.)

An Olympic medal is nice, but is it as nice as having a real legacy or impact on the sport? Tara Lipinski compared to Michelle Kwan? Skaters who win a medal and leave the sport before they've made their mark make me sad, though I understand Nathan's health and future goals are a factor as well. I hope he doesn't end up with more serious injuries and that Marina takes care of him.

 

[Plisskin]

I really like Nathan and see so much promise in him to be a U.S. male skater we haven't seen in a loooong time, but I don't think he'll last beyond 2018 . Unless I see a change in his garbage 5 quad FS layout at NHK, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he got injured again this season and had to retire. His technical ambition will be his undoing in his fast food like hunger to be successful now, even though his body is telling him to chill out. Which, really he could contend now with just 2-3 quads in the FS and better SS and choreo. But no...
For the future in U.S. Men's I've now been looking towards Vincent and the other juniors coming up right now doing quads and have good SS.

 

[karne]

The good thing and the bad thing for Max is that so far this year he's well off his personal bests - about 20 points, I think. It's good because if he figures out the problem, he can potentially improve his score a lot without adding new elements.

Well, of course, but it also depends heavily on the mood the judges are in. In Russia his FS was nearly clean, he gave a good performance in a program that for him is chock-full of choreography, and boom. 76. The last time he got a 76 was, I'm pretty sure, at Nebelhorn 2015 when he popped both quad Sals.

It's bad because if he doesn't correct it, he could lose out. But the thing is, a lot of his competitors at COC are also off their PBS, including Han Yan and Jin, both of whom will be at home, as well as Brezina, Kovtun and Voronov. So the same thing applies to them, and Brezina and Voronov both seem to be trending upward after coaching changes. Also, Han Yan and Boyang are both hugely underperforming so far this year. So the question for me in terms of medals at COC is whether Max can get back to where he was at SA and Worlds, and whether the 4CC Chan, Yan, and Jin will show up.

Han Yan has been trending downwards for a long time, 4CC notwithstanding. Remember, he didn't even make the LP at Worlds. Boyang is attempting the admirable and I'm not sure what we'll see, that's true. We must assume that Chan will be ludicrously overmarked regardless of what he puts out - but I genuinely think Max can overhaul Brezina and Voronov. You can call Max "inconsistent" but he's still more consistent than those two.

Jason's chances at NHK are actually more of a nail biter for me. Kolyada and Hanyu are way off their personal bests so far this year, but Alexei seems to have come out of nowhere, Nam has gotten his mojo back, and Nathan is racking up high scores even with errors. Thankfully Jason is having a strong year, but even if he skates his best, he could place behind a strong Nathan, a resurgent Kolyada, and a Hanyu who is back to normal; if he falters and Bychenko contains his upward trajectory, Bychenko could also beat him. .

Hang on, I think we've made an error somewhere. Kolyada can't be at both CoC and NHK because he was at CoR.

I think Jason can certainly beat all of the above, except probably Hanyu, even if Hanyu has an off day. But a lot will depend on the TP at NHK. I hope he wasn't rattled by his clean LP quad getting called under at Skate America. Here's hoping the TP is at least consistent there rather than totally whacky like they were at SkAm.

But, I'll admit, I really miss Josh. I hope he is doing well (wouldn't he make a good commentator?). I remember thinking 2018 would be his Olympics.

I miss Josh as well. I miss that my trio never once stood on a team together as they should have been. I miss his beautiful jumps and the gorgeous choreography and the shy grin when people gave him standing Os.

At this point, my guess would be Jason and Adam for the worlds team. Max should have a valid shot too, but I'm not sure the judges would go with him even if he skated well (his marks so far indicate a no for me) - which isn't fair, but if I focus on probability over what I'd want, I'm afraid it's likely.

Unfortunately, this is true. He always gets hosed at US Nationals and never gets the same rate of inflation as everyone else. And this year he not only has to go against overinflated Adam and rightly favourite Jason, but also the new golden boy Chen.

For the World's I'd like to see Jason and Adam, purely personal because I love both their FS programs, though I do think Adam's SP needs some tweaking still.

I take it by "tweaking" you mean "adding some actual choreography?"

Do we only have 2 spots for our Men?

Yes, because the ISU is stupid and thinks that all 3 men finishing in the top 10 is not deserving of 3 spots.

