2016-2017 State of U.S. Men Figure Skating

[jace93]

I would say that if anyone, male or female, doesn't start off with some impressive victories, they will not be major players. So I have hope for Nathan, who made the GPF in his first season, but not much hope for Adam, Max or Jason, who have been waiting for their breakthrough season for years. Adam will inspire us with his late in career comebacks, but he will not be a world or Olympic medalist. Jason will inspire us with his dancing and his happy personality, but he will not be a world or Olympic medalist. Max will have fans of his athletic, masculine style, but he will not get a world medal. They are all quality skaters, but not in the league with Evan, Brian, or even Todd Eldredge, who either won medals or were always in medal contention. But Nathan? If he stays healthy and improves his artistry, he may have a chance in 2018 or definitely 2022.

Tell that to Javier Fernandez,Denis Ten and Tatsuki Machida ... the last few years have been full of late bloomers XD

 

[Mrs. P]

Tell that to Javier Fernandez,Denis Ten and Tatsuki Machida ... the last few years have been full of late bloomers XD

Yes. Javier's big breakout season came in 2010-2011. He was 20. Machida when from having zero quads at SA 2012 to landing three beautiful ones and winning SA in a dominant fashion a year later. He was 23. But even at 2012, I had a feeling he was on the cusp of something awesome -- I absolutely LOVED his SP by Lambiel and even though the FS did not go as well he still won bronze and beat Hanyu in the free skate -- was really glad to see him live.

Of course the only bad part about Machida's case is that we didn't get to see him dominate the scene for very long, so I guess that's the bad thing about late bloomers.

Denis Ten is an interesting case. He was just shy of 20 when he won his first World medal, so that's still relatively young. However, I will point out that up to 2013 Worlds he had a TERRIBLE season. He had finished 9th and 6th at his two Grand Prix events and finished a dismal 12th at 4CC getting beat by all three USA men (at the time Aaron, Dornbush and Miner), Misha Ge, Nan Song and Canada's Andrei Rogozine (guys remember him?). So to go from that to winning the silver medal at Worlds with a winning free skate was pretty shocking but definitely feel good. I remember there was a huge debate that he should have won goal given Patrick Chan's flawed FS.

What can I say, I love when sport is unpredictable. And so do other people -- that's why people love Cinderellas in the NCAA tournament.

 

[Tavi...]

I would say that if anyone, male or female, doesn't start off with some impressive victories, they will not be major players. So I have hope for Nathan, who made the GPF in his first season, but not much hope for Adam, Max or Jason, who have been waiting for their breakthrough season for years. Adam will inspire us with his late in career comebacks, but he will not be a world or Olympic medalist. Jason will inspire us with his dancing and his happy personality, but he will not be a world or Olympic medalist. Max will have fans of his athletic, masculine style, but he will not get a world medal. They are all quality skaters, but not in the league with Evan, Brian, or even Todd Eldredge, who either won medals or were always in medal contention. But Nathan? If he stays healthy and improves his artistry, he may have a chance in 2018 or definitely 2022.

What's your evidence?

Notice that in his first season on the Grand Prix, Hanyu placed 4th and 7th in his events:

http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs_cr_00010967.htm

Notice that in 2007 Javi placed 28 in Euros and 35 at Worlds.

http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs_cr_00007684.htm

 

[karne]

I wouldn't mind Tom Dickson. With Alexander Johnson back in Minneapolis, there is a spot. Also Dickson is in Colorado Springs. Actually I'd love to see Max get a program from him. He seems to know how to work with different types of skaters.
What about Krall or Allen? Also in Colorado.

And I'll throw in my bold crazy pick: Mozorov?

But it's possible that Max isn't making the most of his talent and that someone like Carroll or BOrser could get more out of him. Or Raf, though I doubt that would happen because Adam..

No! Absolutely not. No Carroll, no Orser, definitely No Artunian, and absolutely 100% NO MOROSOV.