Come Nationals, Max can't afford to make too many mistakes. Jason and Adam have better PCS and GOEs on non-jump elements, and they're starting to creep up on him in BV with their quad attempts. Not winning a medal at CoC will definitely put Max behind them going into Nationals.

Max can never afford to make any single mistake. After all, the USFS showed that just one doubled Salchow in otherwise perfect performances is enough for them to fall over themselves robbing him of a title.

 

[ice coverage]

Re Nathan and Raf:

On Nov 11 in the GP France SP thread, the ever-alert frida brought the following to my attention.

BTW I looked up Nathan's profile, just to look up his former scores. And they have Rafael listed as a former coach.

http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00054124.htm

I never thought this was permanent! :sad21:

As of then, the ISU bio named only MZ as "Coach."

But lo and behold, since then, the plot has thickened again.

Hat tip to Sylvia at FSU, who noted that Nathan's ISU bio was revised yet again on Nov 12. (Now includes his GP results from this weekend.)

And ... under "Coach," the latest version now lists MZ, Oleg, and Raf.

 

[frida80]

Re Nathan and Raf:

On Nov 11 in the GP France SP thread, the ever-alert frida brought the following to my attention.



As of then, the ISU bio named only MZ as "Coach."

But lo and behold, since then, the plot has thickened again.

Hat tip to Sylvia at FSU, who noted that Nathan's ISU bio was revised yet again on Nov 12. (Now includes his GP results from this weekend.)

And ... under "Coach," the latest version now lists MZ, Oleg, and Raf.

They changed it again? What's goig on here? Is Rafael his coach or not and why did they change it if he still was! I'm so frustrated with all of this. If he is his coach he could've at least sat beside him in the kiss and cry.

 

[andromache]

Max can never afford to make any single mistake. After all, the USFS showed that just one doubled Salchow in otherwise perfect performances is enough for them to fall over themselves robbing him of a title.

IMO, in a thread for those of us who are interested in all the top US men and want to support all of them, it's kind of inappropriate to make constant insinuations that only Max and Jason are deserving of high marks and that anyone who has ever scored better than them is somehow an illegitimate victory.

 

[karne]

IMO, in a thread for those of us who are interested in all the top US men and want to support all of them, it's kind of inappropriate to make constant insinuations that only Max and Jason are deserving of high marks and that anyone who has ever scored better than them is somehow an illegitimate victory.

So do tell me, then. Who in the US should score on par with, let alone higher, than Jason on the PCS front?

And I supposed you think that when a skater's only error is a doubled Salchow, that immediately makes them unworthy of winning the National title?

 

[andromache]

So do tell me, then. Who in the US should score on par with, let alone higher, than Jason on the PCS front?

And I supposed you think that when a skater's only error is a doubled Salchow, that immediately makes them unworthy of winning the National title?

I would have Jason on top in PCS. But IMO, Adam's consistency has helped him earn more PCS than he probably deserves, as is the case with a lot of skaters.

And a doubled salchow certainly doesn't disqualify one from winning Nationals but it really depends on how everyone else skated. If someone skated foot-perfect and earned higher GOEs and PCS, it isn't highway robbery.

 

[karne]

But IMO, Adam's consistency has helped him earn more PCS than he probably deserves, as is the case with a lot of skaters.

And on this, we finally find something on which we agree.

If someone skated foot-perfect and earned higher GOEs and PCS, it isn't highway robbery.

But what if that someone didn't actually skate foot-perfect, just was given a lot of leniency from the TP?

 

[TGee]

They changed it again? What's goig on here? Is Rafael his coach or not and why did they change it if he still was! I'm so frustrated with all of this. If he is his coach he could've at least sat beside him in the kiss and cry.

But we also only saw Morozov with Denis Ten, although Frank Caroll is still first in the listing of coaches on Ten's ISU bio.

So, something not entirely clear there either.....

 

[andromache]

And on this, we finally find something on which we agree.


But what if that someone didn't actually skate foot-perfect, just was given a lot of leniency from the TP?

Sometimes the TP isn't perfect because they don't have the benefit of all the time we do to analyze and zoom in and slow-mo and debate. It doesn't mean someone's win was unfair. People critiqued the Sochi ladies TP to hell and back but that still doesn't make Adelina's win any less legitimate.

Feel free to have the skaters and performances you prefer over others and to personally disagree with results, but your own opinions and conclusions are not objectively true and the people who disagree with you don't deserve to be disparaged through your negative tone and negative insinuations.