Someone like Christy Krall would probably be suitable - technically minded but with a knowledge of artistry. Or Damon Allen, yes. But definitely not Carroll (I never want Lori Nichol to go anywhere near Max ever again), Orser's stable is full, just absolutely no slimy sleazy greaseball Morozov, and somehow I doubt that Adam would be particularly happy if Max came into Artunian's stable.

 

[Eislauf]

What's your evidence?

Notice that in his first season on the Grand Prix, Hanyu placed 4th and 7th in his events:

http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs_cr_00010967.htm

Notice that in 2007 Javi placed 28 in Euros and 35 at Worlds.

http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs_cr_00007684.htm

Hanyu was 15 years old in his first Grand Prix season, and won Olympic Gold at 19. Hanyu and Jason are the same age now, 21.

Javi was 15 yrs old in 2007 for Euros and Worlds.

 

[eta]

Anyone knows how Jeremy Abbott "ranks" among the top US men, currently it's between Nathan Adam Jason Max (correct me if I'm wrong though)?

 

[ice coverage]

Anyone knows how Jeremy Abbott "ranks" among the top US men, currently it's between Nathan Adam Jason Max (correct me if I'm wrong though)?

Depends what you mean by "it."
Although Jeremy is not competing this season, he has said that he is considering returning to competition in the Olympic season.

How Jeremy would rank among Nathan, Adam, Jason, and Max next season is impossible to say.

The only recent data point we have is that Jeremy's FS narrowly outscored Adam's at the Japan Open in Oct 2016.

http://www.jsfresults.com/non_respo..._top.htm,InterNational/2016-2017/jo/index.htm​

FWIW: IIRC, Adam's FS there was a different program than he now is using. And he still was trying the quad lutz back then.

 

[eta]

Depends what you mean by "it."
Although Jeremy is not competing this season, he has said that he is considering returning to competition in the Olympic season.

How Jeremy would rank among Nathan, Adam, Jason, and Max next season is impossible to say.

The only recent data point we have is that Jeremy's FS narrowly outscored Adam's at the Japan Open in Oct 2016.

http://www.jsfresults.com/non_respo..._top.htm,InterNational/2016-2017/jo/index.htm​

FWIW: IIRC, Adam's FS there was a different program than he now is using. And he still was trying the quad lutz back then.

Thank you, yeah I asked because I saw on his page that Jeremy is going to compete in the 2017-2018 season.

Sorry for being ambiguous, by "it" I meant consistency and scoring potential, so basically his chances of getting on the World/Olympic team.

Looking at that link it seems that his TES BV is a bit low relatively...

 

[mrrice]

No! Absolutely not. No Carroll, no Orser, definitely No Artunian, and absolutely 100% NO MOROSOV.

Someone like Christy Krall would probably be suitable - technically minded but with a knowledge of artistry. Or Damon Allen, yes. But definitely not Carroll (I never want Lori Nichol to go anywhere near Max ever again), Orser's stable is full, just absolutely no slimy sleazy greaseball Morozov, and somehow I doubt that Adam would be particularly happy if Max came into Artunian's stable.

I agree with this comment. Especially the mention of Christy Krall and Damon Allen. As you all know, Joshua was a skater I followed from his Junior Career until his unfortunate early retirement. They're a package deal and they wont have to "Hire Out" to get Max the programs he needs to regain his Title.

 

[padme21]

I'm so proud of Nathan Chen for going out there and skating with such confidence! Skating after Yuzuru Hanyu is no easy feat! I love both Nathan's SP and FS! Just so you know I'm a Hanyu and Jason Brown fan. Have been a fan of both skaters for years. I was crushed for Jason as I had hoped to see him and Nathan in the GPF. Oh well at least I got Nathan. Hopefully Jason will regroup for US Nationals. In my opinion there's nothing wrong with seeing Nathan as the future of US men's figure skating. He's young and has lots of room to grow. I see Nathan Chen, Vincent Zhou, and Tomoki Hiwatashi as the future of US men's figure skating.