 

[frida80]

But we also only saw Morozov with Denis Ten, although Frank Caroll is still first in the listing of coaches on Ten's ISU bio.

So, something not entirely clear there either.....

I don't think anyone really knows anything anymore. This is just confusing.

 

[sc8]

Yes, because the ISU is stupid and thinks that all 3 men finishing in the top 10 is not deserving of 3 spots.

The ISU does need to reconsider their 13 number rule. Three in the top 10 in any discipline should be reason enough to keep 3 for that country. Actually, I'd like to see a new system that allows all top 10 ranked season skaters in each discipline qualify for worlds, or usomething like that. While it would benefit Russia most in Ladies, right now, the world's best should be at worlds - even if that means more than 3 for some countries in some disciplines. They can figure out another way to ensure broad representation of nations and regions. But, the top 10 should be at worlds, don't you agree?

 

[karne]

Actually, I'd like to see a new system that allows all top 10 ranked season skaters in each discipline qualify for worlds, or usomething like that. While it would benefit Russia most in Ladies, right now, the world's best should be at worlds - even if that means more than 3 for some countries in some disciplines. They can figure out another way to ensure broad representation of nations and regions. But, the top 10 should be at worlds, don't you agree?

No. The only people that benefits are the big skating countries. The people that hurts are the little skating countries.

What is needed is a simple amendment. Something simple like: "However, in circumstances where nations are represented by three (3) skaters and all three of those skaters finish in the top 10, three places are automatically retained for the following year". The 13 can remain for countries with two skaters to qualify three and countries with three skaters who have the others finish outside the top ten (see: Japan in 2015).

 

[Yatagarasu]

I take it by "tweaking" you mean "adding some actual choreography?"

I happen to think he has choreography in his SP, and anything can be improved... I do want to see the quad in the short though and those are his plans. Of course so is returning the 4Lz in the long, which overall is the ideal result this season, but I'll take the quad in the short

 

[sc8]

Well, of course, but it also depends heavily on the mood the judges are in. In Russia his FS was nearly clean, he gave a good performance in a program that for him is chock-full of choreography, and boom. 76. The last time he got a 76 was, I'm pretty sure, at Nebelhorn 2015 when he popped both quad Sals.



Han Yan has been trending downwards for a long time, 4CC notwithstanding. Remember, he didn't even make the LP at Worlds. Boyang is attempting the admirable and I'm not sure what we'll see, that's true. We must assume that Chan will be ludicrously overmarked regardless of what he puts out - but I genuinely think Max can overhaul Brezina and Voronov. You can call Max "inconsistent" but he's still more consistent than those two.



Hang on, I think we've made an error somewhere. Kolyada can't be at both CoC and NHK because he was at CoR.

I think Jason can certainly beat all of the above, except probably Hanyu, even if Hanyu has an off day. But a lot will depend on the TP at NHK. I hope he wasn't rattled by his clean LP quad getting called under at Skate America. Here's hoping the TP is at least consistent there rather than totally whacky like they were at SkAm.



I miss Josh as well. I miss that my trio never once stood on a team together as they should have been. I miss his beautiful jumps and the gorgeous choreography and the shy grin when people gave him standing Os.



Unfortunately, this is true. He always gets hosed at US Nationals and never gets the same rate of inflation as everyone else. And this year he not only has to go against overinflated Adam and rightly favourite Jason, but also the new golden boy Chen.



I take it by "tweaking" you mean "adding some actual choreography?"



Yes, because the ISU is stupid and thinks that all 3 men finishing in the top 10 is not deserving of 3 spots.



Max can never afford to make any single mistake. After all, the USFS showed that just one doubled Salchow in otherwise perfect performances is enough for them to fall over themselves robbing him of a title.

No. The only people that benefits are the big skating countries. The people that hurts are the little skating countries.

What is needed is a simple amendment. Something simple like: "However, in circumstances where nations are represented by three (3) skaters and all three of those skaters finish in the top 10, three places are automatically retained for the following year". The 13 can remain for countries with two skaters to qualify three and countries with three skaters who have the others finish outside the top ten (see: Japan in 2015).

I could live with that! You are right that it would only benefit the big skating nations: China (pairs), Russia (ladies, pairs, dance), US (ladies), Japan (ladies, men) in my lifetime. But, it a great position to be in where we have four men who deserve to compete at worlds right now: Aaron, Brown, Chen, Rippon.