 

[ice coverage]

Thank you, yeah I asked because I saw on his page that Jeremy is going to compete in the 2017-2018 season.

Sorry for being ambiguous, by "it" I meant consistency and scoring potential, so basically his chances of getting on the World/Olympic team.

Looking at that link it seems that his TES BV is a bit low relatively...

Jeremy had said (I'm paraphrasing) that he knows he would need to increase his technical content to be competitive next season.
I'm too lazy right now to look up the article, and I forget whether he said he would need "quads" (plural) or "a quad." In any case, he does not expect to get by without at least one.

 

[eta]

Jeremy had said (I'm paraphrasing) that he knows he would need to increase his technical content to be competitive next season.
I'm too lazy right now to look up the article, and I forget whether he said he would need "quads" (plural) or "a quad." In any case, he does not expect to get by without at least one.

Thank you!

 

[Tavi...]

Hanyu was 15 years old in his first Grand Prix season, and won Olympic Gold at 19. Hanyu and Jason are the same age now, 21.

Javi was 15 yrs old in 2007 for Euros and Worlds.

Thanks for the information. But all Poodlepal said was, "I would say that if anyone, male or female, doesn't start off with some impressive victories, they will not be major players." There was no caveat that the same rules don't apply if you make your international debut at 15.

My perspective, which seems to be quite different to yours and Poodlepal's, is that while Hanyu and Jason are the same chronological age, their talents are very different. People mature at different rates, and Jason is physically a late bloomer.

Quite frankly, regardless of how early he started out, Javi is a great example of someone who took a long time to grow into his talent, and Jason's accomplishments at similar ages compare favorably to Javi's. Javi placed 14th at his first Olympics (2010); Jason placed 9th (2014). Javi was in his third season when he went; Jason was a first year senior; both, like Hanyu, were 19.

Similarly, Jason has only been to Worlds once, in 2015, his second senior season; he was 20 and placed fourth. By the time Javi was 20 (2011) he was on his 5th trip to Worlds; he placed 10th; when he won in 2015, he was 24. Hanyu was 17 and took Bronze on his first trip to Worlds, but he'd already been senior for a couple of seasons.

I do agree that because guys are now including more and harder quads in their programs, Jason is at a disadvantage. But because it's only really this year that he's developed an adult body, I think it's too soon to write him off. You may disagree.

 

[Eislauf]

Thanks for the information. But all Poodlepal said was, "I would say that if anyone, male or female, doesn't start off with some impressive victories, they will not be major players." There was no caveat that the same rules don't apply if you make your international debut at 15.

My perspective, which seems to be quite different to yours and Poodlepal's, is that while Hanyu and Jason are the same chronological age, their talents are very different. People mature at different rates, and Jason is physically a late bloomer.

Quite frankly, regardless of how early he started out, Javi is a great example of someone who took a long time to grow into his talent, and Jason's accomplishments at similar ages compare favorably to Javi's. Javi placed 14th at his first Olympics (2010); Jason placed 9th (2014). Javi was in his third season when he went; Jason was a first year senior; both, like Hanyu, were 19.

Similarly, Jason has only been to Worlds once, in 2015, his second senior season; he was 20 and placed fourth. By the time Javi was 20 (2011) he was on his 5th trip to Worlds; he placed 10th; when he won in 2015, he was 24. Hanyu was 17 and took Bronze on his first trip to Worlds, but he'd already been senior for a couple of seasons.

I do agree that because guys are now including more and harder quads in their programs, Jason is at a disadvantage. But because it's only really this year that he's developed an adult body, I think it's too soon to write him off. You may disagree.

I'm not talking about whether a skater is physically mature for his age; I'm talking about how advanced a skater is, skill-wise, for his age. You seem to be conflating biological maturity with skill level.

Also, imho Jason has never looked like a biological late bloomer; if anything he's had an adult-type physique for the last two years or so - strong, fit, muscular.

I'm also not writing him off. I simply wonder whether his chance for international success may be getting slimmer, given the ever-growing quad arsenal of several of his peers. I hope that's not the case, but in a year when the first quad loop and quad flip were successfully landed (and ratified) in competition, the technical "norm" for the world's top skaters does indeed seem to be ratcheting higher at a fairly quick rate.

 

[MIM]

Nathan

Strongly disagree with people claim Nathan is just a jumper and lacks musicality, artistry, etc.
for one, go ahead and watch his recent NHK ex.
It it exactly his artistic potential that make me think he is a world-champion-level raw diamond, really a gift to US man's skating.
And I am confident that Nathan's skating and artistry will speak for itself in the future regardles s what people say for now.

@yyyskate, I agree with you Nathan has great artistry as we saw in his EX, SP. And he can land 4 different quads.
His career is at the very interesting and exciting point.

Having said that, his free program is in the making.
First, he has to skate his CHSQ and STSQ at the level he does in the SP and EX.
Second, he needs to move at least one quad into the second half to balance the program.
Third, he can make in-between the quads more interesting than being too brief.
Last but most importantly, he has to be INJURY FREE!!!

I am such a fan of Nathan and just excited to see his talent explode this season.

I have followed Nathan since his novice days too and I think that some people who would also hold my view that they miss the spunk he had back then -- maybe it came cause of his youth. I also miss the more intricate choreography he had as a junior.

So I'd like to think I have a more nuanced viewpoint then that he's just a jumper.

I missed his junior years especially watching his last year FP. But, I think he has turned around this year (thanks to Zueva?)

Nathan is giving some face....channeling Ashley Wagner.
Sloppy landings on a few of those jumps.

Tara says the "quality of his skating needs to come up a little bit."
Johnny say he needs to "point his toes" and that would help him choreographically -- I agree. Doesn't he have ballet training?

I think one thing I'd like to see is that he have a little more variation in his movements. Basically he's pretty much doing his whole skate upright. He's really using a lot of upper body movements and his arms.

I agree that he skated well considering he had to go after Yuzuru.

I think the toe point would be that little polish that would really enhance the entire package. He actually has much better toe point in his Chopin FS from the 2014-2015 season (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5h0sebFPGo) and I've seen some pretty nice turnout in some of his other junior programs.

I agree that he needs some more sharp movements to the staccato parts of the music. But it's going to take some work before we see a bit of fluidity/variation of movement. For his ballet training, he isn't the most flexible skater -- so it does make it more challenging.

The face!!!
Seeing his weak Camel spin (arabesque) position, I am concerned that his sagging free leg has to do with the hip injury he had a surgery on. His Chopin piece two seasons ago certainly shows better position.
I understand the need for lots of upright stance in between the quads, at this point. But his CHSQ, which should have been more dynamic to make up rather simple beginning half, is similarly lacking variety of movement. My guess is he is saving some stamina for the explosive second half. But a little more diversity would be nice for the entire program.

Yeah, I can't remember the last time I heard him outloud. It's just a reminder our little Nathan has grown up. It's a little sad but I'm so proud of him.

Me, too. @Frida, have you watched his interview with TSL last year? :

 

[MIM]

Max

Revisionist history is well underway. Max was doing both 4T and 4S in 2013-2014 - and oh, didn't we ever hear all about it, that he wasn't doing enough choreography because he was focusing on the jumps too much...maybe Max was just a few years too early? Or just not cutesy enough.

Oh come on, Mrs P, you KNOW better than this. I won't have this revisionist history, not when he's spent the last four years getting attacked from every angle for the very things that Chen is now getting a free ride on.

Max is kind of eldest brother. How hard I had to fight with my parents for the late night curfew, going travel with friends, etc..... and my sister and brother gets a free ride on.

No! Absolutely not. No Carroll, no Orser, definitely No Artunian, and absolutely 100% NO MOROSOV.