 

[karne]

I could live with that! You are right that it would only benefit the big skating nations: China (pairs), Russia (ladies, pairs, dance), US (ladies), Japan (ladies, men) in my lifetime. But, it a great position to be in where we have four men who deserve to compete at worlds right now: Aaron, Brown, Chen, Rippon.

Yes, and it will break my heart when the USFS' agenda inevitably happens, and his eyes are sad again even as he sends his friends off with a hug. But there must be a limit on spots at Worlds, and it must be a sensible one, or the big countries will overrun it. Personally, I think every country should be allowed three, and if you can fill them, great, if you can't, oh well. No more earning and losing spots on entirely stupid rules.

Think about how ridiculous this is: the US men in Boston, one, two and three, all put out absolutely spectacular free skates. Spectacular in anyone's book. They were clean, they were perfect, they were wonderful, and at least one of them was underscored. They all finished in the top ten - but they lost a spot.

The Japanese men, meanwhile, slopped and stumbled and spluttered their way to an overscored pair of results that added up to less than thirteen - so they get three spots back. Two sloppy free skates are somehow better, in the ISU's book, than three almost perfect ones. Total nonsense.

 

[Tavi...]

Well, of course, but it also depends heavily on the mood the judges are in. In Russia his FS was nearly clean, he gave a good performance in a program that for him is chock-full of choreography, and boom. 76. The last time he got a 76 was, I'm pretty sure, at Nebelhorn 2015 when he popped both quad Sals.



Han Yan has been trending downwards for a long time, 4CC notwithstanding. Remember, he didn't even make the LP at Worlds. Boyang is attempting the admirable and I'm not sure what we'll see, that's true. We must assume that Chan will be ludicrously overmarked regardless of what he puts out - but I genuinely think Max can overhaul Brezina and Voronov. You can call Max "inconsistent" but he's still more consistent than those two.



Hang on, I think we've made an error somewhere. Kolyada can't be at both CoC and NHK because he was at CoR.

I think Jason can certainly beat all of the above, except probably Hanyu, even if Hanyu has an off day. But a lot will depend on the TP at NHK. I hope he wasn't rattled by his clean LP quad getting called under at Skate America. Here's hoping the TP is at least consistent there rather than totally whacky like they were at SkAm.



I miss Josh as well. I miss that my trio never once stood on a team together as they should have been. I miss his beautiful jumps and the gorgeous choreography and the shy grin when people gave him standing Os.



Unfortunately, this is true. He always gets hosed at US Nationals and never gets the same rate of inflation as everyone else. And this year he not only has to go against overinflated Adam and rightly favourite Jason, but also the new golden boy Chen.



I take it by "tweaking" you mean "adding some actual choreography?"



Yes, because the ISU is stupid and thinks that all 3 men finishing in the top 10 is not deserving of 3 spots.



Max can never afford to make any single mistake. After all, the USFS showed that just one doubled Salchow in otherwise perfect performances is enough for them to fall over themselves robbing him of a title.

Okay.

I'm someone who always roots for Max to do well, so please don't take what I'm about to say as Max bashing. You think Max gave a good FS performance, but after rewatching it, I don't really agree. I thought it was only okay. You're right that the judges don't do him any favors as to PCS, but the fact is, (1) his performance generally seemed to lack energy and commitment, e.g., his heart didn't really seem in it; and (2) he gave away a lot of points on levels, in GOE, and because his first combo was only a +2T instead of a 3T.

I guess you can argue that other guys would get higher GOE on similarly executed jumps, and maybe you're right, I don't know. But for me, the first jump he really attacked in that characteristic way of his was his second 3A. And he got rewarded with + 1.86 GOE for that. So to me, his GOE reflected what I saw.

His apparent lack of energy may have been jet lag or focusing on giving a clean program, or something else, but whatever it was, I feel sure it impacted his execution and his scores. Because when he skates with confidence, he executes well and scores well.

That said, I absolutely think he can beat Brezina, Yan, Voronov, and Kovtun (Kolyada is an NHK,; sorry for any confusion). But as I said re Jason, I tend to try to kind of play devil's advocate in order to manage my own expectations. Because as we all know, ice is slippery, and except for the favor dfew, medalling depends on what happens on the day.