Someone like Christy Krall would probably be suitable - technically minded but with a knowledge of artistry. Or Damon Allen, yes. But definitely not Carroll (I never want Lori Nichol to go anywhere near Max ever again), Orser's stable is full, just absolutely no slimy sleazy greaseball Morozov, and somehow I doubt that Adam would be particularly happy if Max came into Artunian's stable.

I agree! No Morosov! Morosov is going to make Max like Miki.
Not that I dislike Miki, but her chance to develop to be an artist was destroyed under his coaching, IMO. I think Morosov is only good for skaters who are stuck in their established career(i.e.Ten, W/P) I would consider him for Gracie though...

I want to have Max in the nurturing environment that can develop his artistry/style and instill confidence to be a performer.

I watched closely his FP this year. There are so many moments he can excite the crowds. But, he is a type of skater that loses confidence/fire when making mistakes on jumps.

Per Patrick's interview on Marina, Marina is like a mind reader and controller in some extent. I think Marina can be useful for him as a mind coach and dance coach. And he can have a separate technical coach like Chen. For a technical coach, he would need someone who can make special adjustment for his athletic body type. Listening to TSL, disagreeing with their opinions on his program though, if that is something TomZ cannot address, resulting in technical stagnancy, he has to seek new coach immediately.

I am not familiar with coach Krall except he was Patrick's old coach.

 

[MIM]

Jason

They're showing Jason's skate right now on NBC and Tara and Johnny are actually being quite kind -- they are saying he needs the quad and said his skate are disappointed. Tara said a ton of nice things. "I get lost in his skating" "When skaters make one or two mistakes, they usually let the program go....but Jason doesn't. I'm still invested in this piece." Johnny is more critical, but that's nothing new, lol.

:thumbsup: He is one of very very few skaters who doesn't do that.

I think Jason has other unique qualities, such as an inherit charisma that enables him to to connect with the audience. People dismiss it as "performance ability" but anyone that has taken any sort of stage class knows that it is a skill that takes time to develop and some people never get to a high level. He's also a really good competitor -- who can take bad experiences and learn from them quickly -- he went from falling on his 3As at U.S. Nationals to hitting them all at Jr. Worlds and winning the FS with a record score that stuck for a season and a half. He's also generally well-trained and prepared for competitions. These are things that don't really directly contribute to base value and doesn't get the buzz, but when you add it up and things align --it's clear why Jason has outlasted a lot of his competitors as the years gone by.

I think MIM has pointed this out in an earlier post --that the longtail approach that Jason and his team have adopted can be extremely frustrating because there's a lot of short-term losses while you're waiting for things to come together. But those same unique qualities, as you pointed out, DOES help him while he waits for things to gel and for the technical aspect to catch up with the rest of his skating. He obviously got the triple loop and the rest of his non-Axel triples (he had them a year later in juniors). And while highly inconsistent at first he got the 3A and until this competition was actually doing pretty well with it this season -- consider that his 3A< in the FS was the first one of the entire season---he couldn't say that a year ago. So yeah, so goes the quad and the trajectory is likely to be similar. Does he need it -- YES. Is he still behind the top men technically -- yes as far as jumps.

The question seems to be whether Jason wins out in the long-run by having a firm foundation on the non-jumping side while he's working on the jumps while Nathan seems to be building a strong technical arsenal and waiting to see how much he can integrate additional transitions/choreography/etc. Most will assume Nathan would more likely to win. But really, for me, it's just simply two different strategies and I don't think it's a given which strategy wins out more.

Thank you for putting my words so eloquently.
I watched Jason's program @TDF several times and blown away every time, especially in the STSQ, where he does lunge>rocker(?)>counter>bracket>developpe>penche>turn(?)>loop turn(?)>...>etc. beautifully controlled with a speed and fluidity. I mean who does that!!?? John Curry?
Jason is so unique that he speaks language that is obsolete in today's figure skating. It is truly inspiring that he creates his own path against the trend. Also, it is refreshing to hear his competitive side in mastering his 3Lo and 3A, which I did not know before.

My only wish is that he tries other choreographers. He is still a rough diamond in terms of program repertoire. I want him to explore outside his current circle and work with other talents who can broaden his artistic vision, possibly that can be a breakthrough for his technical elements, too.


- (?) I am not good at figure skating glossary and even worse at recognizing them,,,
- I don't follow basketball at all. I saw Le Bron in a HGTV show with Nicole Curtis... He seems very nice guy... sorry

 

[karne]

Max is kind of eldest brother. How hard I had to fight with my parents for the late night curfew, going travel with friends, etc..... and my sister and brother gets a free ride on.

As an eldest child myself, this speaks to me - and it makes perfect sense.

I want to have Max in the nurturing environment that can develop his artistry/style and instill confidence to be a performer.

...

I am not familiar with coach Krall except he was Patrick's old coach.

Krall/Allen was Joshua's coaching team after he left Z. Together they nurtured Joshua's flagging confidence and his skating until he felt confident enough not just to create his own programs, but perform them with such heartbreaking beauty...even if Max may not be capable of that sort of thing (creating a competitive program himself), a nurturing pair of coaches could be good for him.

 

[Mrs. P]

My only wish is that he tries other choreographers. He is still a rough diamond in terms of program repertoire. I want him to explore outside his current circle and work with other talents who can broaden his artistic vision, possibly that can be a breakthrough for his technical elements, too.


- (?) I am not good at figure skating glossary and even worse at recognizing them,,,
- I don't follow basketball at all. I saw Le Bron in a HGTV show with Nicole Curtis... He seems very nice guy... sorry

I wouldn't mine seeing what another choreogoher would do. I think that's going to come as Jason takes more ownership of his skating. He's started to show signs of this season with his packaging choices.

I'd love to see a Peter Tchernyshev program on him. Maybe Tom Dickson or Steph Lambiel. I think all three are capable of doing programs that suits a skater's style while expanding their range. I'd throw in Massimo Scali on my wish list too. And Charlie White -- he would make Jason the most awesome step sequences (and also a major awesome music cut person -- he did all the music cuts toward the later part of his career with Meryl Davis)!! I've loved his work for Mura and I think he could do even more with Jason, who exhibits similar qualities to ice dancers -- he could give Maia Shibutani a run for her money in posture and extension. From my iOS keyboard to Jason's ears...

 

[ice coverage]

... Also I haven't heard Nathan talk -- he has a real deep voice. That was a bit surprising.

Enjoyable mini-video of Nathan :luv17: with a two-fer: his deep voice combined with his best Vanna White impersonation .

Plus we get to see and hear his sidekicks Keiji and Yuzu.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BNUJvenBGTR/?taken-by=johnwilsonblades (Nov 27)​

John Wilson Blades ain't no dummies. They know a good social media marketing opportunity when they see one.

---

.... Per Patrick's interview on Marina, Marina is like a mind reader and controller in some extent. I think Marina can be useful for him as a mind coach and dance coach. And he can have a separate technical coach like Chen. For a technical coach, he would need someone who can make special adjustment for his athletic body type. Listening to TSL, disagreeing with their opinions on his program though, if that is something TomZ cannot address, resulting in technical stagnancy, he has to seek new coach immediately. ...

I hope Max will stay as far away as possible from MZ.
(I'm not making a judgment on her coaching ability. Just don't want him anywhere near her.)

---

ETA:

Today USFS filled in the Golden Spin entries on its assignments chart.

http://usfigureskating.org/story?id=84032&menu=TeamUSA​

Only two men: Dolensky, Zhou.

As expected, Rippon is not listed, after he qualified for the GPF.
No third man on the USFS list, although the ISU page (as of Nov 22) listed Alex Johnson as a sub.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat00028796.htm​